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BrewerFan

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  1. I mostly agree with this. I think Darrisaw is huge for that team and a really good young OT and a huge loss for Minnesota. He's not a Sewell type OT, but closer to a Zach Tom. I see the parallels to the 13-4 season, but this team has looked much better this year. I throw out the TNF games... I just don't know what Sam Darnold really is. They still have the 4 teams the Bears were lucky to get to start the season. That was the NFLs way of helping Caleb Williams since their coaches aren't exactly developing QBs like Tom Clements. So that helped them ease in and the Vikings still get to see those teams. Great coaching staff. Detroit is really good, but without their starting DEs, unless they make a huge move and add a DE, the loss of Hutchinson is just too big. Chicago is not there yet, Caleb looks much better, but that's been a soft schedule. Packers seem like they're in a really good situation right now. DL got some pressure last week, even if it was scheme rather than just beating their man, that should get better. Lloyd and Musgrave coming back give the Packers more options, Wicks, Doubs are playing better. Not a single complete game and they just beat a 5-1 team with two turnovers inside the ~10-15 and they still pulled it out. I think they're going to just round into form and they'll take off.
  2. There were just comments about Darnold getting 50M in Free Agency, now...they'll replace him with Stafford! I think I'd actually be for that. They've got 3 picks in this upcoming draft, a 1 and 2 5ths. They picked JJ McCarthy...who is really hard to evaluate(he's tough, athletic, but didn't throw much). But they'd almost certainly have to start with 2 1sts, right? That seems to be the standard for a starting QB of his caliber...and then probably a couple more day 2 picks. Is Stafford that big of an upgrade over what Darnold has done to leave them without 1sts for '25 and '26 and then just 6-7 picks total those two years?
  3. Yeah, the Arenado deal made far less sense than this would make for the Rockies. The Rockies don't operate under any type of coherent strategy. But, McMahon's problem are the stark contrast between Coors and the Road. .265/.340/.474 with an .814 OPS at home .220/.306/.367 and .673 OPS on the road Good BABIP at home. 335. But just under .300 on the road, so it's not like it's poor luck. Are we paying 3 years and 44M for a .673 OPS? Or even if you split the difference. .240/.325/.425? Even at that price is that worth 12/16/16 million per year? But now you're giving away Tyler Black, probably our best MLB ready trade chip AND the player I want to give up even less, Abner Uribe. Uribe has dominant, All-Star closer type upside. He's gotta grow up a bit and he needs to throw more strikes, but to be able to slide Megill into the closers role and have a guy like Uribe who can come in and put out the fires like Megill did, that's invaluable. Or be a lock down closer himself. This dude is a HEAVY GB pitcher who throws 103-104 at times, his slider is upper 90s and he's got a 60-grade slider. And yet...his value is low due to an emotionally immature outburst last year and a suspension that...I believe he'd have worked his way back by June, but he had a meniscus tear. So between the contract, the talent we're giving up and the home/road splits, they'd have to eat a big chunk of that deal...IMO.
  4. Dude...I got to see this team win a Title...I got to see Giannis and now I get to see Dame healthy and in shape. Middleton last year was near prime Middleton in the post-season(at least offensively). I know it's asking a lot, but they get to May, June with a healthy team...I like our odds. Giannis and Dame have something to prove, Middleton is a much better #3 with this group. The length of Prince and Wright...I'd like to see Beauchamp play more because I still think there's something there and I don't want to see Middleton play more than ~55 games and 30MPG in those games. I think AJax will be a dude this year. I'm also looking at the rest of the league and while Boston is a powerhouse and Philly and NYK are probably better when healthy, I don't care. It's the reality of the NBA, but you CAN mortgage the future and we've done that and no better time to do that than with Giannis. In retrospect, bring Halliburton back home would have been wiser than Dame, but what can you do? I put it at about 10% we have one last run, but again, if not...I enjoyed the Suns series and I can respect that the ownership group did what they said they would(Save for maybe Brogdon, but...bygones and all that). 1-0 On pace for 82-0!
