BrewerFan
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Everything posted by BrewerFan
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There needs to be a Madden "BOOM," Gif...I love how Walker plays with an edge like that. And it's hilarious to watch the OL like "dude..." It's criminal he's not utilized better. He's got a chance to be an AP.
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Wild Card Game: Packers @ Cowboys - Sunday, Jan 14 3:30pm
BrewerFan replied to homer's topic in Other Sports
It's 75% on how well your QB plays perhaps, but not 75% on your QB. Those two teams could play and Purdy could VERY easily outplay Love and it'd likely be due to the 49ers DL and LBers. Obviously, QBs are important, that's not news to anyone, but I also think the 49ers have shown you how you don't need that top 3-5 QB. How you can make a good QB look better with the right talent around him. It's actually scary to think what they'd look like had they not traded up for Lance. They traded the pick that ended up becoming Micah Parsons+ 2 more 1sts and IIRC a 3rd reaching for that star QB. Probably. That's just a stacked team that's playing like really well and is just a couple of years ahead of the Packers. We're on the right path though. Just keep building and I don't think we're far off, but this is a complete team in SF. But things happen. I certainly didn't think 2010 was the best chance to win with all the injuries...so we've got a puncher's chance. And maybe Barry comes up with one of his rare schemes that actually works(that may be a bit too optimistic). -
It's not like we had 5 guys who were go-to guys early in the season. Plus, when he's clearly the guy and he goes into SF and gets 20 targets and has 15 catches for 150 yards and 8 first downs, it's pretty clear it's not JUST because he's the only guy. Tutu Atwell was also productive early on(a little more gadget guy who was a 2nd rd pick a couple years ago). But I think the way he performed, he's clearly pretty legit. I think it's likely he'd have had a huge year had the Packers taken him. Maybe not the season he had in LA, but 1000 yards and 80 catches? He's just a guy that went under the radar, but I think he's a stud and it's more due to his ability than circumstances. It's alright though. I love the guys we've got. 3rd down and Wicks is real nice receiver in the 5th rd.
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24 picks the last two years PLUS more than a couple UDFAs who've made the roster...the number of contributors is incredible. I think this next year we'll see them make a lot of selections with the 3 supplemental picks, but they may be more aggressive. Move up for players they want rather than moving down. It'll be interesting to see how they approach this draft, this off-season.
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Wild Card Game: Packers @ Cowboys - Sunday, Jan 14 3:30pm
BrewerFan replied to homer's topic in Other Sports
Good question. Only 20 QBs on there...288 plays isn't a particularly high threshold over 10 weeks of FB(depending on when a team has a buy). Must be an oversight, but I'd like to see where he fits. The whole EPA though...what are your expected yards added, even if you hit a guy on a 50 yard deep ball, but he's wide open? SF schemes guys open so well, it's impossible to tell. -
When you consider where they were drafted, Valentine is a Grand Slam. A cover corner like him in the 7th? It's all relative, and maybe we should temper our excitement given how good Stokes looked as a rookie, but Valentine has that edge to him...and he's athletic. I don't get how he fell to the 7th rd. Musgrave was the 42nd pick, so you expect him to be a really good TE. I'm not sure how he's going to hold up playing the way he does, but if he can, he's going to be a huge threat and it'll open up the Packers playbook. So many options when you have a TE as fluid as Musgrave and then another like Kraft who's more physical. They're nearly identical in terms of their RAS scores, but it shows up in a much different manner. Kraft is more of a hammer and Musgrave is more of an elusive down-the-seem type TE. I'd say the last TWO drafts have been great though. Walker-He's a budding Superstar IMO. Just get a DC who'll let him loose a bit. Wyatt-He's been breaking out. Watson-Just a healthy hamstring from putting up a monster season. Rhyan-Still a ?? Doubs-At the least a very nice complimentary WRer. Tom-Franchise OT...you happily spend a top 10 pick to get a guy who's played like Tom has. The most unsung hero on this team. Engagbare-He's a damn good rotational Edge. Walker-Again, as a 7th rd pick, you can't ask for more. I think he'll have a long career. I do think we need to upgrade the LT position, but a nice player to rotate or kick inside to Guard. Also picked up Melton last year. That looks like a great signing from the Seahawks PS(or he may have even been dropped and the Packers signed him off the PS). Luke Tenuta, Caleb Jones, both suffered injuries, but both have potential. Ford is probably a guy who's replaced, Carpenter was a bust, Toure