Matt Breen

Of course they say this. The team wants maximum return for Burnes. If they aren't going to get it, they will hold on to him and see how 2024 goes - and sell at the deadline if need be. The off season is still so much in the early phase. We need to get a half dozen of the top arms off the market before people come calling - especially those who missed out on the top pitchers. The good part is the team doesn't have to sell Burnes. They still are a good club, and can run it back next year. So the club is saying 'no deal' unless someone really steps up. Just smart business.

The Brewers are at a crossroads. In 2024, the team can keep to their familiar formula and make another run at a division title - and a chance at the World Series. But such a move will have a price. Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Several key players on the team - Corbin Burnes, Adrian Houser, and Willy Adames - are free agents after the 2024 season. Devin Williams is a free agent after the 2025 season. Does the team cash in these chips while they’re still valuable and look at 2024 as a reboot? I honestly don’t think there is a wrong answer to this question. Keeping these players and running the gang back out for another year is a legitimate option. The Crew has lost Brandon Woodruff and Wade Miley but hopes for a young arm like Robert Gasser to step into the breach. And who knows Aaron Ashby's status? If he can return, he could be a boon to the staff. A rotation of Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Rea, and Gasser isn’t terrible. It’s not great either - but it has some promise. The team would have enough money to buy a back-of-the-rotation arm, maybe even try and bring back Miley. If the team did such a thing, they’d need to address a couple of holes in the lineup, specifically first and third base. Tyler Black is a prime candidate - depending on where the club sees his future on the field. But for now, in this situation, he will probably play third base. A reunion with Carlos Santana to play first base would fill out the infield at a reasonable price. The Crew would also be looking for bigger - and more productive - contributions from Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, and Turang. It’s not a stretch to think they will be better (and healthier) after a year in the Big Leagues. The question looming is, what about beyond 2024? It’s unlikely the club will re-sign Burnes or Adames. The latter is a good player but inconsistent. And spending $15-20 million a year for such a player is not something the Brewers usually do. As for Burnes, he recently said, “I think a couple of years ago, I was probably open to going and getting something done, but I think at this point, both sides know we're a year away from free agency and want to see what the market can bring.” That’s a man with a foot out the door. So, the club would be looking at filling two pitching slots, first base, and shortstop next off-season. Of course, other young players could step up - such as Jackson Chourio in the outfield and Carlos Rodriguez in the rotation. And perhaps Brice Turang improves enough to be a legit starting shortstop. Or maybe Jacob Misiorowski, Brock Wilken, and Eric Brown, Jr. make huge leaps within the system. But none of the latter three players has had much time above A ball - so we shall have to see. No matter what, the team could be woefully thin in the rotation, and infield help is a little way out. With all that in mind, the other option is to sell valuable assets that will be gone sooner than later to replenish the club with some high-upside bats and starting pitching. What follows is a rough idea of how the club could proceed. Trade Burnes to Tampa for Curtis Mead, who would immediately step into the second base slot. Mead has one of the best hit tools in the minor leagues. He is one of the top 30 or so prospects in the game. Scouts expect 15-20 home run and a high batting average. Mead’s a mediocre fielder and likely slots in at 2B long-term. The Brewers probably could extract an extra lower-level arm or two in a trade. The Rays have Isaac Paredes at 3B, Brandon Lowe at 2B, and Sandy Diaz at 1B, thus they can afford to part with Mead in exchange for a much-needed starter. Would Tampa take on Burnes' salary? Perhaps not - but we can at least try. Trade Willy Adamas to the LA Dodgers for starter Ryan Pepiot (and an extra lower-level arm or two). The Dodgers have a small stable of good looking young arms, so they should be able to part with a player such as Pepiot, who goes right into the Brewer rotation for 2024. Trade Devin Williams to Baltimore for INF Joey Ortiz and pitcher DL Hall. While Williams is not a free agent until after the 2025 season, there’s little reason to keep him if the club is throwing in the towel for 2024. Hall steps into the rotation immediately, while Ortiz (ranked 50th on MLB Pipeline) battles it out with Turang for starting shortstop rights. Both are superior defensive players, but Ortiz has had more success with the bat (although he is already 25 years old). The Orioles, by the way, have Jackson Holliday waiting in the wings to play shortstop. And Jordan Westburg looks like he's destined for second base. This leave Ortiz as infield depth - so the club is dealing from their excess depth. Trade Freddy Peralta to Minnesota for SS Brooks Lee, RHP David Festa, and RHP Marco Raya. Okay, this trade has a couple of red flags. First, should the Brewers be dealing Peralta, one of the organization’s top players? He has three years left on his very affordable contract, so would they be pulling the trigger too early on this? The answer is - maybe - but the goal is to grab another top-flight bat in the form of Brooks Lee. Lee is one of the top 20 prospects in baseball, a guy with one of the minor league’s best hit tools (similar to Curtis Mead). He is a switch hitter who best fits in at third base - where scouts say he could be a gold glove-type fielder. He may need more time at AAA, but giving him a roster spot right away isn’t out of the question. Also, he is blocked by Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. The pitchers in this deal are nothing special - but they are all right. The club could easily swap out other arms that they like better. The moves above net us two immediate starters and a few other arms that may help down the road. And they bring the club two premium bats - something the offense needs. It also clears a lot of salary off the books to allow the club to target needed players. The 2024 roster would play out as such: C - Contreras (R) 1B - Black (L) - his fringy arm plays best here 2B - Mead (R) SS - Lopez (R) / Turang (L) 3B - Lee (S) OF - Yelich (L), Mitchell (L), Frelick (L), Wiemer (R), Taylor (R) INF - Montesorio (R), Miller (R) SP - Gasser, Hall, Pepiot, Houser, Rea RP - Uribe, Milner, Peguero, Payamps, Wilson, Megill DH is handled on a rotating basis - primarily with the outfielders. I’m not counting on Ashby for anything in 2024 - so if he does help - it’s a bonus. As I said earlier, I don’t think there’s any right or wrong answer regarding a reboot. Each option has its merits. Rebooting the club probably means giving up in 2024 as the young kids get their feet wet. But doing so would give us a better chance of success post-2024. Also, the players I have targeted could easily be switched around based on availability and the Brewers' preferences. The club might prefer going after a third baseman, Coby Mayo, who is with the Orioles organization, rather than Lee. No matter your preference, the idea would be to add several quality bats and arms to help the club for the next six to seven years. Interested in building your own roster like the one in this article? Be sure to check out our easy-to-use blueprint payroll tool and build your own 2024 Brewers roster! View full article

