Jake McKibbin

Great minds, or fools seldom differing? I'm not sure if Chace is just out for reach on this one, especially given megill isn't lock down in the mold of a Hader or Williams. He is prone to home run issues when the fastball is slightly off or he loses feel for the curveball, but I do think he'll get a fairly solid package back. If Chace was available then absolutely, but I'd imagine you'd maybe only get two players back in that instance if he was. Chace's three strong pitches, with a really impressive fastball, and the uptick in control at the end of 2024 may put him out of reach for relief arm, but he would be an impressive return

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images The Brewers have struggled to begin the season, with a relatively easy schedule in April followed by a shocking offensive downturn in May. The Brewers front office is capable of fixing such glaring problems as the rotation and the left side of their infield, but the rest of the team isn't giving them much inspiration to do so. It may be that the Brewers will have to take opportunities that help them in future seasons this July, rather than just looking to success in 2025. The Phillies were dealt a shocking blow on Sunday, when José Alvarado tested positive for exogenous testosterone. Despite Alvarado's stellar performance this year, the Phils had already had some trouble in the back end of their pen. Still at 27-18 and sitting pretty to be in contention come October once again, they'll know the importance of having a lockdown relief corps, especially with the Braves surging somewhat back into contention after a sluggish start. Alvarado can't pitch for them if and when they do reach the playoffs, either, and the Phillies' focus is very much on what happens if and when they get that far. They want a World Series run, and that means having an October-ready bullpen—a task that just got much taller. Trevor Megill's devastating fastball and shutdown knuckle-curveball would fit on any postseason roster. Under control through 2027, Megill would come at a cost, but the struggles of Jordan Romano and Alvarado's banishment mean the Phillies need to make a move. They might need to make more than one. Megill is a Stuff+ darling who has found his command again in recent outings on the fastball. When both pitches are firing, he's one of the toughest closers in baseball. The Brewers may look to move Nick Mears toward a closing role of his own, as Mears has made strong strides thus far in 2025 (and is also under team control through 2027). Milwaukee could reinforce their own bullpen with the returns of DL Hall and Aaron Ashby, alongside the newly added Easton McGee and Rob Zastryzny. In return, the Brewers would (as always) be looking for long-term, controllable talent. You're not going to get a top prospect for any non-superstar reliever, regardless of years of control, but you can get some exciting upside. The Phillies farm system is top-heavy, with some strong prospects in their top five or six but a steeper decline after the top 10 than you would like. I'd propose a package involving one of two high-upside pitchers and an exciting second-rounder from 2024. Griffin Burkholder is the Phillies' seventh-ranked prospect, per Baseball America, with electric speed that allows him to play all three outfield positions well and an average hit/power combination. He makes good swing decisions, and there's a suspicion that as he ages (currently, he's just 19 in Low A), Burkholder could develop above-average power. With a solid profile and a slightly overslot bonus when he signed in 2024, Burkholder may be tough to pry away from the Phillies, but he should be front and center for the Brewers, given his distance from the big leagues and their desire for some additional outfield talent in their farm system. His capabilities in the field, strong swing decisions and potential upside would fit right in with the Brewers philosophy. Think of him, perhaps, as a replacement for Yophery Rodriguez. Alex McFarlane is making his way back from Tommy John surgery, having added 10-15 pounds of muscle that the Phillies hope can help him take steps forward in the command department. Similar (in some ways) to Jacob Misiorowski, McFarlane's fastball is 70-grade per MLB pipeline and touches triple digits, with good sink. He has a legitimate three-pitch mix, with a low arm slot and the potential to get lots of whiffs from an upper-80s slider (54% whiff rate in 2023) and a splitter that possesses good arm-side movement and drop. Finally, Wen-Hui Pan is a 22-year-old out of Taiwan, with an electric fastball, a fantastic splitter and a solid slider. He's currently on the injured list with Tommy John surgery, but that hasn't halted the Brewers in the past—as we saw with Coleman Crow. His fastball averaged 96.7 mph when last he was on the mound, while the splitter had a 63% whiff rate in 2024. The slider looked better as the year went on. Pan has the ability to be a high-leverage relief arm when healthy, a scenario in which splitters and their ground ball rates are incredibly valuable to accompany the high swing-and-miss rates his three-pitch arsenal should support. If the Brewers are truly looking to the future, a trade like this could make sense in a variety of ways for a team in need of 40-man roster spots and with ample depth in the bullpen ranks. Burkholder would be a suitable headliner, despite his slow start in 2025, and could really add to the strength of the Brewers' lower minor leagues. Meanwhile, returning a high upside arm is always of value. If the Brewers wanted someone hotter than Burkholder, the other option is a third baseman at Low A called Aroon Escobar. Escobar is slashing .328/.426/.573 early this season, with tons of red on his Statcast page across all areas. Good contact, good plate discipline and solid exit velocities may make him enticing, although the Brewers have third basemen all over their system, especially at Low A. Would you consider trading Trevor Megill to the Phillies? If so, who would you want in return? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

