ClosetBrewerFan

Saladino is probably the safest to remain. He is versatile, good defender, and hitting well. Perez is most versatile but weakest hitter. Villar has the most potential but his stats are mediocre. Miller is the best hitter but worst defender. However, he has really slumped lately. He's been hitting more like Perez lately. I would think Villar is most likely to be gone. Then maybe DFA Perez. Hopefully they package Villar back for any infielder they get, unless he has negative value, then they should just cut him.

Harber is eligible for the rule 5 draft. Its unlikely he would get picked but he is really starting to put it together.

What about Ortiz, Phillips, and Stokes for Merrifield. Maybe add in a Gatewood or Supak to get it done?

There is no way Rocky Mountain Oysters will lose. The others are pretty lame. I can hear it now... Boy, those guys have balls.

Tucker cannot seem to catch a break. I dont believe he has made it through a season without injury. He has yet to put up great numbers either, last year being the best at 749 OPS. Disappointing for a 2nd round pick.

My basis for those comps was Sickels preseason 2018 ratings. However, Bannon, Kremer, Pop undoubtedly raised their stock since them with the good year they are having. Sickels had Diaz as 7th best Dodger prospect (Grade B/B-), with the rest below C+. Bannon, Kremer, and Pop were listed under the "Others of note". No mention of Valera. Sickels had ray 10th best (Grade B-), Erceg 7th best (also Grade B-), Bickford and Supak as Grade C+. Moore was not mentioned. Hintzen was just drafted so could not have been officially traded but his #'s this year are closer to Pop's numbers than Bickford. Ray has significantly improved his stock and Erceg has probably dropped a little. Bickford and Supak seem somewhat comparable to Kremer and Pop

Jim Callis was just on ESPN. Said they probably got the best player that was offered among all the teams (Diaz). Noted that it is ironic that the Orioles wanted Diaz considering he was an international signing and they avoid that market like the plague. If they spent a little in the international market they could improve there farm system a lot more. He was underwhelmed with the trade and noted that they should have traded him in the offseason and they would have gotten a better return. I think people see Machado as this superstar but just don't fully account for the limited impact a guy can have over 2.5 months as compared to the prospects who have 6 years of control. I'm no expert on these prospects the Orioles got but I'll take a stab at a Brewers equivalent trade: C. Ray (Diaz) Erceg (Bannon) Supak (Kremer) Bickford/Hintzen (Pop) D. Moore / Orf / H. Perez (Valera)

JosephC: How would you value a Stokes/Supak vs Ramos/QO. Does their calculated value come pretty close?

It was a story with Davies because Boras made it one. He complained that Davies was being disrespected so that drove a lot of conversation here. Brewers have been rotating players all year long so I guess no one blinks anymore. It clearly does suck for the player. I think he will lose about $20k in pay due to difference in ML salary versus minorLG pay. I'd be upset about that.

Not sure I would say that, considering we lost Miguel Diaz to the Padres and he was not even that highly rated in our system. He was in low A at the time he was drafted. I'd say anyone in our top 25 prospects not protected could be picked and lost. Ortiz for sure would be picked. A team could use the max DL time for him to limit how much he is exposed to the majors. Supak is in AA and pitching well. The trio of talented but injured pitchers (Kirby, D. Williams, Bickford) could be stashed in the back end of a bullpen. Derby, Perrin, Ponce could make a ML bullpen as well. Stokes and Segovia could be 4th OFs with real upside. Gatewood is probably less likely but you never know. We have 43 players on our 40 man roster (including 60 DL). Miley, Kratz, Vogt, Franklin, Asher, Orf, and Wilkerson would get it down to 36. I think we could clear 2 more spots by waiving a U IF like Perez/Miller/Villar/Saladino and another RP like J.Lopez. Those last two would be much more painful but I would do it to keep a guy like Supak or Stokes. So, I have 12 guys and possibly Gatewood that could be taken and only 6 spots available. They all wont be taken but unless we make a trade or two, we could lose a few guys in the draft.

Ramos would be a huge upgrade offensively (829 OPS) and he does not look too bad defensively (22% CS%, dWAR 0.3). He is owed about 1/2 of $10.5M this year. Its not clear if the Rays would want to dump the salary (they are already near the bottom of team salary) or eat it to get a better prospect. He is a rental but they can get a qualifying offer, so the trade has to at least account for a 1st rd draft pick comp they would lose out on. I'd say if we take on his remaining salary, we could get him for Stokes. What do you think?

What you are suggesting is some kind of stats based computer process to take all bias out. But what stats are you going to use? What value do you put on defense? Do you use WAR to select which player goes? What about pitchers W and S and batters RBI's and SB? We tend to ignore counting numbers on this site but most fans still use those. In the end, I'm fine with the current system. It's flawed but any process is going to be flawed. There will be some players who get slighted and not picked but that is life. The current system righted the Aguilar issue. Personally I liked the push to get Aguilar in the All star game. I think it was fun for the fans to try to vote their player in.

