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adambr2

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Everything posted by adambr2

  1. adambr2
    Puig=2years of team control. Braun=4years+1option year of team control. Yes I'd take Braun's 4/80 over Puig's 2/16.45 contract and control. There's the deferred payments and already the payment of Braun's signing bonus which for Milwaukee means less than 4/80 impact. The contract on Braun lessens after two seasons so if he production reduces even to an .800 OPS vs .900 he's not grossly making too much money for the production. 4years/80 for other teams, sure can be a risk, but in 2seasons 2/34million isn't as bad a risk should you convince Braun to accept a trade. Maybe we're not as close to contending(Mets-itis of TJs) and Braun in twilight of career seeks out a contender his last 2 seasons+ potential option season. So while he'll have 10-5 rights, he's open to a trade to a contender. Whatever happens, after 2018 Braun can still be traded. If you're going to hold onto Braun for 2 more years, you might as well hold onto him for 4 and hope for the best. If he's still producing, by then we should be close to contention and want to keep him anyway. If he's not, he won't be worth nearly as much anyway. By waiting 2 more years on Braun, you're risking injury, decline, and Braun gaining more leverage through 10/5 rights. Doesn't make much sense to me. I have a hard time seeing his value in the next 4 years being much if any higher than it is now, but I could see it getting a lot, lot lower.
  2. adambr2
    Interesting that Spotrac lists Puig as a free agent in 2020 after a 2019 arbitration year, rotoworld just says he's a FA in 2019.
  3. adambr2
    I do believe Braun will be .900 OPS guy the next couple seasons and an .850 OPS the two seasons after that. He'll need the occasional day off and that diminishes his impact somewhat but I just don't understand the thinking that trading him somehow speeds up the rebuild. Taking his presence out of the lineup sets back the rebuild. This isn't the Lucroy situation. Lucroy's value beyond 2017 was going to be the draft pick compensation they'd receive. Still and all I do wonder what this team would have looked like with Braun, Lucroy, and Davis in the middle of the lineup heading into 2017 with guys like Villar, Perez, Broxton, Carter around them. That's a wild card contender with average pitching. Sounds basically like exactly the strategy we were trying to employ from 2012-early 2015. Also, in my opinion the purpose of trading Braun is not to accelerate the rebuild. I still say we're looking at 2019, whether Braun is traded or not. The purpose is to continually build a lasting foundation for the future. I don't think the end goal here is to open a window of contention and have a few years with a shot. In my opinion under Stearns trade like this can be expected even WHEN we are contending.
  4. adambr2
    The Davis' angst is really overblown. Davis' entire body of work, even with his 40 HRs, is still a mild, if any, upgrade from his replacements this year. If I had to take only Davis or Keon Broxton going forward in the OF, I'd take Broxton 10 times out of 10. Davis had no place in our future, and now we really have no room for him. We got what was considered a borderline top 100 prospect for him at the time and one of the top catching prospects in the minors, how much more do you really think he is worth now? And even if you want to argue Stearns lost the Davis trade, which is fine, are you really expecting a 100% success rate on his deals? The other GM is also trying to win his trades. He obviously knocked the Villar and Broxton trades out of the park, so even if you want to chalk the Davis one up as a loss, can you name another trade that Stearns has actually lost? And please don't say Segura, with what Isan Diaz has been doing and going to be shooting up on top prospects lists this year. That one is still TBD.
  5. adambr2
    Depends on many factors. Are we going to be competitive in the next 3-4 years anyway? Lots can still change but right now I'd still peg 2019 as the next real window of contention opening up. So that's already year 3. Even if you think he can maintain a .900 OPS for that long, is it worth hanging onto him for that one useful season? Another factor is how well the outfielders you have in your system are progressing. As long as Braun is here, he IS blocking them. More factors -- what are you doing with the money you save? And of course, what kind of prospects are you getting back? Finally, everyone is excited about what Braun is doing, so I'd caution that his last 3 OPS's were .854, .777, and .869 in a shortened season. So..how sure are you? Even if you think his numbers were down because of injuries, there's certainly no way to guarantee that he can avoid that in the future, especially as he ages. Risk/reward assessment is Stearn's job here, but its always better to sell a year too early than a year too late. There's a number of ways this could go, but if next year he's battling injuries and OPSing. 785, a lot of people will be asking why we didn't sell.
  6. adambr2
    Braun will have no-trade protection for all teams May 2017. I assume he might want a little something to give that up, even if it was to someone on the west coast or the Marlins. Is it definitely May? I always assumed his 65 day suspension doesn't count as service time. That would put the 10/5 pretty close to the trade deadline next year.
  7. adambr2
    Important thing is that he is fully healthy for next season. This one is essentially over anyway. Get well soon Keon.