I really hope that's not the reason, or he'll be facing a lot of high and tights when he reaches the majors. Completely understandable reaction gives his history, but I really hope he can conquer those demons or he may never reach what he's capable of

Pratt is having real trouble with this slider

That was perhaps the most awkward at bat I've seen from Pratt. Really didn't seem able to pick up the pitch with two on, no outs. Two big chases v the slider, then Wilken had two nice fastballs to hit that he took before whiffing on an in zone slider

I guess you never know if he's trying to make some swing changes and we're seeing the in between bit where everything goes to pot. That's maybe my only reservation with it being a month and a half

Very much so. He should still be rangey as first basemen go, but whole some issues were to be expected the lack of home run production is slightly concerning. Like we probably should have expected he'd face issues at a point with his zone coverage but not to this extent in Low A

The mudcats did have a chance to give Bitonti an opportunity at third base as a replacement for Peña but have done a few switcheroos to keep him at first base. I'm guessing they don't see him at third going forward

Peña had a horrible looking collision at first, I THINK he may have caught an elbow to the face and is now being replaced by bitonti. I think it'll be concussion checks but hopefully nothing more sinister.

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images The mental acuity to compete day in and day out is a difficult mindset to attain. A 162-game season. 6,170 plate appearances in the batter's box. 6,076 hitters faced down on the mound. The Brewers created success in 2024 by being more involved in each and every one of those plate appearances than any other team in baseball. It's easy to say, and far harder to demonstrate with the intensity that is required from one plate appearance to the next and the myriad of decisions each of those plate appearances requires. Pat Murphy said it best, last season they got off to a hot start (assisted by some aggressive management on his part) and rode that wave through to October. They had some down periods throughout the season, but their ability to continually bounce back and avoid prolonged stretches of losing, poor baseball was key to their success last season. An initial injection of confidence made all the difference, enabling the team to proceed with confidence that their approach would continue to pay off in the long run. When a team lacks confidence, every decision made on each of those thousands of plate appearances becomes second-guessed, creating an insular "don't make mistakes" mentality. The problem is, from a psychological standpoint, the brain doesn't process negatives in such internal thoughts, making you more prone to making the aforementioned errors. The Brewers' success is predicated on their ability to maintain maximum intensity from one play to the next without overexerting that intensity to the point of overthinking the results. It requires an enjoyment of the grind, one that comes from knowing you're outworking your counterpart and succeeding because of it. It's an attitude the Brewers don't seem to have had, often appearing lethargic or overburdened, rather than free, focused, and aggressive in the same style they were at their peak in 2024. If you've read my previous writings, you may have come across my mention of the carrot-and-stick approach. One of the key things to being a manager is to understand the needs of your players and which approach will get the best out of them. Some players need a kick in the backside, others need an arm around the shoulder, and some supportive words, but each individual will feel these needs differently. In an ideal world, each player would be able to self-motivate; however, in practice, that isn't the case. It's a point where Pat Murphy will certainly earn his salt. He has a diverse, young group of players, with one of their pivotal leaders of 2024 absent. Perhaps the return of Brandon Woodruff or an injection of confidence could create the spark that helps them find that balance, but how Murphy manages his players with the carrot and the stick will be fascinating to observe. We've already seen some of the latter in his treatment of Sal Frelick, Tobias Myers, and Caleb Durbin. The tone in the most recent meeting belied more confidence and optimism. How he manages the next few weeks will go a long way in determining the course of the Brewers' season. If he can get them back to enjoying the individual battles and out of their heads, there is time to turn this season around. There's enough talent in this team to create their success rather than wait for a lucky stretch of baseball, and enough quality to seize the bull by the horns. After a potentially momentum-setting win against the Guardians on Wednesday night, the home series against the Twins feels like an opportunity to put down a marker. View full article

