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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I don't like knowing that the top two hitters in the lineup probably have an expected .320 OBP between the two of them tonight. That is not a good way to get your offense going. Owell, I'll just pretend that Braun is really the 4th leadoff guy!
  2. rluzinski
    You could simply limit home runs to lower the run envoronment but that would result in lower, more "boring" games. I wish baseball could make strong ball strategies more valuable in a high run environment (make it easier to steal, for example) but I doubt they'll ever make any significant rule changes to make it happen.
  3. rluzinski
    You're assuming teams are pricing risk correctly. Given that they have problems pricing veteran talent, I have my doubts. I was taking more exception to the idea that it only takes one team to ruin it for the others. A share your doubt about teams appreciating the risk involved, especially for pitchers. Sure the salaries are artificially low for pre-arby players, but it's more than made up for from that point on. If it "more than makes up for it", wouldn't owners not be spending less on players with repect to revenue? If I'm, looking at this wrong (I never got past Econ 101), someone let me know, plesae.
  4. rluzinski
    Here's what the average start looked like last year in the NL: IP: 5 2/3 6.1 hits 3.1 earned runs per 6 IP 2 BB 4 Ks I'm not going to offer an opinion with regard to how Bush's performance was overall, but the results was pretty much the definition of mediocre. I'd take that from my #3-#5 anyday. Bush has been in the rotation because he's had some success in the majors; not because of any supposed bias coaches or management might have towards him. If he pitches like he did during his last start, he'll be in the league for a long time. If he pitches like he did during his first two starts, he'll be out of the league very quickly. Melvin isn't just making personnel decisions based on the results of three starts in 2008, anyway. That's probably a small consideration, compared to everything else. He's also considering past performance, player health, arby time, to name a few. If we are trying to speculate on any future personnel moves, we need to do the same. He's not pulling up the 2008 Milwaukee stats and picking the best numbers.
  5. rluzinski
    Baseball salary inflation is different and separate from general price inflation. Salary inflation in baseball will only slow down when fans stop paying higher ticket prices, stop watching games on TV, stop buying merchandise etc. I understand that, which is why I pointed out that team revenue gains are actually ahead of player salary gains over the last 5 years. Shouldn't we expect those revenues gains to level out at some point, however? Tampa is taking a huge risk that probably isn't worth it, and other teams will pay for it. All it takes is one to set precedent. If it actually isn't worth it, other teams won't follow suit. Teams spend more and more money on players because they know they ARE worth it, generally speaking. To call for owners to keep salaries artificially low (lower than market value) is to call for the return of collusion. The only reasons fans jump all over player salaries is because it's public knowledge. Owners are smart enough to keep their growing check books private.
  6. rluzinski
    That's more than Philly got for Helms. The Phillies got $750k back for trading Helms, so that far from nothing.
  7. rluzinski
    I don't really understand why this upsets people. If a player wants to leave some potential money on the table to have the security of a long term, guaranteed contract, more power to them. If Tampa is willing to roll the dice and risk the chance of paying money on an injured player, more power to them. Risk vs. Reward. Also, according to Forbes, players' salaries haven't even kept up with team revenue the last 5 years: "When it comes to players, owners are becoming more tight-fisted. During the past five seasons, player costs (salaries, bonuses and benefits) have fallen to 56% of revenue from 66%. As a result, operating income (in the sense of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) averaged over $16 million per team for the second straight year." I think fans should be getting angry at the disparity in revenue between teams, not how much of the pie the players get. Players don't create the product, they basically are the product.
  8. rluzinski
    I don't think you weight the results of their respective starts this year very much. Lots of other things to consider.
  9. rluzinski
    MLB inflation is about 10% a year and will continue to rise as long as teams keep making more money. At some point, you'd think that it would have to slide towards regular inflation, no? I don't really know much about this kind of stuff but, is the US inflation rate really that out of control? It was 4.28% in Jaunary: http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/CurrentInflation.asp Wouldn't our parents laugh at us for thinking that's insanely high, wouldn't they? I mean, it was over 13% in 1980! Also, it appears there are some signs of inflation slowing down: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/17/business/17econ.html?ref=worldbusiness I guess I'm not ready to freak out just yet.
  10. rluzinski
    According to gameday, he threw a changeup to Ludwick (the first batter) that got smoked for a double.
