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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I'm not going to worry about these kind of comments until Weeks is back and Hairston is available to play SS. RR isn't going to say something like, "We are not happy with Betancourt's production and as soon as Weeks is back, he's going to lose a lot of playing time." That said, I don't have a lot of faith that this is going to end well. Look forward to one armed flails at balls in the dirt and slow rollers to the left of 2B being hits in the playoffs!
  2. rluzinski
    Anything but getting swept is fine for the Brewers in the long run. If we go 1-2 we are up 9 1/2 with 24 to play.\ Agreed. I'd be fine with the Brewers finishing 2-4 against the Cards because that's basically the end of them.Dickson is making his first big league start and I know we usually struggle in those games... How do you know that?
  3. rluzinski
    I'm fearful that Counsell will get a start at 3B before Green does. RR may be too scared to test McGehee's fragile psyche (I don't think McGehee's psyche is fragile but I could see RR guarding against upsetting a veteran).
  4. rluzinski
    I think the last two weeks of the regular season are going to be very boring.
  5. rluzinski
    It's still possible for the Cardinals to catch Phillies.
  6. rluzinski
    With Green, there's no evidence either way that he's going to be a bust or he's going to be starter-worthy. All that you can do is start him a few times and get him pinch hit at bats and see how he does. After seeing what Gamel has done with the Brewers, I certainly wouldn't feel comfortable inserting him in the line-up over McGehee, and he's been pretty solid in AAA as well. Do people really think that we can judge Gamel based on his career 194 PAs over basically 3 years? Most of those came in 09 when he was 23 and he OPSed .760 with inconsistent playing time. He had 17 PAs last year and 27 this year. In other threads people are saying they don't feel comfortable with Gamel at 1B next year because he "hasn't done anything" at the MLB level. The guy has dominated in the minors and would probably have been a starter on a lot of teams for the past couple of years. He just hasn't gotten the chance here and he hasn't had any consistent playing time in his very little time up here.44 PA and 9 starts in the last 2 years. There's really been nothing to see at all because he hasn't played.
  7. rluzinski
    If Green did that, he would immediately be accused of not being able to handle the pressure of a pennant race.
  8. rluzinski
    Bullpen has not helped Greinke over the last couple of starts.
  9. rluzinski
    It is pretty bad to take out someone's best game as everyone would look worse and you are manipulating data but here you go: Since the All-Star break without the 3 HR game: .263/.315/.368/.683 Well, take out his best and worst games to be fair then. The 3 HR game skews #'s more than an 0 for 5 with 5 K's. I think it's just to use the 3-run game as a qualifier when mentioning the supposed turnaround because it's a huge outlier and consistent offense beats inconsistent offense. I don't think it should be mentioned in isolation as some extra evidence but there is NO justification for excluding it under any circumstances. It happened.
  10. rluzinski
    No but Hairston can. I am giddy with the thought of Weeks coming back. Please Ron! I will forgive everything!
  11. rluzinski
    I like SB or going 1st to 3rd, etc. But the hit and run is stupid and will always be stupid. I'm almost never going to complain about a guy getting caught stealing when he's a good base steeler overall, nor will I complain much about a runner being gunned down at the plate with 2 outs. It's some of the other stuff that is annoying me. For instance, RR needs to cut down on the constant bunting and hit and runs, IMO.
  12. rluzinski
    Can someone just tie RR up and lock him in the manager's office? This offense would be better.
  13. rluzinski
    I would like to think for Casey's sake that if it were that easy, he would have been doing it all year, threat to his job or not. Guys like McGegee have literally millions of dollars riding on their performance. Lack of motivation is not an issue.
  14. rluzinski
    It's a great luxury not to have to rush Weeks back. As for the potential batting order when he does come back, as NYChez suggested, any option will strengthen the middle of the order.
  15. rluzinski
    Outfielders (6)BraunMorganHartGomezKotsayGamel Infielders (6)FielderWeeksBetancourtMcGeheeHairstonGreen Catchers (2)LucroyKottaras Starting Pitchers (4)GreinkeMarcumGallardoWolf Bullpen (7)AxfordRodriguezSaitoHawkinsLoeEstradaNarveson
  16. rluzinski
    If all this means is that Green get's starts at 3B over Wilson and Counsell, it's still an improvement. You have to believe Wilson's days are numbered right?
  17. rluzinski
    It's not saying much but Kotsay would be expected to outhit Counsell or Wilson and I don't think you need 5 guys who can play a middle infield position. That said, De La Cruz is gone for sure, no?
  18. rluzinski
    Maybe it will be in the future, but it looks as though BP's site isn't as up to date as Cots. Cots is their source so that's odd.
  19. rluzinski
    Go through your list and see how often those teams signed the player without offering them the most lucrative deal. Generally speaking, the top teams are the top teams because they can AFFORD to pay a premium price for the top players. It's not like Sabathia chose the Yankee's for non-monetary reasons. Sure, all else equal, many would choose the better team but it's a minor factor at best. "You don't know if they WILL make the playoffs? Well no kidding, no one does. They'd still be the favorites if Prince comes back. This predicting the future stuff doesn't work as you just explained in the second paragraph. " I think you need to reread what I was responding to (overpaying for Prince to "win now"). You have to have some confidence in being able to predict future performance to justify that.
  20. rluzinski
    It depends on how much of a price difference we're talking. For less than a 5% difference I bet it happens all the time. But if we're talking $100 million vs $120 million it doesn't count for much. I think that's reasonable. Tie breaker for sure. 5%? Probably. An extra year and $20 mil? Hell no.
  21. rluzinski
    They spent 30M more than the Brewers this year. It has nothing to do with consistent and competitive, no one went to see them when they played in the Metrodome. It has to do with charging higher ticket prices in a brand new stadium.And not really being that small of a market to begin with.
  22. rluzinski
    Those are all great questions but I'm not sure how much I can add. I've seen studies that have shown the average pitcher loses about .5 MPH per year and I've seen an average dun value be associated for that drop (independent of the absolute velocity). I think the fact that almost no (non-knuckleballer) major league pitchers throw below 86-87 MPH suggests that there is some minimum threshold. Greg Maddux is the only guy that comes to mind and he was excellent in every other regard.
  23. rluzinski
    Cot's Contract Site all Pertified: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/
  24. rluzinski
    I think the difference between 1B and LF so far as 'easiness' is mostly a function of athleticism. You could say that about all the positions. The more athletic you are, the higher the odds that you can handle a harder position. If you can't run, judge flies or throw well, you play 1B. There's been a lot of work done trying to estimate the differences between the various positions. One strategy is to see how well players who change positions do at each position. Carlos Lee is a better 1B than he is a LF and that is typical. Bill James looked at offfense averages at each positions, which yields similar results: http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Defensive_Spectrum Some more discussions: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/defense_spectrum/
  25. rluzinski
    Put another way, if Fielder was subtracted from the 2011 Brewers and Gamel was the 1B from Opening Day until now, what would our record be? Would we still be in 1st?Easily. No player is worth 10 wins over even a full season.
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