Jake McKibbin

I don't know if the Brewers would want Busch, given how reluctant they can be with players that have no positional home, he's effectively a hitting machine that can't be put in the field, and also strikes out a ton so unsure he'll be on their radar. Maybe someone more like a Jose Ramos

I think you're looking for a win now team for sure... If Mets missed on Ohtani, Blue Jays in their huge league (though again they'll not trade Tiedemann unless they see something off), Dodgers (always), San Diego if they had any prospect capital, but realistically the Dodgers are the team for it. I'd maybe take Miller & Stone both, with another top 10 in their system, probably fair on all parts We wouldn't get Vargas in return, probably lower than that unless he underperforms And if this trade happens next year say, more likely we get one of stone/Miller and a top 10 prospect

This is actually awesome, only 15 mins in, but seems like the type of convo you'd get over a beer or two, he comes across so damn likeable

Baltimore are statistically the stingiest team with trading their prospects away, I think there's zero chance they'd offer either Henderson or Rodriguez to the brewers unless they believed there was a major issue with one of them

Hahaha I have too many personalities for one profile, what can I say :P I really agree here actually, and for the exact same reason. It's one of the reasons I was curious about the Junk and Wilson acquisitions, as we seem to be similar to the Dodgers in that pitchers use their stuff much more efficiently with us, usually adding spin rates and velo (I think Lauer accomplished both of these, used to be a 91-93mph pitcher?) A splitter is one of those that I think can be lethal out of the bullpen, you don't find many hitters with good expected stats against them, I think the question with Wilson is can he sequence it well with his fastball, which hasn't profiled well.. or will it make his fastball become a secondary pitch? EDIT: just realised you were asking if he was Jake Cousins

Historically his biggest issue has actually been injuries, he's spent a lot of time on the sidelines, so really hoping he can get a full season under his belt

Luis Urias has been a polarising figure for many Brewers fans, probably due to a differentiation in what people expect from the hot corner (a fact made worse with Nolan Arenado in the same division) and what is regularly produced by the position It should be noted that fangraphs estimates his value over the last two seasons to be in the $17-18 million range. Let's take a deeper look into what Urias has been developing, and where he can look to improve. Defense In Luis Urias first full season with the Brewers, he struggled massively with throwing the ball, particularly when he had time to overthink the process. The botching of a lot of the simpler plays led to a perception that he was a poor defender, but that isn't entirely the case. It's true that, per baseball savant, he was worth -11 outs above average in 2021, but over half of this was comprised of excessive playing time at shortstop. In 2021. he was worth -4 OAA at shortstop, and +4 OAA in a similar number of plays at second base. He is a largely league average defender in 2022 at third base (-1 OAA). His arm strength is in and around the 30th percentile, another reason why he shouldn't be played too often on the left hand side of the infield, but he has a high quality glove and great reaction times. He cut his errors down from 24 in 2021 to 14 in 2022, and he produces markedly less mistakes when playing on the right hand side of the infield, with just one mistake in 46 games. In other words, he's a high quality defender at second base, but a merely passable one at third, and should be kept well away from shortstop. This seems to be something the Brewers have worked to create, with the likes of Toro & Miller as suitable defenders at third base, and Turang's impending arrival. Hitting Urias took a big step forward offensively from his production with San Diego. His barrel rate went from a previous high of 4.4% in 2019, to 9.3% in 2021, and developing his hard hit rate too. He has maintained this throughout 2022, albeit a slight drop off, but his biggest weakness currently is not quite so obvious. He's very good at covering the majority of the zone well, even controlling his whiff rates outside the zone. the issue with this is how often he generates weak contact and an easy out from this position, and anything on the inner third of the plate; As you can see, Urias really struggles to generate quality exit velocities from these positions, and has allowed him to be targeted repeatedly, and successfully, high and inside by the four seam fastball. The danger for pitchers comes if they leak that fastball further away from him, at which point he's very good at creating hard contact and elevating the ball; he managed to average 14.2 degrees of elevation in 2021 and further increased that to an 18 degree launch angle in 2022. If the ball is belt high, he hits fly balls almost 50% of the time, as well as strong elevation rates in the upper half of the strike zone too when he isn't cramped for room. An interesting point of development for Urias is how much stronger he's become in doing damage when he gets ahead in the count. He receives off-speed in these counts around ten percent of the time, so it's more negligible, but the quality of contact on both breaking pitches and fastballs has skyrocketed. It's breaking balls in particular that draw the eye here, with a significant jump in both exit velocity and expected slugging. However he faced far fewer favourable counts in 2022, due largely to a change in approach. Despite facing 62% of first pitch strikes, he swung on the first pitch only 21% of the time, down from 30% in 2021. This could be for a number of reasons, but during the course of the season we know that he was struggling with his wrist, and a change in approach to grind out the AB's instead of looking to do damage may have caused him to create lower exit velocities than expected. in addition, he was regarded as a plus player when it comes to his swing/take decisions, in 2021 having a +17 run differential. Yet in 2022, this significantly as a result of a -15 score for pitches taken over the heart of the plate. A lot of people in the Brewers camp were raving about his physical development last off season and the additional power he was impacting the ball with, yet we didn't really see that throughout 2022. I think a tweak in his approach could allow us to see more damage from his bat in 2023. Regarding the wrist injury mentioned above, a loot at his splits throughout the year highlight this quite well. He maintained very strong walk rates for the most part when he was struggling at the plate, topping out at 13% in August. Yet when he developed through the issue you could see a marked improvement, hitting .328/.415/.507 in September/October, stepping up when Brewers needed him most and giving a glimpse of what he could do if he can remain healthy throughout 2023. Conclusion If playing predominantly at second base in the coming season, Urias could quite possibly be a 4-5 WAR player should he tap into his offensive capabilities. We need to see if he can replicate his performance at the end of last year, as well as tightening up on those inside pitches, doing a better job of pulling his hands in and muscling the ball into the outfield with more authority on these pitches. If he can manage these, he can show himself off as one of the premier second basemen in the league.

