PeaveyFury
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Everything posted by PeaveyFury
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Honestly, if not for Giannis (which is a really big deal, I know), Hammond's drafting was horrendous.
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Another of John Hammond's picks done uncerimoniously with the team? Shocked, I am.
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I actually think that's a very interesting and possibly accurate take, turbo.
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I think they got one right and one wrong- Clement did appear to be out of bounds, and Ertz appeared to have had time to become a runner. Both highlighted two major problems the NFL has right now, though. What, exactly, is 'indisputable' evidence? They went away from that standard this year and no one understood why. And obviously the catch thing has been beaten to death. I expected both calls to go the opposite way that they did, though.
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For those that haven't yet heard, the 11th time was the charm last night and Jerry is FINALLY in the Hall of Fame!
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Sustainable success is the key, not just one year. Archer's FIP has been consistently good.
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I don't even think that's it. I truly think that Darvish wants to play for about 2 teams, and he's using the rest to drive up the price. I really don't think he wants to play in the midwest. We're probably the top offer, but I'm sure his people are shopping it to places he actually wants to play to see if they'll match.
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That's the Stearns equivalent of 'I'm not motivated to move Lyle Overbay,' I think.
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Every pitcher who's a borderline ace in his 20's and afterthought for the rest of the career is durable, until they're not. I'm taking about durability even relative to the other targets being discussed. Salazar, Cobb, Arrieta, Clevenger, deGrom, Syndergaard, Darvish etc. ALREADY haven't put up 200 IP seasons in-and-out like Archer has.
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That's why one more year is prudent. If they show minimal development and are a middling BIG team, Gard is likely gone. But if the young players increasingly displace the crappy JR class (or if one or two of the JR's actually figure out how to play 30-ish minutes of good basketball each game) and they end up in the mix for the league title and solidly back in the tourney, he should be retained and this year should be viewed for what it was- an unfortunate and perhaps overdue step back. It's all about the trend- if this is the start of multi-year crappiness, he's gone. If it's a blip, he's fine.
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Be careful, though, of just using ERA. Archer's FIP numbers the last four seasons are 3.39, 2.90, 3.81, and 3.4. You can make a valid argument that HR's would be more of an issue in Milwaukee, but that may be cancelled out to a degree by the AL/NL switch. Great K/9 and K/BB ratios, and durability that shouldn't be discounted.
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I believe Monroe signed with Boston today.
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The cost aspect is certainly fair. But the last point hits the nail on the head: What if Nelson comes back and pitches poorly, as pitchers often do after an injury? What happens if Anderson's 2.74 ERA goes back to the 4+ ERA that he had in all of his other MLB seasons? Pitching is a commodity, and having depth/excess pitching wins you titles. Rotation depth doesn't matter in the playoffs beyond the top, but you need 6-7 solid starters to make sure you get there.
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That implies that you don't believe in player development at all? They lose no significant contributors. They'll have a Naismeth/All-American candidate in Happ. Their recruiting class from 2017 had 3- four star recruits that have all shown significant promise as true freshmen. And their two starting guards have missed the last two months and almost all of conference play. Plenty of reason to think they'll get significantly better. Teams DO have to re-load every so often. We've just been so spoiled here that we aren't used to it.
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10-15 starts can make a heck of a lot of difference on a team trying to contend. Just ask the 2017 Brewers, who needed just and additional 1 or 2 games to go their way. And what about other injuries or ineffectiveness? Yes, Chacin has a large salary. He also was markably above replacement level last year for the first time since 2013. Putting even 2 of the 5 rotation spots into the hands of some combination of Chacin, Gallardo, Suter, and Woodruff doesn't seem like a plan that sets you up for long-term success next season. Factoring in that Nelson may not be effective when he first returns, and the almost certainty that someone else gets hurt, you're relying on 2 young pitchers and 2 journeymen to potentially carry a lot of weight, and that won't end well, IMO. Far more likely to succeed is a rotation of 1)FA Pitcher X 2)Archer/Other Trade Acquistion X 3)Anderson 4) Davies 5)Nelson when healthy/Chacin, with Gallardo/Suter/Woodruff in your pocket to fill in as needed.
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You need two arms if you want to bridge the gap to Nelson's return and insure yourself against an injury. You probably need 6-7 viable starters, and they only have 3 of legit quality right now, with one of them missing 1/3 or more of the season, and a lot of wildcards/flyers beyond that.
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100% sure Gard survives this year. He'll be given the chance to prove that this was a reload year and not a regression. If we look like this next year, though, he's as good as gone.
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If they win a WS no price is too high. The Cubs definitely don't mind giving up Torres. But they were a WS team prior to that move. The Chapman trade put them over the top. Are we a WS team ? Chapman was a deadline deal, so they had the luxury of knowing that with 65% of the season complete. We won't know until we even see what the opening day roster looks like. These deals now will determine whether that's even possible. But right now, I'd argue the lineup is WS caliber. They need two arms, hence this discussion, to make them legit contenders.
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Based on the most recent Archer rumors, they may want to hold onto Broxton as the possible 4th OF if both Santana AND Phillips get shipped out. Until that gets sorted out, a Corbin/Broxton deal might be a 'plan c' type trade...
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Man, I don't know if Phillips should be moved. Based on Braun (and Cain to some extent)'s injury history, a quality 4th OF is likely to be needed for reasonably significant playing time along the way. Yes, Broxton could stay and be that guy instead, but man, that seems painful. I'd do Santana/Peralta/Burnes + another bat, though, I think.
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Interesting. Almost has to be a 'do we bump up our offer or move on to the next guy'-type decision. Reports out there seem to suggest that no one other than maybe Minnesota will add the 5th year.... maybe that's the debate?
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I'm on this train too. This whole thing feels like it's about to burst. One major FA signing and it feels like stuff is going to happen left and right.
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I disagree- the goal should be to put the best 5 in the rotation. Corbin wouldn't be the splash acquisition, there will likely be another that fits that bill. But an acquisition like this to be the 3 or 4 (if/when Nelson is back and effective) that pushes out the quality of the five while giving up the sparest of spare parts is a win, IMO. And for the record, yes, Corbin's 2017 ERA+ was better than the 2018 projections of every pitcher on the staff right now, including Anderson. No comment on the validity of predictions, but take that for what it's worth.
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Where is Domingo Going?
PeaveyFury replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Both of you keep saying that you want to go back on topic, but that keeps not happening. Please stop. -
Depends on which Teheran you'd end up getting- the one that was fantastic for three years or the one that was just ok for 2 (including 2017). He's intriguing to me- only 27 and two years of control + an option. Might be a decent attempt to 'buy low' after last year and hoping he can revert to being a 3-4 WAR guy like he was in the past. Keep in mind, if they're trying to acquire two pitchers, this is likely to be the lesser of the two deals based on how HH framed it. I think the team will try for a big splash via FA or trade, and acquire a lesser type in a second deal. A lesser type doesn't have to mean 'blah,' it could be less exciting but still improve the team. Corbin (I know he's been excluded in this rumor) or Teheren could fit that bill, slotting in as the 3/4 and pushing everyone else down, making the rotation more solid.
