Jason Wang

While it wasn’t the season we were hoping for, there were definitely some individual improvements over last season that deserve to be mentioned. Here are some of the players who took the biggest steps forward. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo & Brewer Fanatic Christian Yelich Like the old metal slide at your local playground, Yelich was piping at the beginning of the summer. Despite his inability to sustain it through the remainder of the season, his overall slash line of .278/.370/.447 was a direct upgrade over his 2022 campaign, improving in every offensive category. His .818 OPS and 124 OPS+ were the best since his monstrous 2019 season. The new rules also allowed him to steal 28 bases, nearly matching his single-season best of 30. That, combined with a significant boost to his fielding range, lifted him to 3.6 rWAR in 2023, 0.9 more than the previous year and third most on the team. At this point, I think it’s safe to say we’re probably not going to see 1,000+ OPS Christian Yelich ever again. The best we can hope for is a consistent ~.800 OPS with decent defense and not much else. He’s not quite the $215 million superstar Milwaukee fans thought they were getting, but he saw a boost in performance nonetheless. Bryse Wilson Bryse Wilson came to Milwaukee from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for cash considerations. Expectations were low after a 2022 season that saw him post a 5.52 ERA over 115 ⅔ innings. Still, the geniuses in the Brewers’ pitching development team turned him from a starter into a long reliever. What followed was the best season of his career by far. Wilson’s ERA improved drastically to 2.58 over 76 ⅔ innings, often coming in for several innings at a time. He was still the same pitcher with below-average fastball velocity and difficulty striking out opposing batters. However, adapting his style to pitch to contact was the secret sauce that turned him into an integral part of the second-best bullpen in MLB. By utilizing his cutter more often for weak contact, his average exit velocity decreased by 2.8mph, and his fly ball rate increased by 5.5%. The cutter went from his least-used pitch in 2022 to his second-most pitch in 2023. Hoby Milner One does not simply mention standouts within one of the best bullpens in baseball without mentioning Hoby Milner. Last year, Milner was a relatively average reliever with a 3.76 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. This year, he became one of the best arms in the sport. Finally, figuring out how to best utilize his low velocity and strange delivery, Milner’s 2023 ERA of 1.82 and WHIP of 0.96 are comparable to some of the best relievers in the sport. With an average fastball velocity of 88.5mph, which places him comfortably in the second percentile, his strikeout and whiff numbers are below average. However, his exceptional walk rate (5.2%, 92nd percentile) and strong ability to induce weak contact synergized perfectly with the best infield defense in the league. To illustrate this point, his FIP was 3.13, significantly higher than his actual ERA. Hoby the hero was a perfect fit with this Brewers team. Honorable Mentions Some other players saw bumps in performance, but not as much as the three mentioned above. Freddy Peralta’s cumulative season stats seem like more of a regression from the previous season, but his second half tells the real story. His 2.81 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 12.6 K/9 over 73 ⅔ innings after the All-Star break was the form Brewers fans had been searching for since his career-best 2021 season. Joel Payamps followed a similar path as Bryse Wilson, coming over from the Oakland Athletics in the three-team trade that included the Atlanta Braves and gave Milwaukee William Contreras and pitching prospect Justin Yeager. His ERA improved from 3.23 to 2.55, and his K% went from 17.0% to 26.8%, with improvements in nearly all of his pitching peripherals. Colin Rea spent his 2022 season in NPB, pitching to an unremarkable 4.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 100 innings in the Japanese Pacific League. After signing a minor league contract with the Brewers to start a second stint with the organization, he was called up in early April and became a long-term part of the starting rotation. He was a valuable arm in the back of the rotation, posting a 4.55 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 124 ⅔ innings. View full article

I, for one, was singing about Hoby for all 162 games of the regular season!

With the Brewers out of playoff contention, eyes have redirected to the Arizona Fall League, where eight prospects were sent to the Surprise Saguaros - five pitchers and three position players. Image courtesy of © Curt Hogg / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK Game Results Monday, 10/2 | Mesa 8, Surprise 13 Tuesday, 10/3 | Peoria 9, Surprise 0 Wednesday, 10/4 | Surprise 1, Glendale 7 Thursday, 10/5 | Surprise 5, Salt River 8 Friday, 10/6 | Surprise 9, Scottsdale 6 Saturday, 10/7 | Surprise 7, Glendale 2 After a strong start against the Mesa Solar Sox, the Saguaros lost three games and were outscored 24-6 over that same span. Nonetheless, the Brewers' prospects performed well, with standout performances from position players and pitchers alike. 2B Eric Brown Jr. Week: 5-for-18, 2B, 3B, BB, 2 RBI, 5K (4 games) Eric Brown Jr. split his time evenly between shortstop and second base across four games this week, gradually moving up in the lineup to the leadoff spot. He played a role in the Saguaros’ first win of the week, netting two RBI and hitting a triple. Throughout the remainder of the week, he accumulated three more hits and a double across the last three games. He’s currently slashing .278/.316/.444. 