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Everything posted by Jason Wang
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1) Lane Thomas (WSN, OF) Spending pretty much all of his time in right field thus far this season, he’s the best bat on the Nationals, slashing .292/.339/.490 for an OPS of .829 and an OPS+ of 130. His best feature (other than his smile)? He crushes lefties. Over 131 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season, he’s slashed an incredible .364/.412/.653 for an OPS of 1.065. Meanwhile, the current Brewers lineup is posting a team OPS of .680 against LHP, second worst in MLB. Thomas has a few concerning characteristics, however. While his OPS is better than league average, batted-ball data would suggest he’s gotten lucky along the way, posting a 32nd-percentile xwOBA. He also strikes out quite a bit (25th-percentile K%) and doesn’t walk much (15th-percentile BB%). His defense also leaves something to be desired, as he's posted -2 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and -3 Outs Above Average (OAA). The Brewers' depth chart at right field lists Tyrone Taylor, Brian Anderson (10-day IL), Joey Wiemer, Owen Miller, Blake Perkins, and Raimel Tapia. While Thomas’s glove isn’t quite up to scratch, his offensive contributions would likely eclipse any of the names currently in right field, and the exceptional defense by the other Brewers outfielders might be able to compensate. Lane Thomas is currently signed through 2023 on a one-year, $2.2-million deal and will be a free agent in 2026. 2) Connor Joe (PIT, OF/1B) In addition to splitting time in the outfield corners, Joe has also spent 136 innings playing first base this season. He’s performed decently at the plate, slashing .242/.331/.423 for an OPS of .754 and an OPS+ of 105. Similar to Thomas, he also performs exceptionally well against southpaws, posting a .912 OPS over 111 plate appearances. His OPS against righties is a little lackluster at .654, but he could have value as a platoon guy. Also similar to Thomas, he strikes out a considerable amount (16th-percentile K%), but he has some pop, decent plate discipline (68th-percentile BB%), and an excellent chase rate (97th percentile). He may not be as much of an impact bat as your ideal first baseman, but with the current depth chart listing Rowdy Tellez (10-day IL), Darin Ruf (60-day IL), and Owen Miller (91 OPS+), can the Brewers really afford to be picky? Joe is currently on a one-year, $735,000 deal and will be a free agent in 2028. 3) Justin Turner (BOS, DH/1B) Turner is having another strong year in a career marked by rigid consistency and may be a great acquisition piece, especially since he’s primarily served as a DH for the Red Sox this year while also playing 213 innings at first base. His slash line of .289/.358/.478 is good for an OPS+ of 122, which would constitute a big upgrade over the Brewers’ existing options at DH. The current depth chart lists Jesse Winker (59 OPS+), Darin Ruf, Christian Yelich, and William Contreras. To continue the theme, Turner performs extremely well against left-handed pitching, posting a .972 OPS over 117 plate appearances thus far this season. He has also steadily improved his offense over the course of the season, starting with a .723 OPS in April, .792 OPS in May, .865 OPS in June, and 1.074 OPS so far in July. His stock is quite literally rising. However, unlike the theme, he does not strike out often and has an 84th percentile K%. He doesn’t chase (77th percentile), whiff (87th percentile), and has been known to take the occasional stroll to first base (52nd-percentile BB%). His defense isn’t anything to write home about, but as a designated hitter, that’s the definition of a nonissue. That being said, Turner might be a little too rich for the Brewers’ tastes, as he's currently on a one-year, $15-million contract. He’ll also be a free agent in 2024, so he might not stick around for very long, assuming he does make the trip out to the Badger State.
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MLB Trade Rumors have been dominated by some of the sport’s biggest names, like Shohei Ohtani, Nolan Arenado, and Pete Alonso. However, given the Brewers' limited payroll, they will likely divert their attention away from the brightest stars and toward slightly more obscure value. Here are three players that could add some value to the team, without costing an arm and a leg. Image courtesy of © Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports 1) Lane Thomas (WSN, OF) Spending pretty much all of his time in right field thus far this season, he’s the best bat on the Nationals, slashing .292/.339/.490 for an OPS of .829 and an OPS+ of 130. His best feature (other than his smile)? He crushes lefties. Over 131 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season, he’s slashed an incredible .364/.412/.653 for an OPS of 1.065. Meanwhile, the current Brewers lineup is posting a team OPS of .680 against LHP, second worst in MLB. Thomas has a few concerning characteristics, however. While his OPS is better than league average, batted-ball data would suggest he’s gotten lucky along the way, posting a 32nd-percentile xwOBA. He also strikes out quite a bit (25th-percentile K%) and doesn’t walk much (15th-percentile BB%). His defense also leaves something to be desired, as he's posted -2 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and -3 Outs Above Average (OAA). The Brewers' depth chart at right field lists Tyrone Taylor, Brian Anderson (10-day IL), Joey Wiemer, Owen Miller, Blake Perkins, and Raimel Tapia. While Thomas’s glove isn’t quite up to scratch, his offensive contributions would likely eclipse any of the names currently in right field, and the exceptional defense by the other Brewers outfielders might be able to compensate. Lane Thomas is currently signed through 2023 on a one-year, $2.2-million deal and will be a free agent in 2026. 