And the previous three years were .275, .254 and .247. I don't think either is a bad target, but I'd prefer Shields. Possibly another year of control as well as buying low. Some comparisons between Garza and Shields. I'm not using Shields' 2010 season to show just how similar they are. Garza - 3.86 ERA Shields - 4.01 ERA Garza - 3.05 BB/9 Shields 1.93 BB/9 Garza - 7.10 K/9 Shields - 7.15 K/9 Garza - 1.09 HR/9 Shields - 1.15 HR/9 They're pretty much the same. The only difference between Shields' 2010 and his previous three seasons is a 3% drop in his LOB%, a .354 BABIP (career .314) and the highest HR/FB% of his career (13.8% 2010 to 11.7% career.) Now if you think that's an outlier, he's an excellent buy low candidate. If you think that's going to be a trend, you would probably want Garza instead. I think it's an outlier, so I'd be willing to gamble on Shields.