This is simply not the case. If teams are in a position to contend come mid-July they are more willing to overpay via trade for a postseason run. Because of this, there is generally a hotter market for the rental player amongest contending teams. Also, in Bumgarner's specific case, he's coming back from a injury/decline, so if he has a monster, bounce back to form first half, his trade value will skyrocket from where it's currently at. "I am willing to give up more for 15 starts and no draft pick than I am for 32 and a draft pick." You understand my skepticism.