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owbc

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Everything posted by owbc

  1. owbc
    Essentially we're predicting the first half of the season, as well as any in-season moves based on that prediction, with some assumptions about how much spending money is available to make those moves. The statistical model is going to be better at predicting the first few months than the rest of the season because it doesn't know anything else. With that in mind, the Reds are clearly all-in. The Cardinals and Cubs both appear to be conscious of their budget and haven't done much to warrant different projections from 2019. If you take the Brewers at face value they are a sub-.500 roster, but if you believe in their approach then there is a ton of upside. The Pirates are free wins for everyone else. I think the Reds' approach is terrible in the long run but it's hard to deny that 2020 will probably be a good year for them. I am projecting them to make some mid-season moves to boost their win total into the 90s. I also buy the Brewers' upside and expect additional mid-season moves. I expect the Cubs to be sellers at the deadline. CIN 94 MKE 88 STL 85 CHC 77 PIT 59
  2. owbc
    I'm confused, didn't most of this board agree that we hated the current Wild Card format after what happened to us last October? I'm in favor of more playoffs. Postseason baseball is awesome. I'm in favor of baseball innovating. But again, as the reaction to this announcement shows, fans do not trust Manfred and his track record suggests that he is willing to push for changes without any outreach to the players/fans. The fact that we're hearing about this means he has already decided what he wants to do and instead of getting everyone excited about changes (or opening up a debate to what might be the best way of doing it) he's just going to do it. C'mon, just set up a committee or something to at least give the appearance of some thought being put into these changes?
  3. owbc
    One thing to note is that #9 hitters suck. Only 4 teams had an OPS above .700 in the 9-spot last year. The reality is that the DH would replace a .550 OPS spot (starting pitcher+pinch hitters) with a .650 OPS (worst hitter in lineup). It's not that much of an improvement. One thing is that the Brewers could have held onto Domingo Santana which would have been immensely useful in 2019.
  4. owbc
    In the era of 3TO baseball there isn't any reason for pitchers to be attempting to hit anymore. Even their sacrifice bunts provide little to no value. I don't necessarily agree with it but it's clear that the game has decided to go in that direction so they may as well get it over with.
  5. owbc
    They might actually. They just inked a new tv deal. It's fairly refreshing to see a team ink a new tv deal or bring in a source of revenue, and immediately make it noticed on the MLB payroll. I'm not trying to correlate this in any way to the Brewers, it's generally nice to see though. The problem is they would have to significantly increase payroll or have some major success with prospects to maintain the current level of talent, especially in 2022-2023 when Votto is still owed $25M/year. After Castellanos goes on the books they will have approximately the same dollar amount committed to 2022 as the Yankees (~$85 million). The Brewers will face the same challenge with Lorenzo Cain in 2021 and 2022 if he can not produce enough to be an everyday player. Additional money will have to be spent on top of the highest salary on the team to fill space in CF.
  6. owbc
    The Reds will probably be very good in 2020 but they do not have the budget to sustain this over the long haul. From the Brewers' perspective this is very good, less competition for 2021 and 2022 free agents. Maybe it works out and the Reds have a deep postseason run this year before their aging/expensive roster needs to be blown up. But this would be far from the first time that a team with a brief window and a ton of attention/pressure to win comes up short. It will be fascinating to watch it play out.
  7. owbc
    The difference between NBA and NFL culture is fascinating and the "superstars rule the game and dictate the game" comment gets right to the heart of it. Mark Attanasio should be MLB commissioner. No MLB owner has ever completely turned around every aspect of a franchise the way he has and sustained it for over a decade.
