Jason Wang

The starting rotation takes a unique form in the postseason, often shifting from five men to four. Starters get more rest and miss fewer games. So, who’s getting left behind or sent to the bullpen? Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Brewer Fanatic Thanks to a very strange schedule for the NLDS that has three off days in a best-of-five series, there's a way for the Brewers not to need a fourth starter unless and until the NLCS. It's still likely that they need a fourth, but it might be in a limited capacity. Let's dig into the options. The Essentials Corbin Burnes This should be a surprise to no one. Sure, his season isn’t quite what many had hoped (himself included), but he’s still the team’s top starter. Posting a 3.46 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 189 ⅔ innings this year, he’s still very much a threat to any lineup in October. Moreover, he’s starting to warm up at just the right time. In his four starts thus far this month, he’s posted a 2.92 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over 24 ⅔ innings. His rate of strikeouts per nine innings has jumped up to 10.6, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio has reached 4.14, the highest it has been all year. Just three starts ago, he pitched a gem against the New York Yankees, going eight no-hit innings. He doesn’t have a significant amount of postseason experience, but it should be enough to promise some level of consistency when the time comes and the pressure starts to build. Brandon Woodruff Let’s face it: Woodruff’s 2023 run has been incredible, but without a more significant sample size, we’re still not sure if he’d be ready to take over the mantle of ace. Remember, Julio Teheran had Brewers fans thinking he was one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball before falling apart and regressing to his usual self at around the 50-inning mark. Obviously, Woodruff and Teheran aren't the same caliber of pitcher, but Woodruff's injury does still live in the backs of fans' minds. Nonetheless, he deserves credit for what he’s done so far, which is to post a 2.28 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over 67 innings pitched. He’s done nothing but deal since returning from the IL and despite a rough start against the Marlins that saw him concede four earned runs in five innings, he’s been nearly untouchable. Additionally, his 3.18 ERA over 28 ⅓ postseason innings is a solid indicator of his performance in the playoffs. Freddy Peralta Second-half Freddy Peralta is fighting for a spot up there with Hoodie Carmelo Anthony and Untucked Kyrie Irving in terms of mythical sports figures. His mediocre first-half ERA of 4.70 pales in comparison to what he’s done after the All-Star Break. A 2.81 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over 73 ⅔ innings seems like the stat line for a completely different player. In a certain way, he's become one. The one difference between him and his two aforementioned comrades is his comparative lack of playoff experience. He’s made just one start, pitching four scoreless innings against the Braves in the 2021 NLDS. Let’s hope he keeps up his momentum for another month. The Alternates Wade Miley Wade Miley still might be one of the most underrated starters in the National League. Maybe this is because his pitch-to-contact style synergizes perfectly with one of the best defensive infields in MLB. His strikeouts per nine frames and strikeout-to-walk figures of 6.0 and 2.08 leave much to be desired, but his 3.20 ERA speaks for itself. In fact, in terms of ERA+, his 136 is the third-best season of his lengthy 13-year career. Miley is not exactly as dominant as you might want. However, he is the only lefty starter the Brewers have, which could add massive value. In fact, he’s one of just three lefty pitchers on the active roster, the other two being Hoby Milner and Andrew Chafin. Unfortunately, four of the teams (Braves, Dodgers, Phillies, and Cubs) on the NL side of the postseason bracket are within the top 10 of teams with the highest OPS against lefty pitching. Thus, we may see less of Miley than some might hope. Adrian Houser Houser is a serviceable fifth option in the rotation. He’s not the most dominant arm to ever take the ball, but he can give your team four or five quality innings. More importantly, he’s a slight upgrade over teammate Colin Rea, who has been bouncing between the Sounds and the Brewers over the last month or so. Houser’s September has been his best month since June, posting a 3.94 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 16 innings pitched--an improvement over the two months prior thereto, in which he gave up 26 earned runs over 44 innings. He may also fulfill a relief role, but his last playoff outing in 2021 saw him give up four earned runs in just two innings to the Atlanta Braves. He’s still very capable, I promise! Just don’t expect him to carry the team on his back to a World Series trophy. How They'll Fit Expect Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta to get as many of the starts as Craig Counsell can give them, provided adequate rest. If the Crew sweeps the Wild Card Series, they could get all the way to NLCS Game 4 before needing a fourth starter, let alone a fifth. Presumably, though, this team is also thinking about going all the way and winning the World Series. October is longer and more of a grind than it used to be. Counsell could elect to get Miley into the rotation during the NLDS even before absolutely necessary, to continue getting the Big Three an extra day between appearances here and there. That could be the best way for them to remain fresh come Halloween. In any case, expect Miley and Houser to be available out of the bullpen in the Wild Card Series, and Houser to be stuck there as an emergency-only long man. Miley is the man whose role will be more fluid and (potentially) interesting. 