Jake McKibbin

This is such a shame as it's the perfect situation for hiura to come up. Still hopefully counsell uses the added versatility well!

Absolutely good hitters help, but it's like this team doesn't have the belief at times, almost resigning themselves to losses facing higher quality relievers Also it is tough to come back from 17 runs down, but they should be competing better and I think that's my issue this far in the season

It’s no secret that the Brewers have recently struggled to put together hits, and score runs, with any sort of regularity. Coupled with underperforming pitchers and a densely-populated injured list, it has resulted in most of their wins being tight, edgy affairs, particularly in the month of May, often relying on immaculate bullpen work. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports One thing with which they have really struggled is turning games on their heads, with poor showings in the late innings and an inability to exert material pressure on the opposing bullpen. So far this year, the Brewers have managed to tie or take the lead just twice from a deficit in the seventh inning, and just once in the eighth inning. They have, as of yet, failed to take a lead in the ninth inning. Their hitting hasn’t been good enough, and while it’s important to lay out that coming back from 18 runs behind isn’t likely in the final inning, you could still expect them to have outperformed the others in their division, as weak as it is at this present time. The Cubs and the Cardinals have each come back five times from a deficit in the seventh. The Reds have come back on an astonishing nine occasions already. When you look at what those three teams are providing, the answer is fairly obvious: consistent hitting–players at home in the batter's box and who can create solid contact with far greater regularity than the Brewers are doing. It gets even worse. You would think trailing in the fourth inning would provide reasonable chances of a turnaround. However, the Brewers have won less than one in 10 of those games so far. By contrast, they have only lost one out of the 20 games in which they led after the fourth. They have an ability to grind through close games and ensure they emerge on the winning side, but they need to have an increased level of performance when trailing, too, if they are to keep themselves above water until the injury bug abates. One other scoreboard situation is that the Brewers have, in the last few years, been able to call game with regularity when they have a lead in the late innings, but they have a winning percentage of just .500 in games that are tied going into the eighth. Peter Strzelecki and Matt Bush have been up and down: Bush due to his injury, and Strzelecki having gone away from the high-strikeout approach that worked so well for him last season. Bush is set to begin throwing on the mound soon, and if he is the version that the Texas Rangers had last season, the Brewers will feel much happier about themselves in these situations, especially with the effectiveness of Joel Payamps so far this year. Championship-caliber teams cannot give up on games just three innings in, and the Brewers will need to step it up in these situations. The club has lost some of the spark it had earlier in the season, especially with the Freshmen’s struggles (three hits combined over the last week in 39 total at-bats) and the lack of a high-performing veteran presence in the lineup is taking its toll. The return of Luis Urias may fill a gaping hole in the Brewers lineup so far, but even then, the Brewers need Christian Yelich, Willy Adames, and Rowdy Tellez to perform with far more regularity than we have recently seen. View full article

Major League Baseball wants the Brewers to massively improve American Family Field. If that's going to happen, we might as well kick around a few ideas for how that work could serve the fans, instead of just ownership and the league. Image courtesy of © Mike De Sisti / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via Imagn Content Services, LLC Some of the best features in and around stadiums lean on that for which the state or team name is renowned. There is a fine line between a standout feature and a tacky add-on, as the Brewers found out with the overhyped X-Golf launch. Better balances were struck with the 10,000-gallon tank in Tropicana Field with the cownose rays; the “water spectacular” at Kauffman stadium; and the Houston Astrodome’s connection to Houston Union Station. All have real standout features, and while the Brewers have Bernie’s slide, they could do with something a little more fan-friendly. Given that the Brewers recently got a mandate from MLB about refurbishing their stadium, they could expand this to both attach themselves more to the local community and increase the quirkiness of the stadium. With that in mind, here are a few ways the organization could accomplish both of these goals: A Pour-Your-Own Craft Beer Brewery and/or Distillery Over in Dublin, the tour of the Guinness factory, where you learn the techniques of the perfect pour, is one of the big attractions in the city. I remember my first and only trip to American Family Field, where they had just Miller Lite, Coors Light and Bud Light, which seemed strange, given the sheer number of craft breweries in Wisconsin. Enter a craft distillery, where people pay for a token and a glass, then top up a glass of their favorite local beer. Not only could this go a long way toward supporting local businesses during a time of economic strife, but it could add variety and a speed of service (depending on the number of stations available), as well as the more intimate touch of pouring it for yourself. You could add little details, in the form of cards identifying certain flavors within, or background information on the beers. A “Cheesehead” Snack Supplier Something the Brewers have embraced so far this season is the cheesehead, a term (semi-)affectionately used by fans of the Vikings. Not only is cheese an awesome snack to go with a beer, but the team could have a fancy-looking selection, varying options of boards you can take away, to even melted cheese stations with bread for a little fondue fun. Leaning into that for which Wisconsin is best known seems like a great thing, especially for out-of-state visitors who usually go mad for the little quirks. Again, it’s a way to support local businesses and give them some prominence, increasing the interaction between the baseball club and its community. The X-Golf seemed to be something that Mark Attanasio was very excited about, but it didn’t resonate with the fans at all. Specialist local food and beer, however, could be a great way to bring back some of that close-knit standing. There are rumors of a potential beer district in the making for the parking lot, something I’m sure tailgaters could take good advantage of. What would you like to see in American Family Field as a standout attraction? View full article