2) Connor Joe (PIT, OF/1B) In addition to splitting time in the outfield corners, Joe has also spent 136 innings playing first base this season. He’s performed decently at the plate, slashing .242/.331/.423 for an OPS of .754 and an OPS+ of 105. Similar to Thomas, he also performs exceptionally well against southpaws, posting a .912 OPS over 111 plate appearances. His OPS against righties is a little lackluster at .654, but he could have value as a platoon guy. Also similar to Thomas, he strikes out a considerable amount (16th-percentile K%), but he has some pop, decent plate discipline (68th-percentile BB%), and an excellent chase rate (97th percentile). He may not be as much of an impact bat as your ideal first baseman, but with the current depth chart listing Rowdy Tellez (10-day IL), Darin Ruf (60-day IL), and Owen Miller (91 OPS+), can the Brewers really afford to be picky? Joe is currently on a one-year, $735,000 deal and will be a free agent in 2028. 3) Justin Turner (BOS, DH/1B) Turner is having another strong year in a career marked by rigid consistency and may be a great acquisition piece, especially since he’s primarily served as a DH for the Red Sox this year while also playing 213 innings at first base. His slash line of .289/.358/.478 is good for an OPS+ of 122, which would constitute a big upgrade over the Brewers’ existing options at DH. The current depth chart lists Jesse Winker (59 OPS+), Darin Ruf, Christian Yelich, and William Contreras. To continue the theme, Turner performs extremely well against left-handed pitching, posting a .972 OPS over 117 plate appearances thus far this season. He has also steadily improved his offense over the course of the season, starting with a .723 OPS in April, .792 OPS in May, .865 OPS in June, and 1.074 OPS so far in July. His stock is quite literally rising. However, unlike the theme, he does not strike out often and has an 84th percentile K%. He doesn’t chase (77th percentile), whiff (87th percentile), and has been known to take the occasional stroll to first base (52nd-percentile BB%). His defense isn’t anything to write home about, but as a designated hitter, that’s the definition of a nonissue. That being said, Turner might be a little too rich for the Brewers’ tastes, as he's currently on a one-year, $15-million contract. He’ll also be a free agent in 2024, so he might not stick around for very long, assuming he does make the trip out to the Badger State. View full article
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Article: The Return of the Full Corbin Burnes
Jason Wang replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in Brewer Fanatic Front Page News
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Very true - average and OBP are still quite low, he's being saved by his near .500 SLG.
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- 2023 trade deadline
- andrew vaughn
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100%. It's a tight market and most bats that are worth pursuing are either critical pieces of their respective teams or on legitimate contenders that are likely hoping to preserve their core.
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- 2023 trade deadline
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I should have called this out but after a pitiful May and June, July is looking like a rebound month for Rooker, posting a .783 OPS in July vs a .616 and .620 OPS in May and June respectively.
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- 2023 trade deadline
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The Brewers Should Target These 1B & DH At The Trade Deadline
Jason Wang posted an article in Brewers
1. Brendan Donovan (STL, 1B) In an ideal world, the Brewers would strike a deal for reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt, but given his somewhat large contract and Cardinals executive John Mozeliak recently stating that the team has no plans to trade him or Nolan Arenado, we’ll have to settle for the next best thing. Brendan Donovan has primarily played second base for the Cardinals this year, but has also served as the backup first baseman and appeared in 11 games as the designated hitter. He’s been a strong offensive bat, slashing .284/.370/.432 for an OPS of .802 and an OPS+ of 120. His contract situation is also not too bad, with him being signed through the remainder of 2023 and not being eligible for free agency until 2028. While not the rosiest of situations, this season is not yet over for the Cardinals, but if they do want to make it to the postseason, they absolutely need to fix their abysmal pitching situation. With a strong pitching staff to exchange, a deal with Milwaukee could be made. Furthermore, the Cardinals are vying for a wild card spot, as winning the division is pretty much out of the question, so trading with the favorite Brewers doesn’t hurt their odds too much. There are rumors of Donovan being sent to Boston, so if Milwaukee wants a valuable hitting piece like Donovan, they’ll have to move quickly. 2. Brent Rooker (OAK, DH) While he’s cooled down significantly from his hot start this season, Rooker is still a meaningful offensive contributor to the Athletics. Primarily serving as a designated hitter, he's slashing .239/.332/.467 for an OPS of .800 and an OPS+ of 127. He’s also spent significant time in the outfield so he has value outside of just being a bat if the Brewers choose to utilize him in that way. His contract situation is remarkably similar to Brendan Donovan’s, being signed through 2023 and being eligible to test free agency in 2028. Oakland also needs improved pitching, and has been active in the market, recently trading Shintaro Fujinami to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for lefty prospect Easton Lucas. With one of the worst rotations and bullpens in the entire league, Oakland might be open to sacrificing a power bat for a couple of strong arms. Then again, who knows what Oakland’s front office even wants these days (other than to leave Oakland). 