adambr2

The Isan Diaz hype train rolls on.

Villar needs this season to end. He is in a deep slump.

I don't think anyone is suggesting getting rid of Perez (without digging too deep in the thread ), but simply calling him a quality backup rather than a starter type. I see him as a perfect fit for the role he occupies currently, a versatile supersub who can play anywhere and should get 3-4 starts a week, more when injuries hit.

It would be fun to see Brinson get his feet wet here for a week before the season ends, but I'm guessing if they were going to go that route they would have already done it when Broxton got hurt.

Being within 12 games of the Wild Card is having the playoffs right there for you?

Tough to get Votto out when he gets 4 strikes to play with. What a terrible call. Just let the machines take over already.

I know it's their job, but sometimes I wonder why reporters even bother to ask Mark A. these questions, when they know he's got to give the customary non-answer. I'd say his reaction this time makes it a near certainty, with the reaction to trading Lucroy and Braun back in June when he said the talk of trading Lucroy and Braun was just 'much ado about nothing ' and 'not actively shopping either of these guys.'

Yeah, to me, when an owner is asked if a player will be back and says, 'I hope so,' I read that to be, 'Nope.' I agree it's tough to put a value on Puig. To throw out a hypothetical, if we could get one of either Bellinger or DeLeon with Puig, McCarthy, and one of either Willie Calhoun or Yadier Alvarez, for Ryan Braun and Scooter Gennett, I'd dance in the street. Only caveat being I'd want to trade either McCarthy or Garza before next season.

Nice read. Anderson gets overlooked, but he is a guy under control for 4 more years at a reasonable cost, and is effectively a league average starter. If he ends up being our #5 starter the next 4 years, we should be comfortable with that knowing we could do a lot worse. Much has been made of Jean Segura's year, and rightfully so, he's doing great, but hey, out of the deal we got a vet that we flipped again, a league average starting pitcher who is inexpensive, and a top 100 prospect. I'd say the deal worked out for everyone so far.

Yeah its been pretty remarkable. To think that we would even be debating whether him or the 15th best prospect in baseball, who happens to have a top notch CF glove, which one will be our CF of the future, would have been unthinkable 2 months ago.

I completely agree on Perez. He profiles as a fantastic super sub IMO and that's what his value is to us. As an every day starter at any position we can do better.

I haven't dove too deep into this kind of statistica analysis, but I thought it had pretty much been proven over time that OBP is considerably more important/valuable than SLG.

They were probably thinking that he was a career below replacement level player and if he signed elsewhere, he signed elsewhere.

Broxton is under team control through I believe 2022. I'm always open to the idea of trading anyone but if he does turn out to be a 20 HR/50 SB player with top tier defense that he was looking like in the 2nd half, you need an amazing return to deal him after 2017. Like, better than the Gomez or Lucroy returns. You're most likely never going to see a Gomez/Lucroy return for Broxton (definitely not a Lucroy). Lucroy is a 2x AS and top 3-5 catcher in MLB. Gomez is a 2x AS with a GG in CF. Broxton is 27 next May and only has 1.5 months of quality MLB production and will never win a GG and most likely will never be an AS. I like Broxton, always have since the day of the trade and even more when I saw him in ST. The reality is he's not staying in CF because Brinson is taking that spot. And Santana/Phillips can put up similar or better numbers (outside of SBs) while playing solid defense in their corner spots having strong arms (Phillips with a plus arm). I'll take the guys who are 2-4yrs younger with higher ceilings. Then in 1-2yrs after that you're dealing with Ray and Clark not to mention anyone else acquired somehow. For clarification purposes, I would have no issue trading Santana and keeping Broxton. I just think you'll get a fine return from power/speed CF while being able to still have corners who are young and talented. All right, well first of all, I did clarify that I said expecting that kind of return on Broxton is dependent on him turning into that 20/50 plus defense CFer. So at that point, he wouldn't have a month and a half of solid MLB production. A 20/50 plus defense centerfielder is extremely valuable. That's Gomez production at his peak, and we didn't even trade him at his best. Secondly, value is based on more than past production, it's also based on age, control, and cost. If you're going to trade away a 27 year old 20/50 centerfielder with 5 cost control years left, you had better get tremendous value for it, and multiple top prospects. So the only question to me is, was his 143 ABs post AS break a true breakout, or just an aberration? Keon isn't some Kirk Nieuwenhuis type just having a nice little run. He has the athletic ability and upside to back up that type of sustained production. I know 20/50 seems like an insanely optimistic projection for him, but his post AS break run until his injury exceeded that mark projected for an entire season. That being said, I realize it's still an if -- 143 ABs isn't a large enough sample to make any definite conclusions. But IF he is indeed that type of player, to me, he's definitely worth that type of return, even after just doing it in 2017, hypothetically. If not, you don't trade him.

