BrewerFan

Yes! In the outside zone scheme, you have landmarks. On the "wide zone," which is basically the entire core of our offense, it's what everything is predicated off, you're "landmark," is about 1 yard outside the OT and 1 yard behind the OT. So you're running at that angle, the OL is blocking their zone(more difficult than a more simple, power iso scheme for the OL, but better) and you look for the cutback. Or ideally you get outside, but good teams set the edge. Dillon did that fine. Put a foot in the ground or a little jump cut and then got his shoulders square and got moving North and South and hit that hole hard. That was in limited action as a rookie and in his 2nd year. The last two...just sticking with that one play for example, he's just running into his OT or if there's a TE who's blocking down, he's running into that pile and he doesn't have the feet to make people miss in a phone booth. He's got no patience so he's not seeing the hole and he has never had quick enough feet to be that elusive type of back like Jones. So what are you left with? Not even John Kuhn. Kuhn was just punishing in his limited snaps.

Eh, you're just picturing track guys. Think about most RBs or DBs. 5-10, 204 is normal. Speed comes in lots of sizes other than fat. What's Trout? 6'1 240? He's thick and a burner. But I think his stealing bags is mostly the result of his good base running.

Ahhh...ok. Now that makes more sense. I was curious why he wasn't listed on MLB Trade Rumors projected arbitration salaries...but he was just a flat out FA. Ok, that changes things and makes sense. In any event, good to have him back.

Yes...if he were a FA, I'd agree. But he wasn't. Year 1 of arbitration. I'm not complaining, I'm just saying that's more than I thought. It's also 4.5M GTD if the 5.5M option isn't picked up.

He was in his first year of arbitration. How much do you think a 33-year-old pitcher who just had his career year...-with a 4.55 ERA -is worth?

Huh...that seems a bit steep for a guy going into his first year of arbitration at 33 with a negative war coming into this season.

I like your write-ups Clancy...you view some prospects a bit...differently putting more stock in MiLB stats than tools, kinda flipped from conventional wisdom, and I know you catch a little flak for it-especially when you have some Loogy as the #1 prospect-but whatever. The only thing...I've seen you put guys like Dorrian into both 2B and 3B, so why not...Baez, Boeve for example, or even Pratt? These are players who are at least potential 3B. Feels like you're missing quite a few guys who probably end up(or at least possibly if they develop) at 3B.

I haven't got the first clue... 4.90 FIP, propped up a bit by our D(but every starter was). Solid K rate, lower WHIP. 5M a year seems like a reasonable number for a guy who threw ~120 IP as a #4-5 pitcher, but his first year in arbitration, I'd say 2M and then a TO for 4.5 with a very minimal buyout(the 250K). So just south of what you said. He guarantees he makes a couple of million as a 33-year-old pitcher with a -.5 WAR coming into last season. Feels like this has to be team-friendly to get this done this early.

Let's just think about this for a second. We're going to trade Burnes, for a package built around a 24-year-old SS who is coming off a .712 OPS and at age 23...posted a .547 OPS and a .7 WAR(edit) and we're going to play him at 2B to replace our 23-year-old SS who posted a....585 OPS and a 1.6 WAR as a rookie? That's +.6 WAR from what rookie Turang produced for Corbin Burnes...? I'd roll the dice, hope that these other hitters coming up can produce and Turang can grow and develop into, if not a impact player, a nice complimentary player. I do believe Turang has the place discipline and bat-to-ball skills to be at least as good as '24 Perdomo. Edit-Perdomo actually put up a .7 WAR last year when he was 23 and a 2.2 WAR this year, his 3rd in the league vs Turang's 1.6 WAR.

