BrewerFan
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Willy Adames goes to San Fran 7 years, $182 million
BrewerFan replied to Jastro's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
No...to either. Neither player was let go because the Packers financially could not afford to pay their salary OR because they couldn't afford either player. Yeah, I don't really know how this argument can be made, but...sure. The Brewers couldn't afford it, but it's not a data point to support that baseball continues to be the one major sport where small market teams lose their stars? I'm not sure how it's NOT a data point, but...alright. -
Willy Adames goes to San Fran 7 years, $182 million
BrewerFan replied to Jastro's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The comment plainly was not specific to Adames. I'm genuinely confused as to why this is a difficult concept. -
Willy Adames goes to San Fran 7 years, $182 million
BrewerFan replied to Jastro's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
You're really stretching to willfully miss the point here for...some strange reason. -Yeah, NFL teams lose players to the salary cap. They're still all playing on a level field, right? Who was the last player the Packers lost that they wanted to keep because of cap? That's a team that plays in a market of 100K people. -I don't care how Hader did last year as I said in the previous post. -Prince Fielder didn't sign with the Rangers, he signed with the Tigers, he was outstanding, he got hurt and the Rangers had his contract insured...though I'm not even sure why he's being brought up? You not minding how MLB is structured...in absolutely no way changes the ridiculous inequities in how MLB is structured toward other leagues. David Bakhtiari was injured and couldn't play most of the 4 years after signing the largest deal for an OL in NFL history. Does that in ANY WAY dispute the original point? I also very specifically said; And you responded by...talking about why they weren't great deals for...whatever reason. -
Willy Adames goes to San Fran 7 years, $182 million
BrewerFan replied to Jastro's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The comment was made that Baseball is the only major sport in which small-market teams are EXPECTED to lose their stars to large-market teams. Not about about being "victims," because they couldn't sign Willy Adames to this exact deal, it was a larger and pretty simple point. The Packers aren't expected to just...let any player they draft who they hit on leaves because they can't possibly match the Cowboys, Giants, Rams, etc... The Bucks, again, they didn't just reconcile themselves to the fact that Giannis was gone when he became a star because they just couldn't consider spending the money to keep them. So no part of this statement; ...is wrong. Hader, Burnes, Williams. You can rationalize why each individual deal wasn't a great deal...and that's not the point. -
Willy Adames goes to San Fran 7 years, $182 million
BrewerFan replied to Jastro's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Doesn't change his post in any way. -
Awfully low bar. This isn't 5 kids playing baseball in the yard, this is MLB. You can use a real runner. Speaking of which, that's the one I don't like. The guy starting on 2B in extras.
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I love those, the shift. Replay has been good. There are a few very small aspects of replay I don't love, but on balance it's a huge success. Eliminating the shift(or limiting it) has been great. This would just...skew the game too much. You'd also see the best hitters getting paid more. Imagine getting Soto out and then you have to face him again 2 hitters later with 2 on or the bases loaded. Just...an asinine idea.
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I thought Montas would be a nice guy to bring back on...2/15 maybe. He throws in the upper 90s, obviously the Brewers liked him and probably thought they could get more out of him, but 17M over 2 years? Insane. @Team Canada...that's the most absurd idea I think I've heard discussed. If you did do that...I'd imagine Soto's value would go up significantly. Bases loaded, big spot, he may be the player I want up more than anyone else in the game.
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I'm holding off plenty. Literally nobody is saying hand out tens of millions to Made or Pratt right now. AFTER they become one of, if not the top prospect(s) in the game and before we call them up(which would be following Chourio's performance and once or even immediately before they're set to get promoted) they are guys I'd like to sign. It's obviously dependent upon them actually becoming those types of players.
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Oh...yeah, hard pass in that case. I thought you were being a smart ass and just assumed it was Kim from the Pads...which also made me think the contract was a bit light, but that's too big of a risk given our resources. Good chance he ends up as a utility IFer given his experience at SS and 2B, but we really can't afford to pay the posting fee(I'm not even entirely sure how that works anymore) and give him 40M over 5 years just based on his performance in the KBO.
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Sure...maybe that's part of it...though most of those players are younger or in their prime, but even if it was just older players, it's hardly because they brought in McCaffery. They still have another year with Purdy under contract and if they extend him, even if it's for 4/200M, we all know how that deal will go. It's more like 5/200 since he's got just 1M, his cap hits will still be plenty cheap enough the next few years. I'd love to believe this is the downfall of SF, but I think it's just a bad year. They'll be back next year. And if anything has really hurt SF, it was that Trey Lance deal...maybe the Buckner deal. They had an elite DE and a top 3-4 DT that made them a nightmare and they tried to trade Buckner and draft a guy, but those guys are rare. This is the 2020 49ers. They still have too much good young talent, but you're always vulnerable to injuries.
