Jake McKibbin

Calling a northern Irishman British is a dangerous game Joseph (despite the truth in the statement 😂). Chuffed is a slang word for happy/proud! My goal this year is to slip some British/Irish colloquialisms passed Trueblood in some articles, we'll see how that goes when talking about the Brewers hallions!

Apologies for the typo, I did mean 73% at the time 😅 Just odd with that sweeper, I'm unsure if he was facing a lot of lefties, but even then. Not super chuffed by the mix on show

I do think Holobetz was a little snakebitten defensively in this one, I didn't catch the first inning but the second he generated a lot of weak contact and just couldn't get the outs behind him

The Brewers' highest-paid player is slashing just .143/.262/.321 early in the season, and not providing a whole lot of production for the team. Is he showing any signs of a breakout? I haven't broadcasted it too much, mainly because I was impressed that Christian Yelich was still able to smoke bombs, but spring training wasn't pretty for the Brewers star—and that seems to have carried forward into the regular season. The main reason for concern was the regularity with which Yelich was swinging and missing. He has always had more swing-and-miss in the preseason than he does in the regular season—a very swing-happy approach geared towards finding his timing—but even then, this was quite excessive. (Unfortunately, Yelich didn't play in many Statcast-equipped parks, so this is based on the eye test.) It's understandable for a player who had major back surgery, and who was always likely to take a little time to find the timing in his swing. The good news is, it appears that he's beginning to do so. Yelich has shown some power, in between all of the whiffs reflected above, but it was undeniably concerning to see a player who has such good hand-eye coordination and plate discipline having a 50-pitch rolling average whiff rate of 68.4%. Since then, this has come down nicely, and even to the naked eye, he appears to be on time more often at the plate. There was a concern that he couldn't catch up to velocity, but the fastball whiff rate has been declining—although breaking balls are still giving him some trouble, particularly left on left, so it's possible he's cheating a bit to catch up to the heat. He was hitting the ball incredibly hard when making contact, doing damage, but he wasn't making contact often enough in the early going. Now that he's beginning to right the ship on that front, we can begin to look at the quality of batted balls. His expected slugging, due to the additional contact and some of the mammoth homers in Colorado, has spiked to above .520 over a rolling 25-plate appearance sample—a number that would leave us all quite content, were he to maintain it through the end of the year: The one downside, as always, is the last thing that usually comes round right for Yelich: his launch angles. Unfortunately, these have been trending down, but this has been a common theme throughout the 2020s. Yelich will, randomly, find that contact point out in front and go on some slugging tears, but at this point (over the same rolling 25 PA sample) the launch angle is averaging -4.2°. Thence the lack of production against Arizona. Perhaps it was rash to believe Yelich could slot straight back into the form he was on in 2024, it was always going to require a period of time for him to get back up to speed. Some of the early results (behind the bare stat lines) are showing that improvement. He appears in a similar place to his 2022 iteration (not his best form, I'll admit), but with more positive indicators early in the season, those final steps may not be all that far away. What are your thoughts on Christian Yelich? Has he met your expectations to begin the season, or did you have higher hopes? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Watching the shuckers produce offensively is just so fun. Adams, Pratt, Wilken, EBJ all contributing. Just awesome