1B Wes Clarke Week: 6-for-16, 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 9 RBI, 6 K (4 games) Wes Clarke had an exceptional week, posting an OPS of 1.349, the fourth-best across the entire AFL thus far. His momentum started in the team’s first win over the Mesa Solar Sox, accumulating eight total bases and four RBI. In the last game of the week, Clarke had a similar performance, accumulating five total bases and hitting a three-run homer on his way to another four RBI. OF Hendry Mendez Week: 2-for-11, 2B, BB, 3 K (3 games) Lefty outfielder Hendry Mendez patrolled both corners of the outfield while hitting two doubles in three games. He received a slightly smaller sample size of at-bats but is working on finding his swing and refining his approach at the plate. Mendez is currently slashing .182/.250.364. RHP Joseph Hernandez Week: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 2 K Joseph Hernandez appeared in one game, pitching 2 ⅓ innings in relief in the Saguaros’ 7-2 victory over the Glendale Desert Dogs. He gave up just one hit and threw 59 pitches, 31 of which were strikes (52.5%). He struggled a bit with control, walking four batters, hitting two, and throwing a wild pitch, but despite the slightly increased traffic, he held Glendale to just one unearned run, allowing him to keep his spotless ERA at 0.00. LHP Justin King Week: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 K Justin King earned the final four outs for the Saguaros in the team’s third game of the week, taking the mound in the eighth inning. His one earned run came from a double by Rowdey Jordan that scored Corey Rosier, who had stolen his way into scoring position. Despite falling behind early, King was able to retire the next three batters in order. King threw 22 pitches, 12 of which were strikes (54.5%). LHP Adam Seminaris Week: 4.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K Adam Seminaris had one of the best pitching performances out of all the Saguaros this week. In the week's final game against the Desert Dogs, Seminaris entered the game in the second inning and allowed just one baserunner over four innings while striking out seven. He tossed 52 pitches and 36 strikes (69.2%). Seminaris had the second-greatest workload this week, trailing only the Blue Jays’ Ricky Tiedemann. He’s currently tied with Tiedemann for the most strikeouts on the team. RHP Shane Smith Week: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K Shane Smith kept it simple this week, appearing in the ninth inning of the Saguaro’s 9-0 loss to the Peoria Javelinas. Despite not being in a save situation, Smith pitched like a top-tier closer, conceding just one hit and striking out two in 1 ⅓ innings of relief. He threw 19 pitches, 15 of which were strikes (78.9%). Like teammates Hernandez and Seminaris, he’s kept his 0.00 ERA for the week. RHP Justin Yeager Week: 1.0 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 0 BB, 0 K, L Justin Yeager worked through a tough inning against the Glendale Desert Dogs. After four consecutive hits, including a double and a leadoff home run, Yeager got a flyout and two groundouts. Despite the amount of baserunners, he was surprisingly efficient and used just 18 pitches, 14 of which were strikes (77.8%). View full article

The Milwaukee Brewers end their 2023 season with a whimper, getting swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks. Image courtesy of © Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK Box Score Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta - 5.0 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 85 pitches, 52 strikes (61.2%) Home Runs: None Top 3 WPA: Mark Canha (.133), Christian Yelich (.116), Hoby Milner (.082) Bottom 3 WPA: Freddy Peralta (-.214), Sal Frelick (-.202), Abner Uribe (-.168) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Freddy Falls Short In Five Like Corbin Burnes before him, Freddy Peralta had a great beginning to his start. In the first four innings, he allowed just one baserunner, Ketel Marte, on a walk. He also recorded five strikeouts. After two outs in the fifth inning, Alek Thomas broke up the no-hitter in a big way, knocking in a solo home run to put the Diamondbacks on the board. Peralta’s performance hit a brick wall in the sixth inning. Following a walk by Geraldo Perdomo, a double by Corbin Carroll, and a single by Ketel Marte, Arizona scored two more runs and took the lead. Subsequently, Peralta was replaced by Abner Uribe before recording a single out in the inning. It was absolutely not the performance Milwaukee needed out of their starting pitcher and was reminiscent of how the team lost the first game of the series. If the Brewers had been able to save more bullpen arms from the prior game, perhaps he would’ve been pulled earlier before the going got rough. News Flash: The Brewers Offense Is Not Good Like the first game of the series, Milwaukee got to work early. They loaded the bases off of two singles by Christian Yelich and Mark Canha as well as a walk by Carlos Santana. A sacrifice fly by Sal Frelick plated the Brewers’ first run and a single by Willy Adames plated the second. Unfortunately, that was all they could really muster. Diamondbacks pitchers faced the minimum in four innings. Milwaukee had an excellent opportunity in the eighth inning, loading the bases on singles from Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and Mark Canha. With just one out, Arizona called in reliever Andrew Saalfrank who got two forceouts from Sal Frelick and Willy Adames, closing the window on a Brewers’ comeback. Hoby the Hero After inheriting runners on first and second, Abner Uribe conceded a single to Tommy Pham and a walk to Jose Herrera. With runners on second and third, a wild pitch by Abner Uribe allowed Tommy Pham to score Arizona’s fourth run. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. kept up the Diamondback onslaught by hitting a one-run single, leading Uribe to be replaced by Hoby Milner. A double play by Alek Thomas ended the four-run rally. Milner extended his relief appearance into the seventh inning, getting a flyout and two strikeouts. He would’ve retired the Diamondbacks in order if Corbin Carroll had been a smidge slower, his speed barely allowing him to beat out an infield throw from Josh Donaldson. Milner has been incredible thus far, conceding just two hits, no walks, and no earned runs in his first postseason run. Megill Steps Up in the Ninth With a seemingly endless barrage of triple-digit fastballs, Trevor Megill stepped up in the final inning to give the team its best chance to comeback and walk things off. He struck out Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Alek Thomas, and Evan Longoria, leaving things purely in the hands of the lineup. The Last Stand Facing Paul Sewald for the second day in a row, Josh Donaldson was the first hitter at the plate. Putting his body on the line, he took an inside pitch to get a free base. Andruw Monasterio struck out looking and Tyrone Taylor hit a liner that just bounced off the glove of Geraldo Perdomo. Unfortunately for Donaldson, he hesitated a second too long attempting to tag up and was still caught out at second on a forceout. Christian Yelich kept things alive with a double to bring Contreras to the plate as the tying runner. Sadly, he would strike out on three pitches, ending the Brewers season in the most disappointing way. