Jake McKibbin
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Everything posted by Jake McKibbin
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I don't think he will be, but that's likely less to do with him, and more to do with Contreras at the plate, Arenado not being MVP calibre again, the young guys like Donovan, Burleson, etc not being .300 hitters, Walker not being EDLC level of talent, and a rotation that to be fair has righted the ship recently but did get them into this mess i the first place by being god awful.
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How Much Do You Believe, In Regression To The Mean?
Jake McKibbin replied to sveumrules's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
As mentioned by @owbcit's important to realise some of these are rookie struggles too, Turang has been a black hole, Wiemer was awful in May (though he may be the Wiemer we hoped for now) and there's a settling in period. Would a Adames/Urias/Miller/Anderson infield be better right now, of course, thats where we need to recognise the injuries (that's with a Rowdy DH) and the toll they've taken. So can I se them improving, undoubtedly. And with a full strength pitching lineup, this team may only need mediocre bats in the first place -
How Much Do You Believe, In Regression To The Mean?
Jake McKibbin replied to sveumrules's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Carlos Rodriguez and Misiorowski would argue this, plus Gasser was lights out last start in Triple A There's some shoots of pitching coming through for sure An owner with a budget, absolutely. And it's fair to say that using younger guys coming through has worked well. The hitters (such as Adames) are underperforming massively compared to career numbers, so I think that's fair enough in some regards -
I actually thought their approach was decent at the start, wearing him down, making okay contact that just didnt find the gaps. Especially when you've got no idea really on his stuff and how it plays coming in. Then after 53 pitches in two innings, they went into full swing mode and really helped him out I'm beginning to get excited by Joey Wiemer's AB's though
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With a Simple Timing Adjustment, Joey Wiemer is Breaking Out
Jake McKibbin posted an article in Brewers
In May, Joey Wiemer had a slash line of .188/.274/.306 for a .580 OPS. At times, it looked like, even despite his defense, he needed to be sent down to work on some adjustments that could allow his power to come through at the major-league level. He had some early-season BABIP luck, beating out infield dribblers, but hasn’t produced solid, consistent contact at any point. He has an expected batting average (xBA) of .195, has an expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .284, and a hard-hit rate in the 28th percentile for the league. Not the power-hitting right fielder we expected, and his swing-and-miss tendencies have had him looking almost blind at the plate through May. So why the optimism? Everything with Wiemer, since joining the Brewers in the fourth round in 2020, has been centered on simplifying his swing, which looks wild to say the least. When things go wrong at the plate, the Brewers usually go to their default answer: “Let’s eliminate his leg kick.” That (non-)movement is catching the league by storm, with the likes of Jeremy Pena adopting the approach, as well as Keston Hiura. In this case, it seems to have worked. Before Wednesday, Wiemer had just 13 out of 108 batted balls hit 102 mph or harder. Since Thursday, though, he has hit six out of 12 batted balls over that mark, producing much more regular, solid contact and more professional at-bats. On Sunday, he had a 103-mph groundout, a 106-mph single, and 104-mph ground ball that (alas) became a double play. On Monday, he hit two doubles, one of which was over 110 mph, and his only out came after hitting a ball just foul into the upper decks in the Great American Ball Park. In his most recent home run, look how much less stressful the swing is: It’s resulted in him being able to attack pitchers, as well as take his walks, with five walks in the last week and a slash line of .318/.444/.545. That’s to go along with some BABIP misfortune, with some balls rifled at fielders. If we’re seeing the Joey Wiemer breakout, then the Brewers will be going a long way towards fixing their impotent May offense. Joey has arrived. -
The Freshmen have been asked to integrate into the broader student population a bit more quickly and completely than the Brewers imagined when this season began, and there have been some growing pains. One of the youngsters, though, is starting to look as though he's ready for the advanced coursework at this level. Image courtesy of © Sam Greene-USA TODAY Sports In May, Joey Wiemer had a slash line of .188/.274/.306 for a .580 OPS. At times, it looked like, even despite his defense, he needed to be sent down to work on some adjustments that could allow his power to come through at the major-league level. He had some early-season BABIP luck, beating out infield dribblers, but hasn’t produced solid, consistent contact at any point. He has an expected batting average (xBA) of .195, has an expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .284, and a hard-hit rate in the 28th percentile for the league. Not the power-hitting right fielder we expected, and his swing-and-miss tendencies have had him looking almost blind at the plate through May. So why the optimism? Everything with Wiemer, since joining the Brewers in the fourth round in 2020, has been centered on simplifying his swing, which looks wild to say the least. When things go