Brandon Woodruff's first outing saw him throw 66 pitches of two-run ball, topping out at 95 mph, showcasing his final hurdles and how far he's come since spring training. Here's why you should begin to allow some optimism over Woodruff. Image courtesy of © Curt Hogg / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images It's a miracle that Brandon Woodruff is where he is at the moment. For most, an injury that can be career-ending, or at least trajectory-altering, has been handled with aplomb by both Woodruff and the medical staff with the Brewers. A revamped shoulder usually affects future mobility and strength within the joint, creating big concerns about whether he would regain the outlier life and carry on his fastballs or the same sharp movement of his breaking pitches again. Medical science has come a long way, but given Woodruff's age and historical shoulder duress, it was possible he would never surpass 94 mph again. He may have still learned how to pitch around that, but we would see a markedly different arm than the one that leads MLB in the 2020s (min 400 IP) for ERA at 2.68. Woodruff, at his best, was an MLB-leading ace. He's beginning to show signs that not only has he rediscovered the pitch shapes and pronation that eluded him in spring (see Jack Stern's excellent article here), but he's even beginning to command an entirely new pitch, one that he's desired since 2023. Let's have a look at the data to see where we should be impressed with Woodruff and where he still has room to grow before returning to the Major Leagues. The Pitch Shapes Before I go too deep, special thanks to Thomas Nestico at TJStats for giving me access to some amazing tools. These tools allowed me to customize Woodruff's pitches manually, which provides you with the insight below. During spring, Brandon Woodruff talked about feeling like his legs weren't always working as intended underneath him, creating an intriguing cut-ride fastball shape. It's not what he would have preferred, but it was something he could have worked with. It seems that the true Woody four-seamer has returned, though, with just a few iterations that cut amongst his 66 pitches. The other fascinating item was the sweeper, showing a strong horizontal movement profile to differentiate it from his slider and curveball, which have historically been very north/south. The sweeper returned a TJStuff+ grade 105, grading at almost 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale per TJStats models. Overall, Woodruff flashed a four-seam fastball that graded out as above average despite averaging just 92.4 mph, alongside a nice movement profile for his changeup, slider, and sweeper, as mentioned above. I cannot stress enough how remarkable that is at this stage of his recovery. The below doesn't include my manually adjusted pitch plots for Woodruff, but it does highlight how his fastball shape roughly coincides with that of his 2023 version. The only thing missing at this point is a couple of ticks of velocity on all of his offerings, and that's entirely to be expected at this stage of his recovery. Woodruff has spoken of how the final part of the rehabilitation process is the "snap," and it's something that just comes one day several months into a return to pitching. With this, we'll hopefully see those final few ticks of velocity across his arsenal while maintaining the same degree of movement across his arsenal; we just don't know when exactly that will be. One final reason for positivity is how Woodruff improved his fastball as the outing went on; his fastball was in the 90-92 mph range for the first half of his outing before finishing more regularly in the 93-94 mph range quite consistently on the four-seamer, and even touching 95 mph with his sinker on his fifth and final strikeout of the evening. Here's how his stuff played out on a rolling 5-pitch TJstuff+ basis in his outing (the four-seamer is in pink): With some further snap to come, this is very impressive from Woodruff and bodes very well for his continued rehab. The one element that will still require some adjustment is his command of his arsenal. Remember, Brandon Woodruff didn't pitch off a mound for almost 18 months. Finding that rhythm and timing in his delivery to enable him to be accurate in locating pitches will take time, and we can see that (from the cutter still appearing at times) his delivery isn't entirely in sync with where it could be. He did get hit relatively hard on Saturday evening to the tune of an Expected Weighted on Base Average on Contact (xWOBACON) of .712, and command was a large reason for that. It's nothing to be concerned about at this point, and with time on the mound continuing to replicate his delivery, that command will return, but for now, that and the "snap" are the only two things of concern for Woodruff. As a result, we can begin to be perhaps more optimistic that maybe, just maybe, Brandon Woodruff can lead this staff as a true rotation ace once more. What did you think of Woodruff's outing? Did you see signs of positivity? Or am I being too optimistic? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

It's actually one of the best statistics out there in terms of how it correlates with damage and batting average. EMJ has a good launch angle, but he gets a little too far underneath the ball at times vs the optimal 10°-30° angles. Hasnt quite found that sweet spot yet in triple A, but if he does then the threat he poses is just monstrous. It is the main reason he hasn't had more than the one homer so far despite everything else within that profile

Some fascinating observations in Miz's latest start: That zone % is actually.. average? And he was landing the curveball and slider/cutter quite regularly within it, to minimal quality of contact all around. The changeups are miscategorized as fastballs or now, but even then the average fb velo was down a little but IVB and HB were up a tick. One of the last comments Murphy made about Misiorowski was that he could perhaps lower the velo if it gave him more control and I'm curious if that plays out this season. Regarding that changeup, it grades out very nicely from a stuff+ point of view I would maybe like to see a bigger mix of pitches in his next outing, being less fastball dominant and see if he can keep landing the breaker and cutter/slider for strikes. I feel a couple of the walks manifested from hitters staying on the four seam, and they couldn't square it up but they could foul it off and drag him into some deeper pitch counts. To the eye test, it is looking like a step forward from his 2024 iteration albeit with work still to do