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT Uribe 27 0 0 15 19 61 Milner 17 0 0 6 21 44 Williams 12 0 0 31 0 43 Megill 16 0 0 0 15 31 Payamps 11 0 0 18 0 29 Peguero 0 0 0 13 11 24 B. Wilson 0 0 0 6 0 6 Chafin 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

In a competitive start to playoff baseball, two of the Brewers best pitchers fell short in a big way, allowing Arizona to escape with the victory and take an early lead in the Best of 3 series. Image courtesy of Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Starting Pitcher: Corbin Burnes - 4.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 92 pitches, 59 strikes (64.1%) Home Runs: Tyrone Taylor (1) Top 3 WPA: Willy Adames (.190), Abner Uribe (.147), Joel Payamps (.115) Bottom 3 WPA: Corbin Burnes (-.295), Tyrone Taylor (-.211), Devin Williams (-.130) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Burnes Loves The Long Ball Corbin Burnes had a strong start to his outing, utilizing his top-tier infield defense and earning three groundouts in the first inning. After a lead-off single to Christian Walker in the second, Burnes recorded a pop out and two strikeouts to keep things scoreless. Things took a dark turn in the third inning. After striking out Evan Longoria, Burnes gave up a single to Geraldo Perdomo and consecutive home runs to Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte, giving the Diamondbacks a 3-0 lead. After escaping the third inning, Gabriel Moreno led off the fourth with yet another home run, signaling that it was time for Burnes to be pulled. After walking the first two batters in the fifth inning, Craig Counsell made the first call to the bullpen. Despite performing well early, it ended up being a relatively lukewarm performance by the team ace. Never Fear, The Bullpen Is Here Entering the game with men already on first and second with no outs, Abner Uribe quickly got to work. He got a weak grounder from Ketel Marte and struck out Tommy Pham but walked Walker to load the bases. In the highest-leverage situation thus far in his young career, Uribe induced weak contact and got Moreno to ground out, escaping the jam. Over the next four innings, Elvis Peguero, Hoby Milner, and Joel Payamps combined to keep the Diamondbacks from scoring any additional runs. Payamps and William Contreras also pulled off a flashy strike ‘em out/throw ‘em out double play in the seventh inning. Brewers Hitting Falters Late Milwaukee’s hitting has been a concern all season, but in the first two innings, it seemed like they had figured things out. In the first inning, a walk by Christian Yelich became the team’s first run after back-to-back singles by William Contreras and Carlos Santana. Josh Donaldson hit a leadoff single in the second inning and came around on Tyrone Taylor’s two-run home run, a monstrous 403-foot no-doubter to left field. He’s continuing his red-hot performance at the plate, posting an .881 OPS in August and .912 in September. The Brewers had other scoring opportunities but failed to capitalize. They loaded the bases in the third but weren’t able to plate any runners. They loaded the bases again after three consecutive singles by Sal Frelick, Willy Adames, and Josh Donaldson, but a strikeout by Brice Turang and Tyrone Taylor lineout double play put an end to that story. Milwaukee left a total of 11 runners on base and went 3-for-11 with runners in scoring position. Devin Dooms The Team Down by just one run, the appearance of Devin Williams in the top of the ninth inning was initially a welcomed sight. After all, his regular season ERA and WHIP of 1.53 and 0.92 made him one of the best closers in baseball. Unfortunately for Brewers’ fans, it wasn’t Devin’s day. He started off by walking Perdomo and Carroll. After striking out Marte on a foul tip and yet another great defensive play by Contreras to catch Perdomo stealing third, Williams needed just one more out. A wild pitch allowed Carroll to advance to third base before Williams gave up a walk to Tommy Pham, his third of the inning. After a stolen base, Christian Walker crushed a two-run double to the gap. It was the nail in the coffin, lifting the score to 6-3 in favor of the Diamondbacks. Bryse Wilson was called in for the final out, a groundout by Gabriel Moreno. What’s Next? The Crew will face off against the top of the Diamondbacks rotation, starting with Zac Gallen in Game 2. Freddy Peralta will take the mound for Milwaukee and hopefully have a better start than Burnes, especially given that six relievers were used in Game 1. The team will have to resolve its pitching issues especially given that aspect of the team is supposed to be its greatest strength. Being one game from elimination, it’s as stressful a time as any. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT Williams 0 12 0 0 31 43 Uribe 0 27 0 0 15 42 Payamps 0 11 0 0 18 29 B. Wilson 21 0 0 0 6 27 Milner 0 17 0 0 6 23 Megill 0 16 0 0 0 16 Peguero 0 0 0 0 13 13 Tweet Highlights View full article