  5. Timing works out for us. If we want to add someone, we have the Jags(on the road...which has historically been a tough game) and the big matchup with the Lions. Not sure we're going to do much. Stokes could go to a team short on CBs if he's fallen out of favor, or we could look to add someone, though not sure where. Most trades would be a marginal upgrade. The big rumors are...very unlikely. Be nice to see Johnathan Ford active this week...see if he can help vs the run. It's the one thing we're still struggling with the Jags do well.
  6. I still think Lieter, 24, is a pretty damn good prospect. He's got some mechanical issues and I've no doubt the Brewers could get the most out of him. He's spent part of one year in, 9 games in the Major Leagues. I agree it's a moot point, but he's a power-hitting 2B who still plays elite defense and...again, 24+ WAR the last 4 years. He's pretty damn good and a 4-year deal is not bad. I don't think the Brewers would do it, but...I'm skeptical other teams would need to jump through hoops in order to just take on Semien's contract. 26M a year is too much for the Brewers, but the Phillies, Giants, Yankees(Who could REALLY use some IF defense and power). And as much as I love Willy, if, there were a scenario in which we were committing 26M to a player, I'd rather it be 4 years of Semien rather than 7 years of Adames.
  7. How else would you? Just teach someone else on the team how to do it? Because it's a specialist and what teams in the league do you see having someone else holding? Malik Willis? He's never been a holder. Any other position player? And if they get hurt? You anecdotally don't remember any bad holds. The playoff game=bad hold. Because they're DIRECTLY related. I don't know how to put that more plainly. See...you've turned this into a "why didn't they cut the LS, change the holder if they were issues." ASIDE from repeatedly saying they were ONE PART of the issue, not the whole issue, they tried to replace the LS and have done so numerous times. The Holder(again) was a 1st year punter who's improved. You're still(somehow) viewing this as a binary choice. It's EITHER the LSer, Holder or Kicker and I'm trying to explain it's a unit. So when you don't block Patrick Peterson off the edge and he takes it off the kickers foot=Not on the Kicker When they get a push up the middle and block the ball=Not on the Kicker When it's a bad hold vs the 49ers and the ball isn't placed right=not on the Kicker When the kicker just misses it...it's on the Kicker. I can't come up with a simpler explanation as to why we'd be discussing other aspects of the kicking unit when talking about...missed kicks.
  8. What team in the NFL has had a kicker, punter AND holder? You used to have a QB hold...we don't do that any longer. You're saying it hasn't been a big issue or "as big of an issue as some suggest," and thus why haven't they changed the LS and Punter/Holder. You're acknowledging the LS issues, again, Wheelan was as I just said, a rookie last year, a guy who came from Ireland and Soccer. HE'S improved. I'm not sure how this is controversial. There's 3 aspects to a kick. Snap, hold, kick(4 with the blocking as we had blocked kicks last year as well). You're acknowledging they've been bad...so I guess I don't know what "that big of an issue," means. It's the NFL. We're talking about how bad 82% was. How that was unacceptable. We're not parsing out percentages for how many were strictly on the kicker vs the holder vs the long snapper, the unit blocking... I don't know how to do that without lining up every kick and watching them. They seem like they were quite a bit better this year and specifically Wheelan, so I don't see a reason to use another roster spot on a holder specialist. If Rasheed Walker gets beaten, Love gets hurried, hit as he throws the ball, do we debate if the result was entirely on Love, Walker or do we say the unit was bad that play? Or even in that particular sequence, the OL was bad, that forced it? If there's no pressure and Love throws the ball over the middle(I'm thinking of the Watson injury) do we say that one was on Love? This is the ultimate team game.