Birchard looking sharp and locating nicely through the first two innings. Got a little lucky on a hanging breaker, but a superb play by Daniel Guilarte bailed him out. Impressive continuance of the starting pitching dominance of recent days

ACL Brewers with Quero catching once more, perhaps more than we expected in the early stages Kevin Ereu has certainly struggled but the rest of that lineup has MASHED

Perfect BA, apparently Ethan Dorchies has seen a solid velo bump. Up from sitting 91 to sitting 95 mph with impressive horizontal movement on his fastball Also mention for Jose Anderson and has strike zone recognition plus the pull side lift he generates

Posts like this are just why I write, and I really appreciate the compliment! I completely agree, the balance here is much more in that middle ground. Yes he has changed to become more defensive in a two stroke count, but I still think the 107-108 mph EV's are in there if he can find the timing when he gambles on a mistake pitch in a hitters count. Some of the foul balls he's hit have been absolutely roped

Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images Sal Frelick is a gritty, fiery competitor—the type of individual who can be a sparkplug for a struggling team. On Wednesday afternoon in Cleveland, Frelick was just that, launching a home run over 400 feet and returning to the dugout all guns blazing. The emotional energy he plays with is second to none, but he came into this year knowing that he needed to impact the ball with more of that intensity. Having provided a tantalizing glimpse of his capability in Game 3 of last year's Wild Card Series, there was hope that Frelick might try and lean into that more this season. So far, it seems he's attempting to do just that. While his Baseball Savant page still doesn't blush with the quality of contact metrics, Frelick is averaging 86.1 mph on his batted balls (up 3 mph on 2204), and boasts a hard-hit rate up from 19.5% to 30.3% and a bat speed up from 66.3 mph to 68 mph. He's doing this with a similar set of changes to the ones made by Brice Turang this offseason. Frelick's batting stance is less spread out, in an effort to gain more power from his legs and torso. His feet are 3 inches closer together, while he's also opened up his stance to try and pull the ball more frequently. His pull rate is up from 29.3% to 40% in 2025, but it's come at the cost (early on) of an increase in ground balls. The changes he's made are working, but they aren't being maximized yet. He's swinging harder and hitting the ball harder, but there are signs he's still finding some timing issues when he does swing fast. The graph below shows that in 2025, Frelick is swinging the bat at speeds of 75-80 mph noticeably more often, while avoiding those uncomfortable swings in the 55-60 mph bat speed range almost entirely. Frelick spoke about this in spring training, naming a desire to see balls he can attack and do damage on early in counts while still preserving his essence as a hitter in putting balls in play and avoiding strikeouts. Plate discipline and contact skills will always be his bread and butter, but it's also safe to say that Frelick's timing on his efforts to do damage isn't quite there. The graph above does highlight a similar overall range of bat speeds, just with an increase in the number of fast swings when he feels he can hone in on a mistake. He might not be picking his spots well enough yet, though. So far this season, Frelick has swung the bat over 73 mph on 22 occasions. Of those, he's put the ball in play six times, and only one had an expected ISO of over .100, meaning the expected extra-base hits output just isn't there. Only once did he have an expected batting average over .220. In layman's terms, Sal Frelick isn't managing to marry increased offensive output with the increased violence of