The starting rotation takes a unique form in the postseason, often shifting from five men to four. Starters get more rest and miss fewer games. So, who’s getting left behind or sent to the bullpen? Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Brewer Fanatic Thanks to a very strange schedule for the NLDS that has three off days in a best-of-five series, there's a way for the Brewers not to need a fourth starter unless and until the NLCS. It's still likely that they need a fourth, but it might be in a limited capacity. Let's dig into the options. The Essentials Corbin Burnes This should be a surprise to no one. Sure, his season isn’t quite what many had hoped (himself included), but he’s still the team’s top starter. Posting a 3.46 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 189 ⅔ innings this year, he’s still very much a threat to any lineup in October. Moreover, he’s starting to warm up at just the right time. In his four starts thus far this month, he’s posted a 2.92 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over 24 ⅔ innings. His rate of strikeouts per nine innings has jumped up to 10.6, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio has reached 4.14, the highest it has been all year. Just three starts ago, he pitched a gem against the New York Yankees, going eight no-hit innings. He doesn’t have a significant amount of postseason experience, but it should be enough to promise some level of consistency when the time comes and the pressure starts to build. Brandon Woodruff Let’s face it: Woodruff’s 2023 run has been incredible, but without a more significant sample size, we’re still not sure if he’d be ready to take over the mantle of ace. Remember, Julio Teheran had Brewers fans thinking he was one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball before falling apart and regressing to his usual self at around the 50-inning mark. Obviously, Woodruff and Teheran aren't the same caliber of pitcher, but Woodruff's injury does still live in the backs of fans' minds. Nonetheless, he deserves credit for what he’s done so far, which is to post a 2.28 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over 67 innings pitched. He’s done nothing but deal since returning from the IL and despite a rough start against the Marlins that saw him concede four earned runs in five innings, he’s been nearly untouchable. Additionally, his 3.18 ERA over 28 ⅓ postseason innings is a solid indicator of his performance in the playoffs. Freddy Peralta Second-half Freddy Peralta is fighting for a spot up there with Hoodie Carmelo Anthony and Untucked Kyrie Irving in terms of mythical sports figures. His mediocre first-half ERA of 4.70 pales in comparison to what he’s done after the All-Star Break. A 2.81 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over 73 ⅔ innings seems like the stat line for a completely different player. In a certain way, he's become one. The one difference between him and his two aforementioned comrades is his comparative lack of playoff experience. He’s made just one start, pitching four scoreless innings against the Braves in the 2021 NLDS. Let’s hope he keeps up his momentum for another month. The Alternates Wade Miley Wade Miley still might be one of the most underrated starters in the National League. Maybe this is because his pitch-to-contact style synergizes perfectly with one of the best defensive infields in MLB. His strikeouts per nine frames and strikeout-to-walk figures of 6.0 and 2.08 leave much to be desired, but his 3.20 ERA speaks for itself. In fact, in terms of ERA+, his 136 is the third-best season of his lengthy 13-year career. Miley is not exactly as dominant as you might want. However, he is the only lefty starter the Brewers have, which could add massive value. In fact, he’s one of just three lefty pitchers on the active roster, the other two being Hoby Milner and Andrew Chafin. Unfortunately, four of the teams (Braves, Dodgers, Phillies, and Cubs) on the NL side of the postseason bracket are within the top 10 of teams with the highest OPS against lefty pitching. Thus, we may see less of Miley than some might hope. Adrian Houser Houser is a serviceable fifth option in the rotation. He’s not the most dominant arm to ever take the ball, but he can give your team four or five quality innings. More importantly, he’s a slight upgrade over teammate Colin Rea, who has been bouncing between the Sounds and the Brewers over the last month or so. Houser’s September has been his best month since June, posting a 3.94 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 16 innings pitched--an improvement over the two months prior thereto, in which he gave up 26 earned runs over 44 innings. He may also fulfill a relief role, but his last playoff outing in 2021 saw him give up four earned runs in just two innings to the Atlanta Braves. He’s still very capable, I promise! Just don’t expect him to carry the team on his back to a World Series trophy. How They'll Fit Expect Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta to get as many of the starts as Craig Counsell can give them, provided adequate rest. If the Crew sweeps the Wild Card Series, they could get all the way to NLCS Game 4 before needing a fourth starter, let alone a fifth. Presumably, though, this team is also thinking about going all the way and winning the World Series. October is longer and more of a grind than it used to be. Counsell could elect to get Miley into the rotation during the NLDS even before absolutely necessary, to continue getting the Big Three an extra day between appearances here and there. That could be the best way for them to remain fresh come Halloween. In any case, expect Miley and Houser to be available out of the bullpen in the Wild Card Series, and Houser to be stuck there as an emergency-only long man. Miley is the man whose role will be more fluid and (potentially) interesting. 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Each playoff game matters immensely, and it's important that the Brewers field the best roster possible. However, depth is also important, and the Brewers will mix and match a bit even in October. Who is going to take the field in every game, and who's going to be filling a platoon role within the infield? Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Brewer Fanatic At three of the four around-the-horn infield positions, the Brewers will enter the playoffs with a substantially different situation than we would have projected coming into the season. That they've gotten this far despite some enforced changes of plans is a testament to their organizational depth, and to Craig Counsell's managerial nous. The Main Starters 1B - Carlos Santana Carlos Santana is a league-average hitter who has posted an OPS+ of 99, with 11 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and an Outs Above Average (OAA) mark of 4. He's no Freddie Freeman, but his improved hitting and stellar defense is a significant upgrade over Rowdy Tellez at this point. He's also a veteran clubhouse presence with considerable playoff experience. 2B - Andruw Monasterio Similarly, Andruw Monasterio isn't anyone's first choice at second base. He started off in the hot corner this season, but with the arrival of Josh Donaldson and Brice Turang's offensive numbers continuing to decline, his OPS+ of 89 and DRS of 3 as a second baseman will have to suffice. He's been valuable as a rookie thus far, managing a 1.6 rWAR and filling a valuable utility role. 3B - Josh Donaldson Speaking of Donaldson, he's made big improvements since being released by the New York Yankees. While still struggling to hit for average, his slash line of .205/.300/.477 tells you he's still got some power left. He's also an underrated fielder, posting 7 DRS and 7 OAA last year in New York. With roughly 1/3 of the innings workload this season, he's at about the same pace, posting 2 DRS, and he's looked unexpectedly agile there since joining the Crew. SS - Willy Adames Last but not least, we have Adames. He isn’t the same guy who posted a 137 OPS+ for the Brewers in 2021. He's been slowly declining in offense since then. However, he’s still one of the best infielders on the roster. He's got a slightly above-average expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .339, but the Brewers get the most value out of his glove, which has posted a 98th-percentile 13 OAA and a handsome 7 DRS. His fielding run value is in the 93rd percentile, and he’s been a big part of the Brewers’ defensive dominance. Counsell gushes about the way Adams has held that unit together throughout the season, and especially down the stretch. That’s why, despite just a 91 wRC+, he’s posted a 3.0 fWAR for the year--the highest out of any Brewers infielder and the third-highest of any position player. The Platoon 2B - Brice Turang Offensively, Turang hasn’t figured out exactly what works for him at the major-league level. Posting a measly OPS of .595 and a wRC+ of 63, he’s the worst qualified hitter on the team. On one hand, he doesn’t strike out too often (21.2%, 56th percentile) and doesn’t chase (26.8%, 61st percentile) or whiff (21.9%, 69th percentile) much more than the average big leaguer. On the other, his total lack of power is what has been killing him. He performs significantly worse than Monasterio against southpaw pitching (.452 OPS vs. .767), but has some wheels and is (more importantly) a capable defender, posting 12 DRS at second base this year. In an event where the Brewers decide to focus on having lockdown defense at the cost of some offensive production, Turang might get some time in the spotlight. 3B - Brian Anderson Donaldson has performed well against lefties this season (.954 OPS) but looks completely lost against righties (.580). Luckily, Brian Anderson, although seeing little playing time recently, has a slightly better .694 OPS against righties. His role on the team has been in flux all year, but with some versatile pieces and the right matchup, he might be able to add some value to the squad after all--if Counsell will let him out of whatever doghouse he's landed in. Break In Case of Emergency Rowdy Tellez With Santana starting to eat up more time at first base and Donaldson arising as a new competitor at DH, Tellez will get fewer opportunities to salvage what has been quite a disappointing season. Failing to improve upon last year’s 110 wRC+, Rowdy has posted a meager .664 OPS and 77 wRC+ over 341 plate appearances this season. His percentile rankings are actually quite good, especially when it comes to avoiding whiffs and pitches outside of the zone. Unfortunately, his 18th-percentile xwOBA of .299 holds him back from excelling as an offense-oriented first baseman. A lack of other tools has punished him severely as a player this season. Without his ability to create hits, accumulate RBI, and be an effective bat, his fWAR has plummeted to -1.0 for 2023, a tragic deviation from the progress he made in 2022. He might still get some time at DH, but he doesn't offer much improvement over Santana at this point. View full article

With their most dominant win of the season, the Milwaukee Brewers officially punched their ticket to the playoffs for the fifth time in the past six years. Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports It's not the milestone the Brewers are aiming for. They'll wait until their next win (or the next Cubs loss) to line the clubhouse with plastic and don the ski goggles for champagne sprays and beer showers. They want the NL Central crown, and they'll have it. They want the NL pennant, and that will be hard but exhilarating work. On Friday night, though, they took one important step on that path, securing a place in the tournament. How It Went Down In what was supposed to be just another bullpen day for the Miami Marlins, the Brewers had one of the most violent second innings in the history of baseball, scoring 12 runs. After some much-needed rest, Christian Yelich went 3-4 with two home runs, five RBI, and an astounding 10 total bases. Maybe an extended break is exactly what he needed to return to form. On the pitching side of things, Corbin Burnes went five shutout innings and struck out six. Trevor Megill and Andrew Chafin kept the Marlins at zero runs and Bryse Wilson gave up a solo home run to Jon Berti to close the lead to 15 runs. In the ninth inning, closer Rowdy Tellez used his perfect command of the zone to paint corners and pitch a scoreless ninth inning, while recording his first career strikeout as a pitcher. It was the perfect way to sew up their place in the postseason. A dominant display of force over a competitive opponent that may end up being their first round matchup should have fans excited for what’s to come. Like Your Annoying Coworker's Pen, Things Are Clicking It hasn’t been the smoothest