Jake McKibbin

Bryce Meccage is back in action this week!

That dumptruck ain't made to sit around

Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Jacob Misiorowski hasn't hit the ground running after his shin contusion. He's struggled with command against both Cincinnati and Chicago, and has made a consistent theme of letting innings spiral out of control. Those crooked numbers (born of poor situation management) are the last thing you would want in playoff baseball, where every inning and every out is potentially pivotal, but it's also fair to say that the young hurler has had his fair share of misfortune. Let's see if we can find a way to break down his struggles. First, let's take a look at Baseball Savant's expected metrics. After his Phillies start, Misiorowski has a 4.50 ERA in 48 innings. Nothing flashy there. However, his underlying numbers suggest he's been better than that. He has a .183 expected batting average and .313 expected slugging against him. His expected ERA is 2.76. These are all marks in the upper echelons of baseball. That's not really surprising. His arsenal is almost unhittable. Even as we look at a times-through-the-order penalty, it seems as though he's performing well multiple times through. He's getting hit harder and higher, but he's still a strikeout machine after the lineup card turns over: Times Through Order Strikeout Rate Walk Rate xFIP Hard Hit Rate Fly Ball Rate Left on Base First 38.4% 12.1% 2.68 29.2% 35.4% 86.5% Second 35.3% 9.4% 3.16 40.4% 51.1% 36.6% Misiorowski has had a habit of exploding out of the gate, only to find a blow-up frame in the middle innings somewhere. Looking at the above, we can discern that he is getting hit slightly harder the second time through a lineup, albeit still at around an average clip overall. He's giving up more fly balls, too, but the big difference I find here is the left-on-base rate. When runners get on base, they score almost two-thirds of the time. For comparison's sake, the average left-on-base rate is 72.3% this season. When facing someone who can strike out hitters like "the Miz", you could expect that number to be closer to 80% over the course of his career. Yet, he's struggled to stop innings from snowballing. Part of this may be down to the pitcher, while another part is just bad luck. His start against the Diamondbacks is a perfect example. He dominated for most of his appearance, striking out 10 hitters across five innings of work with three hits and one walk, but due to a misplay at first base and an untimely home run, he gave up three runs. The home run came at the perfect time for maximum damage; that's at least partially out of Misiorowski's control. He did leave a slider middle-in, but it was a 96-mph slider. Turning on that pitch is no mean feat. That being said: A Sliding Tweak To His Arsenal Of all Misiorowski's pitches, the one I perhaps like the least is his hard slider (read "cutter," if your name is Jack Stern). Its shape isn't great, and is more of a "get you off the four-seamer" offering than a strong pitch on its own. The reason he developed it, and still has it as his second-most used pitch, is because he's very comfortable pouring it in when he needs to find the strike zone. He needed this last season when he struggled to locate the fastball, but perhaps not quite so often now that his primary offering's command has improved: Thomas Nestico's model highlights how Misiorowski has above-average zone rates for each of his main three pitches, but both of his secondaries have their problems. The slider is one he finds easy to locate, but he rarely gets swing-and-miss or chase with this offering, making it less useful when he gets ahead. Of the five home runs Misiorowski has given up this season, three have come on his slider. Part of the problem is his velocity differential from the fastball, which hitters are likely sitting on, but it helps them catch the slider slightly out in front and pull it in the air with relative consistency, doing some real damage if he leaves it over the middle of the plate. It does perform well enough when he can locate it on the outer third to right-handed batters, but it too often drifts over the middle, and that's real danger for this pitch shape. If he was more comfortable nibbling with the slider, I think it may perform better (even despite his current walk issues) and really limit the damage that can come behind it. In fact, given the counts Misiorowski uses his slider in, that's exactly what should be happening. He utilizes it predominantly to righties, and notice how the usage creeps up both in