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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I think most projected systems use a weighted average IP over the last 3 years. Something like 50/30/20. If Sheets pitched 230 innings next year, his projected IP would shoot up drastically. Let's face it, though, you can't project injury time very well at all. It's an educated guess. It can't be ignored, though.
  2. rluzinski
    Sheets is projected to only pitch 150-160 IP next year, which is why he's only worth around $15 mil, according to the stat guys. Furthermore, for a multiyear deal, he's projected to pitch 10% less innings for each subsequent year. That all sounds pretty reasonable to me.
  3. rluzinski
    If the Chicago sports radio creew thinks Swisher is a bum, that's good enough for me. Trade for him AND sign him to an extension! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I'm not sure Swisher is all that but his contract assumes he's about average, so what's the problem?
  4. rluzinski
    FTJ, That's why I put $12+ mil. No way Sheets would have gotten a paycut, no matter how it went down. Well, I guess it could have gone to arbitrion and Sheets could have asked for $25 mil http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  5. rluzinski
    Swisher projects to be around a .360/.450/.810 hitter next year. I don't think we should expect him to repeat 2008 or 2006 next year.
  6. rluzinski
    I could understand you saying this if you thought Hart was no good, but your arguing Hart is better than Dunn. Dunn averages 3 wins a year, which is worth a salary of about $12 million. So Hart for must have some trade value. I think he has trade value, as does Escobar. I just think Greinke is worth more. Now, if Escobar is even a league average SS (offense + defense) over the first 6 years in the majors, I'll be proven dead wrong.
  7. rluzinski
    Using ab x OBP x SLG, and given 5800 ab's you come up with 937 runs. You have to be careful though, since total season AB are a function of OBP.
  8. rluzinski
    Using ab x OBP x SLG, and given 5800 ab's you come up with 937 runs. You have to be careful though, since total season AB are a function of OBP.
  9. rluzinski
    Melvin offered Sheets the $12+ mil he would have got on a one year deal, had he accepted arbitration. If anything, Sheets probably just confirmed he wanted a multiyear deal, when they talked during the winter meeting. There's really not much to talk about at this point.
  10. rluzinski
    Those guys all slumped in large part because the lineup was overloaded with righthanded hitters. I keep hearing how detrimental having a RH-heavy lineup was to the Brewers' offense last year but I've never seen anyone offer up any evidence to back up that claim. I assume the RH batters had to face more RH pitchers than average but let's look at the numbers: % of PAs RH Batters faced RHP, 2008 MLB: 65.1% Brewers: 69.6% So, Brewer RH batters had 112 less PAs with the platoon advantage than an average RHB last year. That's about 2 PAs every 3 games. That's not insignificant but it doesn't sound all that large, either. I also think this has little to do with the possbility of the offensive projection being inflated. A significant portion of that projection (~50%) is simply based the 2007 Brewers batters' performances. A large part of the larger than average platoon disadvantage for 2009 is already figured into the projection. Any batter that is under 28 years old will have a projected increase in production due to their age. That's a large part of the projected uptick, I think.
  11. rluzinski
    "No, I was not suggesting we sign Dunn and release Hart. " I understand what you were proposing. I was simply trying to summarize what you think would be the net gain for the Brewers in a trade like that. A more valuable corner outfielder and an ace pitcher for two years for Escobar and maybe $12 mil more money in 2009? That doesn't pass the smell test, IMO. I don't think Dunn is a clear upgrade over Hart. Dunn is easily a win below average defensively. I'm much more intrigued about the possibility of trading Fielder and signing Dunn to play at 1B, though, where he's a better defensive fit. It would depend entirely on what Fielder could land the Brewers, of course. I don't think Hart and Escobar could net Greinke, no matter how many teams are involved. Maybe I am undervaluing Escobar but I don't know how excited another team would get about him. Greinke is an arby player for two more years and might have a projected 3.6 ERA in the NL. Yowza!
  12. rluzinski
    Heck, the Red Sox signed John Smoltz and Brad Penny, two pitchers coming off injured seasons, but haven't shown any interest in Sheets. And it's not like money or giving up a pick would be a major issue with the Red Sox. Can we please stop pretending that some teams have infinite financial resources? Every team has financial constraints, even if they are drastically different from team to team. Think about the Cameron trade proposal if you disagree. If the Red Sox or any team could get Sheets for 1/$5 mil, they'd sign him. They can't. And Lowe is easily the more desirable starting pitcher, so I'm not surprised that he's gotten a lot more attention.
  13. rluzinski
    I don't think it's puzzling that Sheets is holding out for a 2+ year deal. He may still get it if he's patient He'll get a 1 year deal, either way* *speculation alert.
  14. rluzinski
    My guess (and that's what we all are doing here) is that the Brewers were/are only interested in Sheets in a 1 year deal and Sheets wanted to persue a multiyear deal. So far, I think Sheets's agent has said that Sheets won't even consider a 1 year deal. Of course, the longer Sheets is on the market, the more likely he's willing to accept a 1 year deal. But will any team want to give up a 1st round pick for a 1 year deal? Sheets is kind of caught in limbo. The scenario I see Sheets coming back to the Brewers is if he still didn't get an acceptable multiyear deal by early March. He might decide to use 2009 to showcase his talents with the Brewers on a 1 year deal with no club option. Melvin would bring him back with the same base salary as last year, with some kind of decent IP incentive. If Sheets gives the Brewers 150 IP @ 3.6 ERA, he would have earned his base salary anyway. I think if he's patient and healthy in March, he'll get his multiyear deal somewhere else, though.