season. The Brewers have lost the division lead to both the Pirates and the Reds at least once this year but have managed to reclaim and hold it since August. Part of the struggle was the abysmal hitting in the first half. Before the All-Star break, the team combined for an OPS of just .689, 25th in MLB. Players like Jesse Winker, Luis Urias, and Luke Voit were freezing cold and swinging dead bats. After some roster adjustments, new faces like Mark Canha, Carlos Santana, Sal Frelick, and Josh Donaldson joined the lineup in the second half and began to revive the team at the plate. Furthermore, some players made big strides to improve on their pre-All Star figures. Here are the three biggest upgrades: Pre-ASB OPS Post-ASB OPS William Contreras .773 .875 Tyrone Taylor .419 .867 Blake Perkins .614 .793 To bolster an already formidable starting rotation, Brandon Woodruff returned to pitching full-time and at peak form. Burnes and Freddy Peralta went from 3.94 and 4.70 first-half ERAs to 2.84 and 2.42 ERA figures in the second. Inconsistent bullpen pieces like Matt Bush and Peter Strzelecki were removed to make room for the likes of Abner Uribe and a more refined version of Trevor Megill. What's Next This playoff run will not be an easy one. The Wild Card is full of scrappy teams (aside from the Marlins, I guess), and the Dodgers and the Braves are both monumental challenges in their own right. This team hasn’t always made the perfect move, but the roster has been managed well, making hard decisions when needed and the team is already seeing big returns. Let’s hope for continued dividends through October--and perhaps even into the start of November. View full article

As one of the three teams with 79 wins, the Marlins are competing with the Cubs and the Reds for the last NL Wild Card spot. If they’re successful, they’ll face the Brewers in the first round, so how might that go? Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Brewer Fanatic Starting Pitching The Marlins may have one of the most underrated starting rotations in baseball. Sure, defending NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara has regressed heavily and isn’t nearly as dominant as in 2022, but his compatriots have done an incredible job holding down the fort. Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett have performed admirably, but rookie Eury Perez is the name to watch. He’s posted a 3.15 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 91 ⅓ innings pitched. He’s got an ERA+ of 141, the best of any starter on the team, and has been a major piece of what’s made their rotation so successful and given them a combined ERA of 4.15, ninth in MLB. Furthermore, based on how Alcantara is recovering from his flexor strain, he might still be able to make a start in the postseason and continue his second-half momentum (3.20 ERA over 70 ⅓ innings pitched). What Miami needs to improve in peak performance, they make up for in consistency. The Brewers still have a better-combined starter ERA (3.93) over the season, but compared to the Cubs and especially the Reds, the Marlins have the most comparable frontline pitching staff. The first six innings of each game in the series may create fascinating pitching duels. Relief Pitching Unlike their starters, Miami’s bullpen has been somewhat inconsistent this season, posting a combined 4.23 and 1.34 WHIP. Tanner Scott and Andrew Nardi are the only two qualified pitchers on the team with ERAs below 3.00, and there’s quite the disparity between them and the next few guys. Unfortunately for them, the Brewers bullpen is the best of the best, a stark improvement over whatever the Marlins can offer. The likes of JT Chargois (3.46 ERA), George Soriano (3.54 ERA), and Bryan Hoeing (4.19 ERA) can’t compare to the Hoby Milners and Bryse Wilsons of the world. The Brewers will have a significant pitching advantage in the later innings and should look to do most of their scoring against the weaker part of the Marlins pitching staff. Lineup The Miami Marlins are one of the few playoff teams with a potentially worse offense than the Brewers, albeit by a small margin. Their team OPS of .712 puts them just below Milwaukee’s mark of .721. However, there are still some key bats that may spell trouble if not respected properly. Jake Burger has been one of MLB's best trade deadline moves, similar to the Brewers’ own acquisition of Mark Canha. He’s slashing .308/.364/.521 over 187 plate appearances and has quickly become the team’s most valuable offensive piece. Luis Arraez is no longer chasing the hallowed mark of a .400 batting average, but .354 would still be the highest full-season mark since Josh Hamilton in 2010. Jorge Soler has mashed 36 home runs, and Jesus Sanchez has been consistently above average all year, posting an OPS+ of 113. The Brewers have made big hitting strides after the All-Star break but still have a ways to go. While they lack the same power threat (Willy Adames leads the team in HR with 24), they’ve got slightly more depth and momentum at the plate than the Marlins. Overall Takeaways Of the three teams fighting for the #6 seed, FanGraphs has given the Marlins the best odds at taking the spot at 54.1%. If they face Milwaukee in the first round of the postseason, they’ll be a formidable foe. Still, their lack of a formidable bullpen will likely be their Achilles heel, a weakness the Brewers can exploit to cruise into the NLDS. View full article

Diamondbacks Starters: 4.70 ERA (21st in MLB) Brewers Starters: 3.96 ERA (7th in MLB) Diamondbacks Relievers: 4.33 ERA (20th in MLB) Brewers Relievers: 3.51 ERA (3rd in MLB) Diamondbacks Offense in the First Half: .754 OPS (7th in MLB) Brewers Offense in the First Half: .689 OPS (25th in MLB) Diamondbacks Offense in the Second Half: .715 OPS (18th in MLB) Brewers Offense in the Second Half: .719 OPS (17th in MLB) Looks like momentum sides with us. Pitching continues to remain consistent and the new Brewers bats have, contrary to a lot of people's beliefs, definitely contributed. Mark Canha (132 OPS+) Josh Donaldson (114 OPS+) Sal Frelick (110 OPS+) William Contreras .873 OPS in the second half helps too. Things are trending in the right direction.

