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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    The best matchup Macha could muster up in an important situation is Counsell against a lefty? Seriously?
  2. rluzinski
    Every character was deeply flawed to the point of making it difficult to root for them at times. I think they did a good job of reeling the viewers back in, just when they were ready to give up on a character, however. I remember not likely a whole season very much (season 3?) but overall, it was just a great series.
  3. rluzinski
    I would definitely prefer Villy in McClung's role. That said, when your bullpen has to log 4 innings in one game, you are going to probably have you 3rd best reliever log at least 1 inning.
  4. rluzinski
    Furthermore, you know that the pitches a player gets is completely different depending on where he bats in the order. I've seen data that shows very small differences between pitch types by batting spot. I won't say it's insignificant (I don't really know) but it's subtle. It is certainly not "completely different". I think it matters very little where a guy bats. Even if moving a guy to a different sport in the lineup hurts his production by 5% (which would be a huge effect), you wouldn't be able to notice it over a couple of starts.
  5. rluzinski
    Being that our rotation doesn't stack up 1vs1 2vs2 and so on with other teams, this is brilliant. Why not throw Suppan out as a sacrificial lamb against the other teams ace? It gives every other starter a better chance of winning being that our staff is facing 1vs2 2vs3 3vs4 4vs5 5vs1. As far as I can tell, it makes little difference how you match up the starting pitchers. The overall expected wins are pretty close. You are better off just trying to maximize the starts of our best starting pitchers (although the Brewers aren't really in position to do so).
  6. rluzinski
    If he isn't giving the team a chance to win on a regular basis would be enough for me to try other options I guess I'm not sure what that even means, so you get your wish of not getting your comment refuted. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif f I guess my threshold for Suppan is a lot less than yours, to me a 5+ ERA after 5 starts is enough to demote Suppan to the bullpen. I hope the Brewers give Suppan a short leash. So he could give up 3 runs in 7 IP in his next 4 starts and you would advocate taking him out of the starting rotation? 5.06 ERA.
  7. rluzinski
    What constitutes a pitcher getting his brains bashed in? 6 ERA? 7 ERA? Projecting Suppan to have an ERA over 6 is pretty silly IMO. It's not like he's showing signs of being hurt. He's just a recently average pitcher on the down slope of his career.
  8. rluzinski
    Suppan's projections suggest that he is about a 5.0 ERA pitcher at this point in his career and I think that still makes him the 5th best available starter. McClung did some good things for the Brewers last year but I'm not ready to assume he's finally figured things out, especially with regard to the walks. If he has a 5.2 ERA after 10 starts, there is almost no chance he gets pulled. I'd say 15 starts and an ERA over 6 is what it would take. And if his secondary stats suggest he's earned that 6+ ERA, I'd agree with the move.
  9. rluzinski
    A good community college beat a team of mostly minor leaguers. Woopy. And that T-Shirt is so obviously a joke that it's painful to read that guy get all worked up about it.
  10. rluzinski
    It says Bronson Arroyo's odds are higher than Gallardo's, forgive me if I'm not really putting much faith in those odds. We can certainly quibble over the exact odds but I think we all know, for several reasons, the odds of Gallardo winning the Cy Young are extremely low. He'll have to beat his performance projection, he'll have to pitch over 200 innings and he'll have to get lucky with his wins and losses (as most Cy Young winners seem to have to do). I think there's a good chance Gallardo could have an ERA under 3.5 but the 200+ innings thing is the big question mark, IMO. There is also a difference between me expecting it and me being surprised by it. I understand that. I didn't think my question suggested that. My question was, if you say that you wouldn't be surprised by it, what kind of odds justifies that kind of comment? It's just a pet peeve of mine when someone says they wouldn't be surprised if something happened in sports. Don't get me wrong, though, it's not as bad making a prediction that someone knows is not likely to occur. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Guys Rosenthal love to do that. Actually, it's a 3.3333(threes go on forever) percent chance if those odds are truly accurate. How dare I round down a third of one percent! Shame on me. Plus gambling odds aren't true odds, they are created to balance out the money as close as possible and create juice. They represent the average guess of thousands of people willing to back up their opinion with cash. Historically speaking, they do a pretty darn good job.
  11. rluzinski
    How high does the odds of something happening have to be before someone wouldn't be surprised if it did happen? Bodog puts it at 30:1, or a 3% chance: http://sports.bodoglife.com/sports-betting/mlb-baseball-player-props.jsp Personally, if something has a 3% chance of happening, I would be surprised if it beat the odds and did.
