rluzinski

He's a 4.25 - 4.5 kind of pitcher, so $12 mil a year isn't crazy. As fans, we have no idea what could have gotten him.

No matter what happens, this has been an entertaining series.

The Nelson strike 3 call: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/nelsonk.jpg Very marginal, but what are you going to do.

I'd love to replace half the current starters with better players. You have to find the better players first, however. Maybe DeFelice is marginally better but I 'm not so sure. I think the Crew will have to acquire an arm to have a good option over Suppan. And even then, as the #6 pitcher, Suppan would be almost guaranteed to get a bunch of starts.

I t's very simple. I don't want to use OPS because it's not a very good measure of run production. The fact that it was included in the projections I posted was not some kind of endorsement for it. People expect to see it, so I put it there. I think BA is pretty worthless as well but I included it. Does that mean I want to use that instead? You didn't make the claim that those 3 pitchers will outslug or out OPS Kendall, you said they were better hitters at this point. To me, the better hitter will result in their team scoring more runs. A batter with the same OPS but a higher OBP will produce more runs for his team. If I were you, I would want to use OPS as well. It at least gives tou a fighting chance. Like I said, 1.8 x OBP + SLG most closely matches the linear weights value, which why I suggested it. Some people have used a number as low as 1.5, which would be fine as well. Anyone who suggests I want to use a mutiplier simply because it benefits me probably has no idea where that equation comes from, so I'm not going to argue about it. And I have no problem simply using linear weight values that correctly gives less value for an IBB and docks a batter for hitting into double plays. Those are excellent points and hould be accounted for. I'm not going to handicap myself simply for the sake of getting the bet agreed on, though. But sure, this has probably become more complicated than most people would want it to be but tryng to measure offensive production isn't simple. That's probably why you see people constantly arguing about who's the better of two hitters. It usually doesn't involve a positional player and a trio of pitchers, however. Fatter said 3 pitchers are better hitters than Kendall. I disagree but if we can't agree on what makes someone a better hitter, this is a waste of time.

It's always the same thing. People claim player X is the better hitter but won't use the right stats to back up that claim. OPS is a heck of a lot better than BA or RBIs but it's clearly not the right stat to compare two players and determine who's more productive. But I think you know that already.

I am not real comfortable saying all three will hit better than Kendall over the course of this season, but I would take the aggregate of all three, or Yo. Name your stakes... The average of the three is fine. No way I'm using OPS, though, since it grossly undervalues OBP and that's the only thing Kendall isn't terrible at yet. To keep it as simple as possible, I suggest 1.8OBP+SLG, which is the best fit to the linear weight values for each batting event. Either that or just use this linear weight equation: .47*1B + .78*2B + 1.09*3B + 1.4*HR + .33*(BB+HB) - .27*(AB-H) http://baseballevolution.com/keith/linearw.html If you want me to use OPS or BA or RBIs, no thanks. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif $50, donated to BF.net?

There's nothing wrong with having a firesale, if it results in getting a lot of talent back and it doesn't result in a sub $40 mil payroll.

I am pretty convinced that Yo, Parra and Looper are more effective hitters at this point. In other words, going forward, you are saying that more often than not, you would expect that all three will out hit Kendall, if we played the season a million times. Over one season, you could be dead wrong and still luck your way to a win, or I could be wrong and still win. But since I think the odds of your claim actually occurring are so low, I would love to take the bet.

I am pretty convinced that Yo, Parra and Looper are more effective hitters at this point. As much as I dislike Kendall's bat, I would love to take that bet. Zambrano may be the best hitting pitcher in the league and here's his career line: .236 /.244 /.381 /.625 Kendall's preseason Marcel projection: .252/.337/.328/.665 Even with Kendall's bad start, his projections going forward beat any pitcher's very easily. The irony is, it was about this time last year that I was trying to convince people not to overweight Kendall's good start. Now, I've seen studies that still advocate batting the pitcher 8th. I thick it showed to add 4 runs over a season, IRRC.

Yost got fired in an unprecedented manner last year. I would say that a lot more people than the fans panicked and overreacted if a manager gets fired 150 games into the season. Fans screamed "season over!" about a billion times throughout last season and called Yost a fool for having the nerve to suggest that people were over reacting. That's what I am referring to.

Right now, I would weight preseason projections about 97% and this season about 3%

Yost was so wrong in suggesting last year that much of the panic lwas premature and disproportionate to the situation? The Brewers made the damn playoffs! I think every Brewer fan (including myself) thought the season was over at least once last year. And some fans found especially aggressive ways to express their frusrations. But in the end, even though Yost wasn't allowed to finish season as manager, his was somewhat vindicated by the post season birth. Fans will flip out over a 3 game losing streak and want their emotional responses validated by the media, players and coaches doing the same. I think that's a big part of it, at least. They don't want to be told to calm down. "Calm down!? YOU calm down!!!"

Braun really knows what to say to get the fans to like him. The perfect American athlete. Me? I prefer that the players play and coaches dole out the public criticisms. Braun should stick with criticizing his own play, when the situation justifies it. Until last night's game, he had a sub .700 OPS, so he's certainly had the opportunity this year.

You're not a professional athlete with the ability to chose between nibbling and pounding the zone. Little league or major league, managers are responsible for regaining their teams' focus. The theory is that these pitchers would perform better by "pounding the zone" but simply nibble because of raw fear? Or do they just forget what they did to become so successful at their sport that they get to play at the highest level? Pitchers are always working the corners and sometimes they just can't hit them. Yelling at them won't increase their accuracy.

J Kendall should retire right now. He is just killing this offense...no matter what he supposedly brings in helping this pitching staff. He did say he wanted to retire as a Brewer!

Hell, this board was a ghost town, mid-September last year. It was obvious to about 75% of Brewer fans that the Crew didn't have the heart to make the playoffs. Fans are a fickle, emotional bunch.

If Macha yelled at me enough, would I be able to throw strikes? Seriously though, this isn't little league. These guys know what they are supposed to do and are plenty motivated. Yelling only makes the manager and the fans feel better.

Well, at least it's a game again.

This game blows about as much as the entire season has. I don't expect a win every day but I do expect to extract some fun out of watching a sports game. We get a half inning of enjoyment tonight. Awwww, thanks.

Am I alone in saying that I hate the sausage race? I think it bothers me on some existential level that people get so worked up over four costumed teenagers running around a field. Anyway, just my two cents. I've heard people say the same thing about watching guys hit balls with sticks.

Why is our pitching so horrible right now? They gave up 11 runs in the preceding 4 games, so they have been much better recently. Not tonight, obviously.

Honestly. Why would macha even bother warming someone else up, now? If he pulls Para, it's because it's already at least 5-1. Why burn your bullpen up for that?

Good lord Manny. THROW STRIKES! He can't even throw his fastball for strikes right now.

According to fangraphs, Weeks is swinging at more pitches overall (swing%), with all of them basically being balls (O-swing%): http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1849&position=2B IMO, way too early to make any definitive statements about a new approach, however.