wrong at the plate, the Brewers usually go to their default answer: “Let’s eliminate his leg kick.” That (non-)movement is catching the league by storm, with the likes of Jeremy Pena adopting the approach, as well as Keston Hiura. In this case, it seems to have worked. Before Wednesday, Wiemer had just 13 out of 108 batted balls hit 102 mph or harder. Since Thursday, though, he has hit six out of 12 batted balls over that mark, producing much more regular, solid contact and more professional at-bats. On Sunday, he had a 103-mph groundout, a 106-mph single, and 104-mph ground ball that (alas) became a double play. On Monday, he hit two doubles, one of which was over 110 mph, and his only out came after hitting a ball just foul into the upper decks in the Great American Ball Park. In his most recent home run, look how much less stressful the swing is: It’s resulted in him being able to attack pitchers, as well as take his walks, with five walks in the last week and a slash line of .318/.444/.545. That’s to go along with some BABIP misfortune, with some balls rifled at fielders. If we’re seeing the Joey Wiemer breakout, then the Brewers will be going a long way towards fixing their impotent May offense. Joey has arrived. View full article
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Abbott looks good but he has given up eight home runs in 38 innings at AAA so far this season, but he's striking out a ton of batters with his slider especially. Should be an interesting one
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This will likely come as no surprise to those watching the sluggish offense provided by the Brewers in May, but there has been one standout amidst the team’s struggles to get on base and pressure opposing pitchers with regularity. They have had too many black holes in the line-up, but this player has hit day in, day out for them. Before we get to the May Hitter of the month, here are a few players who were under considerations after putting together a solid May. Honorable Mentions Christian Yelich Yelich hit .284 in the month of May with four home runs, four doubles, and 11 walks to just 15 strikeouts (a 15% strikeout rate), a vast improvement of the 34 he tallied in April. On top of a week-long power binge, after which he was sidelined with a back injury sliding into three consecutive bases, he has provided a consistent on base presence with a .376 OBP and .842 OPS overall, teasing many fans at the notion that he isn’t far away from rekindling his best form. The biggest sign is when he pulls the ball more in the air, but it should be noted that he currently has a .285 xBA and .488 xSlg, so he has hit into a reasonable amount of misfortune so far this season. Could June be the month Yelich awakens from his slumber? Rowdy Tellez Our April hitter of the month produced another solid effort at the plate, going .240/.329/.427 for a .756 OPS, including four home runs. He hasn’t had one of his hot streaks this month, but it’s only a matter of time before he runs into one and carries the Brewers for a week or so. Perhaps more concerning is that he’s only tallied six RBI in 81 plate appearances, the Brewers need to give him more of a platform with men on base, and he needs to do a better job at getting the ball in the air to avoid the double plays that can plague him. William Contreras His bat was slightly stagnant to begin the month, but it started to heat up late in the month, with six RBI across his last five games, including three home runs. Sporting a .194/.301/.444 line, he was hitting far too many grounders straight into the dirt, but has begun to come out of his funk, and his .756 OPS has gone a long way to helping the Brewers through this tough stretch of games. Interestingly, his return has coincided with an uptick in games at which Victor Caratini has started as catcher, perhaps a great balance behind the plate is needed for him given this is his first season as primary catcher. Hitter of the Month Owen Miller Owen Miller has been, quite simply, outstanding for the Brewers. He has shown an aggressiveness early in counts. He is regularly making solid, aerial contact on targeted pitches. The hometown kid also added the ability to turn on inside pitches for some big home runs this last month. All expectations of Miller were of him being a bit, role player with an average to subpar bat, but ever since spring training, he has raked. He’s hit .363 with seven doubles and four home runs in May with a 15.6% strikeout rate, and has greatly deserved the increased playing time and move up the batting order. Miller’s short, compact stroke is complimented by his understanding of the pitches he can do damage on. While he struggles more in the outer third of the zone, he waits patiently for pitches on the middle and inside that he can pull, with over 80% of his batted balls going to straightaway center or the pull side. He is in the 91st percentile for whiff rate, only missing four balls in the upper third of the zone all year long, while creating regular line drives from most areas of the strike zone, a big reason for his high level of productivity so far this season. Without his run of form, the Brewers would likely be sitting below .500 by now, now it’s up to the rest of the line-up to start bringing him in more often. Aside from his bat, he has also shown solid range in defense across almost every position on the infield, as well as causing some havoc in the bases when required, such as when he scored on a steal of second base, taking an aggressive send to reach home plate in a tight encounter. What are your thoughts of the month Owen Miller had in May? How would you rank these candidates? Leave a comment below.