two-strike counts, and when he gets ahead: With the profile he has for whiffs on the slider, that doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Conventional wisdom would say that his slider is a good pitch to initiate weak contact on, but not so much to finish off hitters. The curveball's usage is probably lower than it should be, and honestly, the changeup could also be a good chase pitch off his fastball. The slider, well, there isn't a ton of logic to its current usage, given how it actually plays against big-league hitters. Pitch Profiler's model above suggests this would bring further benefits. The chart shows how well the pitch on the left hand side (y-axis) matches when thrown after the pitch on the bottom (x-axis). Notice how the slider sets up his fastball and changeup, better than vice-versa. The velocity can speed up, or slow down from there. Hitters aren't swinging much at Misiorowski's first pitch, waiting it out, knowing that they can force deep counts. If he gets ahead, the chances of a slider or curveball coming increase exponentially, and those two pitches are a little more gettable than his heater. If he falls behind, you can sell out early, knowing a fastball is coming your way. Misiorowski needs to become a little less predictable. It'll help him be more efficient in deeper counts, especially as he's landing his three primary offerings for strikes. He may also gain some benefit from throwing the changeup more to right-handers, as a chase-centric offering. Predictability, even with otherworldly stuff, gives hitters a chance to put the ball in play. His feel for the curveball and its location will likely continue to improve the more he pitches, as with the changeup, but how he uses all three off the fastball will go a long way toward deciding his future success. Has He Been Unlucky? The short answer here is yes. His expected FIP, expected ERA, and the quality of contact against him all indicate that his 4.50 ERA at this point is not representative of how he's pitched. He's given up some unfortunately timed long balls, although part of that may come from him tightening up with men on base. He walks more hitters when he lets one man on the basepaths behind him, and that can cause some escalation in moving a runner to scoring position, or the one big hit costing an extra run. It all tallies up, and it's fair to say that, based on Misiorowski's trends in both the major and minor leagues, this is a pattern for him. More exposure to these situations (and developing confidence in his ability to work through these problems) is the only solution. Whether his confidence goes, he loses focus on the "one-pitch-at-a-time" process, or he just gets tight, it's something that he'll learn how to work through in the moments that matter. Bringing this back to the original question of how much to trust Misiorowski in a playoff situation, that is a concern for now. If the pressure of a regular-season game can hit in this manner, then what will the bright lights in October manage? So, October? Misiorowski has the potential to be a game breaker. He can rip open lineups like almost no one else in baseball. He's been unfortunate of late, but if he can force the league to be more uncertain of what pitch comes next (as in his demolition of Kyle Schwarber below), he's still a unique weapon. He needs to mature on the mound. He'll get there. For now, I would imagine Misiorowski could be unleashed as a starter in October, with a fit, rested Aaron Ashby ready to cover should he begin to find some trouble. Perhaps we'll even see an improved level of focus in the bigger games. Perhaps, though, the better place for him is in the bullpen. It's important to note that, especially since the All-Star break, his velocity declines quickly after his first inning of work. He's down a full mile per hour by his second frame within each game, and another half-tick down for each of the next two. Maybe that means that adrenaline is helping him through first innings, but then ebbing as his outings continue. That screams out for reassignment to short relief. He does have a tendency to lose command in tight spots. That's not ideal for any pitcher, never mind in playoff baseball. He's also been dreadfully unlucky, though, and perhaps he's miscast in a starting role—at least at this moment in his development. The reliability of Quinn Priester would probably be favored over the young phenom at this point, but the Brewers should still keep him in their plans for October, one way or another. If it clicks, he might just be the reason they win it all. View full article