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Each playoff game matters immensely, and it's important that the Brewers field the best roster possible. However, depth is also important, and the Brewers will mix and match a bit even in October. Who is going to take the field in every game, and who's going to be filling a platoon role within the infield? Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Brewer Fanatic At three of the four around-the-horn infield positions, the Brewers will enter the playoffs with a substantially different situation than we would have projected coming into the season. That they've gotten this far despite some enforced changes of plans is a testament to their organizational depth, and to Craig Counsell's managerial nous. The Main Starters 1B - Carlos Santana Carlos Santana is a league-average hitter who has posted an OPS+ of 99, with 11 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and an Outs Above Average (OAA) mark of 4. He's no Freddie Freeman, but his improved hitting and stellar defense is a significant upgrade over Rowdy Tellez at this point. He's also a veteran clubhouse presence with considerable playoff experience. 2B - Andruw Monasterio Similarly, Andruw Monasterio isn't anyone's first choice at second base. He started off in the hot corner this season, but with the arrival of Josh Donaldson and Brice Turang's offensive numbers continuing to decline, his OPS+ of 89 and DRS of 3 as a second baseman will have to suffice. He's been valuable as a rookie thus far, managing a 1.6 rWAR and filling a valuable utility role. 3B - Josh Donaldson Speaking of Donaldson, he's made big improvements since being released by the New York Yankees. While still struggling to hit for average, his slash line of .205/.300/.477 tells you he's still got some power left. He's also an underrated fielder, posting 7 DRS and 7 OAA last year in New York. With roughly 1/3 of the innings workload this season, he's at about the same pace, posting 2 DRS, and he's looked unexpectedly agile there since joining the Crew. SS - Willy Adames Last but not least, we have Adames. He isn’t the same guy who posted a 137 OPS+ for the Brewers in 2021. He's been slowly declining in offense since then. However, he’s still one of the best infielders on the roster. He's got a slightly above-average expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .339, but the Brewers get the most value out of his glove, which has posted a 98th-percentile 13 OAA and a handsome 7 DRS. His fielding run value is in the 93rd percentile, and he’s been a big part of the Brewers’ defensive dominance. Counsell gushes about the way Adams has held that unit together throughout the season, and especially down the stretch. That’s why, despite just a 91 wRC+, he’s posted a 3.0 fWAR for the year--the highest out of any Brewers infielder and the third-highest of any position player. The Platoon 2B - Brice Turang Offensively, Turang hasn’t figured out exactly what works for him at the major-league level. Posting a measly OPS of .595 and a wRC+ of 63, he’s the worst qualified hitter on the team. On one hand, he doesn’t strike out too often (21.2%, 56th percentile) and doesn’t chase (26.8%, 61st percentile) or whiff (21.9%, 69th percentile) much more than the average big leaguer. On the other, his total lack of power is what has been killing him. He performs significantly worse than Monasterio against southpaw pitching (.452 OPS vs. .767), but has some wheels and is (more importantly) a capable defender, posting 12 DRS at second base this year. In an event where the Brewers decide to focus on having lockdown defense at the cost of some offensive production, Turang might get some time in the spotlight. 3B - Brian Anderson Donaldson has performed well against lefties this season (.954 OPS) but looks completely lost against righties (.580). Luckily, Brian Anderson, although seeing little playing time recently, has a slightly better .694 OPS against righties. His role on the team has been in flux all year, but with some versatile pieces and the right matchup, he might be able to add some value to the squad after all--if Counsell will let him out of whatever doghouse he's landed in. Break In Case of Emergency Rowdy Tellez With Santana starting to eat up more time at first base and Donaldson arising as a new competitor at DH, Tellez will get fewer opportunities to salvage what has been quite a disappointing season. Failing to improve upon last year’s 110 wRC+, Rowdy has posted a meager .664 OPS and 77 wRC+ over 341 plate appearances this season. His percentile rankings are actually quite good, especially when it comes to avoiding whiffs and pitches outside of the zone. Unfortunately, his 18th-percentile xwOBA of .299 holds him back from excelling as an offense-oriented first baseman. A lack of other tools has punished him severely as a player this season. Without his ability to create hits, accumulate RBI, and be an effective bat, his fWAR has plummeted to -1.0 for 2023, a tragic deviation from the progress he made in 2022. He might still get some time at DH, but he doesn't offer much improvement over Santana at this point. View full article

