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Who's "winning" the Dan Haren trade?


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After 8 starts with Arizona, Dan Haren is 4-2, with a 3.04 ERA, and a .99 WHIP.

 

In Oakland, Dana Eveland is 3-3, with a 3.23 ERA, and a 1.24 WHIP, while Greg Smith is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA, and a 1.06 WHIP.

 

Arizona got off to a great start, and is absolutely getting what they wanted - a great chance to win now.

 

Oakland got off to a great start, and is absolutely getting what they wanted - good, affordable pitching, which they will control for several seasons.

 

At this point, which team do you think got the best end of the deal?

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Neither, because like you said.... both teams got what they wanted. Though I have to admit I don't know much about Dan Haren's career numbers, so I don't know if the start he is having is a typical one for him. But I like the trade for both teams, both got what they wanted, I don't think you can declare a winner until later in the season.
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Eveland's got a BABIP of .274 & a LOB% of 74.3 -- neither all that off, but a sign that he will likely regress at least a bit.

Greg Smith -- .234 BABIP, 76.2% LOB

For the A's, don't forget CF Carlos Gonzalez (Triple-A Sacramento): .303/.361/.424 (BABIP .355). That's probably below his projections, too -- so in spite of that BABIP, I'd be surprised if Gonzalez didn't finish the season with a better OPS.

Haren's .263 BABIP will likely grow, but his 68.3% LOB is in line with (if not lower than) career norms. Also, his contract is ridiculously cheap -- probably the deal-breaker for me in assessing this trade:
'08: $4M, '09: $5.5M, '10: $6.75M club option ($250k buyout). Escalators can increase '09 by up to $750k, & '10 by up to $1M.

I think that, given the timing for ARI, they got what they felt they needed when they needed it. It was wise imo to snag a top-tier, in-his-prime SP to run out right when your young position-player prospects (Upton, Jackson, Drew, Reynolds, Young, etc.) are MLB-ready. It ensures that a solid SP rotation got even better, all while the DBacks can afford it due to their young guys still being 'cheap.' Once they have to pick & choose which young guys to keep around, they'll have gotten 2-3 seasons during Haren's prime already, & can flip him for prospects or re-sign him as they see fit.

It's also fair to point out that Eveland & Smith have a pretty extreme pitcher's park as their homefield, whereas Chase Field has been known as a hitter's park. I feel that getting the proven elite performer in Haren (at lower than 'lg.avg. SP' cost), with ARI's timing, is the 'win' so far. Especially since the DBacks can use him to help re-stock their farm system down the road if need be. If he had a monstrous contract, I'd probably think of it as a push.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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I'd say that Arizona got the better end because they now have a better shot at winning the World Series (barring significant injuries). But, just like any trade, we won't know until about 3-4 years from now.
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I think that, given the timing for ARI, they got what they felt they needed when they needed it. It was wise imo to snag a top-tier, in-his-prime SP to run out right when your young position-player prospects (Upton, Jackson, Drew, Reynolds, Young, etc.) are MLB-ready. It ensures that a solid SP rotation got even better, all while the DBacks can afford it due to their young guys still being 'cheap.' Once they have to pick & choose which young guys to keep around, they'll have gotten 2-3 seasons during Haren's prime already, & can flip him for prospects or re-sign him as they see fit.

 

This is exactly why I would say Arizona is winning, and ultimately will win. Their rotation would have been pretty decent without him, really good to downright scary with him. If they get anything at all our of Randy Johnson or Doug Davis...Yikes! Harren takes them from playoff contenders to WS contenders.

 

This is exactly the type of trade I was hoping DM would have been able to make this off season, for all teh reasons you state...given his injury history, sort of pretend Sheets doesn't exist, and set out to strengthen the rotation and aquire a number 1/2 caliber starter. That way if you do end up getting a full year out of Sheets you have a dominant rotation, and you have coverage in the event he gets hurt again - or as it stands right now, coverage for Gallardo's injury.

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I think the deal was good for both teams. Both teams what they wanted whether it was short-term or long-term. ESPN actually has some good analysis of some of the off-season trades and "winners" and "losers" in one of their insider pages. They've deemed this one essentially a fair/push trade.
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I love to see when trades work out that way. Of course, 2 or 3 seasons from now we all might be lauging at the notion that it's a "push". Gotta love the way MLB works!
Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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Oakland's pitching staff (and record) is one of the great stories of the season so far. It goes to show just how important pitching depth is.

 

Then again, I think you can make a claim that Arizona is the class of the NL and perhaps MLB. And Haren is a big part of that too. If Arizona wins the NL, it will be hard to second guess it.

 

Certainly, this isn't anywhere near as lop-sided as the Mulder trade turned out for Oakland.

 

Is it fair to say that the Davis/Eveland trade is the concensus worst move of Melvin's era? And, frankly, it's not really surprising that it turned out that way, considering Melvin gave up the most valuable current player in the deal, Davis, and the player with the highest upside, Eveland. That's a formula for losing a lot of deals.

 

Robert

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Just curious...

 

Anyone have handy who the Athletic's got when they traded Mulder and Hudson?

 

Hudson has worked out very well for Atlanta. And Mulder worked out pretty well for the Cardinals. (They did win a World Series after that trade)

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http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif Wow! This first deal just made me shake my head & chuckle:

 

OAK trades Mark Mulder to STL for: SP Dan Haren, RP Kiko Calero, 1B Daric Barton

 

OAK trades Tim Hudson to ATL for: OF Charles Thomas, RP Juan Cruz (now with ARI), RP Dan Meyer

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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