3. Andrew Vaughn (CHW, 1B) Andrew Vaughn is like a slightly less impressive Donovan. On the bright side, he’s a full-time first baseman, but his offense is a little less impressive, slashing .244/..316/.422 for a .738 OPS and 102 OPS+. That being said, he still has much to offer. The White Sox are pretty much doomed this season, projected as having a 1.4% chance to make the playoffs. After a disappointing past few years, the front office is probably more likely to make some moves to revitalize the franchise. Similar to the Cardinals, they also need pitching to bolster a decent lineup. The real target should be Eloy Jimenez, but he’s more of a key piece to the franchise than Vaughn and has a much more expensive contract, so Vaughn seems more in line with precedent Brewers front office decisions. He is signed through 2023 and isn’t eligible for free agency until 2027.- 16 comments
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- 2023 trade deadline
- andrew vaughn
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It’s no secret that the Milwaukee Brewers are severely lacking quality people for two of the most important hitting positions. With Rowdy Tellez’s IL stint recently extended and his already-lackluster season in mind, it’s time to start looking for other options. And no, a Keston Hiura promotion is not the ideal solution here. Image courtesy of Brewer Fanatic 1. Brendan Donovan (STL, 1B) In an ideal world, the Brewers would strike a deal for reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt, but given his somewhat large contract and Cardinals executive John Mozeliak recently stating that the team has no plans to trade him or Nolan Arenado, we’ll have to settle for the next best thing. Brendan Donovan has primarily played second base for the Cardinals this year, but has also served as the backup first baseman and appeared in 11 games as the designated hitter. He’s been a strong offensive bat, slashing .284/.370/.432 for an OPS of .802 and an OPS+ of 120. His contract situation is also not too bad, with him being signed through the remainder of 2023 and not being eligible for free agency until 2028. While not the rosiest of situations, this season is not yet over for the Cardinals, but if they do want to make it to the postseason, they absolutely need to fix their abysmal pitching situation. With a strong pitching staff to exchange, a deal with Milwaukee could be made. Furthermore, the Cardinals are vying for a wild card spot, as winning the division is pretty much out of the question, so trading with the favorite Brewers doesn’t hurt their odds too much. There are rumors of Donovan being sent to Boston, so if Milwaukee wants a valuable hitting piece like Donovan, they’ll have to move quickly. 2. Brent Rooker (OAK, DH) While he’s cooled down significantly from his hot start this season, Rooker is still a meaningful offensive contributor to the Athletics. Primarily serving as a designated hitter, he's slashing .239/.332/.467 for an OPS of .800 and an OPS+ of 127. He’s also spent significant time in the outfield so he has value outside of just being a bat if the Brewers choose to utilize him in that way. His contract situation is remarkably similar to Brendan Donovan’s, being signed through 2023 and being eligible to test free agency in 2028. Oakland also needs improved pitching, and has been active in the market, recently trading Shintaro Fujinami to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for lefty prospect Easton Lucas. With one of the worst rotations and bullpens in the entire league, Oakland might be open to sacrificing a power bat for a couple of strong arms. Then again, who knows what Oakland’s front office even wants these days (other than to leave Oakland). 3. Andrew Vaughn (CHW, 1B) Andrew Vaughn is like a slightly less impressive Donovan. On the bright side, he’s a full-time first baseman, but his offense is a little less impressive, slashing .244/..316/.422 for a .738 OPS and 102 OPS+. That being said, he still has much to offer. The White Sox are pretty much doomed this season, projected as having a 1.4% chance to make the playoffs. After a disappointing past few years, the front office is probably more likely to make some moves to revitalize the franchise. Similar to the Cardinals, they also need pitching to bolster a decent lineup. The real target should be Eloy Jimenez, but he’s more of a key piece to the franchise than Vaughn and has a much more expensive contract, so Vaughn seems more in line with precedent Brewers front office decisions. He is signed through 2023 and isn’t eligible for free agency until 2027. View full article
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- 2023 trade deadline
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Article: The Return of the Full Corbin Burnes
Jason Wang replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in Brewer Fanatic Front Page News
I also think the pitch timer had something to do with it. His pitch tempo was 21.1 seconds with bases empty and 24.7 with runners on in 2022. This year, it's 16.7 and 20.6 seconds, the fastest it has ever been in his career for 4-5 seconds. Baseball Savant considers tempo the time in between pitches where as pitch clock is obviously from the catcher return to pitch release but it still gives a general idea of how much he's had to accelerate things. It would explain his brutal start and return to normalcy in recent games. -
Good callout! On the bright side, he's not chasing much (97th percentile Chase Rate) and he has an elite walk rate at 17.6% which makes for a super interesting player. Not sure how the market is for first basemen but he might be a nice consolation prize the Brewers could probably get for pretty cheap, like 2 or 3 Zaffiro's Pizzas.