Note to self; Scroll down so you can see two others have made the exact same point in a much more succinct manner idiot😁

Yeah, again, it's not a good example. Singleton wasn't a top 50 prospect. Find comparable talents to Chourio, then tell me which of THOSE players have failed. That'd be a more compelling case...because I'm struggling to see it. Bryan Buxton would be closer, but still not that guy(he was ranked that highly though). Using his stats in AA and AAA vs Hiura? Even at the MLB level. He was 18-19. Players who have done that are in a VERY rare group and Jon Singleton or Keston Hiura are not in that group. Hiura was a HS Sr/College freshman. Singleton was a 1B-only, limited athlete who at 21 was putting up a sub .700 OPS in the MiLB. I'd think the Nats would have loved to have locked up Soto before or very shortly after he was promoted. I think the bottom end of what Chourio will be is an elite OFer defensively who hits for power even if there's swing and miss. So a .250/.320/.520 type hitter who can play elite defense, the upside is...Acuna Jr. Though the Braves DID sign Acuna Jr after a ROY season, and we've seen elite prospects bust, so I get the trepidation and I see why you hold your opinion. I just think some guys, a very rare few are different and you see it before they play in the Big Leagues. If we had Jackson Holliday, I'd be arguing for the same thing. An elite SS such as him... Again, I suspect the Brewers will choose to go your route.

Right...I get what you're saying. Prospects crash. But there's a difference between Gomez, a top ~50 prospect(actually, never quite top 50) and even a Frelick/Hiura who were top ~25 vs a #1/2 type. I'd say in terms of prospect status this is more like when Trout, Harper and Matt Moore were 1-2-3 in varying orders. I mean, it's not like we're saying give this monster deal to Frelick, Quero(who I think is actually a bit underrated), Misiorowski... What Chourio has done at the high levels at the age he's at, PLUS his defense, speed, and all-around talent, it's not comparable to really anyone we've EVER had. It's unprecedented for our franchise(Yount went straight up in an entirely different era). I guess it'd be like Sheffield, but we all know his issues with the org. But that type of offensive production...as a 5 tool CFer? If you're not gonna pay this kid, you don't pay anyone. He's with Wander Franco, Julio Rodriguez, Griffey Jr, Soto...he's in a group of players where I really can't find someone who failed. Royce Lewis MAYBE? He was approximating that level of prospect before he had a couple of ACL injuries. There is ALWAYS a reason you can find to NOT give a big contract to a player. That's obvious. I think in this case, there are more arguments for a small-market Brewers team to pay him. Otherwise, you're forced to trade him at the point Acuna Jr is at right now...or when the Nats traded Soto. And while it's an incredible problem to have, I'd rather the Brewers have another homegrown talent who comes up with us, develops, and turns into an MVP-caliber player through his prime than...2-3 years of a 20-23-year-old star, then start the "when do we trade him and for how much," type trade discussions we've had with Hader, Burnes. I get the other perspective...and I really don't believe they do sign him before the season starts. MAYBE a shot that he signs 2 months in assuming a monster run in AAA knowing it'll now be 7 years before he's a FA, but...we'll see.

I don't think a Acuna Jr type contract would get it done...I think 10/150 2 option years plus escalators may get it done however. An MVP, GG, etc...and he gets significant incentives. It's risky for the team, but if you want a player like this hitting in the middle of your lineup from 20-30...this is probably what you'd have to do. The Acuna Jr deal though...next to the Albies deal, they were both viewed as bad deals for the players right away. Albies worse than Acuna Jr, but we'll see. I don't see the Brewers committing this type of money to a player this young, they'll want to wait until he's proven more...then usually they can see Free Agency coming like with Burnes and it's too late. BUT...we'll see. I'd love to see it and I think it'd make a lot of sense.

There's a huge chasm between a Hiura-type prospect(more like a Frelick in status) vs a Chourio/Acuna Jr/Holliday/Rodriguez-type prospect.

I just don't love the idea that because you haven't had bats, you use your pitchers to add bats moving forward. Feels like we've been addressing bats the last few years in the draft or in trades, adding young talent...now what we need to do is trade with a team that's got young pitching but doesn't want to wait for it to develop. Dodgers, Phils...there are obviously others. The Rangers(though.,.if you win the WS, you can get more patient with those young arms...or maybe you double down, I don't know).

I was learning that way even with Woody(but also happy to see them run it back as I can't be mad at a team trying to win). But Burnes, Adams, Williams...I'd look to trade, add controllable talent for '25.