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May was a tough month for the Brewers. They struggled on the mound, and they struggled at the plate. However, that doesn't mean everyone struggled. Here are the hitters who performed well in May. This will likely come as no surprise to those watching the sluggish offense provided by the Brewers in May, but there has been one standout amidst the team’s struggles to get on base and pressure opposing pitchers with regularity. They have had too many black holes in the line-up, but this player has hit day in, day out for them. Before we get to the May Hitter of the month, here are a few players who were under considerations after putting together a solid May. Honorable Mentions Christian Yelich Yelich hit .284 in the month of May with four home runs, four doubles, and 11 walks to just 15 strikeouts (a 15% strikeout rate), a vast improvement of the 34 he tallied in April. On top of a week-long power binge, after which he was sidelined with a back injury sliding into three consecutive bases, he has provided a consistent on base presence with a .376 OBP and .842 OPS overall, teasing many fans at the notion that he isn’t far away from rekindling his best form. The biggest sign is when he pulls the ball more in the air, but it should be noted that he currently has a .285 xBA and .488 xSlg, so he has hit into a reasonable amount of misfortune so far this season. Could June be the month Yelich awakens from his slumber? Rowdy Tellez Our April hitter of the month produced another solid effort at the plate, going .240/.329/.427 for a .756 OPS, including four home runs. He hasn’t had one of his hot streaks this month, but it’s only a matter of time before he runs into one and carries the Brewers for a week or so. Perhaps more concerning is that he’s only tallied six RBI in 81 plate appearances, the Brewers need to give him more of a platform with men on base, and he needs to do a better job at getting the ball in the air to avoid the double plays that can plague him. William Contreras His bat was slightly stagnant to begin the month, but it started to heat up late in the month, with six RBI across his last five games, including three home runs. Sporting a .194/.301/.444 line, he was hitting far too many grounders straight into the dirt, but has begun to come out of his funk, and his .756 OPS has gone a long way to helping the Brewers through this tough stretch of games. Interestingly, his return has coincided with an uptick in games at which Victor Caratini has started as catcher, perhaps a great balance behind the plate is needed for him given this is his first season as primary catcher. Hitter of the Month Owen Miller Owen Miller has been, quite simply, outstanding for the Brewers. He has shown an aggressiveness early in counts. He is regularly making solid, aerial contact on targeted pitches. The hometown kid also added the ability to turn on inside pitches for some big home runs this last month. All expectations of Miller were of him being a bit, role player with an average to subpar bat, but ever since spring training, he has raked. He’s hit .363 with seven doubles and four home runs in May with a 15.6% strikeout rate, and has greatly deserved the increased playing time and move up the batting order. Miller’s short, compact stroke is complimented by his understanding of the pitches he can do damage on. While he struggles more in the outer third of the zone, he waits patiently for pitches on the middle and inside that he can pull, with over 80% of his batted balls going to straightaway center or the pull side. He is in the 91st percentile for whiff rate, only missing four balls in the upper third of the zone all year long, while creating regular line drives from most areas of the strike zone, a big reason for his high level of productivity so far this season. Without his run of form, the Brewers would likely be sitting below .500 by now, now it’s up to the rest of the line-up to start bringing him in more often. Aside from his bat, he has also shown solid range in defense across almost every position on the infield, as well as causing some havoc in the bases when required, such as when he scored on a steal of second base, taking an aggressive send to reach home plate in a tight encounter. What are your thoughts of the month Owen Miller had in May? How would you rank these candidates? Leave a comment below. View full article
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I have to say given their rotation I think the cubs are far more likely, with the cardinals and injury in the rotation away from the almost unplayable Matz and Woodford starting again this year The Reds are looking good with definite reinforcements to come though Elly de la Cruz isn't really as sound at shortstop as the hype