the swing. Let's take a look at some of the higher bat speeds he's produced to see why that may be: vs. Carson Spiers 4/5/25 - 82.5 mph eUxXVkdfWGw0TUFRPT1fRGxSVkFBQUNVd0lBQ2xvQ1hnQUhBMUpXQUFNQlZsQUFVVkFEVlFVR0NBcFRBUU1I (1).mp4 Frelick's biggest bat speed of the year, he saw this pitch from Carson Spiers in a 1-0 count and gambled heavily on a four-seam/sinker over the heart of the plate. Frelick was caught miles in front of the pitch, and remember, Spiers uses his cutter quite frequently. It's absolutely fine for Frelick to gamble in hitter's counts and get caught out in front—that's a tradeoff he's admitted to accepting—but this may become a common theme. Frelick was evidently feeling good in that series against the Royals, following up the next day with two more swings in excess of 78 mph. Still, though, he didn't quite time them up. Michael Lorenzen 4/1/25 - 77.8 mph MTZXMjhfWGw0TUFRPT1fVndoWkFWUUFYd3NBQ3dCUlhnQUhDRkJRQUZoUlVBVUFBMWNHQndWUkJ3TlFVd0VE.mp4 Here we can see Frelick gambling on a four seam fastball, and it comes in right over the middle of the plate. Yet again, he's trying to pull the ball, but he gets far underneath the ball and misses a premium chance to do some damage. We have one more example; Keider Montero 4/16/25 - 77.8 mph NHlXcmpfWGw0TUFRPT1fVTFWUlhGUUJBMVFBRDFVQlZBQUhCMVVGQUFBR0FBUUFDMVFGVkZJQUNBdFNWbFpS.mp4 Here again, Frelick gets a pitch over the heart of the plate to drive. It's a non-fastball, so perhaps some leeway could be granted here, but again, he seems to recognize and adjust to that—before getting caught out in front once more and rolling over a ball about as much as anyone can roll over any pitch. Frelick is entirely correct in his approach. He should be trying to access the pull side when he's looking to do damage, and he should be targeting these specific pitches. His issue, as it was early in the season, is that he's been getting caught out in front. Perhaps adjusting to the increased bat speed, he just hasn't quite found his timing. He managed to on Wednesday afternoon, on a swing of 72.9 mph (his previous home run came on a 69 mph swing). If he can lock into the feel of squaring up balls with the higher bat speeds as consistently and effectively as he does at the lower end of his spectrum, there is most certainly more juice in Frelick's bat. He just needs to find that sweet spot. Is the summer of Sal to become a real thing? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Brewers prospect analysis: Is Brock Wilken's breakout legitimate? I would encourage anyone thinking about this to se Curt Hogg's latest on him. The slider down and away is a chess game, if he can continue developing and doing damage to right center against it when they leave it in zone, that's a big win. But it all comes down to can he lay off the good ones. Not the finished product yet, and may get a cup of coffee if he's firing and the Brewers are out of contention in September but otherwise I'd let the development take its natural course. Triple A, and the more experienced, command focused pitchers there could be a barrier but time will tell.

The problem is if Perkins comes up, that would require Daz Cameron to be DFA'd and potentially lost. If that happened, they wouldn't want Hall/Herron to be the reserves. Collins should be safe for now

Completely. It did look an amazing shape to begin with, but his arm angle has risen from where it was, plus he was sitting 96-97 mph with 16017" of IVB from a funky angle when he got that grade. I think (and this is purely from recall) that some scouts were very high on the fastball based on results, others uncertain and more in the above average camp? Or there were a few questions about that grade at least. If he can remotely hold that shape he showed in the first and second innings, we're cooking. If not... it just won't function as starter

