but that's still a lot of money to commit to a guy who may be declining. As Rydogg, points out he is likely entering his prime years. Objectively, I don't see any reason to think he is declining. Marcels projects a 3.27 ERA for 2009. He'll do that over something like 70 IP. We have been told many many times, ERA is not the best stat to monitor, and I am not the biggest Marcel geek -- but I am sure that Marcel didn't know K-Rod would be changing leagues, so I am sure that the 3.27 number needs to be adjusted. Here is the projection more robustly stated.... 66 IP 56H 27R 24ER 5HR 70K 29BB 1.29WHIP 3.27 ERA Here is what he did in 2008. 68IP 54H 21R 17ER 4ER 77K 34BB 1.288 WHIP 2.24ERA I don't see Marcel projecting any sort of skills decline, but perhaps K-Rod will be unluckier in 2009 than compared to 2008. The Hits/walks/Ks all are in line. Again, I don't think that if Marcel knew that he would change leagues, the projection would be different. Even acknowledging that those innings will be high leverage ones on average, is it a given that this is steal for the Mets? This isn't a steal, however I think it is a very sensible signing for the Mets. They need some BP help in the worst way, and they have some very favorable contracts -- I think they can spend a little more money on their BP. K-Rod is a young, special pitcher. I think getting a guy who just had 62 saves to agree to a 3 year deal is a minor coup -- especially when 5 year 75M contracts were expected. I think the Mets were shrewd here. Could they have tried to roll the dice with some $1-2M, type of arms? -- Probably, -- no doubt the Mets are hedging their bets a bit. I feel lucky we don't have a GM that wants to blow a chunk of change on the most overpaid FAs (closers). I think your feelings of luck are a bit unfounded and perhaps premature. DM offered a similar contract to Cordero, just last off-season, and I find K-Rod's deal more shrewd than the Gagne gamble (which was 10M/year as well). Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't end up giving $10/year to some reliever arm this off-season -- it ain't over yet. Again, I don't think this signing is brilliant or the signing of the year or anything like that, but I think the Mets suitably addressed a glaring need on their team.