i have a great stat that you're going to love Jesse Winker is unlikely to start tonight

Welcome back for part two Fanatics! In the first part, I had a look into all of the strengths Owen Miller has provided to the Brewers in each aspect of the game, but unfortunately, there are some weaknesses that are showing up as well that could result in a slump down the line. Let’s take a look at some of the warning signs about Miller’s performance so far. Image courtesy of © MARK HOFFMAN/MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINEL / USA TODAY NETWORK Arm Strength Owen Miller’s defense so far for the Brewers has been of seriously high quality, including some highlight-reel plays at third. However, at the hot corner especially, his arm strength can be an issue, with Miller favoring a quickish release over strength, and there have been a couple of infield hits with him over there that Brian Anderson’s arm just wouldn’t allow. He’s in the 9th percentile for arm strength, meaning he probably performs better at second base, but with Brice Turang being locked into that position, his versatility has allowed him to find regular playing time during his hot streak. The Expected Stats One thing Miller has seriously benefitted from so far is a .386 BABIP, resulting in a wOBA .080 higher than would expected thus far, based on his batted-ball data. His expected batting average of .276 and expected slugging average of .408 are still sturdy numbers that would significantly outperform his career bests, but they're also a far cry below his current .346/.548 marks. It also seems important to note that Miller isn’t hitting the ball harder, or in the air, more often than he was last season. He has a .946 BABIP on line drives so far, which is obviously unsustainable, and is finding a lot of holes both up the middle and to the pull side, while players like Christian Yelich seem to be finding the fielders with much more regularity. In short, there is due to be a period wherein Miller’s regular contact doesn’t yield the hits we’re seeing at the moment. There also could be a period of adjustment on the part of opposing pitchers, given his approach changing (as mentioned in part one). Most of Miller’s damage has come up in the zone, which is also where he’s being pitched to most often. Given his contact rates, swing-and-miss is less of an issue for Miller as to whether he can make consistent aerial contact, yet he struggles to hit the ball hard when pitched down in the strike zone; This drop in velocity might be manageable for flares into the outfield if he could consistently keep the ball in the air. However, as you can see below, he creates a lot of low-value ground balls. Almost all of Miller’s loud contact comes on the inner and middle thirds of the plate, using his short swing to pull the ball with relative authority. He has just two hard-hit balls (out of 41 swings) on pitches on the outer third of the plate. In short, there are enough weaknesses that he may get figured out sometime in the next month or so. The biggest question will be if he can stay in the at-bat using his contact skills until he gets a pitch more to his liking. Sliders down and away are his biggest swing-and-miss pitch, and I’m surprised that (thus far) he hasn’t been exploited more, in the way we see Willy Adames being peppered with them. To Sum it Up I don’t think anyone expects Owen Miller to carry a .915 OPS through to the postseason, but the timing at which he has provided this run of form has been invaluable to the Brewers. He’s making solid contact, putting the ball in play and providing high-quality defense (93rd percentile for outs above average). He’s versatile, and is showing signs of hitting for power recently, having managed just six home runs in total across 2022. The Brewers must be incredibly happy with the production they’ve received so far, and long may it continue. View full article

Absolutely, he has a real ability to find the outfield grass, turning them into doubles very effectively. One of his best assets is how regularly he's putting the ball in play, I don't think that can be understated in a line-up like this, and in doing so he's giving himself every chance of a career year with some luck. Also, his home runs haven't been cheapies for the most part They don't, it only uses batted ball events, which are fair balls. This does include catches in foul territory though Absolutely, he's already provided more than the Brewers could have expected, and he's also done it for quite a while, raking throughout spring training if that counts for anything.