  12. rluzinski
    Based off some of the team comments, it sounds like he tried to figure out projected playing time himself. It sounds like he's assuming Yo will be playing a lot this year but I don't think he showed the raw numbers.
  13. rluzinski
    Well, a huge variable in any projection like this is injuries. You can project a guy like Carpenter to make 20 starts but he might make 30 or none. I think fans could do a better job at projecting playing time than just taking a weighted average of previous playing time. I think this numbers give you a rough snapshot of each team right now but things can be completely different in 3 months. And even if you KNOW the true talent of each player and know how much he'll play, a true 81 win team can easily win 86 games or 76 games, depending on how the ball bounces. That's why it's fun to watch.
  14. rluzinski
    I agree that if they aren't considering defense at all, it's a huge flaw. As for PECOTA, it's a projection system, not a game simulator. How are they converting their projected player performances into wins and losses? Last time I checked, it fairly rudimentary. And has BP improved their defensive projection system? I know they weren't even play-by-play based for years but I thought I read that they've improved them.
  15. rluzinski
    Based on the average of all the major projection systems: NL Standings Projection I've already accepted that the Cubs have a good shot at running away with the NL Central. I've also come to terms with the fact that the Brewers are outside, looking in, playoffs wise. I will be very unhappy, however, if the Brewers do not finish second in their division. I haven't really kept up with much during the off season but I am surprised to see the Cardinals projected to have more wins than the Brewers (84 to 82). It's not like they are assuming Carpenter goes back to being a 30 start ace.
  16. rluzinski
    I think it was an embarrassment that the Brewers even accepted the invitation to play in the playoffs. They should have just forfeited. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif It's a banner. There were no tickertape parades or overturned cars. No one is screamings, "We're number one!!" The banner is just a simple reminder of being one of the top 4 teams in the NL last year. Nothing more of less.
  17. rluzinski
    Doing some quick and dirty estimates, I think it matters little who starting pitchers end up getting matched up with. I had 2 pretend teams with averag eoffenses. Team one had a 3.5 ERA pitcher in game 1 and a 5.5 ERA pitcher for game 2. Team 2 had a 3.5 ERA pitcher and a 5.5 ERA pitcher to slot.. It pretty much didn't matter who pitched first. Allao, I question the relevance of Bush's home/road split. That's the kind of stuff gamblers latch onto but I think you can always find odd splits. If anything, I'd think Miller Park would be bad for Bush, as it gives up an above average number of HRs and Bush is a flyball pitcher.
  18. rluzinski
    Unless Weeks was signed to a lucrative multiyear deal when I wasn't paying attention, I think he plenty of motivation to to try superhard all the time.
  19. rluzinski
    His line drive percentage was the lowest of his career, and it's not trending positively. I'll be happy to take the over if you think the last two years indicates a predictive trend. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  20. rluzinski
    I can't fathom a scenario where batting your 8th best hitter, leadoff it a good idea. He doesn't even project to have a good OBP anymore. Macha has already made a number of head scratching comments and he hasn't even managed a real game yet.
  21. rluzinski
    I agree that Macha's comments were pretty darn mild. had he called him out, however, justifying it for having a few bad minor league innings would have been weak, IMO.
  22. rluzinski
    2009 Chone Projections: Hardy: .278/.343/.463/.806; 4 Runs/150 games Escobar: .270 /.303/.356/.659; -25 runs/150 games So Hardy has a 29 run or about a 3 win advantage over Escobar, offensively. I good rule of thumb is to assume the best and worst defenders are about 20 runs/2 wins from average. Even if we assume Escobar is the best and Hardy is merely, average, Hardy is still 1 win more valuable than Escobar in 2009. In reality, I don't think it's fair to assume a gap larger than 1 win between hardy and Escobar, defensively. That makes Hardy about 2 wins better and $8 mil more valuable. Since Hardy is getting paid only about $4 mil more than Escobar in 2009, he has more net value (expected production - salary). Not telling you guys anything you don't already know. Just trying to put some numbers into the discussion.
  23. rluzinski
    Marcel projections: Hardy: .278/.336/.459/.795 Hart: .280/.329/.483/.812 CHONE has them very similar as well. I'd be tempted to put Hart's SLG at #5 but I doubt it really matters much.
  24. rluzinski
    And that is why so many people gave up on the show way too early I gave it three seasons. That was enough. Season 1 was great but I'm not going to invest more than 20 hours of viewing to wait for something to happen. After the whole thing is done, I'd love if they came out with a DVD version, where they cut out all the filler and subplots that go nowhere and gave me 20 hours of great TV.
  25. rluzinski
    Very interesting concept but to echo casey, I'd like to see more of the methodology.
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