Another outrageously cool name

I think the max exit velocity you mention was by Oneil Cruz? Mitchell I think had a top EV of 109.9mph! He also had expected BA of .187 and xSLG of .339, so while with his speed I would suspect he outdoes his expected stats, I think with his ground ball rate and his propensity to swing and miss, he may struggle to put anywhere quite close to a .265/.324/.462 line without some swing changes, I agree he could do well swiping bases when he gets on, one of those guys you almost know is going to steal. His floor is quite high with the defense etc. He's a high variance player who could go a number of ways, granted, but unsure he's quite like this? Much more like a bottom of the line-up guy than someone leadoff I would suggest

What can I say, I'm an eternal optimist, though I do think there'll be some adjustment needed for Wiemer in the bigs, just to get used to the pitching (as Judge got) The similarities were more stark the more I got into this piece, which surprised me, but I would say that Judge has a much more compact swing with more raw power there, which may have acclimatised better in the majors

This is a big statement, I know, but hear me out on this one, and you might find the two are a lot more similar that you’d originally think. In terms profile of the player profiles, they are remarkably similar, both very tall players with access to huge raw power, a surprisingly advanced hit tool, the speed to play centre field if needed, and absolute cannons for throwing arms. One could argue that Judge has access to more power given the size of his frame, and Weimer has access to more speed, but they are relatively similar in a lot of aspects. Take a look at their performance lines from each of their first two seasons in the minors: Level Avg OBP SLG OPS SO % HR SB Aaron Judge A/A+ .308 .419 .486 .905 23.3% 17 1 Joey Weimer A/A+ .296 .403 .556 .958 22.2% 27 30 Aaron Judge AA/AAA .255 .330 .448 .777 26.7% 20 0 Joey Weimer AA/AAA .256 .336 .465 .801 26.8% 21 31 As you can see, the entire second season is eerily similar for the two players as they made their way to the upper levels of the minors. The real standout is the strikeout rate, which is actually lower for Weimer despite scouts preferring Judge’s ability to cover the plate as a prospect. Judge had an injury or two to deal with in his second year in the minors, but finished on a hot streak in AAA, was called up to the majors, and produced a .608 OPS in 95 plate appearances. He didn’t really take off until the following year where he mashed 52 home runs and a 1.049 OPS after adjusting to major league pitching. However he did struggle initially in his first call-up to AAA, with an adjustment period needed before finding his swing at the plate. Joey Weimer, having won the Brewers pipeline prospect of the year honours in 2021 for his outstanding first season, picked up a wrist injury in the middle of his second season, resulting in a dramatic fall in output. He hit just for an OPS of .687 in June and .442 in July, before returning to reduce his strikeout rate, his contact and his power numbers to a level on par with his first season, even despite the rapid promotions. He finished the season in September with 15 walks vs 10 strikeouts, 8 XBH in 63 AB’s and a slash line of .302/.425/.476, tantalising us with a glimpse of better plate coverage and what that could mean for him this coming season. Judge has also been ranked higher on most prospect lists, due to a combination of his draft position and his college numbers, whereas Weimer didn’t start tapping into his power until he hit professional baseball. He hadn’t managed more than 6 homers in a spring period, which could explain the difference in hype. Judge would also be regarded