Jesus MadeLuis PenaCooper PrattMarco DingesJeferson QueroLogan HendersonRobert GasserBraylon PayneLuke AdamsBishop LetsonAndrew FischerBrock WilkenBlake BurkeJosh AdamczewskiLuis LaraBrady EbelEric BitontiTyson HardinFrank CaironeBryce Meccage

Jesus MadeLuis PenaCooper PrattMarco DingesJeferson QueroLogan HendersonRobert GasserBraylon PayneLuke AdamsBishop LetsonAndrew FischerBrock WilkenBlake BurkeJosh AdamczewskiLuis LaraBrady EbelEric BitontiTyson HardinFrank CaironeBryce Meccage

All while I'm kind of loving Shelby miller in this bullpen, who we got for a PTBNL and removing Jordan Montgomery from the D'Backs roster. I wonder at what point can any of us question Matt Arnold in any trade again? It's just hit after hit

Out of curiosity, what's the tiebreaker if the Mudcats tie with Fredericksburg?

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images Andrew Vaughn's initial success is the personification of financial investment warnings; that is, "past results are no indication of future performance." No one expected him to be a 1.200 OPS hitter over a longer span, yet he's still been a remarkably consistent presence at the plate in ways that suggest he's been incredibly unlucky in August. He did experience a slight drop-off in early August, but has rebounded lately with consistent, hard-hit aerial balls that just haven't yielded the results his performance warrants. Merely watching games would give some indication that Vaughn's plenitude of warning track fly balls suggests he's barely missing the game-changing long balls that had the Brewers fan base in raptures through July. We're talking a blade of wood on the bat of a difference here, folks, and sluggers will typically find that the home run ball comes in fits and spurts. That being said, pitchers have found a way to keep the hard-hit contact down on the ground more often in August by changing their approach to the first baseman. If we're talking about purely minimizing damage, one zone in his expected Weighted on base average on contact alongside his expected slugging stands out like a sore thumb: If you can keep pitches down, or down and away to Andrew Vaughn, he struggles to elevate it with the consistency to maximize his good contact. He still hits the ball hard, but ground balls at that speed can be tailor-made double play fodder for good defenses, and even when they do sneak through, it's more than likely just a single. Below we can see the pitch locations of all four seam fastballs, sinkers, and cutters in August compared to those in July: July August It's a ploy that's worked out well for the opposition, and while Vaughn is still punishing breaking balls, he's seen his expected slugging output drop markedly against fastballs in the zone. He's pulling the ball less often, meaning the barreled balls are going more often to center or the opposite field and aren't quite getting the same exit velocities to clear the fences. It's these sorts of small margins that are just barely shackling the first baseman. The good news is that Andrew Vaughn's cerebral approach to baseball has allowed him to maintain positive production for the Brewers, even without the signature slugging output of his debut month. He's striking out just 12.7% of the time in August with a walk rate of over 9%, putting balls in play and consistently squaring the ball up with good exit velocities. His Statcast page is filled with red on quality of contact metrics (even despite the inclusion of his White Sox numbers from earlier in the season): Andrew Vaughn has been unlucky in August. He's not whiffing much; he's taking his walks and making a lot of hard, high-quality contact. It just so happens that pitchers have found a way to subdue some of the roaring power he showed in his first month with the Brewers. It may result in Rhys Hoskins perhaps taking more at-bats against pitchers with dominant sinkers, and Vaughn with more four-seam dominant arms during the September stretch, or perhaps Vaughn simply gets that little bit of fortune that allows him to go on yet another tear for the Milwaukee Brewers. The good news is that, even without some of the slugging output, Andrew Vaughn has been a menace in the heart of the Brewers order, and it's only a matter of time before that luck rebounds and we see those extra base hits pour back in. He might not reach the highs of his July form again, but Andrew Vaughn is still a capable and effective producer for this Milwaukee Brewers line-up. What do you think of Andrew Vaughn's recent form? Is it concerning, or do you see enough quality in his plate appearances to keep him rolling? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Jeferson Quero has been awesome of late, but there are some red flags here in terms of what the Brewers organisation looks for:

This may be one of the more fascinating TJStats profiles I've seen. Stuff grades out horribly, but the changeup has had some solid whiff rates while the other parts of his arsenal do a solid job limiting hard contact

Urias is interesting as a profile, but not as a n acquisition for the Brewers. He's been poor defensively and he seems to be trying to adopt a more Caleb Durbin type profile, where he doesn't hit the ball hard and has sacrificed some EV's for some increased air pull rates. He doesn't really fit with the Brewers for my money, even if Ortiz was out for a longer period of time, and he's not exactly setting the world alight with his altered approach either (.653 OPS this season)

https://x.com/ChourioRBW/status/1959181033619763409?t=_QfomA5F4BjTWiEhCtaPlA&s=09

He'll still be a rookie next season, and six years of team control remaining after that. I think the first step is to get him to Triple A and see if Pratt can play his way into the conversation. He'll have to play incredibly well, and if he does, thats when the difficult decision begins