  9. It feels like they almost never do. What's the TOP paid kicker? Roughly 6M. The FA class for kicker is not real impressive, two 40 year old kickers. Eddy Pineiro might be the best, he kicked for the Bears. But even two years out, Daniel Carlson is the best and he's one of 3 kickers in 2026 that is a FA. If you're a kicker, you're good, it's not like betting on yourself is going to earn you another 40M GTD or 20M as a WR, DE, so who doesn't take the 5-6M extension? https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/_/year/2025/position/k/sort/contract_value
  10. Well, they just cut their long snapper on...Monday. It was a procedural move, but they did so with absolutely no fear anyone else would claim him. They signed the top long snapper in the past draft. They've gone through multiple long snappers in the last several years and have seemingly looked under just about every rock for one. And Wheelan was just a 1st year Punter who hadn't held much. He's gotten better. But again, we JUST saw a terrible snap. You had Wheelan save a safety a couple games ago, you have him take one off the ground and get it down in time for McManus. It's pretty obvious given the Long Snappers they've cycled through, they understand the problem...they just haven't found one. Doesn't mean Carlson or Narveson haven't just missed, but if the ball is blocked, if the hold has the laces facing the kicker and the ball tilted left to right, if the snap forces the kicker out of his timing, they all add up to a bad operation. Multiple things can be true.
  11. I don't know what the point of the trade is for the Rangers if you're adding two prospects? You trade a guy who's averaged 6 WAR since Covid...you give up two good or really good prospects and you get back 3 guys the Brewers may DFA? If someone said the Brewers wouldn't do this, it'd be because taking on 4/104 for a 34 year old isn't really how they operate, but I have a feeling another team would be willing to just take the contract without the prospects. If that deal was out there though...sure, I'd try and get it done. He's an elite defender still, hits for power, still runs well.
  12. We were REAL close and a nice save by Wheelan from missing another one from 45 also. Kicker's have to make the kicks, but that's still just 1/3rd of the process. We're a couple years in and this still is far from a well-oiled machine. And McManus misses that kick if Wheelan doesn't get the hold down...because...bad spot, and people would have said it was on McManus. Maybe Stokes or WR gets traded for a couple late picks to ensure you get the top LS and K next draft!
  13. And the injuries? I know he had a back issue...something with a disc issue. Is he supposed to be good to go for next year? Would you plan on him being a utility IFer(I know he's played all 4 IF spots)?
  14. Is this exclusively because Miller isn't a good player or are you high(relatively speaking) on Dunn? I've heard people talk about his ceiling and how he has a relatively high one, but...I haven't seen it and haven't watched him much.
  15. I agree, he'll get the turnovers down. There have been a couple that have been just really poor luck, but he does need to make better decisions at times. The whole offense has been just a bit off. The DL has really struggled...and they're 5-2. This team has a whole other level or two to it.
  16. I think he's just here to help put the game plan in. The coaches have the game plan in by Tues, they work on it for a couple of days, and by Friday they're just doing walk-throughs. It may also be a contractual issue. Something to that effect. If he's on the sidelines for a team on Sunday, the pay may be offset (I don't know if that's true). I'm happy just to have the guy around. Ideally he'd take on a bigger role next year, but he's too good of a coach. Had Saleh been available, he'd have been my #1/2 choice for DC...at the time.
  17. You might be able to argue Goff. He was the 1st pick, went to a SB, now he's great in Det...and I really thought Lawrence would be. Especially after coach McGrabby left, but no, you're right. Dak getting 60M GTD is...absolutely insane. Not sure you're right about Sam Darnold. He'll be the ultimate litmus test. I'd also argue the Browns and 49ers knew they had pretty good QBs but were looking for that upgrade. SF didn't replace Jimmy G with Purdy, they fell into him bassackwards. They traded 3 1sts and...whatever else to move up for Lance. Next year will be interesting as you're going to have Darnold, one of Fields or Wilson(I'd guess Wilson, but he took the job from Fields) maybe Cousins as @GAME05suggested. I wouldn't be surprised to see a team like the Giants both draft one and sign one to a short deal. A deal like Baker got...but it'll be tough to sign someone like Darnold if you've only seen them in that system with those weapons, but teams are seldom rational about QB.