Here ya go - Speculation Baby.

There was no way the Brewers - or any team - was going to tender Woodruff a contract in 2024. There's a very good chance he doesn't play at all next year. And then he still would be a FA after 2024. That means you'd pay him for nothing if he walked. To offer up $11-12m to a player who will likely be on the DL all or most of the year would be a terrible management decision. The Brewers - or any team they traded him to - would have signed him to a 2-year deal. They would have paid him a smaller 2024 salary and a larger one in 2025. Example: he'd get $3m in 2024 (with a bunch of incentives in case he does come back), and then $10m in 2025. But even that's a risk for a team. That's putting a lot of stock in Woodruff recovering. Woody did what's right for him. He knew no one would tender him a contract for 2024, so he just said no to any sort of extension as described above. He can still do that sort of a deal now that he's a FA - but find the team that fits him best - both financially and baseball-wise.

I'm not surprised this happened, but it saddens me. I liked Woodruff. It was fun to see him blossom into a good pitcher. Best of luck to him.

This is such a 'Brewers' type move. And I don't necessarily mean that in a good way.

Brewers reportedly talking about Brandon Woodruff with multiple teams. Woodruff underwent right shoulder surgery to repair his anterior capsule and is not expected to pitch in 2024, though he remains vocally optimistic he can return some time in the second half of the season. Any trade would likely include negotiation for option years past 2024 for this reason. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/brewers-discussing-brandon-woodruff-trades.html View full rumor

A Williams deal may depend on a couple of things: 1. Are the Brewers doing a semi-reboot in 2024 (deal Burnes, Adamas)? If so, then dealing Williams makes sense if a deal works. 2. The return. Don't deal him if the return isn't worth it. Simple. I'm not sure the Brewers even know what their plan is...

I'm skeptical we do much of anything. I expect Santana to come back. Or we get Joey Votto.

India played mostly at 3B in college and the minors. He was moved to 2B when he reached the majors since the Reds had Eugenio Suárez at 3B. Scouting reports - about his defense - coming out of college and from his time in the minors were generally solid. A good arm and average fielding - certainly enough to play 3B in the pros. Here's a quote from the 2020 MLB Pipeline scouting report: "Defensively, he's played third base almost exclusively as a pro, where his arm, footwork and range allow him to be an above-average defensive presence at the hot corner." I have no clue how he would look now. Obviously, his stint at 2B hasn't been great - so perhaps he's regressed. And I believe he's had some injuries - I think his foot - and maybe that's limited his defense.

Even better, increase payroll to $200m+. Extension for Burnes, add some big FAs.

I think it was pretty clear that Counsell saw a better situation in Chicago than Milwaukee. Higher payroll, room for growth, decent farm system, management he felt he could trust. So much just comes down to resources. He literally talked about that fact. That includes his salary, but also I'm guessing he got tired of the same dance each year as we fought to retain or acquire players. He talked about how 'healthy' the Cubs franchise is at this time. I'm wondering if he was skeptical going forward of Milwaukee's ability to compete. Just a thought. As for his comments that he 'underestimated' fan reaction to the move - that's crap. He's not stupid. He had to completely know what this would cause.

