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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Brewer fans being scared of going to west coast is like other teams thinking they can still go to Miller Park and destroy the Brewers. Things have changed. That said, expecting a sweep against the Padres is pretty outside the "realistic expectations" zone. They could easily lose the series. For the road trip, the numbers suggest closer to a 3-3 road trip than a 4-2 one.
  2. rluzinski
    Why would Tom even answer the question when he literally knew nothing about the situation? That's because he doesn't care that Branyan is sitting , in favor of Counsell. Contrast that with how Tom seems to hound Yost about Weeks on a daily basis and the situation really annoys me. Obsessed with one topic and ignore others?
  3. rluzinski
    I'm not sure why we even need to argue about defense. Make Counsell the best defensive 3B in the league and Branyan a little below average and Counsell still can't match Branyan's overall value.
  4. rluzinski
    I have to say, I really didn't come into this season very optimistic about the Brewer's post season chances. I figured that the Brewers were good for around 88 wins, which gave them an outside shot at the wildcard but not much chance at the division. The division still isn't looking good but the Brewers are looking very good in the wild card area. Long way to go yet but I have no complaints with regard to where they stand right now.
  5. rluzinski
    Can I just request - as a fan in this case, not as an administrator - that any crabbing about the lineups be kept to a minimum, or better yet put in the vent thread? Any possible complaints from me about Counsell will be kept far away from the IGT, I promise. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  6. rluzinski
    Well sure. Branyan will be back in the lineup because Counsell will most likely still be sporting something like a .225/.320/.310/.630 line. But I'm sure he will have hit many weak infield grounders during that time, some that will even be labeled as constructive outs!
  7. rluzinski
    I see Braun at least sitting out the Padres series. Really, he just needs to let the thing heal.
  8. rluzinski
    If you want to talk about offensive production with regard to the context it occurred in, that's fair. Using something like WPA (win probability added) estimates the chance of a team winning before and after the players AB. As up all those changes and you get his total WPA for the year. A team has a 52% of winning a tie game before a guy hits a solo shot in the bottom of the 12th, he gets .48 WPA. Counsell? Not surprisingly, he's racked up the second worst WPA on the team: http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Brewers&season=2008 Counsell has -.89 WPA, to Kendall's -1.48. Of course, it took Kendall over twice as many AB to acquire that and he's a catcher, not a guy masquerading as a 3B. You can look game by game if you are skeptical of their methodology. Counsell has certainly contributed offensively in some game but not enough to compensate for all the times he's hurt the team. Counsell's fine as a utility infielder. He can give above average defense at SS, 2B and 3B. He might be a little overpaid but that's water under the bridge.My beef with is Yost, who doesn't know how to use him correctly.
  9. rluzinski
    Here is my argument why it is good that Counsell is getting some starts here in August. We've heard those argument from you several times. To my knowledge, you've never really offered any evidence to support them, though. Why does a team need a contact hitter that can't get on base and has no power? How can a team have "enough" power? Diminishing returns? Should productive outs really be coveted? Why should I value a consistently bad hitter over a theoretically less consistent but decent hitting one? Perhaps some or all of those theories will prove themselves correct, but all the evidence I've seen suggests the opposite. So until I see something that supports those claims, I have to treat them as conjecture. Do you blame me? Is it a coincidence that the Brewers have won 6 straight games and have played good baseball since he's been put in there as the left handed version of the platoon at 3B? I sure don't like trying to correlate the presence of one player in the lineup to a teams' wins and losses. Hey, the Brewers haven't lost since Braun got hurt. heck, they also did great last year, before Braun was called up. Coincidence?
  10. rluzinski
    Here's an attempt to quantify the total run value of offense and defense through 8/3 for every player in the league: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pfk_WuYpfdux2FC_hs6ROEQ&gid=1 Methodology: http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/search/label/player%20value Branyan: 145 PA, .925 OPS: 10.8 RAR* +.9 fielding runs (3B) = 11.7 RUNS Counsell: 178 PA, .666 OPS: 0.8 RAR* + 1.4 fielding runs (SS, 2B & 3B) = 2.2 RUNS *RAR is "run above average", which is the theoretical average offensive value over freely available talent (AAA, cheap vets). Since August 3, Branyan: .250/.500/.250/.750 (6 PA) Counsell: .143/.217/.190/.408 (23 PA) To be fair, had Counsell played only at 3B, I'd guess his fielding runs would be higher, as SS and 2B are harder than 3B. Still, it's clear what we are up against. Counsell has no offensive value at all, so it's pretty hard for him to keep up at a premium offensive position. The best defensive 3B in the league couldn't make up that terrible offense (look at Chipper Jones and Rollins). Counsell just has no business starting at 3B.