  11. rluzinski
    Rluz, I think you need a title. Like "Pitch f/x guru" or something. Those graphs are so cool it's sickening. I'm just getting started. There a guys who are basically experts at slicing the data up. If there's a 15 MPH difference between fastball and changeup, I would think it would be easier for the hitter to detect changeup. But with the slight change of 6-7 MPH, it seems like it would be nearly impossible to detect. As long as he gets a fastball or two by them first, that changeup could be devastating. I think the average is about 7 MPH. As long as you keep the delivery consistent between the fastball and changeup, I always thought that the bigger the difference, the better. I think the batters pickup most of the "velocity data by looking at the pitcher's delivery.
  12. rluzinski
    I took a look at Sheets' third start, focusing on all those glorious changeups: Ben Sheets' Third Start: Changeup Edition 9 changeups. 4 outs, of which were swinging strikes. I wonder if he's going right back to being a two pitch pitcher or will this give him a little confidence with the changeup going forward?
  13. rluzinski
    With 2 nice comeback wins and one "almost" in less than a week, I hope it keeps Brewer fans a little bit more hopeful for comebacks going forward. Some of the "game over" crew missed out on a couple of great games. Cold bats can turn bright red in a heart beat! I've been really also really enjoying the fact that our bullpen has kept the Brewers in games as of late. I was very skeptical of all the high priced arms Melvin got from the island of the misfits. So far, the results have been good, at least.
  14. rluzinski
    It's not like I want him to starting ripping at every first pitch from now on. It would just be nice to see him do it a little more so it's not so obvious every time that he's going to take it. Make the pitcher throw you a real pitch, not an easy strike. I think that Weeks has a nice line at 0-0 (apart from having no strikeouts on that pitch count) is because he DOES call the pitcher's bluff once and awhile and hacks at that fastball. perhaps he could do it more but it's not like he never does it, either. It's hard to say how often a batter SHOULD swing at the first pitch.
  15. rluzinski
    This is generally why I never give up on a 3 run game. IT might look bleak but it's not impossible. A lot of work left, though. wow that was one of the worst at bats ever! did he even swing? And if he swings at the first pitch and pops up, it's also "the worst AB ever." Let's be honest with ourselves. As fans, we care about the outcome more than anything else.
  16. rluzinski
    IS there an email available for Jim Powell?
  17. rluzinski
    Parra's first 9 balls: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/parraballs.png The top and bottom of the strikezone is obviously adjusted for each batter but if the ump was off, it probably wasn't by much. You'd think he would have gotten at least a couple of those, however.
  18. rluzinski
    Even during Gross's "terrible" performance in 2007, he had a higher OBP than Hardy has ever had. People don't like Gross? Fine. I just don't see how someone can look at this objectively and preferr Hardy over Gross against a righthanded pitcher. Parra has thrown 25 pitches. 9 strikes, 16 balls. Not good. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
  19. rluzinski
    I've observed over time that teams that score late in games the night before, even if they come up short, will often follow that up with a good offensive effort the next day. Yeh, about 50% of the time.
  20. rluzinski
    Lets go back and compare their line-ups, their starting staffs their bullpens. What's changed? Nothing has to change for anything to happen in 15 games. That's why many of us are trying to drive home. What's significant about a team's record in April of where it currently puts them in the standings, not what it tells you about the relative strength of two teams.
  21. rluzinski
    I don't have swing/take data for Weeks on first pitches but he's gotten on base on 97 of his career 1412 PAs on the first pitch. It resulted in this: .345/.387/.540/.927 I don't know if he should swing more often on the first pitch but it looks to me like he's found some decent pitches to hit when he does.
  22. rluzinski
    No, I think he said 8-6 is winning baseball -- which it is, but so is 11-4 then. I took it as him making two, seperate points. First, the record of any team after 15 or so starts tells us little about their actual, cumulative skill. Second, despite the Brewers' offense not doing very well early, they are still 2 games over .500 and are are basically right where we would expect them to be. Or I am wrong. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif It is my opnion that trying to make generalizations about a team based on 15 games is a waste of time. We haven't seen enough to make any meaningful obervations, IMO.
  23. rluzinski
    I hate 1B that can play defense. Would have been tied!
  24. rluzinski
    Never give up!
  25. rluzinski
    It feels like Riske is on pace for about 200 innings this year. Is here really needed here?
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