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3) Starting Pitching Before Wade Miley recently headed to the 15-day IL with elbow discomfort, the Brewers were operating on a six-man rotation. Furthermore, Brandon Woodruff and Aaron Ashby are expected to make their returns sooner rather than later, and Eric Lauer is still kicking around on the 40-man roster . Assuming that Milwaukee had everyone to work with, pretty much all of their starters would be useful as middle or end-of-the-rotation guys, at the very least. There are plenty of teams who are in desperate need of more solid pitching pieces and have some position players to spare. A good example would be the Cincinnati Reds, who currently have an ERA of 5.58 for their starting pitchers--28th in MLB. The Reds have the opposite problem: a surfeit of great players at positions where the Brewers need help, namely Spencer Steer at first base and Will Benson in the outfield. While it may be odd for the two top contenders in the NL Central to trade some of their most valuable players with each other, perhaps it can be a win-win scenario where all boats rise with the tide. An alternative option could be a trade for Ryan Noda, the first baseman for the Oakland Athletics. Oakland has a similar issue, posting an abysmal 6.29 team ERA for starters, while Noda has posted excellent stats in his rookie season, slashing .225/.374/.402. Furthermore, Oakland fans are well aware that the Athletics’ front office is more than willing to trade their best position players year after year for minor-league prospects or other cheap, long-term pieces. 2) Outfielders The Brewers have both great skill and optionality in the outfield, with players such as Christian Yelich, Joey Wiemer, Blake Perkins, and even Owen Miller performing well. Furthermore, the team’s top two prospects, Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick, are standout outfielders at Double A and Triple A, respectively. Even fifth-ranked prospect Tyler Black has been known to dabble in the outfield at times. Perkins might fetch a good price, as his defense-focused playing style would add value for many teams lacking such a skillset (looking at you, Phillies), and his lack of offense can be upgraded to add a much-needed bat to the Brewers lineup. While there is depth in the farm system, none of the prospects are quite fully baked. Past the top five, most of the other prospects are in the lower levels of the minors (High-A and below) and Frelick, the lone man in Nashville, has been slashing just .229/.319/.300, signaling a need for more time before heading to The Show. 1) Relievers The Brewers have had a great bullpen all year--one of the best in baseball. A 3.90 ERA for all relievers is actually skewed by a few pitchers who have already been removed from the major-league roster for their poor performances, including Matt Bush and Javy Guerra. The five qualified relievers have ERA+ figures of 149 or better, with Elvis Peguero having the highest ERA at 2.92. Even with injuries and poor performances affecting the bullpen, there seems to be an unending supply of strong arms to fill in the gaps. While the front office is unlikely to surrender any core pieces, some of the newer faces might help teams who struggle with pitching in the later innings. One team that might need the help would be the Chicago White Sox. At 16 games below .500, their playoff hopes are slim to none and it’s clear their rebuild has not worked, so it might be time to try again. They also have a 4.71 reliever ERA, 26th in MLB. Some pieces that might add some incremental but much-appreciated value would be 1B Andrew Vaughn (.742 OPS, 103 OPS+) or OF Andrew Benintendei (.731 OPS, 103 OPS+).
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The Milwaukee Brewers are on top of the NL Central for a few reasons. While the team has its weaknesses, there are a couple of positions where the Brewers have depth to spare--enough to trade away to bolster its comparatively feeble offense. Here are the top three areas that the Milwaukee front office might trim down before this year’s trade deadline to get some new bats. 3) Starting Pitching Before Wade Miley recently headed to the 15-day IL with elbow discomfort, the Brewers were operating on a six-man rotation. Furthermore, Brandon Woodruff and Aaron Ashby are expected to make their returns sooner rather than later, and Eric Lauer is still kicking around on the 40-man roster . Assuming that Milwaukee had everyone to work with, pretty much all of their starters would be useful as middle or end-of-the-rotation guys, at the very least. There are plenty of teams who are in desperate need of more solid pitching pieces and have some position players to spare. A good example would be the Cincinnati Reds, who currently have an ERA of 5.58 for their starting pitchers--28th in MLB. The Reds have the opposite problem: a surfeit of great players at positions where the Brewers need help, namely Spencer Steer at first base and Will Benson in the outfield. While it may be odd for the two top contenders in the NL Central to trade some of their most valuable players with each other, perhaps it can be a win-win scenario where all boats rise with the tide. An alternative option could be a trade for Ryan Noda, the first baseman for the Oakland Athletics. Oakland has a similar issue, posting an abysmal 6.29 team ERA for starters, while Noda has posted excellent stats in his rookie season, slashing .225/.374/.402. Furthermore, Oakland fans are well aware that the Athletics’ front office is more than willing to trade their best position players year after year for minor-league prospects or other cheap, long-term pieces. 2) Outfielders The Brewers have both great skill and optionality in the outfield, with players such as Christian Yelich, Joey Wiemer, Blake Perkins, and even Owen Miller performing well. Furthermore, the team’s top two prospects, Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick, are standout outfielders at Double A and Triple A, respectively. Even fifth-ranked prospect Tyler Black has been known to dabble in the outfield at times. Perkins might fetch a good price, as his defense-focused playing style would add value for many teams lacking such a skillset (looking at you, Phillies), and his lack of offense can be upgraded to add a much-needed bat to the Brewers lineup. While there is depth in the farm system, none of the prospects are quite fully baked. Past the top five, most of the other prospects are in the lower levels of the minors (High-A and below) and Frelick, the lone man in Nashville, has been slashing just .229/.319/.300, signaling a need for more time before heading to The Show. 1) Relievers The Brewers have had a great bullpen all year--one of the best in baseball. A 3.90 ERA for all relievers is actually skewed by a few pitchers who have already been removed from the major-league roster for their poor performances, including Matt Bush and Javy Guerra. The five qualified relievers have ERA+ figures of 149 or better, with Elvis Peguero having the highest ERA at 2.92. Even with injuries and poor performances affecting the bullpen, there seems to be an unending supply of strong arms to fill in the gaps. While the front office is unlikely to surrender any core pieces, some of the newer faces might help teams who struggle with pitching in the later innings. One team that might need the help would be the Chicago White Sox. At 16 games below .500, their playoff hopes are slim to none and it’s clear their rebuild has not worked, so it might be time to try again. They also have a 4.71 reliever ERA, 26th in MLB. Some pieces that might add some incremental but much-appreciated value would be 1B Andrew Vaughn (.742 OPS, 103 OPS+) or OF Andrew Benintendei (.731 OPS, 103 OPS+). View full article
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It's so hard to find objective defensive stats. Pretty much all of them, even simple fielding percentage, include subjectivity of whether things are errors or "above average outs." When writing about players, I try to ignore my internal biases and "eye tests" as it feels too opinionated to me, but you're right. OAA might not tell the whole story.