I think it's likely Teheran with the major league contract, they're just waiting for who to move on the 40 man (Cam Robinson has been awful recently and may be in jeopardy) Alexander is 70-80% fastball usage over last two years, and Yelich has been crushing those recently (its a 92mph sinker) He's just a starter, with 18 innings pitched in 21 games so far, just nine strikeouts and a ton of hard contact His slider when he's used it has actually been pretty good, but hopefully the lack of variety/off speed offerings are good for the likes of Turang and Wiemer

While the Milwaukee Brewers may be in a funk at the moment, one player of whom that cannot be said is Owen Miller. Brought in during the offseason in exchange for cash, he is a homegrown talent; a versatile infielder who can give you good defensive prowess; and a hitter who make solid enough contact to get hot for short stretches of time. The Brewers acquired him for his flexibility, but he's given them much more than that over the first two months. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports The Bat Owen Miller doesn’t hit the ball hard. At all. He is in the first percentile for average exit velocity, and he's 14th-lowest in total (Mike Brosseau is second-lowest) with just a 29% hard-hit rate. Yet, his expected batting average is in the 72nd percentile, so there is substance to his recent returns. He is a master at making contact, with a whiff rate in the 88th percentile across MLB, with a particular development in making contact on pitches outside the zone (76% in 2022 to 81% in 2023, both of which are extraordinarily high relative to the league average) allowing him to lengthen at-bats. A big reason for this is his improvement against breaking pitches, with his line of a .223 batting average and .354 slugging average last season rising to .286/.607 so far in 2023. He's also whiffing far less often this year on pitches below the strike zone. However, where he does most of his damage is in the middle and upper part of the strike zone, using his short, compact swing to turn on pitches. He's pulled the ball at a career-high rate of 40% so far this season, and have a look at his expected slugging numbers prior to his monster home runs against the Astros. This is, in part, from his 50% fly-ball rate on the inner third of the strike zone, but it should be noted that seven of his hits this season have come from pitchers trying to get in on his hands, including three doubles and a home run. He seems to have altered his approach in 2023 so far as well, using his short swing to stay on fastballs when he falls behind, but sitting and waiting on the putaway breaking pitches, and he's used this to great effect. Here is his stat line when he falls behind in the count: For consistency’s sake, let’s use the expected stats, and note a .348 increase in expected slugging on breaking pitches, and .122 increase in expected batting average against breaking pitches when behind in the count. Whereas, last year, he was a sitting duck in these counts, this year he seems to have a concerted plan of attack that’s bearing fruit. When pitchers try to get fastballs by him, he has just a 12.5% whiff rate against it, forcing them to vary their offerings. He’s striking out overall at just a 15% clip, putting the ball in play and giving himself a chance for good BABIP luck, something the Brewers desperately need with what can be a high-strikeout lineup, particularly when Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez and Brian Anderson aren’t streaking. It should also be noted that this level of performance isn’t entirely unheard-of for Miller. Throughout the minor leagues, he had an ISO that hovered around .140 for the most part, but in his final year before getting called up, he jumped to almost a .200 ISO, hitting 20 extra-base hits in 180 at-bats. The current home-run power surge may be a bit of a fluke, but he does have gap-to-gap power. The Glove In the last week, Miller’s range at third base has shown up in some highlight reel plays. Before the Brewers acquired him, the Guardians had tried to convert him to a first baseman due to injuries and needs specific to their roster, and there were some growing pains that ironed out toward the end of the year. (He had six fielding errors at first base, 10 in total, on the year.) However, he had a positive outs above average at each of first base (3 OAA), second base (2 OAA) and third base (1 OAA). Due to his underperformance at first base last year, he’s been regarded as a subpar defender, but that simply isn’t the case. Given Tellez's quality glove, but extremely limited range, Miller is an ideal late-inning substitute at first base. The Brewers love that option, as evidenced by the way Craig Counsell tries to ensure that they have both Tyrone Taylor and Joey Wiemer in the outfield when they’re protecting a lead. The Wheels For a first baseman, it’s very rare to be in the 84th percentile for sprint speed. Yet, Miller’s wheels have given him the opportunity to provide serious value to the Brewers as a potential center fielder, as well as playing into the premium range he gives at both the hot corner and the keystone. He has five stolen bases so far this year and has been caught only once, adding a little life on the basepaths. His key contribution to the win over the Astros on Tuesday night, stealing a base and then scoring on a wild pickoff attempt, was essential for some breathing space, and when you’re slumping, plays like that give the team a little momentum that’s needed to get over the hump. What have the Brewer fanatics thought about Miller’s performance so far? I’ll be back with a part two, so stay tuned! View full article