Vs @Joseph Zarrour boy looks gooooood

It feels like this is just wrong on so many levels. It's just too easy... and he doesn't whiff?!?! EMJ may break my brain

The approval of Joseph Zarr is a momentous thing! I'm touched my friend! I very well might have added him if I was able to fight bat speed/ exit velo data for him but unfortunately that's still not available. Absolutely delightful to see him showing some more confidence though for sure!

Luis Peña, Josh Adamczewski, and Braylon Payne all entered 2025 with big upside and a specific question to answer. So far, all three are blowing the doors off for the Carolina Mudcats, with considerable progress in the first week of action. Let's take a look at how each has lunged forward. Image courtesy of © Max Correa / The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK The Carolina Mudcats have one of the most interesting, stacked minor-league rosters going, featuring names like Jesús Made, Luis Peña, Braylon Payne, Eric Bitonti, Josh Adamczewski, Filippo Di Turi and Marco Dinges. All have considerable upside and definitive areas of their game to work on, but three names in particular have already shown considerable strides to begin the 2025 season: Luis Pena Luis Peña entered the season somewhat under the radar, despite being MLB Pipeline's 9th-ranked prospect in the Brewers organization. He actually outperformed Jesús Made in the final line from their rookie DSL seasons, but he showcased some flaws that scared scouts a little bit. The most common one was how regularly he chased pitches outside the strike zone, with one of the most swing-happy approaches in the DSL. Teaching an approach is one of the more difficult things in baseball, and while Peña's contact skills and speed (against weak DSL defenses) allowed him to get away with this approach, the pitching in a full-season affiliate was expected to produce a different challenge. Enter 2025, and Peña's approach is significantly more professional in just the first week of full-season Stateside baseball. Season Level Swing % Contact % 2024 DSL 66.3 78.0 2025 Lo A 41.8 92.9 In the DSL, Peña had a remarkably low 6% first-pitch strike rate, swinging at almost two-thirds of the pitches he saw and making contact 78% of the time. He swung early and often, avoiding striking out as a result—but also not walking a lot and limiting the damage he could do by keeping his swings inside the strike zone. This season, that swing rate has dropped to 41.8%, a much more professional number given the wildness he will see in the lower minor leagues, and his contact rate has soared as a result. A 93% contact rate is exceptional under any circumstances, and even more impressive given that Peña is just 18 years old, away from his family and living in America, with all that that entails. It's been a remarkable showing early on, and has manifested itself in some rocketed balls off the bat. He's yet to strike out for the Mudcats. If Peña can keep this up over the full season (or even maintain a portion of the improvement), they have another superstar to rival Made in their ranks. Josh Adamczewski Adamczewski's swing might be the prettiest in the Brewers system. A 2023 draft pickup in the 15th round, he's yet another graduate from the Ginger Poulson regime. His early showings in complex ball were impressive, but he struck out more than one would expect for his profile since joining the Brewers system. He's always prided himself on his eye at the plate and his ability to put the ball in play. Then, some easy-looking power began to show up at the end of 2024 and had a few sitting up and taking