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lol this reminds me of this gem:
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- 2023 trade deadline
- willy adames
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Very true! Honestly just need more offense.
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In the game of baseball, no team is perfect. There are so many moving pieces and dimensions that even the best teams can improve in almost all areas. With the Brewers currently holding a narrow lead in the NL Central and August 1 quickly approaching, let’s count down the things the Brewers should have on their shopping list to secure their trip to the postseason. Image courtesy of © David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports 3) Strikeout Pitchers If you just take a look at some high-level statistics, you might say that the Brewers have a pretty good pitching staff across the board. They currently have a team ERA of 4.00, 12th in MLB, and a WHIP of 1.25, good for eighth. If you want to get even more granular and look at the individual players that make this possible, you’ll notice bullpen staples such as Devin Williams, Joel Payamps, Hoby Milner, and Elvis Peguero posting incredibly strong ERA+ figures, followed by starters Wade Miley and Corbin Burnes. In fact, of the 11 active qualified pitchers, nine of them have ERA+ figures above 100, meaning that they are performing better than average when adjusting for park factors. However, of those same 11, only four pitchers have above-average strikeout rates, meaning that for the most part, the pitching staff is heavily relying on soft contact. Matthew Trueblood pointed out this lack of swing-and-miss back in mid-April. The Brewers have been one of the best defensive teams in baseball this year, posting a team Defensive Runs Saved figure of 34, third in MLB behind just the Blue Jays and Rangers. Blake Perkins and William Contreras, in particular, have been exceptional, leading the team with eight and seven DRS, respectively. This is great, but if the Brewers are able to get a few more strikeout-based pitchers to take some of the pressure off of the lineup. Particularly in the starting rotation, Milwaukee should look to acquire some strikeout backup to compensate for Corbin Burnes’s slight dip in performance this season--although come back later this week for more insight on that topic. 2) Contact Hitters In this new age of baseball, batting average can sometimes be an overlooked statistic. After Moneyball, there are many who think on-base-percentage is an upgrade to batting average, but one key thing to remember is that a hit is a ball in play. A walk can only score a run if the bases are loaded, but a single can score a particularly speedy runner all the way from first. Of the team’s eight qualified hitters, only three players (Christian Yelich, Owen Miller, and Contreras) are batting above .230. The inability to put balls in play is one of the reasons that the Brewers are currently ranked 14th in the NL and 25th in MLB in runs scored. With a pitiful team batting average of .232, getting a few contact-focused bats could pay dividends throughout the rest of the season. 1) Power Bats Consistent singles are great, but contact hitting is a gift that not all players possess. Thankfully, one can easily offset a lower batting average by getting doubles and home runs. The whole purpose of stats like OPS and xwOBA are to properly value hitters that may bat around .240-.260 but hit 30+ home runs per season. A good example of this is Willy Adames, who is currently batting a somewhat dismal .212, but with a decent walk rate and a slugging average of .411, his OPS of .706 is much more palatable. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, Adames is one of just three qualified position players on the team with slugging figures above the league average. None of the Brewers are going to be hitting a Barry Bonds-esque home run stride any time soon, with Adames currently leading the team with 16, but if the team is able to bolster their hitting with a few more big hitters, it could generate more runs and improve upon the team’s greatest weakness this season, the offense. View full article
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Top 3 Things The Brewers Need To Pursue Before The Trade Deadline
Jason Wang posted an article in Brewers
3) Strikeout Pitchers If you just take a look at some high-level statistics, you might say that the Brewers have a pretty good pitching staff across the board. They currently have a team ERA of 4.00, 12th in MLB, and a WHIP of 1.25, good for eighth. If you want to get even more granular and look at the individual players that make this possible, you’ll notice bullpen staples such as Devin Williams, Joel Payamps, Hoby Milner, and Elvis Peguero posting incredibly strong ERA+ figures, followed by starters Wade Miley and Corbin Burnes. In fact, of the 11 active qualified pitchers, nine of them have ERA+ figures above 100, meaning that they are performing better than average when adjusting for park factors. However, of those same 11, only four pitchers have above-average strikeout rates, meaning that for the most part, the pitching staff is heavily relying on soft contact. Matthew Trueblood pointed out this lack of swing-and-miss back in mid-April. The Brewers have been one of the best defensive teams in baseball this year, posting a team Defensive Runs Saved figure of 34, third in MLB behind just the Blue Jays and Rangers. Blake Perkins and William Contreras, in particular, have been exceptional, leading the team with eight and seven DRS, respectively. This is great, but if the Brewers are able to get a few more strikeout-based pitchers to take some of the pressure off of the lineup. Particularly in the starting rotation, Milwaukee should look to acquire some strikeout backup to compensate for Corbin Burnes’s slight dip in performance this season--although come back later this week for more insight on that topic. 