The Phillies are one of the scrappiest and hardest-hitting teams in the National League. If they meet the Brewers in the postseason, does Milwaukee have enough to overcome the power of brotherly love? Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Brewer Fanatic The Phillies have a slight but consistent lead over the remainder of the NL Wild Card pack, so they’ll likely start on the other side of the NL bracket. However, if they lose enough games to slide to the sixth seed (currently held by the Cubs) or make it to the NLCS along with the Brewers, we’ll see these two teams face off in a heated contest. Starting Pitching Last year, Philadelphia had a 1-2 punch that rivaled the Brewers’ own. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler were two of the most formidable pitchers in the National League in 2022, but this year has been a step back for both of them--especially for Nola. Going from a 3.25 ERA and Cy Young votes to a 4.62 ERA and strikeout-to-walk ratio that’s half of what it was in 2022, he’s seen a significant decline in performance. The rest of the rotation is slightly better than average, with Cristopher Sanchez leading the squad with a 3.40 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Despite his no-hitter, trade deadline acquisition Michael Lorenzen has a 5.23 ERA over 43 innings pitched with the team. The Brewers have a slightly better starter ERA this year (3.97 vs 4.25), but in a playoff series that would either be best-of-three or best-of-seven, the top of the rotation is what matters most. Because of the fluidity of the rotation in a postseason situation, rotations tend to be more compact. The Brewers' 1-2-3 combination of Corbin Burnes (3.56 ERA), Brandon Woodruff (1.89 ERA), and Freddy Peralta (3.71 ERA) is simply more effective than any three-pitcher combination the Phillies can put together. Relief Pitching The Phillies have some great names in the bullpen. Matt Strahm (3.24 ERA), Jeff Hoffman (2.20 ERA), and closer Craig Kimbrel (3.29 ERA) are tough matchups for most batters. Unfortunately for the Phils (in this hypothetical showdown), when it comes to relief pitching, only two teams have a better staff than the Brewers. With the third-best reliever ERA in MLB 3.51, there are few names in Milwaukee that aren’t considered elite. ERA WHIP Devin Williams 1.59 0.92 Bryse Wilson 2.63 1.08 Joel Payamps 2.42 1.03 Elvis Peguero 3.38 1.22 Hoby Milner 1.91 0.96 Trevor Megill 3.58 1.29 Abner Uribe 1.29 1.07 The outlier is Andrew Chafin, who’s racked up a 7.82 ERA since arriving from Arizona, but with so many other great arms from whom to choose, he’ll likely receive few (if any) innings. Lineup The Brewers have managed to improve their offense to be right around league-average in the second half of the season (.715 OPS, 17th in MLB) but are handily beaten by what the Phillies have managed in the same timeframe (.806 OPS, 4th in MLB). With every qualified player on their roster posting an OPS+ above 100, the Phillies approach to winning is in stark contrast to that of the Brewers: offense first. After all, it doesn’t matter how many runs your opponent scores, so long as you score more. The three biggest threats on the Phillies lineup card are undoubtedly Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner. Despite receiving Tommy John surgery less than a year ago, Harper’s slash line of .290/.394/.490 shows he’s not to be trifled with. Similarly, Schwarber’s constant treading of the Mendoza line has almost obfuscated the fact that he’s socked 45 home runs, nearly tying his NL-leading total of 46 in 2022. Turner started off freezing cold but is posting a .934 OPS after the All-Star break (and receiving an outpouring of love and support from a generally negative fanbase). Milwaukee will need William Contreras to keep up the positive momentum, Mark Canha’s constant contributions, and Christian Yelich at full strength if they want to hold a candle to the hitting abilities of Philadelphia. A resurgence from Willy Adames and Josh Donaldson wouldn’t hurt either. Overall Takeaways There’s a reason the Phillies made it to the World Series last year and are the top Wild Card team this year. They’ve got a rough-and-tumble style, a die-hard fanbase, and their bats pack a wallop. However, their relatively weak pitching may give the Brewers the advantage they need to squeak by with a string of wins, probably by only a few runs. View full article

Good callout. Subtle but important delineation.