  8. adambr2
    No TV. AKA 'Why does my cable/satellite service even carry WGN anymore?' EDIT: I stand corrected, it's on MLB Network.
  9. adambr2
    I guess it could work if you have pretty equally talented starters in your rotation, and I do believe in the importance of fresh arms, but that extra roster spot is problematic. Personally I prefer shorter starts and an 8 man bullpen.
  10. adambr2
    That's how I read it on Susac too. He's the top catcher in our system, young and controllable, with decent upside. 'Not going anywhere' doesn't imply that he's a star or untradeable, just that he's not much of a fit for a trade right now. Same with guys like Zach Davies, Jacob Barnes, etc.
  11. adambr2
    Contact and being too selective are to issues with him. Striking out a lot is not directly collated with plate discipline. Chris Carter has outstanding plate discipline, however he simple just can't make enough contact. He K's a ton. Since trade, I have preached Corey Hart Jr. May have an all-star year or two but most likely a reliable top of the order MLB OF. They have very similar body and tools outside of Hart being able to run a little more. Exactly. ..plate discipline is not synonymous with striking out less. Adam Dunn struck out more than anyone but had good plate discipline. You can also have terrible plate discipline and hardly ever strike out. (Johnny Estrada)
  12. adambr2
    I agree with most of this, so I'll just mention where I disagree. Nieuwenhuis I believe is arbitration eligible which would make him a non-tender candidate. If he was 0-3 I'd agree with the premise. Same with Maldonado. No real reason to tender these guys IMO. Wily Peralta is an interesting case. I really don't think he's worthy of a raise from his $2.8M salary. On the other hand, he's looked a lot better lately and so if he's figured it out again, you'd hate to lose him for nothing. When he got sent down I figured he was a non-tender candidate but now I would guess he'll be back in arbitration for about $3M. Nelson. ..I really don't know. He won't be non-tendered, but I can't imagine his trade value is enough to justify trading him after this season. Scooter seems about right, but I don't think Guerra has that strong of a chance at leaving. I think we'd have to be blown away.
  13. adambr2
    Garza for sure if you can get anything for him or just get someone to take most of his salary. Guerra. ..maybe. But with how good of a year he's had and the control he has left, it would take a great return. Braun will likely be traded, and Carter is another one where the price needs to be right. I would definitely trade Scooter and move Villar to 2nd full time next year. Someone had suggested he could be part of a Braun to Dodgers deal, and I think that makes sense. Pretty much any arbitration or later bullpen pieces are available for the right price. Thornburg would take a king's ransom though - they would likely do better for him at the deadline next year.
  14. adambr2
    I would love this solution, it makes perfect sense as far as I'm concerned to the point of wondering, 'Why the hell don't we do this and get out of Colorado Springs already??' But I won't pretend to know or understand the logistics involved.
  15. adambr2
    Anyone who thought we were getting a prospect similar to Brinson/Ortiz as the PTBNL missed taking their grain of salt somewhere along the line as there were no prospects left in the TEX system who were similar to Brinson/Ortiz. Mendez was right there.
  16. adambr2
    Peace out, Cub fans. Tonight ain't the night.
  17. adambr2
    Leadoff walk late in a 2 run game, that's the ticket.
  18. adambr2
    Whoever makes these calls in New York, they are absolute jokes. I picture them with a bottle of tequila and a magic 8 ball. There's no such thing as 'indisputable evidence' to them. It's just 'whatever we think.'
  19. adambr2
    It'll be very intriguing seeing what they do next season. If you couple that with a healthy season from Santana and a full season of Arcia, maybe losing Braun won't sting as badly. Losing Braun is going to sting no matter what. I shudder at the thought. Going to lose him to old age or trade eventually. May as well be to trade.
  20. adambr2
    Jimmy Nelson, king of allowing the man on 3rd to score with 2 out.
  21. adambr2
    If you project Broxton's numbers out to a full season of PAs he's a 25 HR/60 SB player. That's probably too optimistic, but 20/50 sounds about right. To think we acquired a 20/50 SS and 20/50 CF in the offseason for basically nothing? Impressive.
  22. adambr2
    Totally expected to follow up that mistake with Nelson giving up a big fly.
  23. adambr2
    Nice play Perez.
  24. adambr2
    Of course we play 2 versus the Cubs before the Cardinals play again. So we'd need to win 2 to avoid them clinching with a win over us and hope the Cardinals lose tomorrow night to finish it.
  25. adambr2
    Most likely would not be anyone who was on the 40 man roster at the time, since they would have to clear waivers. DeLeon wasn't at the time, but obviously Urias was, not that he would have ever been in the discussion.
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