And lets not mention the chances him swinging away doesnt move a runner or the chances he grounds into a gidp. Both of those take down our run scoring chances as well. Which is the exact reason the odds go up 6.6% You cant calculate down the odds of bunting and pretend there are no negative effects involved with him swinging away. The odds of a gidp with a swing away are higher. Kills run expectancy. The odds of not advancing the runners is more as well. Or at least going 1st and 3rd 1 out which is also worse. This 25 to 35% chance we drop 27% lower on run expectancy also exists at a higher rate for swing away in pop outs, ks, ground outs where the runners dont advance. You cant compare outcomes if you project one out and leave the other in its current form. You are more likely to move the runners, increase your likelihood of scoring by 6.6% and lower your chances of disaster with a bunt play... you are more likely to score many runs with the swing away. That's the trade off... Game was tied 1-1. You play to take the lead. Winning by 1 is no different than winning by 3 at the end of the day. If we were down 1... I hear the weight of bigger inning thinking. But 1 run dramatically increase our chances to win that game. Especially at 1-1. Just gonna leave this here: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/re24/ If you truly think Pina's ability to bunt (he can't) trumps his ability to GIDP, Pop out, K, etc (he doesn't do any of those any more often than the MLB average) you cannot just randomly make assumptions to further your argument.