With their most dominant win of the season, the Milwaukee Brewers officially punched their ticket to the playoffs for the fifth time in the past six years. Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports It's not the milestone the Brewers are aiming for. They'll wait until their next win (or the next Cubs loss) to line the clubhouse with plastic and don the ski goggles for champagne sprays and beer showers. They want the NL Central crown, and they'll have it. They want the NL pennant, and that will be hard but exhilarating work. On Friday night, though, they took one important step on that path, securing a place in the tournament. How It Went Down In what was supposed to be just another bullpen day for the Miami Marlins, the Brewers had one of the most violent second innings in the history of baseball, scoring 12 runs. After some much-needed rest, Christian Yelich went 3-4 with two home runs, five RBI, and an astounding 10 total bases. Maybe an extended break is exactly what he needed to return to form. On the pitching side of things, Corbin Burnes went five shutout innings and struck out six. Trevor Megill and Andrew Chafin kept the Marlins at zero runs and Bryse Wilson gave up a solo home run to Jon Berti to close the lead to 15 runs. In the ninth inning, closer Rowdy Tellez used his perfect command of the zone to paint corners and pitch a scoreless ninth inning, while recording his first career strikeout as a pitcher. It was the perfect way to sew up their place in the postseason. A dominant display of force over a competitive opponent that may end up being their first round matchup should have fans excited for what’s to come. Like Your Annoying Coworker's Pen, Things Are Clicking It hasn’t been the smoothest season. The Brewers have lost the division lead to both the Pirates and the Reds at least once this year but have managed to reclaim and hold it since August. Part of the struggle was the abysmal hitting in the first half. Before the All-Star break, the team combined for an OPS of just .689, 25th in MLB. Players like Jesse Winker, Luis Urias, and Luke Voit were freezing cold and swinging dead bats. After some roster adjustments, new faces like Mark Canha, Carlos Santana, Sal Frelick, and Josh Donaldson joined the lineup in the second half and began to revive the team at the plate. Furthermore, some players made big strides to improve on their pre-All Star figures. Here are the three biggest upgrades: Pre-ASB OPS Post-ASB OPS William Contreras .773 .875 Tyrone Taylor .419 .867 Blake Perkins .614 .793 To bolster an already formidable starting rotation, Brandon Woodruff returned to pitching full-time and at peak form. Burnes and Freddy Peralta went from 3.94 and 4.70 first-half ERAs to 2.84 and 2.42 ERA figures in the second. Inconsistent bullpen pieces like Matt Bush and Peter Strzelecki were removed to make room for the likes of Abner Uribe and a more refined version of Trevor Megill. What's Next This playoff run will not be an easy one. The Wild Card is full of scrappy teams (aside from the Marlins, I guess), and the Dodgers and the Braves are both monumental challenges in their own right. This team hasn’t always made the perfect move, but the roster has been managed well, making hard decisions when needed and the team is already seeing big returns. Let’s hope for continued dividends through October--and perhaps even into the start of November. View full article

As one of the three teams with 79 wins, the Marlins are competing with the Cubs and the Reds for the last NL Wild Card spot. If they’re successful, they’ll face the Brewers in the first round, so how might that go? Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Brewer Fanatic Starting Pitching The Marlins may have one of the most underrated starting rotations in baseball. Sure, defending NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara has regressed heavily and isn’t nearly as dominant as in 2022, but his compatriots have done an incredible job holding down the fort. Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett have performed admirably, but rookie Eury Perez is the name to watch. He’s posted a 3.15 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 91 ⅓ innings pitched. He’s got an ERA+ of 141, the best of any starter on the team, and has been a major piece of what’s made their rotation so successful and given them a combined ERA of 4.15, ninth in MLB. Furthermore, based on how Alcantara is recovering from his flexor strain, he might still be able to make a start in the postseason and continue his second-half momentum (3.20 ERA over 70 ⅓ innings pitched). What Miami needs to improve in peak performance, they make up for in consistency. The Brewers still have a better-combined starter ERA (3.93) over the season, but compared to the Cubs and especially the Reds, the Marlins have the most comparable frontline pitching staff. The first six innings of each game in the series may create