PeaveyFury
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Everything posted by PeaveyFury
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I think that's all fair. But, I guess my point is that if the 2020 Brewers were willing to pay 29-year old Garcia $10m that offseason coming off a 'good' year, and expected 2-2.5 WAR out of him, they're probably pretty solidly ok with the thought of paying Renfroe $7.5 million with perhaps a more realistic expectation of the same WAR. -
If the thought continues to be Garcia vs. Renfroe, there's value in questioning consistency of expected results. Renfroe has been astoundingly consistent in WAR output, while Garcia has notably done an 'every other year' thing: Renfroe 18: 2.4 WAR 19: 2.4 WAR 20: 0.0 21: 2.3 WAR Garcia: 18: 0.5 19: 2.2 20: -0.2 21: 2.9
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.....and a good segue to move the thread back on topic, since the first suggestion to do so was largely overlooked.
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Like Mertz with the trophy? rimshot. Regarding bowl selection, there USED to be a rule, which I'm almost certain is now defunct with the more fluid bowl situation due to the playoff, that the selection order was required to be set by standings, but a bowl COULD jump a team up one spot due to selection or if they didn't want the same team two consecutive years, etc. I think that went away either when the BIG split into divisions or with the playoff adoption, but it did allow for a more logical selection order and, hypothetically, more competitive bowl games.
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And sorry, I don't entirely know why this got off the rails a bit, and clearly I've contributed to such. If the conversation on this item should continue, we should split it off and revert to the Packers.
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But that single weekend can often bring in tens of millions of dollars of extra revenue, which can largely offset a large portion of cost of a stadium/arena. Also, those people shopping at the new Target in Bayshore are likely repurposing funds they were spending at the Target in Shorewood hills. Or the Wal-mart that was further away. And none of those shoppers are spending money in hotels. They're simply moving money from one retailer to another. The actual difference you see is that you added jobs, not revenue coming in from elsewhere. And, as others noted, none of their employees are paying $2 million in Wisconsin state tax like Yelich is. In short, it is estimated that Cleveland's metro area received $80 million in direct visitor spending as a result of hosting the NFL draft, and an estimated $8-10m in state & local tax revenue. How many pairs of socks do people from Madison have to buy at that Target in Bayshore to get to that revenue level?
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I actually think that this makes a STRONGER argument about the importance of the Brewers' stadium revenue, actually. Many of the studies cited above's theses revolve around the idea that if people weren't spending their money at the stadium, they'd be spending their money at the bar up the street. In the case of Miller Park, you've got people coming in from Madison/Oshkosh/where ever that not only wouldn't be spending their money at the bar up the street in Milwaukee, but they're specifically doing their spending because of the amenities AT the park and every dollar that comes from that is hypothetically a dollar that doesn't get spent in the city of Milwaukee otherwise. I do think the other item that isn't properly accounted for in these calculations are special 'bring people to the city' larger events. IE, Milwaukee doesn't host the 2002 All-star game without Miller Park, nor do the Packers end up hosting the draft without all the spending they've done surrounding the stadium. Those extraordinary events do undeniably bring money into the market that simply wouldn't be here otherwise, and that does have value to the city.
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My guess would be opposite to your guess. I'd bet that on most weekend Brewer games especially, a minimum of 40% of the attendees are from outside the metro area. Again, purely my guess. And every dollar they spend at the stadium or night they stay in an MKE hotel is a dollar that the city doesn't have without the Brewers. That also doesn't cover the impact of, say, rural Wisconsin bars' revenue during seasons. Yeah, Wisconsin is a drinking culture, but I can't imagine that you have as many rears in bar stools on a Sunday afternoon if the Brewer game isn't on. Heck, I'd be super curious to know how many STL fans stopped caring about football when the Rams left, and the resulting revenue loss from football Sundays as fans stopped caring about the league, beyond just 'game' revenue.
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Yes, it's worth noting that most of the studies linked to above are within the context of 'does the sports team justify a comical level of spending on a new stadium funded by taxpayers'. I think that if you're in a situation where the stadium is either privately funded or already in existence, the needle moves significantly the other way. I do think it's also disingenuous to lump a 'bring fans in from all over' market like Milwaukee/Green Bay in with DC, for example. Milwaukee sports brings in money from all over the state. Is it a reallocation of funds from those fans' spending on other things? Perhaps. But, they're doing their spending in Milwaukee rather than Stevens Point or Oshkosh, which is obviously a benefit to Milwaukee as a city.
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As it would be curious reading at a minimum, do you have links to some of these 'debunking' stories?
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Odd, as the LV bowl is definitely one rung up.
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That made my bye week Sunday….
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Everyone talks about Campbell with reverence because of his personality, but maybe he’s actually a lousy head coach…..
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More. If only for the fact that they’re playing in a place that people actually want to go to.
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Wisconsin Basketball Thread 2021-2022
PeaveyFury replied to Cool Hand Lucroy's topic in Other Sports
Mark Turgeon out at Maryland, in a bit of a shocker. Rough year last year, but 226-116 overall there in 10+ seasons…. -
This is a really good point as well. Even if Renfroe is simply a wash vs. JBJ contract-wise, it opens up the possibility of an addition via a backloaded contract (or someone who was similarly willing to take a deferral). After all, JBJ only actually made $3.5 million last year, so it's now very possible the Brewers could do something similar with hopefully far better results than that was.
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I don't think anyone thinks that. But saving a couple million this year and having a better player in Renfroe on the team, and then next year having Renfroe instead of nothing for the buyout of JBJ certainly doesn't hurt. If they were going to figure out a way to get a big bat with JBJ and his contract on the books, then they will still be able to after this move. And additionally they have Renfroe on the field instead of JBJ. Just doesn't seem to be much of a downside to all of it in the short term. Well, hopefully Renfroe doesn't take the place of that big bat, and that is what worries me... Stearns' atypically candid comments after the deal yesterday suggest that isn't the case, for what it's worth.
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It's only two million if you place it directly vs. JBJ's contract. The assumption is probably better that they would have used Garcia's salary money from last year to sign his replacement, and then STILL had JBJ's contract to deal with. Now, they've essentially replaced Garcia and probably still have 7-10 million to use because of getting rid of JBJ. EDIT: I think OSS said what I was trying to say better than I did while I was posting this.
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This is definitely right. But, they cleared a bad contract to essentially eliminate the need to acquire a specific replacement for Garcia's output. With the excess cash, they can now acquire a bat as an addition that they wouldn't have been able to before.
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His WAR was ~2.5 in three of the last four seasons. The fourth was the COVID-shortened and all-around weird 2020 season, as you noted. 2020 appears to be the clear outlier, while 2.5 would be a realistic expectation.
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I'm not sure you can say that authoritatively. They freed up 9-10 million (again pending a closer look on my end on the deferrals), which is basically what got them Wong last year, who WAS an impact player.
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Yeah, they basically replaced Avi's 'good year' production at a fraction of the cost of what Avi was paid last year BEFORE his big money FA contract. In the process, they moved JBJ's contract as well. It's a very solid trade.
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He’s been a 2.5 WAR player in all three of the most recent full seasons. If he does that in 2022, which is reasonable to expect, he’ll be a solid contributor, acquired for a player who was not.
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Vogelbach and Curtiss non tendered
PeaveyFury replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Correct yes, but 'laughed at' is a bit dramatic. -
Urban Meyer is going to fail his way out of the NFL and into that Notre Dame job, isn’t he?