I didn't say Colorado Springs ruined Hader, just Lopez. But I do stand by that. No, FB control can't be blamed on Colorado Springs air. But lack I of break on a CB can. And once the cycle begins, and confidence is lost, it can lead to other problems. Just because higher results at Colorado Springs is expected doesn't mean it doesn't get in a pitcher's head anyway.

If you want to see how Colorado Springs can ruin a pitching prospect, look no further than Jorge Lopez. Hard to believe this was a borderline top 50 guy last year, now he's an afterthought. Hader was untouchable in Biloxi, but struggled in Colorado Springs. This is a very serious problem and needs to be addressed immediately. Not in 2 years.

So we'd lose tiebreaker to the Phillies and A's and win with the Rays or Angels. Looks like our draft floor is about 10th and ceiling 7th. 4th if we really really hit a bad streak before the end of the season.

Broxton is under team control through I believe 2022. I'm always open to the idea of trading anyone but if he does turn out to be a 20 HR/50 SB player with top tier defense that he was looking like in the 2nd half, you need an amazing return to deal him after 2017. Like, better than the Gomez or Lucroy returns.

But we have no idea if Braun will be a .900 OPS player in 2-3 years. None. He may have value, and it MAY be close to the same, and it also MAY be a lot less, but it's almost surely not going to be more than it is now. If Braun right now is not worth a Urias (he's not), or a De Leon (best case scenario, IMO), he's almost certainly not going to be worth one in 2 years. Beltran is Beltran and Braun is Braun. His situation, like the many other comparable both ways, guarantees us nothing. You're overrating Tate still by the way. He's not even on Top 100 lists anymore, and wasn't at midseason. Both Brinson and Ortiz were rated me highly when we traded Lucroy. Tate is certainly not a better return than Brinson, Ortiz, and Lindell. I know how highly regarded he was coming into this season, but things change, and his stock has fallen a great deal. Again, that's why he was available for Beltran. Had he put together a great season and moved up into the top 20, he wouldn't have been.

Here we go again with the numerous comparisons, when it has been clearly demonstrated that there are plenty of comparable players on both sides of the 'decline' argument, and it's completely impossible to say with certainty which way Braun will go? First of all Braun to Beltran is a complete apples to oranges comparison. Beltran is a classic 'rental' player to whom the Rangers have zero commitment to after this year. His sole purpose to the Rangers is to help them win a World Series this year, nothing further. Braun is a 4 year commitment for almost 9 figures. Secondly, if you want to try to even predict whether Ryan Braun will be in the league, let alone productive at age 39, by all means go for it. And to call a guy who had an .890 OPS when he was traded 'not wholly productive' is just flat out making stuff up. Tate, by the way, was only available because he has had a pretty terrible season in A ball and has seen his stock fall since spring training. Finally, there are no Braun 'haters' on this board and no one has suggested he be traded for peanuts; by definition of the thread title, this IS a discussion/debate on what his value exactly is. Do you really want to have typed that silly and childish last sentence?

Well, if we're going to go on a losing streak before the end of the season, let's do it right. Only a few games out of the #6 draft spot.

Starting the season, Jimmy Nelson had 8 quality starts in his first 11 starts. Since then, he has 3 in his last 20.

Who would have thought back in June that Nelson would end up as our worst starter this year?

Yeah, I'm not too worried about Villar. He's never played this much in a season and I think he's just worn out like you said. Still, 16+ HR, .800+ OPS, and presumably, the stolen base title, not too shabby for an age 25 season.

The one thing I don't want to see us do again is purge our farm. Situationally, there will still be opportunities that come up, like last year with Villar. But as a general rule I hope we become more conservative about trading our prospects. Mod note: Deleted double post