rluzinski
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Everything posted by rluzinski
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We must be watching a different game because I saw Weeks hustling all the way back to first. The problem was that he had run wayyy to far towards 2nd to get back.
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Aoki has had a very nice year and for what Melvin paid for him, he was a steal. He still doesn't project to be a very good option leading off against LHP, however. Huh? Weeks' batting line batting lead off for the, career: .258/.356/.444 That's basically identical to what Aoki did this year. Who cares if a lead off hitter strikes out anyway? If his overall numbers are good, his K rate is largely irrelevant. Now if you are referring to his terrible start to this season, you need to expand your memory.
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To be fair, this loss could not have lowered the playoff odds by more than 4%, so let's not pretend the season was lost today. That said, any dream of a miraculous come back probably did.
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Can we please open this game up? I want to dream the impossible dream for at least one more day. Also, assuming the Brewers hold on today, I am rooting for 5-1 and 2-4 because it seems a little more reasonable.
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no. Actually, we literally can do both at the same time; they are not mutually exclusive. If someone chooses not to of course, that is their prerogative. I was simply offering an alternative. BP gives the Brewers around a 1 in 20 shot of making the playoffs. A win today probably doubles that. Let's win.
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I love optimism but we can also stay grounded in reality. Even if you assume the Brewers have a 70% chance of winning each game , that equates to a 12% chance of going 6-0 and even that is optimistic. That's why I just break up the long odds and just take it one day at a time. Win tomorrow and bring it back home!
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With a win tomorrow, it would be hard not to be at least mildly excited about the prospect of getting to within 2 games on Friday with 5 to play. Is it wrong that I am actually rooting for the Dodgers to win as well? I figure that the odds of the Brewers finishing 2nd to the Dodgers for the 2nd wildcard spot is extremely low anyway, so let's get the Cards out of the playoffs.
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Runs have been down the last few years. The average NL starter this year has 4.1 ERA so almost by definition, that is what to expect from from an average #3 pitcher. Of course, that league average includes a bunch of innings from #6 and #7 replacement starters. A better way to see how your game 1 rotation stacks up might be to just take the average projection from the top 15 NL starters to get an average #1, then the next 15 for the average #2, etc... That said, I don't think your numbers are that far off. I agree that fans in general have unrealistic expectations for an average starting rotation. A starter with a 4.0 ERA that is making league minimum is absolute gold. Even if the Brewers construct a very young starting rotation that projects to be a little below average, they will be paid so little that it will be more than worth it, provided they send the cash elsewhere.
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Keeping it up for 3 hours is pretty dumb.
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I just want the Brewers to win tomorrow.
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The average #4 starting pitcher has something like a 4.50-4.75 ERA. To call that a stretch for Fiers next year is pretty silly to me. He had a good minor league career, great rookie year and makes league min. I would say there is practically no chance he isn't in the starting rotation next year to start the season. And I don't care very much how anyone performs in spring training.
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I would argue that the basic point of instant replay is to reverse whatever obviously incorrect calls you are physically able to. You've never been able to reverse judgement calls (e.g. pass interference, holding, simultaneous possession) by design and I believe it needs to stay that way. The system didn't work because it was entrusted to individuals that couldn't make even a slightly reasonable initial judgement call.
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It feels like the season is ending in a about 15 minutes. O well, at least we got a little extra entertainment in before Houston decided to keep being an embarrassment to baseball. And as I replied, I find the notion that any team would rather face the Cardinals than the Brewers pretty crazy. A team being hot and cold tell you how a team has done recently, not how they are expected to perform going forward. Vegas makes a lot of money on people who believe otherwise.
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Will the Reds roll over for the Brewers?
rluzinski replied to endaround's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Agreed. I could also see the starting position players get a couple extra days off. And teams are hot till their not. The Brewers have the much worse run differential and already traded their ace away. There is no way the Reds would prefer to face the Cardinals. -
I can't get mad at the Brewers for "only" winning 2 in Washington but it's not going to do it. It's no longer enough to hope for the Brewers to continue playing out of their minds. The Cardinals will need to completely collapse as well.
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Gomez just dropped it?
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In what universe was Livan a better option than Peralta anyway? Livan sucks on a good day.
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I miss Hart.
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Damn you Marcum.
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Double, single,single. You have to do something stupid not to score even once with that in a row.
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No excuse with no out.
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YES! Makes tonight's Brewer game SO much more exciting.
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So Hart lasted 5 innings or is he just going to start against lefties until he is more healed? And I am so SICK of having to root for horrible teams to beat the Cardinals. All I wanted was 1 win from the Astros and they couldn't even do that. Now the Cubs are threatening to lose the first game of their series. Brewers needed the Cards to finish 6-6 at best before today's game...
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Rooting for Houston not to suck reminds me how painful it was to have to root for those terrible Brewer teams of the early 2000's. Just pathetic.
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Yeah, but the odds of Bud Norris out-dueling Jaime Garcia seem slim. About a 32% chance, according to Vegas. Just takes a walks and a lucky HR to turn those odds upside down though.