note. Now, Adamczewski has started 2025 with a bang that's showing off all the power and contact you dream of in a bat. Josh Adamczewski always showed a strong eye at the plate in his debut season, but was striking out at an 18% clip in the complex (rising to 24% in a brief sample at Carolina in 2024). There were concerns that the swing-and-miss reflected in his overall contact rate of 72.4% might become more prominent as he moved up the levels. He's dumping all over that so far, with that contact rate soaring up to 87.5% in his first week of 2025. He's wedded that with some impressive, powerful contact. Adamczewski has hit a booming home run, two triples, six singles and four walks in his first four games alone. Early on, because of sample size, contact rates are more useful (due to a larger sample, per swing or per pitch rather than per plate appearance) than strikeout rates, and as such, I'm less worried about the 19% strikeout rate so far. Adamczewski is making contact—hard contact—and still walking at a strong clip, with high-quality plate appearances. On top of that, his defense at second base has been sterling, with the full package leading him to Carolina League Player of the Week honors in their first set of games and setting the bar for some real excitement as 2025 progresses. Chris Clegg has also noticed some changes to his hand position and the overall strength in his frame, which seem to have helped him elevate the ball and be in a better position at the point of contact. It's too early in terms of batted-ball samples to use this as an indicator, but again, it's something to note going forward. Either way, enjoy some clips of Adamczewski mashing courtesy of Brewers Player Development! Braylon Payne The surprise pick of the first round in the 2024 MLB draft, Payne quickly showed that the Brewers knew more than most. Scouts talked about a choppy swing, high ground-ball rates and limited power (despite elite athleticism), which limited his ceiling. In a short four-game sample, however, he did showcase an exit velocity of up to 110 mph. Again, he showed some swing-and-miss in doing so, but he was 17 years old. At 18, he's showing not a single gap in his arsenal. The speed and defensive reads have been strong to start the season, and those will be his bread and butter going forward, but in week one, his bat has also been scorching hot. Payne is slugging .667, with just four swings and misses in 84 pitches (21 plate appearances), combining that with an 18.2% walk rate and just one strikeout. His contact rate, too, has jumped from the mid-70s to almost 89%. Payne hasn't looked overmatched at all. In fact, he's been bullying opposing pitchers. When you're showcasing that contact with this power, you truly have something on your hands. It is one week, but these look like some big steps forward from the incredibly talented teenagers in the Brewers system. I haven't even covered the power showcased by Eric Bitonti, while Made has been kept sidelined by a rolled ankle. The teenagers are one of the most exciting groups of players to follow in the minor leagues, and this type of early showcase should have you even more excited about what's to come for this talented trio. Such changes may not remain intact over a full season. This is a small sample. Yet, it's an exciting one, too. Even if there's some regression at later points in the year, overall, each of these players looks set up to have a big year in 2025. Do you have more confidence in these progressions? Or do you see it all reverting back to type by the end of April? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