as having a better hit tool, and more raw power due to his sizeable frame, and it was generally considered that he had quite a short swing to the ball, not fully utilising the power in his 125kg frame. Weimer, on the other hand has a more chaotic swing, with huge bat speed and hand speed, creating most of his power from this, but is more susceptible as a result of struggling with major league pitching. Eric Longenhangen spoke about his tendency to swing inside pitches on the outer part of the strike zone, something he will need to tighten up on before he can be successful in the majors. Where did Judge struggle when he first came up to the majors? Take a look: The other interesting area in which Weimer and Judge would separate themselves is their speed. Weimer would be a faster athlete, more mobile and able to cover the outfield grass better, but this really shows up on the base paths. With 61 steals in the minors across two seasons, he’s a real threat to opposing teams, even more so given he was only caught 9 times, an 87% success rate! Weimer’s reduced strikeout rate of 19.5% at AAA, his “calmer” swing since joining the Brewers (including ditching his leg kick for a toe tap) give a real optimism about what Milwaukee could have in their system. Keith Law referred to him as having “stupid power” and that even hitting .220-.230 he could be a plus major league asset, with his defense, speed and quality of contact providing a higher floor than you would usually have with this type of prospect. And in regards to his ceiling, well… that’s probably a guy who just hit 62 home runs last season.

Pyrrhic is my new favourite word

The interesting thing is this is always easier to say in hindsight For example, if he has a first season like a top tier talent, he's unlikely to accept a real low offer, though could maybe get 1/2 extra seasons due to his likely young starting age in the big leagues. However on this basis, we also could've offered Hiura a long contract based on his first year, and that wouldn't have turned out so well. I think the Brewers could do it when he turns up in the bigs immediately, but even then there's some risk, as there has to be some uncertainty over future earnings to get a deal like this that's team friendly

I would also note that Urias did seem last season to take a more passive approach at the plate during the middle of the season, but his hitting tool pre and post thumb injury(I think it was his thumb?) looked much better Another reason is he quite possibly lays off a lot of pitches on the inner half of the plate, where he creates very very low avg exit velocities

Hi Larry, good to hear from you! It does seem to large a sample size to be an anomaly, and in this instance, I'm assuming we all know that even in our day to day jobs, we find some tasks and situations more stimulating than others. It just so happens Adames seems to have a spike in his focus and attention when big game moments come around

He had a god awful BABIP last year too, which played a big part in it. He doesn't strike out much at all, I think he's prime candidate for a big big season

It really wasn't the offense. Theoretically if Hader held one more game without a blow up, we'd have beaten the Phillies and held the tiebreaker, likely being in the playoffs. That and the number of starts Alexander gave us... that Yankees game where we scored 8 runs and didn't win was criminal

Is there any particular situation in which he should change his approach that you've noticed?

Even with just how good Devin Williams was last season, and Hader up to the end of June with his 0 earned runs, Milwaukee were 17th in Bullpen ERA last season, with 3.94. I'd expect even the mashpot this season could put up a number similar to that