Image courtesy of © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Joey Ortiz's injury may be a worst-case scenario for the Milwaukee Brewers. The one position where they have a very limited assortment of depth is shortstop. Every other position appears stocked with at least a capable reserve, either on their 26-man roster or with their Triple-A affiliate in Nashville. Ortiz's bat has been polarizing, at times producing hard line drives to the opposite field and at other times becoming a pop-up machine, but his defense over the last few months has been outstanding. His first step has been more on time and his range has improved to the point where he may be one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball over the past couple of months. The way the Brewers value that infield defense, it's a critical loss, if Ortiz is sidelined for any significant length of time. Right now, that does seem possible. Andruw Monasterio has filled in for Ortiz this season on occasion and, surprisingly, has looked capable in the six hole—although he doesn't inspire a ton of confidence defensively over a larger sample size. In all honesty, his plate appearances might be better than Ortiz's, especially in terms of his ball/strike recognition, and he should be a capable short-term solution. The team doesn't need to tap an inexperienced, low-ceiling backup like Freddy Zamora (whose bat is unlikely to play at all in the major leagues) or Ethan Murray (a capable utility infielder with great defensive showings this season, but still raw in Triple A). Here's where Cooper Pratt comes in. If the Brewers want to succeed in October, you can bet that a strong defense will play a big role in that. It's no coincidence that the turnaround in Ortiz's defensive fortunes has coincided with the recent run of form from the Brewers, with plays like this leading the way. Andruw Monasterio, on his best day, isn't capable of this kind of play: Just to be clear, Pratt should NOT be promoted straight to the big leagues, but he was likely to get a promotion to Triple A soon, anyway. That decision should be sped up if Ortiz is out for the rest of the season. Pratt has a minor-league Gold Glove and, by all accounts, has become one of the best shortstops in the minor leagues. It's plays like these in critical moments that can have big implications in playoff baseball: The bat also seems to be coming around. Pratt doesn't have big bat speed, but there's more power to be tapped into from his frame. Some of that appears to be bearing fruit of late, with tweaks to his leg kick that are helping him be on time for the 93+ mph fastballs he struggled with earlier in the season. Aram Leighton of Just Baseball highlighted Pratt's struggles against any form of velocity in a pre-season podcast, and the changes below may illustrate why those happened—and why it's less of a concern now. Back in spring training, Pratt was finding ways to get the good part of the bat on the ball, but the coil in his front hip was making him slightly late getting through the hitting zone. Contrast that with his more recent power surges, and you can see that, although he still has the leg kick, he doesn't rotate excessively, and is finding himself out in front and pulling a lot of fly balls. The exit velocities haven't been massive, but the balls have gone a long, long way out of the park (similar to some of the changes Matt Shaw has made to unlock himself since the All-Star break). Note that one of these is Pratt turning on and crushing one of those aforementioned 93+ mph fastballs. Pratt has also made strides in his chase rate this season, seeing considerable improvement in his rolling 120-pitch sample. Ideally, the Brewers would like to give Pratt more time to see if the changes he's made are more than just a small-sample burst. If Ortiz is out for the season, however, they may not have that luxury, and with tangible changes on top of Pratt's improved swing decisions, they should consider pushing him aggressively to see how these stack up against Triple-A opposition. If the power output and improved batted-ball quality continue at the higher level, he may be primed for an opportunity in mid-September. The expanded rosters (and potentially having the division clinched by that point) allow the Brewers some luxury in testing the waters with Pratt. His defensive acumen, combined with a higher ceiling with the bat than the available alternatives at Triple A, would say the Brewers should at least give him a shot of forcing his way into the playoff picture. At worst, Pratt gets to sample Triple-A pitching slightly earlier than intended and hits a roadblock. The best case is, he takes to it like a duck to water. For a Brewers organization who love depth and options, it seems like a no-brainer. Hopefully, Ortiz's injury is relatively mild and this will be moot, but it's good to think proactively in moments like these. What do you think of pushing Cooper Pratt to Triple A in the wake of Joey Ortiz's injury? Do you think his simplified pre-swing mechanics are significant enough to gamble on? Do you see a route to him earning opportunities in September with the big league club? Let us know in the comments below! View full article

Brice Turang had 5 fWAR last year on basically league average hitting due to his efforts on the basepaths and his ridiculous defense. If he can find that defensive sparkle again alongside this potent form of his bat, you could be looking at a 7 win player. Yes prospects are shiny and new, but to expect them to put up 5-7 win seasons off the bat, with any regularity, is crazy no matter how much shine they have. You should also factor in there's a very real chance Pena may end up in the outfield, but I'd say if Turang plays at this level for a few seasons it would take a monumental offer to pry him from the Brewers I say this more because we can get totally carried away sometimes by prospects without realising just how valuable our current cohort are. For the Brewers, no player is off the table, but it would take a big offer. Turan has eight home runs in just 22 days of August. That's quite ludicrous output, and if its anyway sustainable, you may have an MVP candidate on your hands