fascinating pitching duels. Relief Pitching Unlike their starters, Miami’s bullpen has been somewhat inconsistent this season, posting a combined 4.23 and 1.34 WHIP. Tanner Scott and Andrew Nardi are the only two qualified pitchers on the team with ERAs below 3.00, and there’s quite the disparity between them and the next few guys. Unfortunately for them, the Brewers bullpen is the best of the best, a stark improvement over whatever the Marlins can offer. The likes of JT Chargois (3.46 ERA), George Soriano (3.54 ERA), and Bryan Hoeing (4.19 ERA) can’t compare to the Hoby Milners and Bryse Wilsons of the world. The Brewers will have a significant pitching advantage in the later innings and should look to do most of their scoring against the weaker part of the Marlins pitching staff. Lineup The Miami Marlins are one of the few playoff teams with a potentially worse offense than the Brewers, albeit by a small margin. Their team OPS of .712 puts them just below Milwaukee’s mark of .721. However, there are still some key bats that may spell trouble if not respected properly. Jake Burger has been one of MLB's best trade deadline moves, similar to the Brewers’ own acquisition of Mark Canha. He’s slashing .308/.364/.521 over 187 plate appearances and has quickly become the team’s most valuable offensive piece. Luis Arraez is no longer chasing the hallowed mark of a .400 batting average, but .354 would still be the highest full-season mark since Josh Hamilton in 2010. Jorge Soler has mashed 36 home runs, and Jesus Sanchez has been consistently above average all year, posting an OPS+ of 113. The Brewers have made big hitting strides after the All-Star break but still have a ways to go. While they lack the same power threat (Willy Adames leads the team in HR with 24), they’ve got slightly more depth and momentum at the plate than the Marlins. Overall Takeaways Of the three teams fighting for the #6 seed, FanGraphs has given the Marlins the best odds at taking the spot at 54.1%. If they face Milwaukee in the first round of the postseason, they’ll be a formidable foe. Still, their lack of a formidable bullpen will likely be their Achilles heel, a weakness the Brewers can exploit to cruise into the NLDS. View full article

Diamondbacks Starters: 4.70 ERA (21st in MLB) Brewers Starters: 3.96 ERA (7th in MLB) Diamondbacks Relievers: 4.33 ERA (20th in MLB) Brewers Relievers: 3.51 ERA (3rd in MLB) Diamondbacks Offense in the First Half: .754 OPS (7th in MLB) Brewers Offense in the First Half: .689 OPS (25th in MLB) Diamondbacks Offense in the Second Half: .715 OPS (18th in MLB) Brewers Offense in the Second Half: .719 OPS (17th in MLB) Looks like momentum sides with us. Pitching continues to remain consistent and the new Brewers bats have, contrary to a lot of people's beliefs, definitely contributed. Mark Canha (132 OPS+) Josh Donaldson (114 OPS+) Sal Frelick (110 OPS+) William Contreras .873 OPS in the second half helps too. Things are trending in the right direction.

The Phillies are one of the scrappiest and hardest-hitting teams in the National League. If they meet the Brewers in the postseason, does Milwaukee have enough to overcome the power of brotherly love? Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Brewer Fanatic The Phillies have a slight but consistent lead over the remainder of the NL Wild Card pack, so they’ll likely start on the other side of the NL bracket. However, if they lose enough games to slide to the sixth seed (currently held by the Cubs) or make it to the NLCS along with the Brewers, we’ll see these two teams face off in a heated contest. Starting Pitching Last year, Philadelphia had a 1-2 punch that rivaled the Brewers’ own. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler were two of the most formidable pitchers in the National League in 2022, but this year has been a step back for both of them--especially for Nola. Going from a 3.25 ERA and Cy Young votes to a 4.62 ERA and strikeout-to-walk ratio that’s half of what it was in 2022, he’s seen a significant decline in performance. The rest of the rotation is slightly better than average, with Cristopher Sanchez leading the squad with a 3.40 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Despite his no-hitter, trade deadline acquisition Michael Lorenzen has a 5.23 ERA over 43 innings pitched with the team. The Brewers have a slightly better starter ERA this year (3.97 vs 4.25), but in a playoff series that would either be best-of-three or best-of-seven, the top of the rotation is what matters most. Because of the fluidity of the rotation in a postseason situation, rotations tend to be more compact. The Brewers' 1-2-3 combination of Corbin Burnes (3.56 ERA), Brandon Woodruff (1.89 ERA), and Freddy Peralta (3.71 ERA) is simply more effective than any three-pitcher combination the Phillies can put together. Relief Pitching The Phillies have some great names in the bullpen. Matt Strahm (3.24 ERA), Jeff Hoffman (2.20 ERA), and closer Craig Kimbrel (3.29 ERA) are tough matchups for most batters. Unfortunately for the Phils (in this hypothetical showdown), when it comes to relief pitching, only two teams have a better staff than the Brewers. With the third-best reliever ERA in MLB 3.51, there are few names in Milwaukee that aren’t considered elite. ERA WHIP Devin Williams 1.59 0.92 Bryse Wilson 2.63 1.08 Joel Payamps 