2) Contact Hitters In this new age of baseball, batting average can sometimes be an overlooked statistic. After Moneyball, there are many who think on-base-percentage is an upgrade to batting average, but one key thing to remember is that a hit is a ball in play. A walk can only score a run if the bases are loaded, but a single can score a particularly speedy runner all the way from first. Of the team’s eight qualified hitters, only three players (Christian Yelich, Owen Miller, and Contreras) are batting above .230. The inability to put balls in play is one of the reasons that the Brewers are currently ranked 14th in the NL and 25th in MLB in runs scored. With a pitiful team batting average of .232, getting a few contact-focused bats could pay dividends throughout the rest of the season. 1) Power Bats Consistent singles are great, but contact hitting is a gift that not all players possess. Thankfully, one can easily offset a lower batting average by getting doubles and home runs. The whole purpose of stats like OPS and xwOBA are to properly value hitters that may bat around .240-.260 but hit 30+ home runs per season. A good example of this is Willy Adames, who is currently batting a somewhat dismal .212, but with a decent walk rate and a slugging average of .411, his OPS of .706 is much more palatable. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, Adames is one of just three qualified position players on the team with slugging figures above the league average. None of the Brewers are going to be hitting a Barry Bonds-esque home run stride any time soon, with Adames currently leading the team with 16, but if the team is able to bolster their hitting with a few more big hitters, it could generate more runs and improve upon the team’s greatest weakness this season, the offense.- 17 comments
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- 2023 trade deadline
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In a close game that saw brilliant pitching from both sides, the Corbin Burnes and the bullpen staff came out on top, as Victor Caratini powered the Brewers to a win. Image courtesy of © Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK Box Score Starting Pitcher: Corbin Burnes - 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 13 K, 102 pitches, 64 strikes (62.7%) Home Runs: None Top 3 WPA: Corbin Burnes (.374), Devin Williams (.223), Joel Payamps (.152) Bottom 3 WPA: Andruw Monasterio (-.181), Christian Yelich (-.121), Brice Turang (-.110) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Corbin Cooks Up A Masterpiece In one of his most impressive starts of the season, Corbin Burnes struck out 13 batters, a season-high total, through his six-inning start, giving up just two hits on the way. Everything seemed to be working for him, painting the edges of the zone like Leonardo da Vinci. He also posted an impressive 21 swings and misses. The one frightening portion of his start was in the fifth inning. After striking out TJ Friedl, he appeared to stumble and came off the mound, almost collapsing. While the cause wasn’t clear at the time, it was later reported that it was due to a combination of heat and dehydration. With a high of 92 degrees and amid a Herculean effort, it makes sense. If the Brewers want to stake their claim to the NL Central division and make a strong run at the postseason, we will need this version of Burnes throughout the second half. He’s currently at a 3.73 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Bullpen Boys Back Up Burnes The relievers didn’t let their starter down, as they kept one of the better-hitting teams in baseball guessing at the plate in the final three innings. Elvis Peguero, Joel Payamps, and Devin Williams went a perfect three innings, striking out five of their nine assigned batters. Williams recorded his 21st save of the season, putting him fourth in the National League. Slow Game Ends With A Caratini Swing While the Brewers performed slightly better at the plate (6 H, 3 BB) than the Reds (2 H, 2 BB), the game was scoreless for the first six innings. Nonetheless, the seventh inning started off with a bang, kicked off by a Willy Adames leadoff double. After a single and stolen base by Owen Miller, there were two runners in scoring position and zero outs. Victor Caratini’s single to center field sent Adames home and gave the Brewers a small but very meaningful 1-0 lead. A Jesse Winker walk following two strikeouts loaded the bases and gave Milwaukee the potential to tack on some insurance, but a Joey Wiemer popout put an end to those plans. What’s Next? The Brewers have two more games against the Reds before continuing their road trip. The Milwaukee schedule is brutal over this next stretch, with the next few series being against the Phillies, Braves, Reds, and Braves again. Any and all momentum is needed, and the team cannot afford to continue slumping at the plate if they hope to keep their strong position in the standings. Freddy Peralta will face lefty Andrew Abbott in the second game of the series. Both the Reds and the Brewers are tied with an identical 50-42 record at the top of the NL Central. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT Williams 14 0 0 0 0 14 Peguero 13 0 0 0 0 13 Payamps 12 0 0 0 0 12 Milner 0 0 0 0 0 0 B Wilson 0 0 0 0 0 0 Uribe 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mejia 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tweet Highlight View full article
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Brewers 1, Reds 0: Milwaukee Takes Round One Of Central Showdown
Jason Wang posted an article in Brewers
Box Score Starting Pitcher: Corbin Burnes - 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 13 K, 102 pitches, 64 strikes (62.7%) Home Runs: None Top 3 WPA: Corbin Burnes (.374), Devin Williams (.223), Joel Payamps (.152) Bottom 3 WPA: Andruw Monasterio (-.181), Christian Yelich (-.121), Brice Turang (-.110) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Corbin Cooks Up A Masterpiece In one of his most impressive starts of the season, Corbin Burnes struck out 13 batters, a season-high total, through his six-inning start, giving up just two hits on the way. Everything seemed to be working for him, painting the edges of the zone like Leonardo da Vinci. He also posted an impressive 21 swings and misses. The one frightening portion of his start was in the fifth inning. After striking out TJ Friedl, he appeared to stumble and came off the mound, almost collapsing. While the cause wasn’t clear at the time, it was later reported that it was due to a combination of heat and dehydration. With a high of 92 degrees and amid a Herculean effort, it makes sense. If the Brewers want to stake their claim to