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The Brewers have struggled in the month of May with injuries to their rotation, missing Brandon Woodruff, Wade Miley, Aaron Ashby and getting worry-inducing performances from Freddy Peralta. How tough has it been? They had to give Julio Teheran an MLB deal! That being said, there have been some standouts, and one man in particular. Before we name our Pitcher of the Month, here are the others who were considered. Honorable Mentions Corbin Burnes Burnes has a level of expectation on him that other pitchers just don’t, purely because of how dominant he’s been for the Brewers over the last few seasons. He hasn’t looked at all like the Cy Young version of himself, with his strikeout and whiff rates in particular dropping considerably. However, he has shown an ability to pitch through the trouble, being the only Brewers starter to regularly eat innings. He has recorded a 3.3 ERA in May, including an eight-strikeout, seven-inning performance against the San Francisco Giants, with only a blow up against the Houston Astros to really tarnish his numbers. He gave up six home runs, far more than he would expect, but his strikeout rates did trend upwards from the month of April in a glimmer of hope that he can find a higher level of performance once again. Devin Williams Williams gave up just three hits in the month of May, although one was an inconsequential home run, and is still perfect in save opportunities and in tied games. Due to his reduced workload (in part because of a lack of winning situations, and also extending leads late) he has been used for more multi-inning work, including three straight multi-inning saves. He does have the propensity to walk batters on occasion, but he’s as cold as ice when men are on base, holding opponents to a .107 batting average. As one of the few Brewers who have been as high quality as expected, he’s been invaluable in keeping the heads above water with the currently stacked injured list. Adrian Houser The blow-up start against the Toronto Blue Jays has really hurt his May numbers, with a lot of ground balls getting through the infield in both some fielding mishaps and some bad batted ball luck. However, prior to that, he showed a revised arsenal with increased usage of his four-seamer to left-handers that made a significant difference to his effectiveness. He had a 2.25 ERA in May prior to his start against the Blue Jays, while going 11 1/3 innings combined against the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros stacked, in form line-ups without giving up a solitary run. Houser will have occasional games where balls get through the infield, and he does rely heavily on his defense, but he’ll be hoping to brush his last start off and take his form through June. Pitcher of the Month - Joel Payamps Joel Payamps has been outstanding in this last month, increasingly being used in big situations during games and coming up clutch, most notably in the series against the Houston Astros where he came in for clean-up duty twice against the heart of the order, striking out all four batters faced with runners in scoring position. He has a 1.38 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 14 innings of work, holding hitters to an OPS of .559. He is ninth in the league for relievers Win Probability Added during this stretch, initiating a lot of weak contact while also using his improved slider to strike out hitters at a far higher rate than expected, going from 6.6 K/9 in 2022 to 9.9 K/9 so far this season. This is less to do with absurd chase rates or swing and miss stuff, but he keeps hitters off balance in the strike zone, then uses slider down and away to get outs with two strikes. Most important is the exit velocity, and as you can see below, he doesn’t allow too much hard contact. When he keeps the four seamer up in the zone, it's nearly impossible to square up. The sinker has been hit hard, but the movement profile does allow his slider to play better. Payamps is currently in the 91st percentile for average exit velocity, 94th percentile for walk rate and 78th percentile for strikeout rate.’ He has been an excellent addition for the Brewers, and they’ll hope to see it continue through June. So what do you think of the choice for Brewers pitcher of the year? How would you rank their performances? What does it mean? Leave some comments below.
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Another month of the season gone by. We are officially one-third of the way through the 2023 season. But, it's time to look at May in the rear-view mirror and try to find some highlights. Or, maybe the choice for Pitcher of the Year is indicative of the Brewers month? The Brewers have struggled in the month of May with injuries to their rotation, missing Brandon Woodruff, Wade Miley, Aaron Ashby and getting worry-inducing performances from Freddy Peralta. How tough has it been? They had to give Julio Teheran an MLB deal! That being said, there have been some standouts, and one man in particular. Before we name our Pitcher of the Month, here are the others who were considered. Honorable Mentions Corbin Burnes Burnes has a level of expectation on him that other pitchers just don’t, purely because of how dominant he’s been for the Brewers over the last few seasons. He hasn’t looked at all like the Cy Young version of himself, with his strikeout and whiff rates in particular dropping considerably. However, he has shown an ability to pitch through the trouble, being the only Brewers starter to regularly eat innings. He has recorded a 3.3 ERA in May, including an eight-strikeout, seven-inning performance against the San Francisco Giants, with only a blow up against the Houston Astros to really tarnish his numbers. He gave up six home runs, far more than he would expect, but his strikeout rates did trend upwards from the month of April in a glimmer of hope that he can find a higher level of performance once again. Devin Williams Williams gave up just three hits in the month of May, although one was an inconsequential home run, and is still perfect in save opportunities and in tied games. Due to his reduced workload (in part because of a lack of winning situations, and also extending leads late) he has been used for more multi-inning work, including three straight