Jesse Winker is moved down in the lineup, Owen Miller hitting cleanup after Yelich, Adames, Tellez

Bielak's ERA is slightly misleading Had his best start of 2023 against the A's last time out, but unsure how much that says about him as a pitcher. He's currently got a WHIP of 1.77, mostly from hits rather than walks Hoping Houser can provide some solidity and the offense can cut loose a little, it's been a while coming but they're overdue a big crooked score. Adames was making better contact last night, without the results to show for it

Last Friday against the Tampa Bay Rays, Adrian Houser demonstrated that he still has the ability to keep the Brewers in any game, going six shutout innings against one of the best offenses in baseball. What was different from his first few outings of the year? Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports Ground Balls When he’s right, Adrian Houser is a ground-ball pitcher, whose sinker is regarded as one of the best in all of baseball for its late-seeming, sharp-looking movement. Having men on base has never unduly bothered him, due to his ability to generate double plays, but even so, he had a WHIP of 1.96 after his first two appearances on the mound. In both 2020 and 2021, Houser had an average launch angle on batted balls of 1.4 degrees. In 2022, that skyrocketed to 10.3 degrees, and he maintained this over his first two starts, getting an excessive amount of air outs and hard contact through the air–historically, an inauspicious indicator for him. He talked about how his sinker was flatter last year and they’ve been working to get that movement profile back, and against the Rays he did just that, generating 11 ground balls and allowing just three line drives, one fly ball and one pop up. The Four-Seamer Houser’s four seam fastball profiles more as a hybrid, with more horizontal movement (away from right-handers), but slightly less vertical rise than you would expect. It isn’t a significant pitch on its own, but he feels comfortable throwing it up in the zone, and even high out of the zone to give the hitters a different look when everything else he throws works down in the zone. (Corbin Burnes, take notes.) In particular, given the damage that has come with his sinker to left-handed hitters, he is now using the four seamer 41 percent of the time against lefties, when last season, the sinker was still his dominant pitch. Here are the results: 2022 Sinker to left-handed hitters - xBA .349, xSlg .571 2023 Four-seam Fastball to LHH - xBA .261, xSlg .323 He is incurring significantly less damage against his fastball to lefties so far, and it has allowed him to also use his sinker more sparingly, and more effectively as a result (.195 xBA in 2023 to LHH). This sample size may be skewed due to it being a new approach, and we’ll see how hitters manage once they’ve adjusted to it, but it shows some promise in what was once a glaring weakness in his repertoire. The Changeup One area in which he can still improve is with off-speed offerings, where he hasn’t quite gotten locked in location-wise. He is still generating the majority of his whiffs with the changeup, but when it gets hit, it’s yielding an expected slugging average (xSLG) of .460, significantly up from last year. Against the Rays, every change-up was lurking around the knees of the hitter, but previously, he was leaving them belt high (as you can see below). If he is to keep hitters off their balance and get ahead in the count, he needs his changeup to fire, but he has a .714 xBA against it when he leaves the pitch around the middle of the zone. It comes out of an identical arm slot to his slider, enhancing the effectiveness of both pitches, but is used almost entirely against left-handers (21.1% usage). Last season he had a 32.9% whiff rate and a .187 xBA against it, and he’ll need that if he is to step up for the Brewers and be the most effective version of himself at a time in which they need him most. View full article

I think my sister's heading to this game (she's at uni in cleveland) so fingers crossed she gets a cracking game, with Yelich hitting 6 home runs