the NL Central division and make a strong run at the postseason, we will need this version of Burnes throughout the second half. He’s currently at a 3.73 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Bullpen Boys Back Up Burnes The relievers didn’t let their starter down, as they kept one of the better-hitting teams in baseball guessing at the plate in the final three innings. Elvis Peguero, Joel Payamps, and Devin Williams went a perfect three innings, striking out five of their nine assigned batters. Williams recorded his 21st save of the season, putting him fourth in the National League. Slow Game Ends With A Caratini Swing While the Brewers performed slightly better at the plate (6 H, 3 BB) than the Reds (2 H, 2 BB), the game was scoreless for the first six innings. Nonetheless, the seventh inning started off with a bang, kicked off by a Willy Adames leadoff double. After a single and stolen base by Owen Miller, there were two runners in scoring position and zero outs. Victor Caratini’s single to center field sent Adames home and gave the Brewers a small but very meaningful 1-0 lead. A Jesse Winker walk following two strikeouts loaded the bases and gave Milwaukee the potential to tack on some insurance, but a Joey Wiemer popout put an end to those plans. What’s Next? The Brewers have two more games against the Reds before continuing their road trip. The Milwaukee schedule is brutal over this next stretch, with the next few series being against the Phillies, Braves, Reds, and Braves again. Any and all momentum is needed, and the team cannot afford to continue slumping at the plate if they hope to keep their strong position in the standings. Freddy Peralta will face lefty Andrew Abbott in the second game of the series. Both the Reds and the Brewers are tied with an identical 50-42 record at the top of the NL Central. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT Williams 14 0 0 0 0 14 Peguero 13 0 0 0 0 13 Payamps 12 0 0 0 0 12 Milner 0 0 0 0 0 0 B Wilson 0 0 0 0 0 0 Uribe 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mejia 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tweet Highlight -
Brice Turang has 0 OAA and is in the 43rd percentile for this statistic. He has 2 OAA as a second baseman but -2 OAA as a shortstop. That's primarily what I was going off of. That being said, if we want to evaluate Turange purely as a second baseman, than his 2 OAA and 7 DRS is fine but someone like Dubon (just using him as an easy comparison since we've mentioned him already) has 3 OAA and 8 DRS. Defensive metrics are a little less straightforward than offensive metrics since much of it is subjective, but I made that comment based on a quick glance at those two statistics. Let me know your thoughts! Always happy to learn more about the game.
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what happened in volleyball are u okay I think priority one should be second base. I'm sure he's a very nice guy but Brice Turang is a 59 OPS+ hitter that plays slightly below average defense. How he's above replacement level I have no idea but adding a contact hitter at second base would be immense. This is an extremely random target but Mauricio Dubon from the Houston Astros is actually someone that comes to mind since Altuve is (almost) back from the IL and they've been splitting time at 2B all season. Dubon doesn't have great power but he's batting .279. His walk rate is garbage but I'd take a .279/.303/.397 over Turang's .207/.265/.315.
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1) Unfortunately we'll likely see appearances from both characters. He hasn't been remarkably consistent and will flash Cy Young Corbin one game then get shelled the next. 2) Good question. Winker has been bad (.577 OPS, 63 OPS+) and is supposed to be a platoon guy against righties but isn't great at that job either. I'd be surprised if he gets a ton more ABs this year. 3) Probably none. Unlike Yelich, no one else is performing that far below their career expectations. Rowdy should at least be above-replacement but I don't think anyone will be catching up. 4) I was going to say that we need guys that can hit lefties, but after checking the number it looks like we just need guys that can hit in general. The team is posting a .680 OPS against LHP and a .694 against RHP so the team is just not an offensive powerhouse.
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The All-Star Break was great fun, but it's time to get back to business. With all teams now focused on putting themselves in position for the postseason, here are three things to keep an eye on for the back half of the schedule. Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Standoff In The NL Central Ever since Cincinnati called up Elly De La Cruz and brought Joey Votto back from the IL, they've gone on a tear, having an incredible month of June that included a 12-game win streak. Powered by their young nucleus that includes standouts like Matt McLain, TJ Friedl, and Spencer Steer, they posted a team OPS of .791, 4th in MLB, last month. On the other hand, the Brewers continued their summer slump, posting a .655 OPS, 27th in MLB. This clear disparity in offense allowed the Reds to close a large divisional deficit and overtake Milwaukee by one game in the NL Central. Based on FanGraphs' playoff projections, the Brewers still have a 54.4% chance to clinch the division, whereas the Reds have a just a 29.9% chance, but those numbers could change quickly with a winning or losing streak by either team. Interestingly enough, Baseball Reference gives the Brewers, Reds, and Cubs somewhat even chances of clinching the division at 36.6%, 34.5%, and 27.7% respectively. FanGraphs is a little more pessimistic, giving the Cubs just a 5.6% chance to take the top spot. If you choose to go off of Pythagorean wins and losses, all three teams are still quite even. Milwaukee Brewers Cincinnati Reds Chicago Cubs Wins 44 45 47 Losses 47 46 42 So who knows what will happen? The Brewers can't hit, the Reds can't pitch, and the Cubs keep getting unlucky in close games. Shuffling The Starting Rotation Fans have been awaiting Brandon Woodruff's return from the IL, and he's been making progress, staying in Milwaukee during the All-Star break to continue his rehabilitation and gradually ramp up his throwing sessions. The problem is, the Brewers already have six starters in their rotation, so who's getting the boot to make room for Woodruff? We can pretty safely eliminate Corbin Burnes, and the Brewers front office has reaffirmed their unwillingness to trade him, so we'll likely continue to see him take the mound. Wade Miley is having one of the best seasons of his long career, posting a 3.06 ERA and 1.15 WHIP while also being the only lefty starter on the team. Julio Teheran has been solid at eating innings and is still a cromulent starter, posting a 3.64 ERA skewed by conceding 13 runs in his past two starts. Adrian Houser recently returned from his own IL stint and has been solid. Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea have been slightly below average, both posting ERA+ values of 90. If the Brewers decide to simply remove someone from the roster, I imagine it will be Rea. However, given that he's already done so a few times this season, Houser could also be moved to the bullpen, ceding his spot in the starting rotation to Woodruff. Milwaukee could also choose to shift some of their excess pitching pieces in exchange for prospects or players to bolster their somewhat lean infield. Potential Rowdy Resurgence Rowdy Tellez is not having a great year. Currently posting a .672 OPS (83 OPS+) and a -0.4 rWAR, Tellez has been unable to fulfill his role as an RBI contributor. While he had 89 last season, second only to Willy Adames's 98, Tellez currently has just 36, on pace for just 64 total RBI this season. He's struggling in so many areas, making infrequent hard contact (38.5%, 37th percentile), striking out more than league average (24.0%, 36th percentile), and whiffing on breaking balls (31.3%) and off-speed pitches (31.8%) alike. With Darin Ruf on the 60-day IL and Owen Miller having to cover every position in the sport of baseball, Tellez's responsibilities at first base are pretty much his and his alone when he returns from the IL. With this season being the final year of his contract, it's even more crucial that he perform at the highest level before heading into arbitration eligibility in 2024 and free agency in 2025. What storylines are you watching most closely as the Brewers head to Cincinnati to open the second half of the campaign? Let us know what you think. View full article
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3 Brewers Second-Half Storylines That May Make or Break October
Jason Wang posted an article in Brewers
Standoff In The NL Central Ever since Cincinnati called up Elly De La Cruz and brought Joey Votto back from the IL, they've gone on a tear, having an incredible month of June that included a 12-game win streak. Powered by their young nucleus that includes standouts like Matt McLain, TJ Friedl, and Spencer Steer, they posted a team OPS of .791, 4th in MLB, last month. On the other hand, the Brewers continued their summer slump, posting a .655 OPS, 27th in MLB. This clear disparity in offense allowed the Reds to close a large divisional deficit and overtake Milwaukee by one game in the NL Central. Based on FanGraphs' playoff projections, the Brewers still have a 54.4% chance to clinch the division, whereas the Reds have a just a 29.9% chance, but those numbers could change quickly with a winning or losing streak by either team. Interestingly enough, Baseball Reference gives the Brewers, Reds, and Cubs somewhat even chances of clinching the division at 36.6%, 34.5%, and 27.7% respectively. FanGraphs is a little more pessimistic, giving the Cubs just a 5.6% chance to take the top spot. If you choose to go off of Pythagorean wins and losses, all three teams are still quite even. Milwaukee Brewers Cincinnati Reds Chicago Cubs Wins 44 45 47 Losses 47 46 42 So who knows what will happen? The Brewers can't hit, the Reds can't pitch, and the Cubs keep getting unlucky in close games. Shuffling The Starting Rotation Fans have been awaiting Brandon Woodruff's return from the IL, and he's been making progress, staying in Milwaukee during the All-Star break to continue his rehabilitation and gradually ramp up his throwing sessions. The problem is, the Brewers already have six starters in their rotation, so who's getting the boot to make room for Woodruff? We can pretty safely eliminate Corbin Burnes, and the Brewers front office has reaffirmed their unwillingness to trade him, so we'll likely continue to see him take the mound. Wade Miley is having one of the best seasons of his long career, posting a 3.06 ERA and 1.15 WHIP while also being the only lefty starter on the team. Julio Teheran has been solid at eating innings and is still a cromulent starter, posting a 3.64 ERA skewed by conceding 13 runs in his past two starts. Adrian Houser recently returned from his own IL stint and has been solid. Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea have been slightly below average, both posting ERA+ values of 90. If the Brewers decide to simply remove someone from the roster, I imagine it will be Rea. However, given that he's already done so a few times this season, Houser could also be moved to the bullpen, ceding his spot in the starting rotation to Woodruff. Milwaukee could also choose to shift some of their excess pitching pieces in exchange for prospects or players to bolster their somewhat lean infield. Potential Rowdy Resurgence Rowdy Tellez is not having a great year. Currently posting a .672 OPS (83 OPS+) and a -0.4 rWAR, Tellez has been unable to fulfill his role as an RBI contributor. While he had 89 last season, second only to Willy Adames's 98, Tellez currently has just 36, on pace for just 64 total RBI this season. He's struggling in so many areas, making infrequent hard contact (38.5%, 37th percentile), striking out more than league average (24.0%, 36th percentile), and whiffing on breaking balls (31.3%) and off-speed pitches (31.8%) alike. With Darin Ruf on the 60-day IL and Owen Miller having to cover every position in the sport of baseball, Tellez's responsibilities at first base are pretty much his and his alone when he returns from the IL. With this season being the final year of his contract, it's even more crucial that he perform at the highest level before heading into arbitration eligibility in 2024 and free agency in 2025. What storylines are you watching most closely as the Brewers head to Cincinnati to open the second half of the campaign? Let us know what you think.