looks like a miss. But you got 6 guys who've started and 2-3 more really nice rotational pieces and THEN come back with a better draft this year? That's huge. Come back with this class? -Future starting OLB -2 REALLY good looking starting TEs. -2 good WRers who have had significant impacts on the team. -2 DL who've hit been really good rotational players. -Clifford looks like the real deal as a backup QB(not a small thing). -K...Carlson has missed some PATs, but for a rookie? -Valentine, already proving he can be a starting boundary CB. Declining the option on Stokes was probably an easy call, but he's helped the CB position from not dropping off. -Johnson has been a nice backup Safety. -UDFA/Waiver Wire Rookies -Malik Heath looks like another hit in that regard. -Emanuel Wilson is a guy I still believe can be a legit #2 option next year taking over for Dillon -Wheelan...he's been alright. -Ben Sims has come in and done a nice job as a blocking TE **Grant Dubose was a guy who came in and was a big, strong WR, with big hands. Wouldn't write him off yet, but an uphill battle. You add all that when you're losing a WHOLE lot of vets and MOST importantly, you know you have your answer at QB in Love, you have 5 picks in the top ~90 AND your salary cap is going to be clean after this season? We've also got the luxury of not having any absolute MUST-have positions...though I'd still say the OL and OT are the priority, then safety, then it's just depth. Guteknust should be executive of the year. Just getting out of the Rodgers deal and Love panning out, but then all of this? He won't win, but he absolutely should.
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LOL...every once in a while. I think they could go and sign Baker or Winfield without breaking the bank and they each bring just a ton of leadership and playmaking ability to the secondary. Maybe one gets 5 years and 75M, but I think that'd be a good, worthwhile investment. Of course, they'd have to want to play here and AZ has a pretty bright future, but Budda went to Washington, he's a stud and he is one of the tough guys in the league. He's also coming off probably his worst year, so that may dull the interst in him. Other options could be cheaper, but depending on what we do at DC, may also be good fits. A lot of big, physical options beyond those two. Jeremy Chinn could be a nice SS with the players around him. I'm also just excited to see what a new DC can do with Quay Walker, but that's another topic. He's faster than DD, but he's playing so physical and tough. That's where I see the Driver. Driver was a smaller WRer who played physically. I'm not saying he's Driver, but the last couple weeks...I thought he played a lot like he did. The fighting for extra yards after the catch or just going up, finding the soft spot in the zone, and absorbing the hit, but coming down with the ball. Again, I wanted him two years ago(when the 7th rd came around, I wasn't clamoring him before the draft), but I really pictured more of a one-trick pony. Maybe he'll end up a flash in the pan, but he's doing what the Packers' FO and everyone made it sound like Toure would do. I wouldn't mind seeing him used in some jet sweep action or WRer screens this week.
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Wild Card Game: Packers @ Cowboys - Sunday, Jan 14 3:30pm
BrewerFan replied to homer's topic in Other Sports
This...Love has proven he's the guy and we've got a pretty secure future there. I also think Clifford is a really good young backup. Now it's just continuing to build around them and building the culture. -
Wild Card Game: Packers @ Cowboys - Sunday, Jan 14 3:30pm
BrewerFan replied to homer's topic in Other Sports
Yeah, that's not encouraging given we had 7 picks all year. Rasul Douglas had 4 picks with the Bills. Man, what a night and day difference from when we traded him. Did anyone even blink at that? Think "Why the hell are we trading away our big-play threat on defense," at the time? I didn't think it was crazy in the least. I don't think this game is as out of reach as others do. The Cowboys won't have Tyler Smith...he's a budding superstar on the OL. Zach Martin, a HOF is questionable. I'd assume he plays. Tyron Smith is healthy, but I don't mind our matchup there. Parson's lines up on the left side of that defense most of the time...so Parsons vs Tom is a pretty good matchup(insofar as anyone matches up well vs Parsons). Ultimately though, this is kinda like that Packers-Cardinals game. I don't expect 90+ points to be scored, but that season showed us Rodgers was the guy without any doubt, he played well in the playoffs and we got invaluable experience. We're playing with house money. 7th seed, probably not a playoff team most years, almost ALL 1st and 2nd-year players on offense. Guys like Bo Melton are balling out. What the hell...maybe we pull it out. And if not, we go into the off-season with a clear idea of what we need to address. -
Boom...mic DROP... Love Rating- 96.1 4159 yards 32 TD/11 INT(and 4 rushing TDs). I'll just ignore the Savage predictions...though...
