Just curious, are there stats by pitcher. Do we know what the run expectancy is against Santana with a runner on 2nd no outs, or a runner on 3rd with one out? Are you factoring in that it could wind up 1st and 3rd no outs, or better if there is an error? Of course, the bunt could also be popped up, and you'd have runner on 2nd with one out. The point being, it's not as simple comparing general hypotheticals. The pitcher, runner, and batter all affect the outcome a certain way.