EBJ with a roped line drive.. nice to see some hard contact off that bat

Brock Wilken just missed a bomb foul down the left field line, worked a nice walk in the end and a good AB

Ernesto Martinez Jr has an in zone contact rate of over 95%. And a hard hit rate of 60%. This is absurd I do think he generate more top spin that back spin on some of his batted balls, as well as getting underneath them a bit too much early doors but hot damn are the raw tools still LOUD

The Brewers made a surprise agreement with the Red Sox to bring former top prospect Quinn Priester into their pitching staff, but at a hefty price. Did they overpay, or are there reasons to believe Priester is worth the weight? Image courtesy of © Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images For an organization that prizes draft flexibility, this was a steep price to pay for an arm whom many remember as the struggling talent of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Quinn Priester has a career 6.23 ERA in the big leagues, with 69 strikeouts and 41 walks in 99 2/3 innings. None of those numbers are impressive. Priester hasn't struck out major-league hitters at the rate you want to see. He walks a lot of them, and regularly concedes runs. So why did the Brewers target him? Priester is a former top prospect (and the Brewers love some dusty prospect hype) who saw his arsenal change with the Red Sox after a trade last July. In Boston, they've become notorious for their devaluation of fastballs, particularly four-seamers. Instead, they use cutters and offspeed offerings more often. That's not the same thing as saying that they fail to see the value in throwing hard, though, and even as they've encouraged Priester to make a change in his fastball profile, he's increased his velocity under their watch. For a pitcher who used to sit 92-94 mph, he now averages 95 mph on the sinker and has been touching 97 consistently this spring. In fact, looking at his 2025 arsenal, his velocity is up on every one of his pitches but the changeup, which was already a firm offering at 90mph. The curveball has more speed and less drop, while the changeup and sinker have largely retained the same characteristics, despite the speed bump. However, I'm not sure even that is the value the Brewers see in Priester. Instead, it could be this: The above diagram is from Jeremy Maschino's Pitch Profiler, and considers how one pitch follows another. On the bottom row is the initial pitch, and then on the left is the pitch that follows, with a grade (in which 100 is average) to show how well those two pitches tunnel together in sequence. Maschino's models don't regard Priester as having even close to big-league stuff in his 2024 MLB appearances, However, the velocity improvements on all of his offerings will help that (as Thomas Nestico shows below). I'm also going to hazard a guess that the change in his curveball shape—to a heavier, later-breaking pitch—will help it blend much more effectively with the rest of his arsenal. I've not seen a pitch map like the above for anyone before. Usually, fastball offerings blend well, breaking pitches blend well, but the shape differentiation means that fastball/slider don't always "Match" nicely. Priester's entire arsenal blends together fantastically; it's one big reason why he consistently generates elite chase rates on all of his offerings: The above is Priester's first (and only) start of the season so far, showcasing that deadly sinker/slider combo he possesses, but most intriguing are the chase rates on his three most used pitches. It's a trend that has followed Priester in 2023 and 2024, and I believe the Brewers see something they can harness using the deception that Priester possesses. With the tweaks to his arsenal, he's capable of consistently inducing bad swing decisions. Yophery Rodriguez was the No. 10 prospect on Brewer Fanatic this offseason, with some loud tools and an advanced bat for his age. He performed admirably in Low-A Carolina last year, although some concern did arise on his chase rates. here's what our blurb had to say about him: Rodriguez is just 19 years old, having skipped the complex in Arizona to jump straight into Low-A, but there are concerns he may be a future corner outfielder (albeit a good one, defensively). Whether he can grow into enough power while continuing to control his chase rates as the pitching levels continue to improve is anyone's guess. He's still several years from the major leagues, whereas Priester is ready now, and controllable for six years. Priester for Rodriguez is a deal slightly skewed towards the Brewers, but the Competitive Balance Round A pick the Crew also had to include certainly swings things the other way. It's a big piece to give up, hampering their flexibility in the upcoming draft with how they use their bonus pool allocations. If you choose to think of transactions in these terms, it's fair to say the Red Sox won this trade. Then again, the Red Sox organization was rumored to be high on Priester, and proud of the developments they've overseen in him since he joined their ball club. Combining that with the intelligence of their front office and the desperation of the Brewers to fill their rotation immediately, it was always going to require an overpay. Hindsight could favor either side, as always, but if the Brewers can truly unlock Priester, this could look like a steal. If results continue at the major-league level for him as they have in the past, and Rodriguez goes from strength to strength, it could look like one of the worst Brewers trades in the last decade. Time will tell. What do you think of the Brewers trade? Did they give up too much? let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

On the other hand, I was quite impressed with Bryce Meccage. The curveball had a ton of depth and he commanded everything in and around the strike zone beautifully. If that kicks changeup continues to develop he may be a real someone to watch! The command was super impressive given his age