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Melton looked SOO much like a young Donald Driver yesterday... Wicks is bigger and more physical. I'd say he's more similar to Davante with his route running, not having elite speed, but being able to get open, being so good at the point. Obviously many levels below Adams, but more similarities there than Melton IMO. Melton has that elite speed. I was screaming for them to pick him when they took Carpenter in the draft two years ago...just had no clue he was a complete receiver. I just thought 7th round, he could be a deep threat, but nothing like this.
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Well, he's not accounting for the carry over...so the Packers are ~32M under the cap just by cutting Bakh. They'll likely be close to 40M under with a couple of other roster moves. Jones will very likely be asked to take a pay-cut. I'd guess he'll go from 11M base to 6M. But they can get to 40M fairly easily...but the BIG thing is the following year, all the bad deals are off the cap. That, the fact that they can easily manipulate the first year of a deal for a guy like Baker and make the cap hit the first year low, they should easily be able to sign anyone they really want this year. Add to that safeties are generally not among the highest paid positions and if they want to, they won't have much trouble. I think @CheezWizHedsuggested WAY earlier this year when they added void years to Nijman's deal...which I thought to be odd at the time as it'd mean they wouldn't get a supplemental pick for him, that he thought it was because they planned to be active in the FA market. I think that makes even more sense given how the season has gone on. Baker, Winfield...Dugger, a Safety like that, then you can always add a guy in the draft. Or maybe you go another route and you sign Connor Williams, a REALLY good Center from Miami. That's what I've been advocating for, but Josh Myers has really played...pretty damn well as of late.
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It's just wild. We went...~8 weeks of actual season play without KNOWING we had our QB of the future... The Bears have gone since, what, World War 2😂 But even as a guy who had confidence in Love...I did not think he'd explode the way he did this second half. And he still made some errors and didn't have his big-play threat in Watson...didn't have a run game most of the year...he's just gotten it done. Over and over and over! Absolutely incredible! -Barry still needs to be fired -Packers still do need to improve that OL despite the improved play(I suspect that will be exposed a bit in the playoffs). But they can go after a tackle and move up if they want, they can sit back and pick the BPA, use a pick on a guy like Bucky Irvin or Malachi Corley, Troy Franklin, Jahiem Bell, whoever...just luxury picks to really make this offense dangerous. AND while they're not going to have a ton of cap space available this year(should be ~40M by the time they're done restructuring and cutting the more obvious candidates)...after 2024, they'll be completely clear of the "cap hell," they were in after their spending spree came one year before covid causing the cap to be what, 30+M less than expected. He turned this team from an aging team trying to make one last run, ie, the "Last Dance," crew...to the YOUNGEST offense since the NFL merger, an offense that really should only improve with experience. Now we're in the playoffs with all the bloated deals off the books or coming off the books. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers aggressive in Free Agency and the draft, but whatever we do, I suspect the doubt that people have had regarding Gutey...they've been dispelled!
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He's been exceptional. Tom was a GREAT pick. Not sure if Walker should be the future LT(actually I am, but I think he's still a great pick). Rhyan was a 3rd, but...we're in a great spot and we've got a lot of draft capital as you say.