Couple of nuggets on Hall's start, early on the fastball looked excellent, sitting 94-95 and at one point topping 20" of induced vertical break. that's big time rising action. It did fade a little in the third inning, dropping down to the 91-92 mph range (some were misclassified as sinkers too) but on the whole a nice start for him in terms of pitch shapes. He was finding his groove with command, and threw everything in his arsenal with the apparent goal of just testing his stuff and command that targeting outs. You can see the rolling stuff+ from TJstats dip off quite severely in the third inning, but I've never seen Hall with a grade on the fastball as high as 108 over any rolling sample. If he can build up some stamina and longevity, this is the arm we hoped for in the Burnes trade. The questions odes remain whether this will dip if he's stretched out to go 70+ pitches, but certainly an encouraging start from a stuff perspective on the fastball which seems so key to his fortunes The bad news, the slider and curveball velocity were down by a few ticks. Hopefuly we'll see these sharpen up as he builds up, remember he didn't have a spring training and has been trying to replicate that in Arizona.

Image courtesy of © David Richard-Imagn Images Quinn Priester is a fascinating figure. A former top prospect with the Pittsburgh Pirates who hasn't yet found success in the major leagues, he also presents an interesting profile. Priester had pitched almost 100 innings in the majors before joining the Brewers, recording just 69 strikeouts and a whopping 41 walks in that time. He had an ERA of 6.23. Nonetheless, the Brewers felt comfortable trading one of the organization's top 10 prospects (Yophery Rodriguez); the 33rd pick in the 2025 MLB Draft; and their fifth-round pick from last year, pitcher John Holobetz, to get ahold of Priester. On the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel Brewers podcast with host JR Radcliffe, guest and Brewers Weekly host Dom Cotroneo indicated the Brewers weren't as high on Rodriguez as some of the prospect rankings might suggest, but even so, that's a substantial outlay for a player yet to even establish himself as a bona fide big-league hurler. So what exactly did the Brewers see in Priester? Was it the improvements made within the Red Sox organization? Did they see some mechanical issues they felt they could smooth over, to unlock further potential? Let's take a look: The Red Sox Pitching Lab The Boston Red Sox acquired Priester for another former first-round pick, Nick Yorke, in 2024. Their primary focus was to add velocity to his fastballs, and they succeeded in doing so during the offseason: During the spring, that velocity showed up, adding a tick and a half to his entire arsenal—with corresponding boosts to his Stuff+ grades. The sinker, his primary pitch, is the most important beneficiary. There was also lots of talk about Priester developing a new cutter, but actually, it seems like more of a classification change from what was previously a very straight four-seam fastball. Since the trade, the Brewers have slowly reduced the cutter usage, leaning heavily on the sinker and its ground ball tendencies. They've made it clear that sinker is one of the main reasons for their interest in Priester, and I'll get to why in a moment. Comparing Priester's velocity in Triple A with the Red Sox to his more recent numbers, it seems the Red Sox also saw the cutter as more of a "get off the sinker" offering than a primary fastball. Whatever the reason, the velocity has steadily come back to the sort of range Priester was roaming in during 2023-24. Without that added gas, what exactly do the Brewers find so attractive? Is the sinker better than advertised? The cutter has been crushed, and they've adapted, primarily using the sinker and slider in recent starts (which have been his best)—as Brewer Fanatic beat reporter Jack Stern pointed out last night: The slider has returned some solid whiff rates, but the sinker, not so much. he hasn't been locating it well to get ahead in the count, and by Stuff+ metrics, it doesn't grade out well. Why, then, do the Brewers love it? Well, if you listened to the Brewer Fanatic Podcast last week, you may have a hint: The Dead Zone Jeremy Maschino has recently compiled a model that looks at the spin rate, direction and Magnus acceleration of a pitch. He's been able to assess the expected Magnus effect and movement of a pitch based on release point, extension, pitch type and initial trajectory, and use that as a basis to compare with the actual Magnus effect and movement of the pitch. A dead-zone pitch would be one that moves exactly as expected. To use Jeremy's words: I'll leave the nerdiness behind now. In this case, Quinn Priester's sinker is an absolute outlier: The shaded circles are the expected movement profile, while the clear circles are the actual movement. His sinker drops 3.6 ft/sec more than expected, giving him an extremely high possibility of keeping the ball on the ground if he can command it effectively. He also gets some additional drop on his gyro slider—another reason why Priester has a ground ball rate of 57.6%, something that should play up with the Brewers' stout defensive middle infield. There are two limiting factors for Priester at this point. His command, and the lack of a third pitch. There is, however, a blueprint for shoring up those weaknesses in a similar pitcher, and he's an elite arm. Is Logan Webb A Basis For Comparison? Logan Webb has a lower arm angle, but the expected movement on his sinker is similar to Priester's. He gets a little more added drop on the offering, but overall, you can see the potential here. The differentiating factors between Webb and hurlers like Priester are the very ones we named above: he's found a good third pitch, and he commands his whole arsenal well. Webb has perhaps the best command in the major leagues, pounding the strike zone with both his sinker and his sweeper to great effect. He can live in the heart of the zone with his sinker, unlike Priester, because of how his sweeper and changeup combine to keep hitters off balance, Both of those offerings generate strong whiff rates. A pitcher whose primary fastball is a sinker often finds a sweeper easier to pick up, due to the natural arm angle many sinkerballers throw from. That's also a reason why Logan Webb's induced vertical break on his sinker is a lot lower than Priester's, despite similar results. With Priester's higher arm slot, it could be argued that his slider is a viable alternative to the sweeper that Webb possesses, generating even slightly higher swing-and-miss rates (although he doesn't hit the strike zone as often). The big difference, then, is the changeup. If well-located, the changeup can coexist very well with the sinker, tunneling off it with similar initial trajectories but different speeds and eventual movement. The combination of the two leaves hitters in two minds, no longer able to sit on the fastball so easily, and can generate good chase and whiff rates as a result. The change is a fantastic put-away pitch for Webb, something Priester could certainly use (given his low strikeout rate). More importantly, it might mean he wouldn't have to nibble the edges of the strike zone, and could attack hitters more directly. The problem with Priester's changeup is the inconsistent delivery. At times, he's able to garner some really effective late drop on the pitch—more than expected, given the release, which suggests he's highly capable of throwing a strong off-speed pitch. There are other times, though, when it comes out hard and flat, with minimal break, and that's liable to run into damage. If he gets it right, you can see how far out in front the hitters are when targeting his sinker but getting the change: OTdXUmdfWGw0TUFRPT1fRGxCUkFWVUdVUVlBV2xFRlZBQUhCQWNBQUFOVVZWWUFCRlJVVVFJRFZ3UldVUUVG.mp4 So far, the movement is inconsistent, and Priester struggles both to kill spin and to sustain a sound differential between the velocities of his heater and his changeup. If he can eventually shore those weaknesses up, though, he could start using the whole zone better and give left-handed batters a much harder time. I mention this because left-handers crush Priester, with a .400 on-base percentage and .509 slugging average in 2025. Having that third offering that either allows his sinker to start on the inner third or middle of the plate and bore onto the outer third more effectively, or a slider that can generate called strikes at the bottom of the zone, could transform how Priester's pitch mix plays. Webb is just one template on whom the Brewers could model a remade Priester. One way or another, he needs to make some changes, but the trail he might follow has already been blazed. Many thanks to Thomas Nestico and Jeremy Maschino for allowing me to use their models. If you're a stats nerd like me, their subscriptions are entirely worthwhile via Patreon, at TJStats and Pitchprofiler. What do you think of the comparison for Logan Webb? Can you see the similarities in the profile? Or is it further away than one capable pitch in his arsenal? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Even more impressive, Mercedes home run was at least to a bona fide big name bat in that class. Emil Morales has an 1.169 OPS on the DSL last season with 14 home runs in 152 at bats