The Brewers have a habit of zigging while others zag, and are doing so again in how they target pitchers. It's been an admirable process that has surpassed expectations with lower payrolls, but have they begun to push their cause excessively? Image courtesy of © Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports The Brewers are in an interesting position. They've managed to retain just enough top of the rotation upside since the Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta three-headed monster to remain competitive, leaning into deception to capture what they perceive as a market inefficiency. With the age of public stuff+ models (of which the teams will have their own internal, high spec models) we can classify better than ever just how "filthy" each individual pitch truly is. The Brewers have zigged while most others zag, prioritizing a pitchers entire arsenal and how their pitches play off each other over their raw "stuff". Nearly every acquisition in the last two years has been able to throw multiple fastball variations without any of these pitches grading out particularly highly on stuff+ models, with the reason being that these pitches can seem incredibly similar at the point of making a swing decision. The Brewers believe that tunneling (how similar pitches look at the same point a hitter) is distinctly more valuable than the sheer amount said pitch moves after release. Both are valuable in avoiding barrels, but perhaps the Brewers are beginning to go too far in favor of the former. The two biggest contributors to how a pitcher's stuff grades out are how far it moves, and how fast it's thrown. Sandy Alcantara is able to throw sinkers that break two feet horizontally at 99 mph, just one reason why he's so difficult to square up. The Brewers rank in the bottom 10 per FanGraphs for velocity on each of the three fastball variants from their starting pitchers (and consider that their four-seam fastballs average has been boosted by a second Freddy Peralta start), while also throwing significantly more of these pitches than any other team in baseball: So the organization, contrary to the quintessential essence of speed in a fastball, are veering away from this while using them more heavily than any other franchise, throwing them almost 25% more than their closest competitor in second. The Brewers do have some good movement on their offerings, with Peralta and Elvin Rodriguez generating strong induced vertical break (or rising effect) on their four-seamers. Nestor Cortes and Aaron Civale create positive stuff+ grades for their cutters per TJ Stats, but not to the point where you would say a pitcher could lean on that offering (and similar velocity pitches) almost 75% of the time. The plan from the Brewers is not to generate swings and misses, but to miss barrels by small deviations in pitch movement. With their defensive setup, it's almost as good as an out, and a side effect might be how it allows flamethrowers Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill to play up when they enter the game. That being said, staying crafty requires pinpoint execution, and the Brewers do not have the room to miss their spots with the same abandon that, say the Reds can. They already learned that the hard way on opening weekend. I do wonder as well if the Brewers as an organization are leaning too heavily into this setup. While it is advantageous in controlling the overall cost of your starting rotation, one area it shouldn't filter into too heavily is in the products coming through the farm system. Shane Smith was not the stuff+ darling he is now when the 2024 season finished, but he was understandably fatigued by the time he reached Nashville. 2024 was his first season in a starting rotation, something he built up to mid-season — it's to be expected that there may have been more in the tank. If we compare his 2024 season in Nasvhille with how Smith started the year for the White Sox, the improvement is evident: The fastball shape is still sub-par, but this is a pitcher who had shown results, year-on-year improvements and now possesses one of the best changeups in baseball (negative induced vertical break is crazy at 90 mph). They traded this for Connor Thomas, whose main pitch had a scouting grade (per the 20-80 grade for TJ Stats model) of 35. Thomas' main calling card is deception and he uses his entire arsenal to keep hitters off balance while barely averaging 90 mph on his fastball. It's a fair argument to say that the Brewers made this move to reinforce their 2025 bullpen in long relief, and were concerned about the fastball metrics Shane Smith produced. There is validity to this argument. The question is whether their approach to major league free agents is beginning to shift down through their system. I make this point not because I believe either player would have markedly affected the Brewers in 2025 (at least at the time of decision-making), but because the Brewers still need to prioritize swing and miss raw offerings in the farm system wherever possible. The high price of such arms is a deterrent on the free agent market, but they need to keep a steady stream of it flowing through their minor league system in order to retain/upgrade their rotation from the song and dance form it's currently in. For any shape concerns, Smith has shown he can generate swings and misses and also has the fastball velocity to get by on occasion. If Thomas leaves either fastball over the heart of the plate, it's immediate trouble. Simply put, velocity matters. To be a top of the rotation arm, you need that stuff that blows past hitters. Naming the top arms in the sport and you have Garrett Crochet, Paul Skenes, Spencer Strider, Jacob DeGrom, Corbin Burnes, all of whom can reach at least the mid-90s. None of the above Brewers' arms have even a 91 mph fastball offering on average. Jacob Misiorowski and Bishop Letson are two players with the types of fastball that you can build an arsenal around with strong extension off the mound, good rise and high velocity. The Brewers will need more in this mold coming through their system if they aspire to return to that truly dominant pitching staff of yesteryear. View full article

Not quite the sports illustrated cover I aspired to create

I'd guess it's a simple version not accounting for arm angle. That being said, a lot more low release heights in MLB which has likely reduced the average VAA. It's also a stat that doesn't always work in isolation unless you check the location. Highly affected by where in the zone it's thrown