Yes, Benkert actually provides context beyond, "what are they doing," and "Love sucks." That was bad. I heard this game was worse. I'm still taking Caleb Williams(he'll be a Bear or Cardinal( or maybe Drake Maye...zero chance on JJ McCarthy) if we can, otherwise, Fashanu, Alt...build the smart way. Now, you can also trade back up, add a pick in the ~15 range for another elite OT in this elite draft class.

Yes...and then extended him a year. The author is saying you don't want to go into a QBs final year with him NOT under contract further and that's...just silly.

No, you listed veterans who we'd save money on if we traded them(while omitting veterans who could be traded re; money saved in a trade). Everyone was talking about Douglas being on the trade block.

Don't buy that Rodgers played better because of Love. Also don't buy it's possible to know how good Love is with this slop he's playing with. And it's nobody in particular(I heard Walker had a poor game, but missed my first game in ~25 years Sunday).

Who are the "people" that "continue to discount YOUR argument for the importance of a "high-performing,"(not the same as figuring out if a QB is a HOF caliber QB his first year as a starter). Ok...if that's your question, I'd say it's a much better one than "is he a HOF caliber QB." Jalen Hurts just got them to a SB and was play away from winning one(he's not a HOF caliber QB in your mind). Brock Purdy is the QB of arguably the best team in the NFL right now. Jimmy G has been to multiple SBs. You're looking for an answer to a question...which has changed now, that's virtually impossible to answer at this point in a players career. Was Aaron Rodgers a "HOF caliber QB," after his 6-10 season? Finally...as I get ready to leave for the weekend, I'd recommend you read this entire thread and look at All22 if you're going to come to this conclusion one way or another based on the information we have at hand; It's far more than the one picture. Be back on Sunday/Monday.

And yet he's making 51M a year, was the highest paid QB ever when he signed his 250M+ deal. So...if he wins that SB, then he's a likely HOF QB? Is Russell Wilson? Because he was carried to the SB by his defenses. Well, I said nothing about being on a rookie deal and I don't think he's the best QB ever. That makes this nebulous "If he a HOF QB," a year into starting that much more of a moving target. Brady, also carried by his defense in his first couple SBs and they were paying Drew Bledsoe(I think he was the 2nd 100M dollar player in the NFL). So that kinda shoots down two points. I don't think this helps the "College stats" argument. He couldn't start over a string of non-NFL QBs like Cardale Jones, JT Barrett...then after 3 years(which was Love's entire career) he transferred to LSU has Chase, and Jefferson(arguably the top 2 WRers in the NFL right now) as well as Fournette...and he had one year in which he cracks your threshold. If that doesn't prove College States are totally useless in this context, I don't know what would.

If you click on it, it shows a LOT more than just this one play. It shows the Defense in Cover4 and the communication isn't there for the QB and WRer to run a quick out(Love looks like he's ready to throw, but they're just running into coverage). There are others as well. Certainly, some of it is Love's fault, but we thought we were giving him a lot of help and then Jones gets hurt in week 1, Bakh is done after 1, and Watson in and out. Musgrave has taken a couple of BIG shots leading to missed time.

Yes. No question. My only concern is the industry scrutiny on Acuna Jr and the Julio Rodriguez deal may make this worse, but each player is different. But yes, 100%. The only thing I'd do is go 8 years with 2 option years. 8/120, 2 option years at 25M. MVP, GG, HR Champ-type incentives that would increase his future salaries. I think this is almost always the way to go and they should be talking with Contreras right now(just signing a guy doesn't lock you into keeping him). Frelick, Uribe are others I would extend(at grossly different numbers). So I always like this idea. But it's different with a 19-year-old CF prospect who has produced like he has as he's climbed up to AAA before 20.

Is the "we'll see how they do in the big market," not ALWAYS levied at a Milwaukee Star...and when they end up in a big market, they almost always seem to be embraced and have success? I don't see a reasonable argument that Counsell can manage a bad team, but now when the really hard questions and higher expectations come, he'll just crumble. This isn't "Soup pitched well tonight," he's pretty open and upfront when it comes to his team's shortcomings and his own team's shortcomings. Why do we think Boone is fine in that regard, but Counsell will...what, collapse under the pressure? Seems unlikely.