"However, in my opinion, when a team with as much overall talent as the Brewers plays .200 baseball over 10 games, I think it is reasonable to expect a dramatic swing to the other side against the worst offense in the NL, as well as the Pirates." 1. The Brewers are a good team but no one projected them as elite. I saw projections from around 85-88 wins. That's a marginal playoff team. 2. I think you are falling for the gambler's fallacy. How the Brewers performed in the previous road trip has virtually no bearing on how we expect them to perform now. 3. As I alluded to in my previous response, I don't care who you are playing, you aren't going to expect any team to play at such an elevated win percentage. Sure, you will see it from time to time just like you will flip 5 out from 6 heads in a row from time to time. Possible not probable. Just to give some perspective, Greinke yesterday and now Marcum today are going up against an apparently very bad offensive team. Vegas odds resulting win probability for both games: Greinke Game: -142 59% win probability Marcum Game: -170 63% win probability Those are fairly typical lines for a pretty strong favorite. It's fair to say that if the Brewers are going to quickly get back in the race, this is the place to do it. The Brewers are at home and are facing pretty weak teams. It's not fair to say that the Brewers should be expected to take 5 of the next 6. The most likely outcome for the next 6 games is somewhere between 3-3 and 4-2.