multi-inning saves. He does have the propensity to walk batters on occasion, but he’s as cold as ice when men are on base, holding opponents to a .107 batting average. As one of the few Brewers who have been as high quality as expected, he’s been invaluable in keeping the heads above water with the currently stacked injured list. Adrian Houser The blow-up start against the Toronto Blue Jays has really hurt his May numbers, with a lot of ground balls getting through the infield in both some fielding mishaps and some bad batted ball luck. However, prior to that, he showed a revised arsenal with increased usage of his four-seamer to left-handers that made a significant difference to his effectiveness. He had a 2.25 ERA in May prior to his start against the Blue Jays, while going 11 1/3 innings combined against the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros stacked, in form line-ups without giving up a solitary run. Houser will have occasional games where balls get through the infield, and he does rely heavily on his defense, but he’ll be hoping to brush his last start off and take his form through June. Pitcher of the Month - Joel Payamps Joel Payamps has been outstanding in this last month, increasingly being used in big situations during games and coming up clutch, most notably in the series against the Houston Astros where he came in for clean-up duty twice against the heart of the order, striking out all four batters faced with runners in scoring position. He has a 1.38 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 14 innings of work, holding hitters to an OPS of .559. He is ninth in the league for relievers Win Probability Added during this stretch, initiating a lot of weak contact while also using his improved slider to strike out hitters at a far higher rate than expected, going from 6.6 K/9 in 2022 to 9.9 K/9 so far this season. This is less to do with absurd chase rates or swing and miss stuff, but he keeps hitters off balance in the strike zone, then uses slider down and away to get outs with two strikes. Most important is the exit velocity, and as you can see below, he doesn’t allow too much hard contact. When he keeps the four seamer up in the zone, it's nearly impossible to square up. The sinker has been hit hard, but the movement profile does allow his slider to play better. Payamps is currently in the 91st percentile for average exit velocity, 94th percentile for walk rate and 78th percentile for strikeout rate.’ He has been an excellent addition for the Brewers, and they’ll hope to see it continue through June. So what do you think of the choice for Brewers pitcher of the year? How would you rank their performances? What does it mean? Leave some comments below. View full article
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I absolutely agree, but overhauling this line-up just doesn't happen by trades this time of the season. It's more a spark plug needed, and throughout May Turang, Taylor and Wiemer were black holes, just sucking the life out of things. Wiemer has shown better contact in the last few games, and what a difference that could make, and Turang may head down once Urias is back (particularly as Monasterio has actually looked quite solid at the plate just judging by approach and contact alone), while Taylor will get hot at some point. I think it's more incremental improvements needed from big players than just all new players, but along with this, Adames needs to step up. He shines most with men on base, always has, so could do better as a cleanup hitter too
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What Level of Threat Does Each NL Central Team Pose to the Brewers?
Jake McKibbin posted an article in Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates The Pirates had a supremely strong start to the season, led by MVP-level months from ex-Brewer Andrew McCutchen, Jack Suwinski, Bryan Reynolds, Rodolfo Castro and Connor Joe. Ji Hwan Bae was stealing bases at will, and they were almost impossible to contain offensively. Since then, however, only Suwinski has maintained his form, with 11 home runs and an .859 OPS, with McCutchen and Reynolds cooling off a little, and overall, they have produced a 4.78 ERA with a .636 OPS in the last 30 days. While Suwinski’s breakout may be legitimate (with his 92nd percentile barrel rate, 97th percentile chase rate and raw speed), he does swing and miss a lot in the zone, with an xBA of just .212 and a strikeout rate of 32.5%. The Pirates need more over-performing players to mount a realistic challenge, especially given that their pitching staff has shown real potential. Mitch Keller is having a breakout season, and Vince Velasquez looks promising for a change, while Roansy Contreras is finding his feet at the major-league level. Threat level: 3/10 The Pirates look more like the team we expected in this past month, and barring a surging offense, appear more likely to have a significant drop off than to tread water and emerge with even a .500 record. Chicago Cubs The Cubs also struggled mightily in the month of May, going 10-18 after riding a revived Cody Bellinger (albeit with his underlying stats not quite so promising), exemplary performances from Justin Steele and Marcus Stroman, as well as some solid Drew Smyly starts to a strong April record. However, their rotation tails off considerably with Jameson Taillon recording an 8.04 ERA, and Hayden Wesneski still figuring things out. Their bullpen has been anything but solid, with only Mark Leiter and Adbert Alzolay showing up well. Ex-Brewer Brad Boxberger has a 5.52 ERA, and Michael Fulmer has pitched in 25 games to a 7.36 ERA. On offense, they’ve looked much more solid and consistent than in previous seasons, with Dansby Swanson’s 19 extra-base hits to go with a .366 on-base percentage; and Patrick Wisdom doing his best Keston Hiura impression, hitting .213 with 14 home runs and a 35.9% strikeout rate. Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ are as solid as ever, with .385 and .394 on-base percentages and .800+ OPSes. They’ve also brought in another Keston lookalike in Christopher Morel, who has hit nine home runs in just 75 at-bats, with a 38.7% strikeout rate, taking his form from Triple A straight into the majors and igniting the Cubs offense. Threat Level: 7/10 The Cubs have the lineup to hurt teams, with big sluggers and men with high OBPs complementing each other well, but they need more pitching help behind the big two starters. If they pick up someone solid for the back end of their rotation, they could be a serious threat to the Brewers, and they look much more likely to string together a winning streak than Milwaukee do at this point in time. Cincinnati Reds The Reds came into this season hoping to show some signs of future promise with their talented farm system coming through, but not to be in the mix for a playoff spot. However, they are currently three games back, and have some real life about their team. The pitching staff hasn’t been what they hoped, with Hunter Greene (4.18 ERA) and Graham Ashcraft (5.55 ERA) expected to lead the rotation and be a formidable 1-2 punch. Greene has serious strikeout stuff, but a WHIP of 1.38 with an average of 1.28 home runs per nine, and an inability to go deep in games is hurting him. Ashcraft was exceptional last season, but has a 1.96 K/BB ratio and a 1.49 WHIP which has caused him serious trouble. On the brighter side for the Reds, their infield has been one of the best in the big leagues since Matt McLain arrived. He has a 1.056 OPS, albeit with a .531 BABIP which isn’t sustainable. TJ Fridel has also benefited from a little luck in posting an .891 OPS, but with Spencer Steer, Jonathan India and McLain posting .800+ OPS, and the versatile Nick Senzel and Kevin Newman posting solid hitting numbers, the Reds’ infield has been exceptional. They have struggled a little more from the corner outfield spots, but this lineup has been a big reason for their recent success, maintaining a .500 record through May. Threat Level: 6/10 If the top of the rotation can return to the levels they were producing in September last year, which gave the fan base a lot of hope coming into the season, then they are a legitimate force. Also, the main reason for a slight bump in their threat level, is the large, looming Elly de la Cruz, who is on a Tatis-esque tear in Triple A and could make this lineup truly fearsome. This may be a season too early for the Reds, but they have the potential to stay close and cause some havoc, especially if the pitchers can turn it around. St Louis Cardinals The Cardinals endured one of the worst starts to the season in their history, but have rebounded well with a couple of win streaks against the Brewers and the Dodgers. They have petered out a little in their last few games, going 5-5 over their last ten, and still struggling with a pitching staff comprised of an aging Adam Wainwright, an almost unplayable Steven Matz, and an up-and-down Jack Flaherty; Jordan Montgomery struggling recently; and only Miles Mikolas showing some consistent performances (after a rough start). Hitting-wise, Jordan Walker was projected as a phenom early doors, but his atrocious defense in right field (-6 DRS) as well as his over-hyped bat just wasn’t quite ready the first time around. The outfield, outside of currently injured Lars Nootbaar, has struggled both defensively and offensively, even playing Tommy Edman in right field, and Alec Burleson being both a liability in the field and underperforming with the bat (given his minor-league numbers last season, they may have expected a hitting machine). Paul Goldschmidt has been his usual self, with 2.1 WAR through May, and Nolan Arenado has had a hot streak that carried the Cardinals for a few weeks, but they are still struggling for consistency. This is a potent lineup, with Donovan, Goldschmidt, Arenado, an on-fire Paul DeJong, and Tommy Edman all going well this month. Threat Level: 6/10 Realistically, the Cardinals can’t expect to win every game by scoring double-digit runs, but it’s also clear they don’t need quite as good a staff as the Brewers to eke out wins. If several of the starters can perform on a consistent, sub-4.00 ERA basis, then they could ignite their challenge, but they are still eight games below a .500 record and can ill afford another bad run. They also haven’t dealt with key player injuries (Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill weren’t exactly performing strongly when they went down), and if any of their pitchers, or senior hitters, go down for a while, that could snuff out their season for good. June will be a key month for them in terms of how they approach the trade deadline, as they have a lot of hitting talent in their farm system, and they will be wanting to reinforce their rotation, most of whom are free agents at the end of the year. -