For all the consideration of a soft rebuild, the front office could double down on the existing roster and go for another division title. You could resign Santana for $6-8m for one year. Add a backup catcher or use Payton Henry, and add a free agent starter - someone on a 1-2 year deal. Miley would be great to have back. Give jobs to Black at 3B, Gasser in the rotation. Anything we get from Ashby is a plus - but I wouldn't count on him. Cut loose Rowdy. Woodruff - if he comes back, would be a lower salary in 2024 as he rehabs. You count on several of your young players to step up and improve. C - Contreras, Henry or FA backup 1B - Santana 2B - Turang SS - Adamas 3B - Black IF - Miller, Monestorio OF - Yelich, Mitchell, Wiemer, Frelick, Taylor SP - Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Rea, Gasser, FA RP - Williams, Wilson, Payamps, Milner, Peguera, Megill, Uribe DH - Rotating between players - especially the outfielders You can make some tweaks to the roster, but I don't think it changes things too much. Salaries probably total around $90m before any signings (very rough math on my part). Add in a FA starter and Santana at 1B - should be able to keep things around $110m. That's not a bad team. You're counting on some improvement from your younger hitters - and a couple of rookies in key roles. But it's interesting. If the club does poorly, the selloff could happen at the trade deadline. Won't get as much as you get now in a deal, but that's a risk you take for trying and being a playoff caliber team. I'm not arguing to do this - but just saying the 'direction' we take may be to stay the course and trot back most of our same cast.

Whatever works in the minds of the Brewer front office. He's worth a ton right now - so maybe it is the best time to deal him (assuming we are punting 2024). It would be fascinating to see the return.

I'm getting more of a feeling that a semi-tear down is coming. Here's the guess: Deal Burnes, Williams, and Adamas. Peralta could go, but with with three years of control remaining at a reasonable rates - he's a keeper and part of the future. Woodruff probably will be non-tendered or maybe traded - especially when he sees the selloff begin. I doubt Woodruff does a two-year deal as people have suggested. He's better off becoming a free agent and finding a team that will do the same thing - but a better future. And the club doesn't want to pay him $12m+ to be injured. Perhaps trade him to a team who he would agree on a new deal. But in the long run, Woody can just tell any team 'offer me Arby or let me go' - and he'll be let go. Team would trade Yelich, but I'm guessing he's hard to move. He's still a good player, but he's owed $130m+. That's hard to swallow for any team - but you never know. Team has a lot of young talent right now, and could add a few players via trades. Make 2024 about incorporating the young guys into the lineup - Black, Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Turang, Gasser, and - eventually - Quero and Chourio. I expect 2024 to be a tough year.

It will be interesting to see if a good market emerges for Burnes. I'm not sure there will as there are a lot of good arms available in FA. Because of that, I don't think you'll see much talk about Burnes until after the big names sign: Ohtani (well, not this year), Montgomery, Yamamoto, Snell, Nola, Gray, Imanaga, Rodriguez, Stroman - probably forgot a guy or two. People just won't want to give up a good prospect or two for Burnes - and then have to sign him to a new contract - when they can add a good arm in free agency for just money. So I'm guessing interest in Burnes will emerge amongst teams if they lose out on the premium starters. Of course, there's a second and third tier of starters - guys like Giolito, Lugo, Flaherty, Wacha, Maeda, Clevinger, Lorenzen, Montas and others - but the quality and health and age of these guys makes them a bit dicey. But some teams will turn to them rather than pony up a top prospect for Burnes. I'm not opposed to the team dealing Burnes. But in the end, it will be interesting to see if a market emerges that will meet what price we are looking for.

I believe someone suggested the Orioles - a deal centered around 3B/1B Coby Mayo was suggested. That would be an interesting starting spot.

As I reflect on this move, I think the disappointing thing in losing Canha is that the man got on base - a trait we sorely lacked. He had a .355 OBP last year. His career is .349, so well within what you might expect from him. Last year, only two Brewers had an OBP better than Canha's - Yelich and Contreras. It's a bit frustrating losing a player who did something we needed. I realize that his salary, age, hitting ability (beyond getting on base) and position come into play. But it's disappointing to lose someone who could really contribute. Oh well.

I never mentioned Cooper's strikeout rate - but it was an amazing 11.5%. In his prime, he was under 10%. During his amazing 1980 season, he had. 6.2% k rate. Extraordinary. 15% nowadays is considered great these days.

As a manager or GM type, it has to be tiring to be constantly battling salary limitations. Sure there are salary issues in LA or NY or wherever - but it's a different sort of thing. Guys must feel hamstrung to have half the salary of a bigger market club. They watch good players leave and get traded - because they get too expensive. While it's not impossible to win in a smaller market - it is tougher.

My guess is that Counsell was tired of managing a small market team. Every year it was about who the team was going to lose or trade or whatever. Same slog, over and over again and no end in sight. He probably liked the Cubs situation more than any other place - ability to have big payroll, solid young talent, high salary - and took it (also, it might help Chicago is not far from his home and his kids). I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs are big FA players this offseason - something they probably told Counsel they would be. The big disappointment is he knows what this means to Brewer fans. They will never forgive him. It sucks.

I think Canha would have been a nice 1B and/or DH for this club in 2024, but I understand the move. The team probably wants a 'power' bat at 1B/DH - and Canha was not that. He's a guy who will likely hit a dozen HRs and have a .250-.260 BA, and take a nice share of walks. That's not real sexy - especially for a guy at that position. I'm guessing we bring back Santana on a one-year deal for around $6-7m. Just a guess.