For the second instalment in this series, let's delve a little into Willy Adames underlying numbers, to try and see where he's been developing, and where there is growth still to come: 2021 When he first joined the Brewers in 2021, Adames posted a .285/.366/.521 for an .887 OPS, crushing fastballs all over American Family Field, but we should keep in mind that he had far lower expected stats with an xBA of .236 and an xSLG of .435, which would lead to an expected OPS of something more in the .750 range. His biggest issue was that, despite being 72nd percentile for hard hit balls, and a median chase rate at the MLB level, he was in the ninth percentile for whiffing, swinging and missing on 32.6% of pitches. The slider caused him the most trouble (he was heavily targeted with the fastball-slider combination) with which he missed a whopping 41.3% of the pitches, including a lot of pitches down and away (21% to be specific). He also seemed to struggle with pitches that cramped him for room, struggling to barrel the ball when pulling the hands in, creating a lot of low exit velocities, with only four barrelled balls all year in the inner part of the plate. Pitches up and in are statistically his weakest going by average exit velocity, with a mere 78.9mph, mostly as soft popups, but even pitches down and in resulted in a heavy ground ball rate. On the plus side, he was exceptional at getting the ball in the air through the middle and upper parts of the strike zone, with average launch angles between 20-25 degrees in each of these 6 zones. In all three zones over the middle of the plate, middle-away, and up-and-away, he averages a hard hit ball with exit velocities of 95+ mph. He hit 18 of his 25 homers in the middle-middle, and middle away zones alone, as well as having high xSLG and BACON numbers for the up-and-middle/up-and-away zones. To summarise, Adames had areas of the zone where if he got his pitch, he would be able to impose himself on the pitcher, areas where he could elevate the ball nicely into the outfield. Yet in other zones he just couldn't find the barrel of the ball, combined with a propensity to whiff at any pitch that wasn't at his belt buckle. 2022 How did Adames try and address this in 2022? Given he was in the 9th percentile of whiff rate in 2021, he did manage to boost it to the 24th percentile in 2022. He was targeted down and away even more often, 24% of the time in fact, however he did reduced his whiff rate in this zone from 66% to 51%, a sizeable difference, and a large reason why his run differential vs the slider increased by 19 points. His BA against the slider did improve slightly, in part because when he connected on this pitch, he hit it hard, with a slugging percentage of .525. His biggest issue was that he started whiffing more around the upper part of the zone, much more consistently. This would go some way to showing why his run value on the fastball came down by 10 points, as well as his xBA and his xSLG each by .030 points. In each major league season, Adames has increased his barrel rate, to the point that last year, at 13%, he was in the 90th percentile of MLB, and his average launch angle of 18.9 degrees follows the same trend, demonstrating a real talent for getting the ball in the air consistently with hard contact. He had the 15th best barrel rate in MLB last year! He managed this more through an ability to loft the ball more, making use of his harder contact to find the outfield on a more consistent basis. 2023 Adames has some obvious weaknesses it seems, from his vulnerability at the top of the zone in 2022, to his enduring struggles with picking and laying off the slider. So how can he try and make that next step? Well for starters, Adames doesn't do a great job of laying off the slider down and away, and he could be more selective with this pitch. He barrels up balls middle-away, and down over the heart of the plate quite regularly, so if he can be more selective in picking the slider, and even trying to avoid the low and away section inside the strike zone in the early counts, we could see him reach deeper counts, get ahead in counts a little more often, and apply pressure to the breaking pitches. The other way is a psychological one. Adames is a player who thrives on energy, enthusiasm, and the big moment. His focus and performance seem to step up dramatically when there's a big moment, or a chance to drive in runs. When you've got 600+ plate appearances in a year, it's difficult to be fully in the moment for each one of them. Have a look at these stats from 2021 and 2022: There is too much data in the above to deny that Adames feels better in the bigger moments of the game, in both his eye at the plate, to his power numbers, and the Brewers need to find a way to tap into this more often. Corbin Burnes often talks about having his process when he walks up to the mound of making each pitch a solitary event, developing a set process and reviewing his efforts based on his execution. Adames could work with a psychologist to find a method of sharpening his focus in each occasion at which he reaches the batter's box, as well as potentially moving him slightly down the order in the hope he'll have more men on base in front of him when he comes up to hit. The Brewers as a more "three true outcome" oriented team last season probably didn't help this, but with a hope that Winker with his high OBP, Yelich with his high OBP, and potentially Frelick too, could set the tone at the top of the order and give Adames those RBI opportunities, we may see a spike in Adames plate discipline and performance this coming season. Let me know what you guys think!

Congrats on the shout-out in the tailgate podcast by the way! Shows the quality of analysis you're giving!

Also, how does it predict the Giants to have so many wins? I've got to say I find that quite surprising

PECOTA does usually seem to rate the Brewers a little higher doesn't it? Be interesting to see between them which often turns out more accurately

I'd agree... closing situation is a difference, but hitting looks far better lined up, and the brewers pitchers are probably somewhere between the 21 & 22 numbers I could very easily make the argument the cards overperformed last year I do find there's a natural bias to the prior years division champs too in how people talk about them too

Or the beginning of something great.... just need to find some heat entering the playoffs, something that has, as of yet, eluded them