  18. The Panthers would be smart to do exactly what the Bears did. This isn't the year for an elite QB, trade out of the #1 spot(which I think they'll get) and like you said, built the team first. There are some freak WR prospects, some DL, you could even go CB and then come back and get some playmakers. They really don't need much help on the OL. Ekwonu at LT is a franchise LT, they signed Hunt to a huge deal, he's playing well. They have two other guys who are playing really well and then Taylor Moton is a good RT, 68.3 overall grade, but he's 30, so probably not a core piece of their future. If they'd JUST stayed put, they could have drafted Darnell Wright, a guy I think is a prototypical RT in the modern NFL, kept DJ Moore who is still young, they'd have been in position to draft Caleb, Daniels or Maye at least(probably still Caleb or Daniels, Daniels if they were lucky). Same thing this year. This class has a ton of talent at CB, DL, WR, but who is the top QB? Cam Ward? Millroe from 'Bama? I mean, he can drive without a couple of phone books, but do they want to go back to 'Bama for a QB this soon? Wait until 2026, you'll have Arch Manning possibly(I still believe he's a great talent) but there are several other QBs who could break out. Allar may be in contention for the #1 pick. So trade the #1 for 2-3 1sts+2-3 2nd rd picks, take a guy like Hunter or Graham in the top and load up for the 2026 draft. ,They should also trade everyone who's not going to be there when they're competitive. Clowney is a guy the Packers could use. He's 10th in pass rush win/loss rate. As of now, Gary and Smith are 39th and 46th out of the top 50 qualified edge rushers. LVN would be 47th if he was eligible. But players like that. Then get your cap fixed. They have 60M in dead cap this year, less than a million in cap space and they suck. They need to just turn that thing around and I hate how the Lions and the Bears have become two good examples of how to do that. The Lions really built up that OL. I'd say he gets one more year. Just might as well give Penix another year and the Cap hit, it doesn't make much sense unless they're offered a 1st or something really valuable. Maybe a team like SF needs a QB IF something happens to Purdy and with ATL paying the signing bonus, he'd be cheap enough and they wouldn't owe him too much against the cap and could get out of the deal more easily(Det, any team like that). Or maybe they really like Penix and want to suck it up and eat that cap hit sooner rather than later. A post June 1st trade would save them more than the cap hit would be(spreading it out). How they finish that season will probably be the asnwer.
  19. Yeah...I feel like that started after the Jordan Love pick. MAYBE it happened in 2018 when he was articulating how he watched the Rams run their offense and wished they ran an innovative offense like that, but he was generally regarded as a good leader early on. Maybe it's just like he said, he thought when he's had as much success and seen the things he's seen, you'd think the organization would include him in "those talks," meaning personnel. But yeah...that team is so dysfunctional. They're not bad because they lack talent. They have an elite defense. No question there. Garrett Wilson is a stud, Mike Williams has always been a very good WR when healthy, Breece Hall is a very good RB. The OL is playing like an elite group this year. Tyron Smith, LG-John Simpson has a better PFF grade than Elgton Jenkins, Joe Tippman has been very good, -Vera-Tucker, again, much higher grade than Jenkins and their "weak spot," is RT and Morgan Mosses has a better grade than Walker. Basically...combine our OL with theirs and it's Zach Tom and the next 5 best are the Jets with the 11th pick Fashanu in a learning year. Tyler Conklin is fine(again, PFF is just one grade, but higher than Tucker Kraft...which admittedly can't be right, but he's at least solid). This team may not be AS talented as the Brady Buccs...but they're not that far off. And Rodgers just physical abilities have not fallen off. He can still do things with the FB no QB in the NFL now or ever before him can do(Lazard over the middle is one). So what is it? Why aren't they buying in? Why have they lost 3 games with the ball in Rodgers hands and thrown picks? Why is a REALLY good NFL coach being paid 5M a year to stay home? Rodgers ego the last few years has just grown to where he thinks he's the smartest guy in the room and he used to take responsibility, even if it wasn't on him for the losses. He's stopped doing that. He is bigger than the team and clearly it's infecting the Jets locker room. They just added Adams and a guy with 50.5 sacks in the last 4 years in Adams and Reddick and...I think they'll end up just good enough that Rodgers will be back next year, do the same thing and get similar results. Remember all the fawning over Joe Douglas and guys like McAfee talking about how dumb Gutekunst was? LOL...has fun with at least 1 more year of 'hey guys, can why can't you see the curvature of the Earth,' guy at QB? Maybe another trip to Peru will fix him!