  15. rluzinski
    When you consider defense, I don't think that Dunn even represents an upgrade over Hart. In fact, some projections suggest Hart will be the better player over the next 3 years. You know Dunn will give you 40 HRs and a comical display of defense in the outfield every year. Considering that Hart will easily be the cheaper player, I think you are better off just holding onto him. Oh, so your plan for starting pitching to to just sign a young, cheap, healthy established pitcher to a below market rate? I was getting the impression that you think the Brewers could upgrade RF and get Greinke for Escobar and a little cash. I don't think Dunn is an upgrade over Hart (I'd call it a wash), nor do I think your trade proposal is realistic. Of course, it's easy to call any trade scenario that involves three teams, unrealistic. If you aren't suggesting that Dunn represents more wins than Hart, I take my original comment back.
  16. rluzinski
    I read BF.net on my smartphone and it works pretty well. The text box is just very narrow, as the avatar part of the box takes up a lot of width.
  17. rluzinski
    Then why waste your time and post here? How are we going to know how awesome his team is if he doesn't let us know? Go PANTHERS! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  18. rluzinski
    Signing a corner outfielder has to be about the 10th thing on Melvin's list of things to do this off season. Hart and Braun are cheap and better than average.
  19. rluzinski
    He's a flyball pitcher moving to a HR park, so there is some reason for concern. I don't think his increase in HRs last year is that alarming in itself, though. Yeh, he doubled his rate but it was still only 8 HRs total. It's like looking at someone's batting average after 8 hits. Everything else looked pretty good so I think he'll be at least serviceable. Is he overpaid? Closers in general seem to be overpaid, so probably. Better to overpay by a few million on a one year deal than by 10's of millions on a multiyear deal, though. It kind of sounded like the Brewers weren't going over $80 mil this year, so unless they free up salary with a trade, Melvin is probably not getting a new starting pitcher via free agency.
  20. rluzinski
    The Yankees were and probably still are interested in Sheets. He's probably not their first choice... or anyone's until one or two more guys are signed.
  21. rluzinski
    That's a good financial decision. These bars can buy a 10 game ticket package and get opening day, right?
  22. rluzinski
    Those players aren't comparable to Sheets, who if he's healthy is in the prime of his career and is a legit #1 starting pitcher. But Sheets isn't comparable to most of them because he ended 2008 hurt. That's the whole point. If Sheets hadn't gotten hurt, we wouldn't be having this conversation. If I were a GM and all signs pointed to Sheets' injury healing on its own in time for the start of the season, I would STILL prefer to wait until he could give me a workout a prove it. And if Sheets is still holding out for that possibility of a multiyear deal, he's going to have to wait as well. IMO, all the facts point to Sheets not hiding anything at this point. When Sheets was finally shutdown, it was explained that Sheets and the organization was fully aware of his injury. Were they lying? And I haven't seen anyone even try to resolve the notion that Sheets knows he's seriously hurt but was offered and declined arbitration. It just doesn't add up but then I guess it wouldn't be a conspiracy theory if it did.
  23. rluzinski
    We have never heard any time line on how long his recovery will be - or for that matter, the full extent of his injury. So, it wasn't a muscle tear in his forearm, after all? Was there a suggestion somewhere that this wasn't "the full extent of his injury"? That's all I've ever heard. Since then, the Brewers offered, and Sheets declined arbitration. Unless we want to get into conspiracy theory territory (Melvin knows Sheets is more injured but had a handshake agreement to offer him arbitration), it seems clear that Sheets' injury wasn't deemed more serious at that point. Last I heard, Sheets wouldn't need surgery, just time. I never heard how long but I guess I didn't picture him being able to groove 95 MPH fastballs on January 6th. Is he progressing slower than expected? It's possible, I suppose. I just don't see the supposed disinterest in him on the free agent market as very strong evidence that the injury is worse than expected. The market overall for multi-year deals is very soft. If Sheets is still holding out for one (which was always my assumption, since he would have just accepted arbitration if not), he knows he may have to wait even a couple more months. There's still plenty of players out waiting the market out.
  24. rluzinski
    Call me crazy but my guess is that Hardy is better at playing baseball than Hall is. It's like criticizing a hitter who's BABIP is too high... huh? He was wrong for making good contact for an extended period of time? The point is, some stats don't stay as consistent from year to year for players .... like BABIP for batters and pitchers. That suggests that there is a larger component of random variance in those stats than in others. Sample error is in everything to some degree, though. And if you think random variance isn't real, do this. Look at the leaders in BABIP (for either pitchers or batters) for 2007 and take the average. Then find their BABIP average for 2008. I haven't done it but I don't need to. You will see regression to mean in action. We don't make this stuff up to spite you.
  25. rluzinski
    I'll give him a 4.0 ERA projection for 2009, which makes him very valuable as a starting pitcher. if you lett me know what kind of run support he is going to get, I'll give you my win estimate. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
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