The Milwaukee Brewers’ failure to capitalize on the few soft spots in their schedule, such as series against the Giants and the Rockies, have enabled other teams in the division to claw back to within four and a half games of the lead. So how are those rivals doing, as we leave May behind? Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports Pittsburgh Pirates The Pirates had a supremely strong start to the season, led by MVP-level months from ex-Brewer Andrew McCutchen, Jack Suwinski, Bryan Reynolds, Rodolfo Castro and Connor Joe. Ji Hwan Bae was stealing bases at will, and they were almost impossible to contain offensively. Since then, however, only Suwinski has maintained his form, with 11 home runs and an .859 OPS, with McCutchen and Reynolds cooling off a little, and overall, they have produced a 4.78 ERA with a .636 OPS in the last 30 days. While Suwinski’s breakout may be legitimate (with his 92nd percentile barrel rate, 97th percentile chase rate and raw speed), he does swing and miss a lot in the zone, with an xBA of just .212 and a strikeout rate of 32.5%. The Pirates need more over-performing players to mount a realistic challenge, especially given that their pitching staff has shown real potential. Mitch Keller is having a breakout season, and Vince Velasquez looks promising for a change, while Roansy Contreras is finding his feet at the major-league level. Threat level: 3/10 The Pirates look more like the team we expected in this past month, and barring a surging offense, appear more likely to have a significant drop off than to tread water and emerge with even a .500 record. Chicago Cubs The Cubs also struggled mightily in the month of May, going 10-18 after riding a revived Cody Bellinger (albeit with his underlying stats not quite so promising), exemplary performances from Justin Steele and Marcus Stroman, as well as some solid Drew Smyly starts to a strong April record. However, their rotation tails off considerably with Jameson Taillon recording an 8.04 ERA, and Hayden Wesneski still figuring things out. Their bullpen has been anything but solid, with only Mark Leiter and Adbert Alzolay showing up well. Ex-Brewer Brad Boxberger has a 5.52 ERA, and Michael Fulmer has pitched in 25 games to a 7.36 ERA. On offense, they’ve looked much more solid and consistent than in previous seasons, with Dansby Swanson’s 19 extra-base hits to go with a .366 on-base percentage; and Patrick Wisdom doing his best Keston Hiura impression, hitting .213 with 14 home runs and a 35.9% strikeout rate. Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ are as solid as ever, with .385 and .394 on-base percentages and .800+ OPSes. They’ve also brought in another Keston lookalike in Christopher Morel, who has hit nine home runs in just 75 at-bats, with a 38.7% strikeout rate, taking his form from Triple A straight into the majors and igniting the Cubs offense. Threat Level: 7/10 The Cubs have the lineup to hurt teams, with big sluggers and men with high OBPs complementing each other well, but they need more pitching help behind the big two starters. If they pick up someone solid for the back end of their rotation, they could be a serious threat to the Brewers, and they look much more likely to string together a winning streak than Milwaukee do at this point in time. Cincinnati Reds The Reds came into this season hoping to show some signs of future promise with their talented farm system coming through, but not to be in the mix for a playoff spot. However, they are currently three games back, and have some real life about their team. The pitching staff hasn’t been what they hoped, with Hunter Greene (4.18 ERA) and Graham Ashcraft (5.55 ERA) expected to lead the rotation and be a formidable 1-2 punch. Greene has serious strikeout stuff, but a WHIP of 1.38 with an average of 1.28 home runs per nine, and an inability to go deep in games is hurting him. Ashcraft was exceptional last season, but has a 1.96 K/BB ratio and a 1.49 WHIP which has caused him serious trouble. On the brighter side for the Reds, their infield has been one of the best in the big leagues since Matt McLain arrived. He has a 1.056 OPS, albeit with a .531 BABIP which isn’t sustainable. TJ Fridel has also benefited from a little luck in posting an .891 OPS, but with Spencer Steer, Jonathan India and McLain posting .800+ OPS, and the versatile Nick Senzel and Kevin Newman posting solid hitting numbers, the Reds’ infield has been exceptional. They have struggled a little more from the corner outfield spots, but this lineup has been a big reason for their recent success, maintaining a .500 record through May. Threat Level: 6/10 If the top of the rotation can return to the levels they were producing in September last year, which gave the fan base a lot of hope coming into the season, then they are a legitimate force. Also, the main reason for a slight bump in their threat level, is the large, looming Elly de la Cruz, who is on a Tatis-esque tear in Triple A and could make this lineup truly fearsome. This may be a season too early for the Reds, but they have the potential to stay close and cause some havoc, especially if the pitchers can turn it around. St Louis Cardinals The Cardinals endured one of the worst starts to the season in their history, but have rebounded well with a couple of win streaks against the Brewers and the Dodgers. They have petered out a little in their last few games, going 5-5 over their last ten, and still struggling with a pitching staff comprised of an aging Adam Wainwright, an almost unplayable Steven Matz, and an up-and-down Jack Flaherty; Jordan Montgomery struggling recently; and only Miles Mikolas showing some consistent performances (after a rough start). Hitting-wise, Jordan Walker was projected as a phenom early doors, but his atrocious