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C'mon...he was an AMAZING coach. He's been a terrible GM, but...HC? Or just coach in general. The SBs with the Giants, his run with the Pats...that's not all Brady. 9 Super Bowls. He's been a poor talent evaluator as the GM and that's been his downfall, but there's no way you can doubt his coaching. Brady was a game manager for a few of those. His defenses were always among the best and played even better in the biggest spots...he puts players in the best possible positions. Belicheck is one of the best coaches ever.
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Orioles attempt at burnes
BrewerFan replied to Scooterfletcher's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I didn't say Misiorowski doesn't fit 'my' projection as a TOR-type arm, he clearly does. I'm saying he's the only one and there's a lot of risk associated with him, his delivery. That, and he's the only pitcher in our system who projects to be a true ace- IF everything clicks for him. But again, he's got 73IP and he's still raw. That doesn't mean he doesn't have TOR-type talent, it means you're banking on a lot to try and put together an elite starting rotation. Ultimately, I would just prefer we target talented arms with big velo, spin rates and let the Brewers work with them. It doesn't have to be a guy like Painter, I trust the Brewers to find guys who fit their criteria and make the right move. I would be happy if we got Mayo and a couple of prospects. I'd just be happier if we got a couple of pitchers who have high upsides(even if they may be a bit further away). -
Game 16: Packers @ Vikings - Sunday, Dec. 31st 7:20 PM
BrewerFan replied to HarryDoyle's topic in Other Sports
That's kinda what the Packers moved away from when they had Ed Donatell and Bob Sanders and a few others maybe inbetween. And they got that. Played a lot of softer coverage, used their DEs to get pressure(Kampman and KGB, others around then like Holliday and whoever else) and they lived on turnovers. The 34 was in part because Capers was available. A former HC with a great record as a defensive coach...and it was more aggressive. And that worked with the CBs we had. Woodson, Harris, Williams, Shields, etc... That's the type of hire I'm talking about though. A coach who can take some off MLF's plate and someone who has the respect of the players. Really would like to see Florres if we don't get our first pick in Leonhard. Pro-Bowlers? Clark or Gary would work. Tom has been REALLY good. Love is worthy(again, so much voting was done this year earlier in the season before Love looked this good, so I get that. Playoffs, Pro Bowl, this season has been all about Love...and a resounding success as far as that goes. -
McCarthy from Michigan looks like he could be a really nice NFL QB, but Minnesota needs to tear it down and rebuild. Use Jefferson to pick up 2 1sts and start from there. I'd keep the OTs in place, but otherwise, gut it. I'm hoping the Packers actually trade up in this draft. If they find a Safety in FA, they have relatively few needs outside the OL. I don't think it'll happen, but if Alt is there at 8-10? It'd be worth it. "Saleh's defense." Man, that'd be incredible. Maybe Arod will want his buddy Getsy back with Hackett running the show! Hell, lets just do them a favor. We'll swap 1sts and they get Bakh(and he'll play another 4 healthy years in NY on the turf).
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That's a little wild. I do not remember it like that. I remember a great 1st start and then I thought he flirted with a no-hitter, a CG, but I would have guessed his ERA would have been well over 4 and that he had ~50IP. I was a big Coulter fan. I knew it was an uphill climb for him, but I thought he had a lot of upside. @reillymcshanegreat trip down memory lane...
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Williams and Maye do seem like they're on another level...and I think the Bears can get more for this 1st than last year. Bryce Young and CJ Stroud were not the prospects these two QBs are. What may mitigate the compensation is if they "only" drop-down to ~3-5 range and they can still take a guy like MJH, Alt or Fashanu, a franchise LT. I hope they stick with Fields and pay him...but it seems unlikely. I think the top of this draft is going to be multiple All-Pro's and HOF-type talents. The Bears have missed at QB regularly, but it was a smart decision by them and AZ to move down last year and end up with multiple 1sts this year.