2.42 1.03 Elvis Peguero 3.38 1.22 Hoby Milner 1.91 0.96 Trevor Megill 3.58 1.29 Abner Uribe 1.29 1.07 The outlier is Andrew Chafin, who’s racked up a 7.82 ERA since arriving from Arizona, but with so many other great arms from whom to choose, he’ll likely receive few (if any) innings. Lineup The Brewers have managed to improve their offense to be right around league-average in the second half of the season (.715 OPS, 17th in MLB) but are handily beaten by what the Phillies have managed in the same timeframe (.806 OPS, 4th in MLB). With every qualified player on their roster posting an OPS+ above 100, the Phillies approach to winning is in stark contrast to that of the Brewers: offense first. After all, it doesn’t matter how many runs your opponent scores, so long as you score more. The three biggest threats on the Phillies lineup card are undoubtedly Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner. Despite receiving Tommy John surgery less than a year ago, Harper’s slash line of .290/.394/.490 shows he’s not to be trifled with. Similarly, Schwarber’s constant treading of the Mendoza line has almost obfuscated the fact that he’s socked 45 home runs, nearly tying his NL-leading total of 46 in 2022. Turner started off freezing cold but is posting a .934 OPS after the All-Star break (and receiving an outpouring of love and support from a generally negative fanbase). Milwaukee will need William Contreras to keep up the positive momentum, Mark Canha’s constant contributions, and Christian Yelich at full strength if they want to hold a candle to the hitting abilities of Philadelphia. A resurgence from Willy Adames and Josh Donaldson wouldn’t hurt either. Overall Takeaways There’s a reason the Phillies made it to the World Series last year and are the top Wild Card team this year. They’ve got a rough-and-tumble style, a die-hard fanbase, and their bats pack a wallop. However, their relatively weak pitching may give the Brewers the advantage they need to squeak by with a string of wins, probably by only a few runs. View full article

Good callout. Subtle but important delineation.

Players don’t always perform the same during the regular season and the postseason. The added pressure of elimination can sometimes be overwhelming. Thankfully, the Brewers are fortunate to have several guys that have been able to step up to the plate when the lights are the brightest. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Brewer Fanatic Having suffered the heat of those October spotlights can temper and harden a player, and the Brewers' previous forays into the postseason under Craig Counsell have done some of that firing already. Here are the guys to whom younger players can turn for insight on the experience ahead, and whom Counsell can trust most to know and manage the moment. Corbin Burnes The team's ace has pitched in a total of three playoff series. Coming out of the bullpen in his rookie year, he made two relief appearances against the Rockies in the 2018 NLDS, pitching four shutout innings and giving up just one hit along the way. In the NLCS against the Dodgers, he gave up two earned runs in five innings. 2021 was Burnes’ first year as a playoff starter, pitching six shutout innings against the eventual world champion Braves. Overall, he’s got a pretty stellar 1.20 ERA and 0.67 WHIP, but over just 15 innings. 2021 was also his Cy Young year, and his 2023 has been a step back from that season, but this year’s peaks have been as good as he's been in any season. With his combination of stuff, command, and stamina, look for Burnes to be an integral piece of the Milwaukee playoff run. Brandon Woodruff Having one of the best regular seasons of his career thus far (well, when he's been available, anyway), it can be easy to forget that Woodruff has also made great starts in the postseason. He pitched alongside Burnes in the 2018 NLDS and NLCS, pitching 12 1/3 innings. Most notably, he pitched 9 ⅓ innings against the Dodgers, giving up just three earned runs. Because of Burnes’s struggles in 2019 and his oblique strain late in 2020, Woodruff picked up the slack, and has nearly twice as much as his rotation mate in the playoffs, posting a cumulative 3.18 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over 28 1/3 innings pitched. He’s been nothing short of incredible since returning from the IL, and there doesn’t seem to be any reason for that momentum to stop any time soon. Carlos Santana A veteran clubhouse presence, Santana has put together 120 postseason plate appearances and an OPS of .681 over the course of his lengthy major-league career. While his best years are undoubtedly behind him, he managed to turn back the clock in last year’s AL Wild Card round. Over nine plate appearances with the Mariners, Santana slashed .250/.333/.750 against the Blue Jays and hit a clutch three-run homer when his team was faced with elimination. This kickstarted a momentous rally that saw Seattle overcome a six-run deficit and punch their ticket to the ALDS. Santana has been right about league-average offensively since coming over from Pittsburgh, but given how young this Brewers team is, he’s one of the few players with robust October baseball experience. Both his bat and his leadership will be key tools. Josh Donaldson Okay, hear me out. Since arriving in Milwaukee, fans have seen an immediate