I was thinking the exact same for this weekend. They'll want to push Woody out to five days rest, and Patrick seems perfectly set up to help that. The worry is if its another short start from him, but he did get sharper as the game progressed against the Cubs. Its been an odd series for the starters. Freddy was great, and I actually don't think Miz was that bad, he just got a lesson in maintaining your focus and keeping your foot on the throat when you're dominating. Once you lose your rhythm its so difficult to get it back, but he did in the end. I'd need to see a couple more poor starts from him before assessing if he's lost t gains he took earlier in the season. As for Woody and Priester, those were strange. Priester didn't seem comfortable at all with his sinker and was flying open, more like the Priester of yesteryear, but hopefully that's an easy fix to dial him back in. Woodruff hasn't been that nibbly for a while either. Hopefully both can pound the zone over their next few starts and get a little length because, as you say, its desperately needed. Carlos Rodriguez will likely get to finish the game behind Quintana on Friday and give the rest of the pen a breather before being sent down for a Patrick return on Sunday

I'm well aware that, having posted this, Imanaga may go seven shutout and dot the edges of the strike zone all day. Hopefully the Brewers can tag him, especially if the wind is neutral

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images Tobias Myers's changeup was a key factor behind his breakout in 2024. Here was a pitcher whose fastball could survive at the top of the strike zone, thanks to big induced vertical break (IVB, or "Rise") and some velocity gains, but was quite hittable if it dropped down in the strike zone. His high arm slot meant that the IVB didn't play as well as the raw stuff numbers might suggest, and he needed something to keep hitters off that pitch. Last year, he played around with a cutter, but that offering struggled to miss bats and had a high expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) against it. The changeup was a very strong offering for him, as well, but he only used it 11% of the time; he struggled to command it with any authority. It was a unicorn shape, almost rising as it approached the plate. That meant it tunnelled very well with his four-seam fastball, while being around 11 miles per hour slower out of the hand. His profile was similar to that of Lucas Giolito, at his best, with the combination of a high slot on a rising fastball and a changeup that used velocity separation instead of movement. If we look at Pitch Profiler's dynamic dead zone map, which contrasts the actual movement of the pitch (solid-colored circles) with the expected movement based on spin and release angle, we can see how that pitch deviates from the hitter's expectation. Myers has quite a unique arsenal, in that his pitches all deviate quite significantly from that perception. The four-seam fastball cuts a lot; his curveball is straighter, but with more depth; and the changeup gets an unusual amount of ride. That being said, only two of his pitches last season were classified as having above-average Stuff+ ratings in Jeremy Maschino's model, while the rest graded out quite poorly: The ideal solution this year would have been for Myers to continue developing that feel for his changeup in the offseason, using it more in games this season and reducing the cutter usage. The problem is, that feel just never materialized. He threw his changeup just 3.3% of the time early in the season before being demoted to the minor leagues. When he reached Triple A, up until June 1, Myers threw it just 6.5% of the time, while landing it in the strike zone just one out of every six times he threw it. He had no control of the pitch, and despite great results when he did elicit swings, without feel, it was only a supplementary offering. Enter: the split-change. Myers has found an immediate comfort with his new changeup variant, and it's really showing. Since returning to the major-league club in July, Myers has thrown his changeup 26.5% of the time, while landing it in the strike zone 56.2% of the time. Usually, the correlation would be that more in-zone pitches would equal fewer swings and misses and more damage, especially if that pitch is thrown more often. Not in this case, though, with Myers producing a lower xwOBA on contact and a higher whiff rate so far since his return to the staff than he did throughout 2024. Yes, it's a small sample size of not even 50 pitches, but it's clear that Myers has found something here. He's managed to retain a similar shape as 2024, with high induced vertical break for a changeup, but he has killed a little more of the spin and created more deviation from the expected movement path. The results put this new version of the change in the mix with some of the best offspeed pitches in baseball. It's a huge weapon that allows him to keep hitters off-balance, and off of his fastball, while opening up a plethora of sequencing options that he's comfortable using to both left- and right-handed hitters. He's so comfortable, in fact, that his last two games have seen usage rates of over 40%, becoming his main pitch in lieu of the four-seam fastball. This is the Tobias Myers we caught glimpses of in 2024, but with a dominant non-fastball in his arsenal, the next step might be to move him from the multi-inning relief role he's filled recently to more of a short-burst, high-leverage gig, as needed. He's becoming more promising as a playoff weapon, the more he shows that that changeup can dominate. On the other hand, with a crowded stretch in the schedule here and starting depth always worth worrying about, the Brewers may try to stretch Myers out and bring him back to round out their rotation on the expanded rosters come September. That could be part of a plan to go to six starters. His recent changeup in tow, he's a great arm in any of a few potential roles. What do you think of Myers's changeup? Have you been impressed with his recent outings? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article