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adambr2

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Everything posted by adambr2

  1. That's great. ..'legit ' prospects is a very broad definition, though, as I think we learned in the Lucroy trade. The PTBNL was described as on the level of Brinson and Ortiz, which I think led many to be disappointed when it was Ryan Cordell. So while I think legit prospects could mean about anything, not necessarily top 100 guys, it makes me excited about the possibilities and I'd love to be wrong about DeLeon being on the table.
  2. Braun is a pretty unique case, and I think his value is tough to pin down. Do I think he would do better than 4/76 if he were a free agent now? Probably, but the market is really hard to predict. Plenty of guys have turned down good offers from their teams to test the market only to come crawling back when the market didn't respond. A case can be made for Braun having a lot of value, and yet at the same time he's got a few unique factors working against him. In the end, I think he'll be traded, and if Puig indeed comes to the Brewers, I stand by my belief that he'll be the main piece, and any other prospects included will be lower level, perhaps one very low top 100 at best.
  3. I guess I don't get too riled up about strikeouts. Is a player better if he gets conservative with 2 strikes and grounds out instead? Not if there is someone on first. So let's take an example I have seen our players do all year. Chris Carter doing what feels like on a weekly basis: Chris Carter walks up to the plate with a man on third just one out....annnnnnnnd strikeout. Whoops wish he could have grounded out or hit a fly ball to score a run. Instead scoreless inning in the end. I know people in the game threads hate when we try to play small ball getting a guy over to third with one out. They say it never works for us this year. Reason being is because this team strikes out so much no one ever actually puts the ball in play. An out is not just an out. Base runners are not just base runners. Such comments make me want to cringe. They are all not created equal. Or another example, Ryan Braun comes up with 1 out and the bases loaded, and in scenario 1 he strikes out, and then Perez hits a grand slam. In scenario 2, he grounds into a double play and no batter comes up after. Obviously that's the most extreme example, but there are plenty of examples in between of instances where outs in play aren't better, and there's plenty of outs in play with runners on that aren't even productive. Statistically there's little better/worse between a strikeout and out in play.
  4. I think it's been pretty much statistically proven that strikeouts are, if at all, only very slightly worse than any other out, on the average. 'Productive' outs as I recall are almost completely cancelled out by double plays. Sounds like my research project for today.
  5. Had Lucroy not rejected the trade to the Indians, we would have received no prospects for him rated higher than Bickford at the time, including Mejia. Every situation is different and unique. You can't just look at it as 'Well look who we got for this reliever, so we should be able to demand even more for Braun.'
  6. It's not an apples to apples comparison. The age, price, injury, scandal history, and control are different, and most importantly, it's an entirely different position and role on the team, and the trade market for relievers was out of this world at the deadline. So I guess if you want to ask the question of would the Giants have given us Bickford and Susac for Braun without requiring us to take on any salary, then I guess the answer is yes, Smith did have more value.
  7. He is dead weight if we're talking involving Ryan Braun. The value I'd put on him for a trade would be Kirk N., Ramon Flores, Michael Reed, Kyle Wren, and Tyrone Taylor. Dodgers take your choice. Of course LA pulled Puig from waivers with Milwaukee's claim, give a small chance that there is a trade possibility and find out what you can get in return. Saying Puig is batting well in small sample, he's 5 for 18 3HRs. Against SD, Arz, Mia, and at Yankees. HRs of Christian Friedlich, Robby Ray, 8th inning bullpen of Yankees named James Pazos with LA up 6-2 his 2nd appearance on the season. For this September, LA plays just SF and those Yankees in NY of teams above .500. 9games total. Otherwise, it's SD, Arz, Col. Which must be the easiest September schedule in Baseball. Ha, come on now, if Puig could have been had for any of those guys, he'd be a Brewer. If the Dodgers wouldn't let us take his contract for free, do you really think Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Ramon Flores would have tipped the scales? I have no idea what you're saying with that second paragraph, since they didn't pull him back until AFTER the trade talk was dead. Since we couldn't work out a deal they still could have let us take his contract. Again, if he WERE dead weight, that's exactly what they would have done.
  8. You are delusional if you think Ryan Braun and his contract will be bringing back top quality pitching. Ha except LA in the Puig/McCarthy is taking 40million off of Braun's contract. Sure better be a top pitching prospect or hitter coming back. Yadier Alvarez cost 32million. Yusniel Diaz cost 31million. Better believe taking a 78million contract for 4years and reducing it to 36million is worth a top pitching prospect. Nevermind getting rid of the mistakes named Puig and McCarthy who at this point is worse than Matt Garza. MrTPlush said: Then why is he still a Brewer? Why are we needing to pick up $30mil+ in salary? Why does no one want him for just the contract no prospects? It actually sounds like the total opposite is true. Not sure how people think Braun still has tons of value and has a team friendly contract. Neither is very accurate. Next response by MrTPlush That is great and all but he already has power to block most trades. The only teams not on his no trade list that are even possible landing spots are the Dodgers and a long shot the Giants. If a trade doesn't work out with the Dodgers he might as well have 10-5 rights. I am simply saying a trade may not materialize period if the Dodgers go a different route which is a very possible thing. I don't think he is all but gone as the off season will give them many other good options. You seem to understand, but don't. He has the power to block the trades to all but 6teams. Atlanta I understood in an article was blocked by Braun in a claim/trade. Now put Arizona, San Diego, LA Angels, and Miami as 4 of those 6 teams and why bother claiming him this season? None are in the Playoff picture. This leaves 2 teams and 1 of them claimed and tried to trade for Braun. San Fran, well they traded Bickford and Susac. I'd find it hard for Milwaukee to see any ideal prospect to gain worthy of Braun. The two teams had discussions before the deadline so they knew what Braun's value was to Stearns to just know. If we claimed him, He's pulled back and are inability to please Stearns' demands ends all there is to be discussed. What purpose is it of the other 23 teams to claim Braun, when they are on his no trade clause? I feel Jose De Leon was the prospect piece unable to agree upon. This was a prospect pitcher who with Hill, Kazmir, and Kershaw had the door open to be called up but wasn't before September. I think his possible involvement in the trade is why he was kept down. You act like Puig is just dead weight. If he was, the Dodgers would have let us take the contract. Puig is a significant acquisition in this deal. DeLeon in my opinion is not a realistic target for Braun. I believe the two prospects were much lower level, Adam Lind type return prospects, perhaps a bit more, like a Marcos Diplan. I think Puig would have been the biggest piece in the deal. De Leon not being promoted til September had a lot more to do with him not being on their 40 man roster than anything else.