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MLB revenue disparity and its impact on competition
BrewerFan replied to Playing Catch's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
You're right, salary cap or not, they won't charge less for tickets. The issue is the Brewers do not and cannot generate NEARLY the same revenue as teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, etc...just as the Packers can't generate as much as the same markets in the NFL. Nothing WILL change, but it's hard for me to understand the argument that revenue sharing hasn't helped the NFL when...we saw it implemented, Baseball was the most popular sport(by a large margin) and the NFL has caught and then surged well past Baseball. And it's allowed the small market teams to be competitive and prohibited the large market teams from just buying the best players. -
MLB revenue disparity and its impact on competition
BrewerFan replied to Playing Catch's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
There was Fantasy Baseball well before Fantasy Football, same with Gambling. The sports being "boring," is subjective. It WAS objectively the most popular sport. Soccer is "boring" by these standards. It's the most popular sport in the world. I'm not sure why having your ace or the #1 seed losing(which happens in Football as well) would in any way be a knock against the sport, but ok. Well, I don't think that's true at all, but tell me how "balanced," it'd be if Dallas, New York and the large markets didn't share revenue? They'd just wait 4 or 5 years JUST like MLB and Aaron Rodgers would end up in Dallas or New York(in their prime, not as a FA). Same with every other team. The parity is a byproduct of revenue sharing, not who currently has a good QB. No revenue sharing, the QBs would all be in 4-5 markets. GB likely wouldn't have a team. That's a bizarre take. Like the issue of revenue sharing hadn't been broached until Ohtani signed? This is all about getting Ohtani to Milwaukee? It was an enormous part of Bud Selig's tenure as Commish...though there was only so much he could do. -
That is a huge cost. I worked at an Insurance company after Grad school and it was soul-sucking and they were...pretty shady, but the long-term care and short-term care are really important. You can easily go through your retirement or what you were going to leave your kids OR worse yet, end up in a poorly run retirement home.
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MLB revenue disparity and its impact on competition
BrewerFan replied to Playing Catch's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Strongly disagree as the NFL's revenue sharing in the 1960's is one of the MAIN reasons cited for why the NFL become such a popular product. It's not comparing "fruit baskets to vegetable gardens," it's comparing two professional sports leagues that each have a monopoly. One went with revenue sharing and its popularity exploded. The other did not and its popularity has waned. There are...dozens of articles that attribute MLB's revenue sharing directly to its popularity. https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=2781759 https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1574285-how-the-nfl-became-the-most-competitive-league-in-all-of-sports It's not comparing two totally unique entities, it's as close to a 1 for 1 comparison as you can get. -
MLB revenue disparity and its impact on competition
BrewerFan replied to Playing Catch's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
No, not more than Football. Again, all this is ignoring that MLB was king, they generated the most revenue. Then you had them collectively bargain their TV contracts. Now, every team has more than enough to cover the salary cap from one check on one day at the start of the league year before selling a ticket, a beer, a hot dog, anything else. https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2023/09/08/the-worlds-50-most-valuable-sports-teams-2023/?sh=1e034f9f2b44 https://www.wusa9.com/article/sports/washington-commanders-value-goes-up-in-2022-forbes-says/65-fc37925c-8014-4946-812b-c3ff590444f4#:~:text=The magazine just released its NFL team valuation,a 33% increase in value from last year. If we're talking about generating revenue, popularity absolutely equates to the quality of the product. And the NFL wasn't more popular than MLB. That's the point. It's become more popular. I'd rather own a team that's guaranteed to make money, be competitive, and is worth ~3X more than NFL teams are as compared to MLB teams. The average NFL team is worth ~4.5B. As the article above shows, even aggressive evaluations are below market value. An 111 BILLION dollar TV deal...not including the other 2-3 billion they earn for the red zone package. Give me the team that gets that divided up. Dude...MLB teams play on Saturday's, Sunday's, they play all the time when people are off work. They play roughly 10X the games. Ok...happy with their investment is vague. I thought this was about if it was 1-Good for the sport and 2-If MLB was maximizing it's revenue. We see all the Bally Sports going bankrupt and many teams have no idea what they're going to do in the future. Contrast that with the NFL and the large market owners who sacrificed a little and ended up with a MUCH bigger product(again, blowing past MLB, the National Pastime as a result). This is really simple. From which list would you rather own a team? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbes_list_of_the_most_valuable_NFL_teams https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbes_list_of_the_most_valuable_MLB_clubs

