This is the closest to where I'd land at the moment, and as wildcat mentioned, Burch Smith is going to be a factor as well in some fashion. It's also not out of the realm of possibility that Nelson and/or Guerra and/or Davies wind up in AAA to begin the year. All have options remaining and Nelson still doesn't have enough service time to reject the option. In fact I'd guess at least one of them does start in AAA unless there's a rash of injuries in spring training. It's also important to remember that the Brewers are moving away from defined starter/reliever roles, so some spots in the AAA rotation may work similarly to how they do piggybacking in the lower minor leagues. Best current guess at a AAA staff, assuming Nelson/Davies/Guerra start with the big club: 3-6 inning pitchers: Zack Brown, Bubba Derby, Freddy Peralta, Burch Smith, Trey Supak, Aaron Wilkerson, one of Zach Davies/Junior Guerra/Jimmy Nelson 1-2 inning pitchers: Tristan Archer, Deolis Guerra, Jon Olczak, Jake Petricka, Miguel Sanchez, Bobby Wahl