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I agree...and that's also why each players value isn't that high. If they moved any of them, I wouldn't be upset, but it's not a Jackie Bradley Jr type scenario where I think we'd be so lucky to get out of the deal(that was an amazing trade). If Hoskins was coming off a career average ~.830 OPS or so, he'd have some surplus value instead of negative. And I'm talking about among GMs, not using his WAR. He may "only" put up a 1.5 WAR this year as he'll DH and his defense is average at best, but I don't really care about the WAR in that case as much as the OPS and run production.
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Yeah, I agree. Those two are the top two teams, but the way the Eagles rookie CBs are playing...plus Jevon Carter and speed on the edges and they have the advantage. Both teams have dominant OLs who can wear you down, big playmakers. But Detroit lost so much with the Hutchinson injury. The Packers have a chance to run the table, but they'll need Love playing closer to 2nd half of last year, Wicks to come up with big catches that keep the chains moving, but more importantly, they need that DL to stake a blue pill and stiffen up when playing those teams in particular. The best RT in the NFL is on Detroit(and a well-rounded and elite OL) and Phlily has the best run game with Hurts and Barkley. I think the Packers can turn it up, but where they've been...it's not good enough. Getting Lloyd back from injury to add a little more versatility in the run game, Musgrave and Kraft make a really versatile TE duo. The bruiser and the guy who stretches the field down the seam. But more than anyone, Jaire needs to be healthy if they're going to play press man. But they're mostly healthy and just need to clean some things up and I think the NFC is open for a team to get hot and beat anyone. I don't think either of these teams are as good as the 49ers last year. It'll come down to the LOS. Can Walker, Myers(both ranked 2nd last at their position per PFF) and then the DL with a history of playing big late. Gonna be a fun stretch run.
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I'm enjoying the 49ers struggles, but...I can't put that on CMac(and I'm not sure why there was a lot of hubris in the move). I thought that was a great move for them. He played every game the last two years, was a stud for them...this year he's been hurt. The real issue is that team has been decimated by injuries. HOF-LT in Williams was out AP(and I'd say a DE on a HOF trajectory) in Bosa-out. CB-The guy they just gave 90M in Lenoir was out WR#1 Ayiuk-Season ender PB DT-Javon Hargrave(18 sacks last 2 years) season-ending injury They were missing a starting OG, missing 2 other starters on the DL. Purdy has missed time, Kittle, Deebo. Ward who was a 2nd team AP last year at CB. Plus, they're 52M under the cap and they'll roll a ton over into next year. They have to extend Purdy(and this year may make that cheaper)...but I don't think bringing in CMac was the problem at all. It's like Philly bringing in Barkley, but CMac was younger and Barkley got more than CMac. They would have been fine if you have Ayiuk, Deebo, Jennings and then their 1st rd pick not getting shot in the chest to start the year on IR, Kittle, Trent at LT, I think they'd still be an elite offense(but then they're missing 4-5 elite defensive players). It is always nice to see SF struggling though...whatever the reason.
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I don't even know what they were though. Was it just general immaturity? With Spencer Rattler, you saw it on that Documentary, he was just obnoxious, but with Caleb, it seemed like he was not coachable and then I just heard "maturity issues." That and when you hve the talent he had around him and you can't beat ANY of the top-ranked teams(IIRC, his record vs ranked teams was like 2-11 or something). I heard people talking about Jayden Daniels, some even saying they should consider him...and when they made their argument, it's pretty easy. He was incredible throwing the ball outside the numbers and pushing it downfield. He was a great runner. A more elusive Randall Cunningham type. Even had the 6'3 frame. But I don't think anyone was seriously looking at Daniels over Caleb. Maybe the Bears should have. I believe Williams will end up having some monster seasons...I just don't know if he's going to be the guy who can get you over the top. The lack of awareness the last play...saying you couldn't get the FG team out there anyway...yes, it's on the HC, but you gotta get that ball snapped at LEAST by ~10 seconds. You let 33 seconds or so tick off. That's not just a rookie mistake, that's worse than that.
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Are they really that rare or do they just have so many talented arms that it just seems like more guys are getting hurt? It feels like Tampa has a lot of guys who undergo TJ and come back. It also feels like the Brewers have been abnormally lucky in this regard...but in all of those statements, the word doing the heavy lifting is "feels like." I'm curious if there's an actual metric. And do the Dodgers tend to let their young pitchers fight through injury because they've got so many? Are the Brewers just better at getting out in front of that dreaded "forearm soreness," that invariably seems to lead to TJ? I don't know, but I don't think the Dodgers pitchers are to be avoided because of this. Perhaps a gentler hand or maybe it's just bad luck and a competitive environment in which they pitch through it because if they don't, well, they have 6 guys make 25-35M ready to start for them!
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Maybe...or these close games will just serve them all the better in playoff Football. I don't see one "great" team in the NFL right now. Detroit is really good and may be that team is they had Hutchinson. Could be the Ravens or Bills year. I'd like to see Love get hot like last year. This could be the ideal year to steal one...