Is there an issue with those teams being judged in hindsight as world series contenders/winners whereas at this time of the season, they were viewed as listless and awful? I think a lot of baseball is getting hot, and one recent issue is the lack of competent pitching sadly. Yelich's AB's were really good last night, a lot of loud contact, but there are holes in the line-up with Turang and Wiemer/Taylor that just kill momentum, as well as the Adames funk and Winker's lack of, well, anything fun to watch. But I'd disagree there isn't teh ability for the rookies to find their feet, for Woodruff and Burnes to be lights out from July onwards, with Miley and a return to form for Lauer, plus potential arrivals of Hiura/Frelick. There's potential there to be a terrifying team, it just hasn't clicked at all in the last month or so

Even amid a difficult stretch, the Brewers are a first-place team. Their problems are first-place problems, and there are signs that even they can be ameliorated. Here are five statistical foundations for optimism. Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Darin Ruf is the Lefty Masher We Craved Ruf has shown an ability to make consistent, solid contact for the Brewers, striking out just twice so far, with only one groundout, and a lot of hard-hit balls to the outfield. He has a 58-percent hard hit rate and an expected batting average of .286. He is a subpar defender, even at first base, but his bat has shown value so far, doing exactly what it says on the tin, with more to come with a little better batted-ball luck. His at bats have been high quality, with a good eye at the plate and an ability to foul off pitches and draw out the at-bat, and I’m looking forward to seeing more of him in the heart of the order against lefties. The Untapped Potential The Milwaukee Brewers have won two and lost three of their last five games against the surging St Louis Cardinals and red-hot Tampa Bay Rays, yet even despite a poor performance from Eric Lauer (again) they’ve managed to eke out wins while going through a rough stretch with the bats when they needed them. The Brewers had just four hits in 42 at-bats with runners in scoring position against two top teams, and could have brought in another couple of wins had they been even league-average in this area. It’s an area of the game that has a lot to do with luck, and a rebound next week could get the Brewers back to winning ways in the next series. Tyrone Taylor’s Manageable Misfortune Taylor’s current slash line is a measly .179/.203/.268 for a .471 OPS. However, his expected stats would be a .244 batting average and a slugging percentage of .391–by no means dominant, but a significant improvement. He smashed several balls against Shane McClanahan that were a mere few feet from extra-base hits or home runs. That could have been a real difference-maker in such a low-scoring game. Taylor has a strikeout rate of 20.3 percent at the moment, and is lifting the ball well, but he will need to improve even his expected statistics. The Brewers have the worst output in baseball from their right fielders so far this season. Brian Anderson’s All-Around Presence This past week, a lot of the Brewers’ big names struggled, with Christian Yelich out of action in the Cardinals series. Rowdy Tellez, Willy Adames, and William Contreras showed some signs of life in the final game, but certainly, the hope was for more consistent production from those three. Enter Brian Anderson, with a .407 on-base percentage in the last week, with three strikeouts, six walks and two long home runs. Add that to his barehanded catch and laser throw for the first out of the ninth inning on Sunday, and you can see how valuable he is for this streaky Brewers team. He’s gotten on base at a .373 clip in his last 15 games, having gone through a rough patch, and with the way in which the Brewers have been hitting for power recently, that is invaluable going forward. Joel Payamps: Shut-Down Innings Payamps is in the 94th percentile for hard hit rate, and the 96th for walk rate, with his added reliance on the slider resulting in incredible results for him. He is recording career lows with 4.8-percent barrel rate and 3.2-percent solid contact rates, as well as a career high 26.6-percent strikeout rate (it was 17.7% last season). The only issue is that he has a .426 xBA and a .636 xSLG against his sinker, and his four-seam fastball has performed fantastically thus far, so he may tweak his pitch mix a little bit as the season progresses. It’s undeniable that he has been an incredible weapon in the 7th inning for the Brewers relief corps. View full article

When do they take away the stickier ball at AA this season? Have they set a date?

Also we're four weeks into Frelick's 6-8 weeks prognosis

That Burnes interview is kind of worrying if he thinks he's thrown the ball well so far this year and getting what he wants... the peripherals aren't great and the serious drop in swing and miss must be concerning

Was it just me, or was there something seriously wrong with Burnes control on the cutter I've seen some reports about a change in his action with where he cocks his arm, I wonder if this is intentional or not, but he's just not been the same. The cutter location is vital for him, and he can't afford to be so wild with it, he's leaving himself in bad counts then leaving them over the heart of the plate.