  11. rluzinski
    Choosing to say he is 0-9 and using the tiniest sample available, and then saying Ned should not go with the hot hand...at best, is spinning in circles. What are you trying to say here, that Counsell was and still is hot? That 9 AB doesn't matter (which I agree with)? Personally, I'll just stick with his three year numbers to prove that he is a terrible hitter. Throw in that he'll be 38 this month and it's not hard to see why he's living up to his preseason ZiPS projection of .232/.307/.315/.622. Defense does have value, it is just difficult to measure. I think you need to reread the thread because his defense has been considered and respected throughout. Even the greatest Counsell detractors have recognized that Counsell is easily the superior defender. The question is, is that defensive upgrade at 3B worth .140-.150 points of SLG? That's roughly equal to .050 points of OBP and .050-.060 points of SLG, if you are curious. I just don't see it. I know you've been defending Counsell for the last couple of years but trying to defend Counsell getting significant playing time at 3B is a lost cause. He should be used as the middle infield utility player he was signed to be.
  12. rluzinski
    Please, no one tell me that Counsell just had a quality AB, because it took him 10 pitches to K. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
  13. rluzinski
    And if Yost is trying to maximize defense, Counsell should be starting over Weeks and Durham at 2B, where the defensive advantage is greater and offensive difference is lower. OK, I'm done polluting the IGT, promise!
  14. rluzinski
    Why is it an exageration? Counsell: .226/.321/.304/.625 Branyan: .252/.340/.588/.928 Now, it's not reasonable to assume Branyan can keep that SLG that high. .475 might be more realistic. The sad think is that Counsell is hitting at right around his preseason projections! To dismiss the difference in offense between Counsell and Branyan as no big deal allows you to dismiss the offensive differences between most of the players on the team. I think people have just been brainwashed into thinking that Counsell isn't that bad of a hitter. In reality, at this point in his career, he's terrible.
  15. rluzinski
    How many hits does Counsel have during this 5 game winning streak? O right, that irrelevant .... or something. Huh?
  16. rluzinski
    In 3 1/2 days, the Brewers' SOS will be .493, so let's not get too excited. About an extra .3 expected wins over the last 40 games.
  17. rluzinski
    whole.When you have people running around saying that the Brewers "should be" 25 games over .500, it's not hard to figure out why there's a disproportionate amount of complaining, relative to the Brewer's on field performance. The Brewers have needed a little luck just to get 16 over. They done extremely well in close games this year. A significant portion of the Brewers' fanbase just do not have realistic expecations from game to game. That includes anyone who's ever muttered the phrase, "Playoff teams don't ..." in response to something the Brewers did. The average playoff team still loses almost 40% of their games! That's not to say that the Brewers never do anything that deserves to be criticized. You just need to look at the big picture, though. One play or one game isn't telling us very much about the season as a whole.
  18. rluzinski
    I think it's just silly that many baseball fans still view the wildcard as some shameful way of making the post season. The Brewers may win the wildcard with 93 wins, while the DBacks might win their division with 81. Yout ell me which team should be more proud of their regular season accomlishments.
  19. rluzinski
    The way I look at it is like this....when playing blackjack, and you get dealt a blackjack and the dealer turns up an ace....do you buy insurance? I don't. I don't because it's statistically the wrong thing to do. It's a sucker's bet. But it only takes one guy to not know the odds to make Vegas some money.
  20. rluzinski
    Tim Allen and Sparky were talking about this after the game tonight. They both agreed....a winning attitude wants the Cardinals to win. A losing attitude is rooting for the Cubs. Yes, rooting for the outcome that gives the Brewers the best chance to reach the playoffs is a loser's attitude. Makes a hell of a lot of sense.
  21. rluzinski
    Kaplers' 1 for 7 doesn't sound so bad anymore! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  22. rluzinski
    Bill said "shame on all the fans that left after the second homerun in the 8th inning." I left in the 7th, when it was tied, so HA! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  23. rluzinski
    Well, my 10th month old was acting up at the game, so I've been home about 2.5 hours. Kind of an odd feeling. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  24. rluzinski
    Kapler betting 3, you know Ned you don't have to have the left fielder bat 3 all the time. If it had been earlier in the year, Kapler would be batting 4th... so there!
  25. rluzinski
    How many Cy Young pitchers have had 15 wins or less? Webb will get his 20+ wins and that will most likely be the end of that: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/cy
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