uptick in offensive performance over his time in New York. Like Joey Gallo and Aaron Hicks before him, it seems like New York was the problem for Donaldson--or at least part of it. He’s got even more playoff experience than Santana, putting together 203 plate appearances and a slash line of .246/.335/.397 over 12 series played. Sure, his OPS of .732 is inflated by some monstrous runs with the Blue Jays in his younger years, but who’s to say there isn’t still some of the old “Bringer of Rain” somewhere in there? Furthermore, while he’s not remotely qualified given the amount of time missed to injury, his limited Savant data shows that he’s still hitting the ball hard and walking at an exceptional rate. Don’t expect him to put the entire team on his back, but his experience and intensity might be enough to push the Brewers over the edge. That's not a comprehensive list of the players on the roster who have experience in the postseason, but these four guys have played there the most and the best. They're the ones to whom Sal Frelick or Abner Uribe can turn for advice on the different dynamics of high-stakes baseball. After that, it's up to everyone to perform for themselves, and to write their own heroic October legacies. View full article

I think it depends on how you look at it. I went off of FanGraphs, which gives the Braves and Dodgers both 100.0% chances to clinch byes. That being said, I guess it is mathematically possible for things to end up another way.

Since the Brewers have just about clinched a spot in the playoffs and are a clear favorite to win their division, it’s time to start looking at who they might face in the postseason. Will they make a deep run or a tragically early exit? Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Brewer Fanatic The Current State of Things After an unfortunate (or fortunate, depending on who you ask) five-game losing streak, the Cubs skidded to 6.5 games behind in the NL Central. More importantly, they are back to being neck-and-neck with the Reds. As of now, here are the division standings. While the Brewers’ neighbors have floundered in recent weeks, the other NL Wild Card contenders have pulled ahead, namely the Marlins who just completed a dominating sweep over the Braves this past weekend. As a result, here is what the playoff bracket would look like if the postseason started immediately. Outlook On The Remainder of the Season The Cubs, Marlins, and Reds all have 78 wins while the Diamondbacks have 79, so to say that things are quite close would be an understatement. Heck, the Phillies is only two games ahead of the pack at 81 and the Giants are only two games behind at 76, so we might see some additional shuffling in the next few weeks. One thing that’s almost certain is the Brewers ending up as the #3 seed. The Braves and Dodgers have clinched the #1 and #2 seeds respectively and unless you think the Cubs will capitalize on their 1.2% chance to take the top spot in the NL Central, the Brewers will stay where they are now. That means facing the #6 seed, which according to FanGraphs, is likely going to be the Marlins or the Cubs. Potential Playoff Matchups Milwaukee has a small sample size of just four games against Miami but went 3-1 against them this season. Despite making trades for bats like Josh Bell and Jake Burger at the deadline, the Marlins are posting average offensive numbers (.716 team OPS, 17th in MLB) in the second half. This bodes well for the Brewers, whose pitching seems to have a big advantage over the Miami lineup. Given the three-game setup of the Wild Card round, a quick 1-2 punch of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff paired with any of the devastating arms in the bullpen should make for quick work. The Cubs have been a steeper challenge this year and got hot in July and August, going 33-20. Despite regressing in September, standouts like Justin Steele and Cody Bellinger continue to exceed expectations across the board. Furthermore, they have one of the best defensive infields in baseball. Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson alone combine for 35 OAA and Nick Madrigal's figure of 9 OAA isn't too shabby either. Given the Brewers already weak offense, a three-game series with the Cubs might more of a toss-up. The NLDS is where things start to get a little scary. Going 1-5 against the Dodgers this season, the Brewers' only hope will be a heavily depleted Los Angeles starting rotation. Other than Clayton Kershaw (who is great in the playoffs as we all know), the Dodgers' hopes rest on a handful of young pitchers, Ryan Yarbrough, and Lance Lynn. If Milwaukee is unable to do damage in the early innings, they'll struggle even more with the Dodgers' fourth-best bullpen in baseball (3.57 team ERA). Given the chaos of baseball, it would be conjecture to try and project an NLCS and/or World Series opponent, but one thing is for sure - the Brewers present a real challenge to any team and should not be taken lightly. Hopefully their on-field performance matches up with what they're capable of on paper. View full article