  8. owbc
    At least from my (millennial) perspective the NFL culture is far more toxic than the NBA. The top NBA stars (e.g. LeBron, Steph Curry) are ideal role models and yet followed the corporate script when the China scandal threatened to cause problems. Meanwhile the NFL has been through scandal after scandal. The CTE and Colin Kaepernick issues in particular have damaged the league's reputation and will certainly limit growth moving forward. Obviously the NFL is strong in rural areas but that isn't going to drive growth. Although overall the NFL is huge and fully capable of withstanding some bumps. Right now I bet a global poll would find that the Bucks are now more popular and well known than the Packers. Even 10 years ago my Chinese friends were aware of Milwaukee because of the Bucks. MLB is mostly challenged by its abysmal commissioner and lack of leadership/vision, which is resulting in a growing gap between successful and failing franchises. The only question is at what point declining revenue growth will catch up to the trends that are obvious to anyone paying attention.
  9. owbc
    What's the point of announcing this when I can't even buy tickets yet? Some teams have had single game tickets on sale for months already.
  10. owbc
    I wondered this but everyone I talked to had Wisconsin connections. I think the team being good just brought us out of the woodwork. I have been in the PNW for a while but never considered going down to Portland for a game until the Bucks got good. There's no doubt that the NBA product appeals to a wider demographic than any of the other major sports and the NBA is best positioned to be successful going forward. Milwaukee is incredibly fortunate to have an NBA team.
  11. owbc
    The next contract has to be a career buyout. I'm thinking it would take $300 million but perhaps throwing a couple more years on your idea would make for a reasonable initial offer: 2027: $31 million 2028: $32 million 2029: $33 million 10/$275 million In related news, the Brewers are not going to offer Yelich a contract.
  12. owbc
    I was at the Bucks game in Portland the other week and there were at least a thousand people wearing Bucks gear. I did not expect that at all.
  13. owbc
    I don't know if the Packers will win or not but if I was in Vegas right now I wouldn't hesitate to put $100 on those 7:1 odds to win the Superbowl.
  14. owbc
    It would be a real shame if this season ends with anything except Lebron vs. Giannis. And I say that as both a Bucks fan and a fan of the sport.
  15. owbc
    Sounds like the buzzer stuff is probably true, coming from multiple sources. Wow.
  16. owbc
    I keep seeing "Yelich window" thrown around but there is zero evidence that the FO is interested in making moves to build around Yelich and not worry about what happens after that. If anything I'm seeing the opposite--they appear to be avoiding contracts that require committing money to 2023. Not saying they are going to try and sign Yelich but they certainly are not projecting an end to the competitive window.
  17. owbc
    I wonder what this will do to offensive statistics this year. With everyone paranoid about sign stealing and complaints about the juiced ball, it could be an ugly year for offense in MLB.
  18. owbc
    I love seeing mid-market teams sign deals like this. So many of our competitors are burning up their buying power in 2021, 2022, etc. The Brewers are setting themselves up to take advantage.
  19. owbc
    Sounds like Cora is at the center of it all. His career might be over.
  20. owbc
    I ditto this response. I don't think it was clear it was a budget decrease from day one. I even think they cleared room to make a free agent deal, but then those deals just became too long/rich for our blood. Agree as well. And I'll add that this organization is putting way more weight into years 3-4 than most other organizations, especially those in a period of success. Not signing Grandal in particular was mostly about his perceived value in 2022-2023. And yes, the tradeoff is that they made winning in 2020 more difficult for themselves and frustrated a sizable chunk of the fanbase. I do think Attanasio is eager to avoid another Suppan or Garza which also factors in.
  21. owbc
    I can see a scenario where the Packers' offense is incompetent and the Seahawks win 16-13 or something like that.
  22. owbc
    For some reason I thought LoMo had retired from MLB...I guess that won't be happening for a few more months.
  23. owbc
    Coffee changed my life. I was never a morning person until I figured out the power of coffee in my mid-20s. Simply amazing stuff.
  24. owbc
    Agreed. This was a mess largely of the Brewers' own making. They needed to option him to the minors and keep him there. This was a year for him to rebuild, and to come back in September. Instead, they did what they did, and as such, they had to non-tender over the season. Wait, I thought the Brewers tried to do that and he signaled that he would refuse assignment?
  25. owbc
    They also need to move up single game ticket sales to early December so that people can buy them for Christmas. I get Mariners tickets for Christmas almost every year.
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