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Yeah, if that's the case though...it's not like the Chargers. I remember it was about 50/50 Leaf/Manning and people thought Leaf was mature. With Caleb, he had these signs of immaturity at USC. Did the Bears even consider Daniels over Williams? I know it seemed like a no-brainer, but I wonder if they even did their due diligence. The Bears really have to nail this next coaching hire. I'd imagine they'll bring in an offensive minded coach...but I keep thinking that and they just consistently run the organization like a little Mom and Pop organization. Just read they flew Dan Quinn Coach when he was interviewing for the job in '22. Most organizations charter a Jet or send their private plane. They're flying guys in via coach... Still, Caleb, Odunze, Moore, Kmet, at least the start of an OL. That'll likely be the most highly coveted job this off-season, but I don't know who is likely or available. Gruden?
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Yeah, that'd work. Not really Wes Clarke, even as an emergency, but another catcher. If Haase or Contreras has a short-term injury...I suspect Quero will be fine coming up for a short period. Might even be good for him. Take the pressure off. Coming up for a couple weeks knowing he'll spend the Lions' share of the year in AAA. I do hope Quero can be the next man up that we extend early. I wouldn't do it yet obviously, but if he comes back with the same defense and can hit ~.270/.330/.450...I'd gladly give him 8/50 and a couple of options with more in incentives.
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Or...were you using Baseball Reference? 2.1 WAR in '22, .9 in '23. 3.0 WAR, 1.5 WAR pace. Your Math was alright if you're using BRef...not if you're using Fangraphs. I'm not sure if one is more reliable, but Edman's been trending pretty strongly in the wrong direction whereas Cain was not. Cain was a GG CFer still playing at a very high level, Edman was a poor fielder last year with little power, didn't walk and hit for a poor average... The Dodgers also spent a billion dollars last year and are spending quite a bit again this year, so if we're talking about who drove up the prices in free agency, I'm not sure using the biggest FA contract the Brewers have ever signed is...really an accurate representation of why/how Tommy Edman's value became as inflated as it has. This is more like the Chris Taylor signing...but even there, Taylor had played better more recently than Edman. But, that's life as a small market team. Juan Soto is lining up a 500-600M(hell, maybe larger) contract and we've got Chourio locked up, hopefully we'll follow suit with Pratt and Made after they follow Chourio's performance.
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It's possible, but I don't really see the White Sox wanting Ashby/Frelick back. They're so bad and so far away from competing, I'd think they'd want the deal to start with Made/Pratt and then still add on Ashby/Frelick as guys they may later flip. I think each player has more value to the Brewers going forward than they currently have in trade value. If you're the CHW, Ashby was a guy who threw 30 good innings last year out of the pen and Frelick is a guy with a sub .700 OPS who's good in the OF but who we may not be good enough to play CF based on where we've played him. Ashby in particular I want to hold onto. I think I'd be fine letting another team take a chance on Crochet duplicating his '24 season. I get it...most people on here want Hoskins gone. I think I'm the outlier. And yes, we could use that 18M better...but that's kinda sunken expense. At this point...I think you have to pay at least half that to unload him and...again, I just think he's going to have a better year. With Ashby...it's really just how much confidence you have in him. Back in May, June...we couldn't give him away. I've always been high on Ashby, but I did start to lose a little confidence on him.
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I like Kim and Goldy. I'm not as concerned with Hoskins as others are. I think he's more likely to rebound from a career-worst season...and I really don't want to move Ashby now that he's all the way back. I think he IS a really good arm. That upper-90s (mid-90s as a starter probably) sinker, the slider, curve and change. Plus 5 more years of team control...I think he's got as much upside as any pitcher in the organization.
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I don't think that's "likely." I think it's as likely we keep him for 3 more years rather than vs trade him after this year.
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No, his post doesn't seem to suggest he's "some workhorse." He's pointing out how all starters are throwing fewer innings and how he is guessing that trend will continue. It's really pretty simple. Not that long ago, 4 years and you'd have pitchers crossing that 1000-inning mark he used. Now...180 innings and you're a workhorse. If it's not particularly noteworthy to you...ignore the note.
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Miller is a guy I'd trade just about any prospect outside my top 10(Bitonti and Payne are inside it). MLB, Williams and Mitchell+a good, but not top 10 prospect for Miller and Ryan. Dream trade scenario IMO. I'd be open to dealing Peralta at that point, but probably in another year. I think those two have #1 upside, Ashby, if the shoulder is strong as it appeared, #2-3, Woody...1-3, Misirowski could be a long man. Serve in the Hader role. Those are also two guys I'm particularly high on. And...as such, they'll likely become the 15th and 16th pitchers for the LAD, on their tax squad, only to come up when a guy getting 30M a year needs a day off so they can throw 6 shutout innings. It's really just...insane the depth they have.