  9. The A's may very well trade Davis this offseason, so for once we may actually get an answer to our hypothetical question. Interesting to see Davis actually has a lower OPS+ (118 vs. 123 last year). I'm not saying he's a bad player, but I just don't see how anyone can conclude his value has risen significantly in the last year. Segura, yes. Davis, no. I don't think you can fool GM's with old school statistics anymore, GMs have more data and are more in times than decades ago.
  10. For as much as people say Santana has struggled this year, despite his 'struggles' and injuries, he's still OPS'ing around .800.
  11. He was on a tear before being sent down. Everyone knows Puig has the skills to be great...honestly someone would have to be delusional to not see it. That being said its hard to harness that when you are being an idiot on a weekly basis ticking everyone off. The Dodgers sent him down because they can't stand Puig's attitude etc. The reports on his character have been much more positive since the beginning of August, as well. Of course, that may just be the Dodgers saying what they need to say to try to protect his trade value.
  12. About time we've seen a take on it like that, everything I read the entire season from every local rag trade proposal for Braun had us giving him up for essentially nothing or a bad contract like Sandoval and basically implied that we were just lucky they were willing to take Braun off our hands.
  13. He's been on a tear since he came back up to MLB. I'm actually a little concerned the Dodgers are going to get cold feet on this if he keeps it up.
  14. Maybe someone with better understanding of defensive metrics can answer this, but does Broxton profile as an 'elite' glove in CF going forward? Or should I ask, who would be the better CF between Broxton and Brinson.
  15. Listening on the radio, pet peeve for Jeff: Game did not start at 7:10 Eastern 'standard' time. 'Standard' time refers to the time of year when daylight savings time is not in effect, or in an area where it is not used. It is not just a generic enhancer for 'Central time' or 'Eastern time.'
  16. I have a hard time seeing Diplan making it. I think he was on track to but then someone struggled at Brevard, which I think will keep him out. I think he's probably a borderline top 150 guy. Good thing is the K rate was still up there in Brevard and a strong start next season should put him in midseason consideration.
  17. I've only been to Cubs' boards a few times this year, but from what I've seen, yeah, they hate his guts.
  18. For as good of a reputation as Joyce has as an MLB umpire, he has been at the front and center of some really inexplicably bad calls.
  19. I'm going to hand it to Counsell today. It seems like he's finally starting to warm up to the idea in the last week or so of not forcing Nieuwenhuis in the lineup vs RHP.
  20. Actually they would need to take on McCarthy AND Yasiel Puig (baggage and contract, which any team could have claimed off waivers BTW) just to land a couple of mid-level prospects. If the Brewers could have traded Braun by himself for a top pitching prospect at any point this season, they would have done it in a heartbeat. None was offered. Hence, Braun is still a Brewer. Which makes all the Brewer fans that overrate him happy, it seems. I don't think it's accurate to describe Puig's value as a guy who 'any team could have just claimed off waivers.' Claimed yes, obtained, no. If you describe Puig that way, you have to describe Braun that way. If Puig could have been obtained free and clear off waivers, he'd be a Brewer now. I agree with the first part of your post, however. Ryan Braun is only worth what the trade market says he is. We can cite his numbers, credentials, and contract til we're blue in the face, but if no one will give us a top pitching prospect for him, he's not worth one.
  21. Diaz in the top 50? I love the guy, but that seems overly optimistic to me. That would be great, though. I suppose his preseason value is still TBD depending on how he does in the Fall league.
  22. Still won't admit to the approach Counsell has take with playing time for our outfielders? They've all have flashes of success and done very well with how he's managed them. Young and older. No, because I don't agree that Broxton and Santana are only having success because Nieuwenhuis is constantly spelling them. These guys are young and (now) healthy, and don't need regular off days. I have no idea how you came up with the correlation that their success must be predicated on plenty of rest days. Villar looks just fine this year playing every day.
  23. They're going to have to add some salary to trade Braun no matter what. May as well at least get a player in return rather than just paying Braun to play elsewhere. I also don't really agree on Puig's lack of value. Coming into 2015 this guy had looked like an MVP candidate. He's obviously struggled since, but that'd be a lot more of a concern if he was 35 than the 25 he actually is. There are a lot of ways to obtain value in a trade, a buy low like this is potentially one. We need to be creative and open to all avenues of improvement. Much as we'd all like to trade Braun free and clear for a couple top 50 prospects and be done with it, that isn't going to happen.
  24. Neon Keon needs to be playing every day when healthy .
  25. I like it, I think Villar is the near future at 2nd for the Brewers, at least for a few years before Diaz arrives.
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