defense in right field (-6 DRS) as well as his over-hyped bat just wasn’t quite ready the first time around. The outfield, outside of currently injured Lars Nootbaar, has struggled both defensively and offensively, even playing Tommy Edman in right field, and Alec Burleson being both a liability in the field and underperforming with the bat (given his minor-league numbers last season, they may have expected a hitting machine). Paul Goldschmidt has been his usual self, with 2.1 WAR through May, and Nolan Arenado has had a hot streak that carried the Cardinals for a few weeks, but they are still struggling for consistency. This is a potent lineup, with Donovan, Goldschmidt, Arenado, an on-fire Paul DeJong, and Tommy Edman all going well this month. Threat Level: 6/10 Realistically, the Cardinals can’t expect to win every game by scoring double-digit runs, but it’s also clear they don’t need quite as good a staff as the Brewers to eke out wins. If several of the starters can perform on a consistent, sub-4.00 ERA basis, then they could ignite their challenge, but they are still eight games below a .500 record and can ill afford another bad run. They also haven’t dealt with key player injuries (Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill weren’t exactly performing strongly when they went down), and if any of their pitchers, or senior hitters, go down for a while, that could snuff out their season for good. June will be a key month for them in terms of how they approach the trade deadline, as they have a lot of hitting talent in their farm system, and they will be wanting to reinforce their rotation, most of whom are free agents at the end of the year. View full article
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Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
Jake McKibbin replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
That and he isn't going to be singles only, he's hit his fair share of doubles and triples and showed a unique ability to make solid, repeated contact last season (albeit that hadn't quite translated to start this year) -
This is such a shame as it's the perfect situation for hiura to come up. Still hopefully counsell uses the added versatility well!
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It’s no secret that the Brewers have recently struggled to put together hits, and score runs, with any sort of regularity. Coupled with underperforming pitchers and a densely-populated injured list, it has resulted in most of their wins being tight, edgy affairs, particularly in the month of May, often relying on immaculate bullpen work. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports One thing with which they have really struggled is turning games on their heads, with poor showings in the late innings and an inability to exert material pressure on the opposing bullpen. So far this year, the Brewers have managed to tie or take the lead just twice from a deficit in the seventh inning, and just once in the eighth inning. They have, as of yet, failed to take a lead in the ninth inning. Their hitting hasn’t been good enough, and while it’s important to lay out that coming back from 18 runs behind isn’t likely in the final inning, you could still expect them to have outperformed the others in their division, as weak as it is at this present time. The Cubs and the Cardinals have each come back five times from a deficit in the seventh. The Reds have come back on an astonishing nine occasions already. When you look at what those three teams are providing, the answer is fairly obvious: consistent hitting–players at home in the batter's box and who can create solid contact with far greater regularity than the Brewers are doing. It gets even worse. You would think trailing in the fourth inning would provide reasonable chances of a turnaround. However, the Brewers have won less than one in 10 of those games so far. By contrast, they have only lost one out of the 20 games in which they led after the fourth. They have an ability to grind through close games and ensure they emerge on the winning side, but they need to have an increased level of performance when trailing, too, if they are to keep themselves above water until the injury bug abates. One other scoreboard situation is that the Brewers have, in the last few years, been able to call game with regularity when they have a lead in the late innings, but they have a winning percentage of just .500 in games that are tied going into the eighth. Peter Strzelecki and Matt Bush have been up and down: Bush due to his injury, and Strzelecki having gone away from the high-strikeout approach that worked so well for him last season. Bush is set to begin throwing on the mound soon, and if he is the version that the Texas Rangers had last season, the Brewers will feel much happier about themselves in these situations, especially with the effectiveness of Joel Payamps so far this year. Championship-caliber teams cannot give up on games just three innings in, and the Brewers will need to step it up in these situations. The club has lost some of the spark it had earlier in the season, especially with the Freshmen’s struggles (three hits combined over the last week in 39 total at-bats) and the lack of a high-performing veteran presence in the lineup is taking its toll. The return of Luis Urias may fill a gaping hole in the Brewers lineup so far, but even then, the Brewers need Christian Yelich, Willy Adames, and Rowdy Tellez to perform with far more regularity than we have recently seen. View full article