Does Ray get called up to AAA soon? He's just been rolling. Looks like we could see him in 2019. Huge change over preseason predictions.

Good luck to Kody and Jose. No real surprise though. Brewcrew needs to make room for the new signings and they had rough numbers this year. My guess is Strzelecki or Whitmer to Wisconsin. Both are 23 years old and need to be challenged.

Those numbers obviously stink but are misleading going forward. Sogard and Arcia are gone and they are replacing that production with the following so far: Saladino: .286/.352/.571/.923 Miller: .289/.360/.489/.849 Perez: .247/.281/.398/.678 Speaking of misleading numbers. Those are small sample numbers from Saladino (49 AB) and Miller (45 AB). Saladino has a career 629 OPS. Its unlikely he can keep up those numbers. I dont know what to expect from miller but the 849 OPS is just what he has done with the Brewers this year. Its more likely he will produce 725-775 OPS. Even if he does continue an 800 OPS this year, I'd rather see him at 2b platooning with Villar. Machado would make a huge difference.

The Brewers comparable is Lutz. Looking at a draft pick that in most drafts would fall in the 31-36 area. Unless there is some exceptional talent that unexpectedly drops, the 31-36 players won't be highly regarded enough to land in the top 100. Next group is "top 10 organizational prospect," so since there are 30 teams that would equate to a top 300 prospect. Probably pretty safe to say that almost all players picked in that 31-36 region would fall in that group. I have the "top 10 organizational prospect" group valued at 11.45 million, same as Brett Phillips or Luis Ortiz now that they've fallen out of top 100 consideration (IMO). However, I'd probably upgrade the compensatory pick just slightly because it's not simply about drafting a player like Lutz, but also gives the team that additional money from that draft spot to add a bit of flexibility to what they could do. Personally, I'd probably put the value of the compensatory pick at about 13 million (and admittedly am pulling the approximate 1.55 million difference out of my rear end, but I think that's fair). If I'm the Orioles and, by my numbers, if the offers fell short of 13 million in prospect surplus value then I'd just keep Machado the rest of the year and take the draft pick. I love these posts as well. Always great to see another way to look at things. Not to make this more complicated than it is, but it would seem that even considering a top 10 org prospect, the longer it takes for a player to get to the majors, the lower his value should be. An accounting analogy comes to mind. Present Value is worth more than Future Value. A lower level prospect (especially one not drafted yet) should be worth less than a guy who has already seen the majors or is close to it. Many high draft picks never make it to the majors, let alone succeed there. I could not imagine trading Phillips or Ortiz straight up for #30+ draft pick.

How do you feel about losing prospects in our top 10-20 range for free in the offseason. If we dont resolve the 40 man roster crunch, guys like Stokes, Gatewood, QTC, or Bickford will be lost. As others have said, we wont be losing top prospects for Machado. But if we are going to lose players anyways, might as well get something for them. We cant keep all of these guys.

40 man roster really is loaded. Not much old baggage left. When Miley comes off the 60 this week, he will take up the last open spot. Kratz will probably be DFA'd when Pina comes off but after that you are down to Asher, Wilkerson, and then maybe Lopez. Any new additions will be painful. I think if we trade for anyone we will be sending back someone off our 40 man. Lopez, Houser, Diplan, Barnes, Broxton, or Phillips are my guess

burnes is our closer. we cant trade him now

Ha! Quote of the night.

This is a guy I think we should target. A bit of a risk but this guy could be a great starter for us down the stretch. I'd think we could package Santana or Phillips, Supak and a lottery ticket. He's been hurt and is a rental so he should not cost too much. Man, that Angel offense is just brutal after Trout and Ohtani. Calhoun 480 OPS (yes that's his OPS) is making Arcia look like an all star. Looks like they could use an OF.

Hi numbers are impressive this year! 2.87 ERA, 7.2 H/9, 9.0 K/9 If not, what would be one?

It would be nice to keep Ramirez. Same for Hager and Moore.

Yeah. I'm reluctant to trade prospects for rentals but we can't keep all these guys. At best, I think we could open up 5 spots to protect players. The players I would keep: Ortiz, Medeiros, Kirby, QTC, Supak Maybe's: Ponce, Bickford, D. Williams, Derby, Stokes, Perrin, Gatewood, J.Segovia We will lose many of these if they are not protected. Hopefully Stearns can make a trade using quantity vs. quality with a focus on reducing the 40 man crunch. He could also trade some of J. Lopez, Barnes, Broxton, Diplan, Houser, Phillips, Santana, or Woodruff without hurting the major league team much. I'd hate to lose Hiura, Burnes and F. Peralta but other than that I'm open to trading any of the above.

Can Wilkerson start the first game, get optioned immediately after and then call up someone else for the 2nd half of the doubleheader?