Through 144 games, the Brewers have had one constant: their rotation. Despite some rough starts and long-term injuries, their starting pitchers continue to impress. The team’s last three starts prove that the top of their rotation is reaching peak form just in time for the final stage of their postseason push. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Burnes Flirts With A No-No In perhaps his best performance this season, Corbin Burnes tossed eight no-hit innings against the New York Yankees. While the Brewers ultimately lost in 13 innings, his individual performance still managed to stand out, as he amassed seven strikeouts and 16 swings and misses. He singlehandedly added 55.9% win probability. If his pitch count was a smidge lower than 109 and the Brewers were able to put up any semblance of run support, he may have thrown his first individual no-hitter (he and Josh Hader combined for a no-hitter in September 2021). This was a great way to bounce back from a pair of mediocre performances that saw him give up 10 earned runs in 12 total innings against the Minnesota Twins and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite his inconsistencies, Burnes has proven that he can still perform at the highest level, and his postseason experience (albeit a small sample of just 15 innings) goes to show that he can dial up the heat when it really counts. Woodruff Goes All The Way Despite having been back on the team for just over a month, Brandon Woodruff has made his presence felt as one of the best starting pitchers in the sport. Across 56 innings pitched, he’s currently at a 1.93 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP. Can you imagine what things would’ve been like if he had been healthy all year? Well, he gave us a glimpse by pitching a complete-game shutout against the Miami Marlins, striking out seven along the way. The outing extended his scoreless streak to an eye-popping 21 innings. For having recently recovered from a sub-scapular strain that saw him miss four months, there’s not much more people can ask of him. His velocity, stuff, and stamina are all back to pre-injury levels. At this point in the season, he’s probably the toughest guy to face for six innings on the entire Milwaukee pitching staff. It’s Time To Fear Freddy Freddy Peralta followed up on Woodruff’s performance against the Marlins in a big way, striking out nine and giving up just one hit in 6 ⅓ innings. The All-Star break did wonders for him, as he went from posting a 4.70 ERA in 92 innings in the first half to a 2.62 ERA over 58 ⅓ innings so far in the second half. He struggled with giving up too much hard contact earlier in the season but seems to have drastically improved his ability to place and finish pitches. This allows him to attack the zone more consistently, explaining the high strikeout numbers, while reducing overall damage. While he might not be as big of a name as the 1-2 punch of Burnes and Woodruff, those who have had the privilege of watching his starts either as supporters or opponents have officially been put on notice. Come October, teams who sleep on Peralta might end up regretting it on their flights home to start their offseasons. View full article

FanGraphs pegs the two as having pretty comparable strengths of schedule and projects the Brewers to end with a small lead over the Cubs, similar to the lead they've had thus far. I hope you're wrong but given the chaos of baseball, who knows what will happen over these two weeks?

After a steaming-hot July that saw him post a 1.015 OPS, Christian Yelich cooled off immensely in August, regressing to a .676 OPS. With his downward trend continuing, there are a few good reasons why he should rest for a few weeks. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports We all know how good a healthy Christian Yelich is. This summer was a forcible reminder that that talent is still there. Alas, the summer is over. Yelich’s Performance Has Slipped, Significantly After playing the first game of the series against the New York Yankees, Yelich was benched due to lower back soreness, a move that may have been a few days (or weeks) too late. Since the start of September, Yelich has slashed just .125/.241/.167 over 29 plate appearances, a far cry from his midsummer renaissance. Yelich has been a workhorse for the Brewers for the past two seasons and for most of his career, but after fracturing his knee in 2019 and repeatedly aggravating a back issue that started in 2015, it’s more likely that his deteriorating performance is a result of injuries than anything else. Furthermore, given that he was scratched from the lineup for soreness in an an area he’s had issues with in the past, it would be a prudent move to rest him before it gets any worse. At his best, Yelich is one of the best outfielders in baseball. At his worst, he’s a liability in the lineup. History has shown us that he’s usually at his worst when he’s battling physical limitations, so maybe an extended break will help restore him to full strength. The Brewers Don’t Really Need Him In Yelich’s worst full month of the season, the Brewers had their best month since April, going 17-9 in August. The team’s offense was average, posting a .708 OPS, but the pitching was lights out. With Freddy Peralta having his best month and bullpen names like Abner Uribe, Hoby Milner, and Trevor Megill rising to the occasion, Milwaukee had a 3.36 ERA in August, third best in MLB. All year, the Brewers have made it clear that they win games through pitching and scoring barely enough runs to squeak by with the win. At 631 runs scored, they are 18th