  20. Nah, my opinion was a 30-year-old LB who...hadn't had a good season since he was Minnesota would go unclaimed I think was pretty valid at the time. He was a guy nobody wanted in the off-season and we re-signed him to the minimum. I said they should put him on the PS and protect him until we had a roster spot available if they needed the roster spot for another position, someone they really liked...Dubose for example or...more specifically Kristian Welch who looked like he played his way onto the 53 man in the pre-season. They did have 4 guys signed to 53 man I think, lost Welch. But I wanted him on the roster, active, as depth and a special teams ace like he had been. No reason not to go with the hot hand.
  21. Jaire-72.8 -76.4 Coverage grade Stokes-52.4-50 Coverage grade(run defense grade was actually nearly 63...) Nixon-63.9, 57.6 Coverage grade(94.9 pass rush grade, 69.4 run defense) Valentine-58.5 57.8 Coverage grade Javon Bullard 55 45.6 Coverage grade(exceptional run defense, 78.6 and a very good pass rush grade). Evan Williams and McKinney are both...awesome. Williams 89.5 around 82 in both coverage and run defense McKinney 90.3, Coverage grade of 90.2(this was 94.5 last week, so clearly INTs are weighed VERY heavily) and then pass rush 80.5, run defense 70.3. Just to my eye...FWIW, Bullard is graded the most harshly. I don't know how they grade...that'd be helpful. For instance, the TD that Nixon gave up in this clip, is this a negative play, positive, or neutral? IMO, you cover like this, you did your job. You're only expecting a handful of CBs to make this play. It's also a lot easier to cover when you're just unloading on Stroud as they did this past week and much tougher when you're playing the Vikings or Eagles on poor turf. We've also played a lot of exactly the type of defense we all wanted when Barry was here. The PFF grades as a whole seem a little dodgy to me. Tucker Kraft has a ~57 overall, poor run-blocking grade, they have Jenkins as one of the worst run blockers at Guard in the league, and Rashan Gary jumped about 10 points coming off this past game, but in any event the arrow on this defense is definitely pointing in the right direction. It'd REALLY be nice to improve that pass rush though. Crosby and Garrett are incredibly unlikely, but we have a lot of talent on that DL.
  22. I guess they believe it's the latter, but...I'm struggling to see it. You have Nixon and Ja play almost every snap on defense and then Valentine...I don't know if he even played. I thought Stokes was playing really well. He was giving up completions, but the Packers were asking him to play man and weren't getting much of a pass rush. This Hafley guy seems to have a pretty good grasp on defense and secondary play in particular given his background and the 7 games he's coached this year...so I guess I'll just consider it a good thing we've got Stokes, Valentine and Ballentine ready to come in-in the event of an injury.