Players don’t always perform the same during the regular season and the postseason. The added pressure of elimination can sometimes be overwhelming. Thankfully, the Brewers are fortunate to have several guys that have been able to step up to the plate when the lights are the brightest. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Brewer Fanatic Having suffered the heat of those October spotlights can temper and harden a player, and the Brewers' previous forays into the postseason under Craig Counsell have done some of that firing already. Here are the guys to whom younger players can turn for insight on the experience ahead, and whom Counsell can trust most to know and manage the moment. Corbin Burnes The team's ace has pitched in a total of three playoff series. Coming out of the bullpen in his rookie year, he made two relief appearances against the Rockies in the 2018 NLDS, pitching four shutout innings and giving up just one hit along the way. In the NLCS against the Dodgers, he gave up two earned runs in five innings. 2021 was Burnes’ first year as a playoff starter, pitching six shutout innings against the eventual world champion Braves. Overall, he’s got a pretty stellar 1.20 ERA and 0.67 WHIP, but over just 15 innings. 2021 was also his Cy Young year, and his 2023 has been a step back from that season, but this year’s peaks have been as good as he's been in any season. With his combination of stuff, command, and stamina, look for Burnes to be an integral piece of the Milwaukee playoff run. Brandon Woodruff Having one of the best regular seasons of his career thus far (well, when he's been available, anyway), it can be easy to forget that Woodruff has also made great starts in the postseason. He pitched alongside Burnes in the 2018 NLDS and NLCS, pitching 12 1/3 innings. Most notably, he pitched 9 ⅓ innings against the Dodgers, giving up just three earned runs. Because of Burnes’s struggles in 2019 and his oblique strain late in 2020, Woodruff picked up the slack, and has nearly twice as much as his rotation mate in the playoffs, posting a cumulative 3.18 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over 28 1/3 innings pitched. He’s been nothing short of incredible since returning from the IL, and there doesn’t seem to be any reason for that momentum to stop any time soon. Carlos Santana A veteran clubhouse presence, Santana has put together 120 postseason plate appearances and an OPS of .681 over the course of his lengthy major-league career. While his best years are undoubtedly behind him, he managed to turn back the clock in last year’s AL Wild Card round. Over nine plate appearances with the Mariners, Santana slashed .250/.333/.750 against the Blue Jays and hit a clutch three-run homer when his team was faced with elimination. This kickstarted a momentous rally that saw Seattle overcome a six-run deficit and punch their ticket to the ALDS. Santana has been right about league-average offensively since coming over from Pittsburgh, but given how young this Brewers team is, he’s one of the few players with robust October baseball experience. Both his bat and his leadership will be key tools. Josh Donaldson Okay, hear me out. Since arriving in Milwaukee, fans have seen an immediate uptick in offensive performance over his time in New York. Like Joey Gallo and Aaron Hicks before him, it seems like New York was the problem for Donaldson--or at least part of it. He’s got even more playoff experience than Santana, putting together 203 plate appearances and a slash line of .246/.335/.397 over 12 series played. Sure, his OPS of .732 is inflated by some monstrous runs with the Blue Jays in his younger years, but who’s to say there isn’t still some of the old “Bringer of Rain” somewhere in there? Furthermore, while he’s not remotely qualified given the amount of time missed to injury, his limited Savant data shows that he’s still hitting the ball hard and walking at an exceptional rate. Don’t expect him to put the entire team on his back, but his experience and intensity might be enough to push the Brewers over the edge. That's not a comprehensive list of the players on the roster who have experience in the postseason, but these four guys have played there the most and the best. They're the ones to whom Sal Frelick or Abner Uribe can turn for advice on the different dynamics of high-stakes baseball. After that, it's up to everyone to perform for themselves, and to write their own heroic October legacies. View full article

I think it depends on how you look at it. I went off of FanGraphs, which gives the Braves and Dodgers both 100.0% chances to clinch byes. That being said, I guess it is mathematically possible for things to end up another way.

Since the Brewers have just about clinched a spot in the playoffs and are a clear favorite to win their division, it’s time to start looking at who they might face in the postseason. Will they make a deep run or a tragically early exit? Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Brewer Fanatic The Current State of Things After an unfortunate (or fortunate, depending on who you ask) five-game losing streak, the Cubs skidded to 6.5 games behind in the NL Central. More importantly, they are back to being neck-and-neck with the Reds. As of now, here are the division standings. While the Brewers’ neighbors have floundered in recent weeks, the other NL Wild Card contenders have pulled ahead, namely the Marlins who just completed a dominating sweep over the Braves this past weekend. As a result, here is what the playoff bracket would look like if the postseason started immediately. Outlook On The Remainder of the Season The Cubs, Marlins, and Reds all have 78 wins while the Diamondbacks have 79, so to say that things are quite close would be an understatement. Heck, the Phillies is only two games ahead of the pack at 81 and the Giants are only two games behind at 76, so we might see some additional shuffling in the next few weeks. One thing that’s almost certain is the Brewers ending up as the #3 seed. The Braves and Dodgers have clinched the #1 and #2 seeds respectively and unless you think the Cubs will capitalize on their 1.2% chance to take the top spot in the NL Central, the Brewers will stay where they are now. That means facing the #6 seed, which according to FanGraphs, is likely going to be the Marlins or the Cubs. Potential Playoff Matchups Milwaukee has a small sample size of just four games against Miami but went 3-1 against them this season. Despite making trades for bats like Josh Bell and Jake Burger at the deadline, the Marlins are posting average offensive numbers (.716 team OPS, 17th in MLB) in the second half. This bodes well for the Brewers, whose pitching seems to have a big advantage over the Miami lineup. Given the three-game setup of the Wild Card round, a quick 1-2 punch of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff paired with any of the devastating arms in the bullpen should make for quick work. The Cubs have been a steeper challenge this year and got hot in July and August, going 33-20. Despite regressing in September, standouts like Justin Steele and Cody Bellinger continue to exceed expectations across the board. Furthermore, they have one of the best defensive infields in baseball. Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson alone combine for 35 OAA and Nick Madrigal's figure of 9 OAA isn't too shabby either. Given the Brewers already weak offense, a three-game series with the Cubs might more of a toss-up. The NLDS is where things start to get a little scary. Going 1-5 against the Dodgers this season, the Brewers' only hope will be a heavily depleted Los Angeles starting rotation. Other than Clayton Kershaw (who is great in the playoffs as we all know), the Dodgers' hopes rest on a handful of young pitchers, Ryan Yarbrough, and Lance Lynn. If Milwaukee is unable to do damage in the early innings, they'll struggle even more with the Dodgers' fourth-best bullpen in baseball (3.57 team ERA). Given the chaos of baseball, it would be conjecture to try and project an NLCS and/or World Series opponent, but one thing is for sure - the Brewers present a real challenge to any team and should not be taken lightly. Hopefully their on-field performance matches up with what they're capable of on paper. View full article