in MLB and have scored the fewest of any division-leading team (the Minnesota Twins are next, with 664). It also helps that his replacement, Tyrone Taylor, slashed .271/.339/.542 in August and has an OPS .260 points higher than Yelich’s in the limited sample size of September. Milwaukee doesn’t have the biggest lead over the Chicago Cubs, but given their relatively similar strength of schedule, FanGraphs is still giving the Brewers an 80.4% chance to win the division. Thus, benching a freezing-cold and battered Yelich accomplishes two goals. It gives the Brewers a stronger lineup to finish the regular season so they can secure their spot as the third seed, while getting Yelich ready to perform in the postseason. Something like a 10-day IL stint would likely pay dividends for the team, allowing him to heal without getting too rusty when the games start to really matter. It’s never easy to bench a player, especially when he’s the face of your organization (not to mention its highest-paid player, by a margin of $15 million a year), but managing a baseball team is all about making hard decisions. The Brewers are fortunate enough to have the outfield depth and standings position to cruise into October baseball, but if they keep letting Yelich limp out there, even that might change. View full article

i wish. In all seriousness, this is good feedback! Will try to be more concise in the future.

While they’ve been playing good baseball all season, the Brewers have never enjoyed a significant lead over the rest of the NL Central. Thus, there’s a chance of a tiebreaker heading into the postseason. How would that look? Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports Throughout the year, the Brewers have had to fight off every team in the division except the St. Louis Cardinals to retain their top spot. The Pittsburgh Pirates seized the top spot in May before going on a tragic skid out of playoff contention in June. The Cincinnati Reds were the next title contenders, after calling up Elly De La Cruz and riding some impressive momentum in July, but the Brewers pulled through and have been at the top of the division since early August, but not by much. The Looming Cubs Threat After going 18-9 in August, the Cubs made up for lost time to pull into second place, timing their surge with the decline of the Reds. Although they're currently three games behind, what would happen if Chicago manages to end up with the same number of wins as the Brewers? Luckily, MLB has a five-step system to break ties. In the event that two teams are tied for the division lead, the team that beats the other more often will be declared the champion. Interestingly, the Brewers and Cubs could not be closer head-to-head, with each team winning five of the 10 total games played so far this season. As we all well know by now, they will face each other three more times in the last series of the season. Whichever team wins that series will claim the tiebreaker between the two, in the process. What makes this matchup even more intriguing is how well the Cubs have been performing in the second half of the season, posting a .787 team OPS (7th in MLB) and a 4.12 team ERA (9th in MLB). In comparison, the Brewers pose a paltry offensive threat, posting a .702 OPS (26th in MLB) after the break and largely depending on their pitching to get them through tough matchups. The fate of the NL Central depends on whether the Brewers can bank enough of a lead for this series to be inconsequential, or else take care of business at home to close things out. What About The Wild Card? Since the Cubs are currently one of the teams taking a Wild Card spot, the two other teams where a tiebreaker might come into play to affect seeding would be the Philadelphia Phillies and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Currently one game behind the Crew in the theoretical Wild Card table, the Phillies have bounced back from a rough spring to be the top actual NL Wild Card club. Unfortunately for them, the Brewers went 4-2 in games against Philadelphia, so if they do end up with the same number of wins, the Brewers will take the top Wild Card spot and host the second Wild Card team (presumably, the Phillies themselves) in the first round of the postseason. Not far behind are the Arizona Diamondbacks, who currently have 74 wins. If they manage to make up the difference, the Brewers would lose the tiebreaker, since they went 2-4 in matchups against them this season. After a lukewarm July and August that saw them combine for 20-31, they’re riding a downward trend and it’s unlikely they’ll manage to end up with the same number of wins as Milwaukee. On the other hand, they have taken the first two of seven games against the Cubs here in September, and are tightening the entire Wild Card picture. Should the Cubs, Brewers and Phillies (or Diamondbacks, or both) all collide at the same final wins total, by the way, the division title would be resolved first. That just reinforces the importance of winning the division, and particularly of that final series at American Family Field. If the Brewers win that series, they'll be in excellent shape. That said, while there won't be a web of potential extra games to navigate, things could still get plenty chaotic if the Crew leave the door open with their play over the final three weeks. View full article