  23. 1-Hell yeah. I doubt the Cards do. Walker was a superstar prospect. Not just a good one...a great one. He's a 3B who had MVP potential. I doubt the Cards give up on him and if they do...I suspect they take less to trade him elsewhere. 2-I don't think that gets you Mayo. Peralta is a #3. 2 years of a #3 and an OFer which the Orioles have 4-5 young really good hitters, plus Mullins, a lefty. I don't think they're trading a top ~10 prospect for that. *Kjerstad, Cowers, Santander(who is a FA, but this Baltimore team seems like they're going to spend), Norby...if he doesn't play 2nd which would push Holliday to 3B, Westburg(HE could be an option and more likely than Mayo IMO), Stowers....and then their 1st round pick in '23(17) and a lefty with a similar profile as Frelick, Enrique Bradfield Jr, already a big year in AA and Mountcastle could play OF. Point is, they've got a lot of OFers, they have a lot of lefties...so a top 10 prospect with 40 HR potential at 3rd or 1st for 2 years of a solid pitcher, but not an ace and then another OF who probably would be 5th, 6th on their depth chart(or lower if Santander is back). Is that an exchange you'd make? I think trading for Westburg or Norby may make more sense. Their lineup should be C-# Rutschman 1B-Mayo 2B-Westburg/Mayo SS-Gunnar 3B-*Holliday LF-*Kjerstad CF-*Mullins/Bradfield RF-*Cowers DH-#Santander And I think they're going to finally spend like a team in their market should. New ownership, I think they'll go after Soto, but that's a wild prediction of my own, I do think they try and re-sign Burnes, Santander. This is a team that should be able to spend 150-180 pretty easily and they have 80M committed(roughly). But hey...I could be wrong. They also have a 3B/C prospect Basallo who's 13th overall, in AAA and kinda like Quero a better hit tool(in terms of his scouting grades) and could be their Catcher of the future with a 60 Hit, 60 Power and 60 Arm. That's...one helluva trade chip if they want to use one to get an ace. I just find the O's really interesting. If they spend, they could have a dynasty. That's a huge if, but you'd think they'd HAVE to. If nothing else, extend Holliday, Rutschman, Gunnar and lock up your core. 3-I would look at Bryson Stott as well. I think the Phillies MAY be a secret player for Adames. There were rumors they'd go after Soto(they may....he's the type of guy you justify getting stupid for). Adames to Philly, you could move Stott to 3B. Bohm would be idea, but Devin Williams and if there's another piece, Payamps as they don't appear to have a great pen. I really want Painter. They're also looking to upgrade CF. I don't believe you'll get enough of Mitchell making contact, making that contact in the air, and play enough games to hit some of these 30/30 projections. I'd be willing to do a Devin Williams+Garrett Mitchell+prospects for Bohm and Painter or even Stott and Painter...more likely Frelick and a throw in pitcher in this scenario, but they have said they want to upgrade CF. So I like that. Ultimately, I doubt they Adames or another big FA, but we still match up. And it'd probably be simpler. Williams+Frelick for Bohm/Stott, but I like getting optimistic.
  24. Dude...they've got 55M in cap space...and yeah, they have some key guys getting older. Kittle is 31, Trent is 36(but he's still dominant)...Hargraves is 31 I think, but he's out anyway. They'll be able to work around the cap. Purdy will sign...even if it's 4/240 and the deal will add the 4th year of his rookie deal and it'll be 5/241.5 and it'll be 20M the first year, 35, 45 and then they'll restructure it...if he's still good, but if they have just average health next year or even the rest of this year, they'll be fine. They'll lose a couple corners, but that rookie Renaldo Green looks like a hit, Puni from Kansas they just keep finding talent at WR(they should have traded Ayiuk...and I'm not saying that because he just tore an ACL, just because they could have added at least a 1st and not paid him...though he is a #1). Maybe you're right...but if they become an average team, it'll be more due to Hufanga, Hargrave, McCaffery, and guys like that, but I still think that team is a problem when healthy. As long as they've got Bosa, Trent, Warner an endless line of stud WRs(and their 1st rd pick is on his way back) and a really well run team, they'll be a contender. The window on this current group is closing, but everytime you think they're done, they go out and make a couple moves, trade for Trent, CMac, have a bad year and draft Bosa, whatever(imagine if they hadn't done the Fields trade and drafted Parsons+2 1sts). To be fair, I thought the Jets were going to be pretty solid this year and the Vikings were going to be terrible...
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