Wild Card Speculation (Latest: 10 Game September Roadtrip)

[dlk9s]

I don't think the Cubs have any real advantage over the Brewers in the playoff pitching department. Their advantage is in the offensive department and it's huge. The Brewers' #7 and #8 hitters are just terrible.

I think CC/Sheets versus Zambrano/Harden is pretty much a tie, except that CC can eat up innings in a way that Harden can't. I think Bush/Suppan and Marquis/Lilly is pretty much a tie, as well. Where the Cubs have the advantage in the starting rotation is Dempster over Parra. Parra is great when he's on, but as we've seen, he's had control issues which have cost him the big inning sometimes and have limited his innings because of high pitch counts. Dempster, in the meantime, has shown no signs of slowing down and is regularly going 6,7,8 innings and giving up 2 runs or less. So, overall, I'd give the slight edge to the Cubs for starting pitching.

 

Their big advantage is their relief pitching. I feel better about our relievers than most, but the Cubs do have a pretty big advantage there. Marmol and Wood on the back end, a guy like Cotts in the middle, and two very solid long relievers in Lieber and Marshall make it very hard to come back on this team.

 

But anyway, this is a wildcard discussion, so back to it.

[kmcasper23]

I am somewhat worried about that road trip and if we could go 5-5 I would be happy. However, I think the Cubs will now sweep the Phillies since they won last night. If the Brewers can hold their own and continue to knock off the struggling Pirates like they should, the Crew could be 7 games ahead of the Phillies at the end of the weekend. Then we return home for the next 10 and can really distance ourselves from the Phillies before we get there. I also expect the Cards to drop two out of 3 in Houston and then they go to Arizona for 3 more so we can definitely make up some ground now. We need to take advantage cause Philly ends the season at home with 6 home games vs Atlanta and Washington. That kinda scares me, but Philly really doesn't have the pitching so hopefully they drop a couple of those games.

 

I would feel a lot better right now if we didn't blow that lead in the 8th against St Louis. I hope dropping that game doesn't come back to bite us. At least 10 of our next 13 games are against Pittsburgh, SD, and Cincy.

[rluzinski]

The chance of the wildcard coming out of the NL West is extremely remote at this point.

[dlk9s]

Crap. I just realized that St. Louis is going to miss both Webb and Haren next week.

[razzzorsharp]

And they miss Oswalt for the Houston series as well.

[Ennder]

CC=Harden, Sheets> Zambrano, Brewers #3 vs Dempster isn't an overmatch. I find it hard to believe they have some insurmountable advantage.

 

Over a 7 game series anything can happen, that is how a team like the rockies can make the world series as about the 7th best team in the NL last year. I wouldn't worry much about playoff matchups, the biggest battle is just getting to the playoffs.

[And That]

I'd take Sabathia over Harden any day... CC has shown the ability to go deep into games with effectiveness, whilst Harden has limited availability past the 6th.

 

The playoffs are such a crapshoot, though... a couple bad games and you're done.

[rluzinski]

"But anyway, this is a wildcard discussion, so back to it."

 

I said playoff pitching to begin with. 3 man rotation. I'll take CC/Sheets/Parra over the Cubs' options, for sure. A bullpen of Torres/Bush/Suppan isn't bad, either. I see no advantage to the Cubs.

[danzig6767]

I'd rather win the wild card than win the division

 

Cubs will likely face Arizona and if we win the wild card, the Mets or Phillies, i think the Mets win the East

 

In a short series, Arizona has the starting pitching that could shut down teams. The Mets only have Santana and then there is a big drop off.

[lcbj68c]

The 2nd of 12 teams the Brewers need to eliminate in the Wild Card chase could fall tomorrow. San Diego, I'm looking at you! Overall magic number down to 22.

[FidoMcCokefiend]

Updated after this evenings games.

 

Green row = hypothetical Brewers remaining games

CHC row = what they would need to do to be overtaken by Brewers

Other rows = what those teams would have to do to overtake Brewers

* = division leaders

 

http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/3171/playoffs830by6.jpg

[InBraunWeTrust]

Phillies miss Sabathia, which kind of blows. I think we should start McClung tomorrow, even though he pitched tonight. It would be much nicer having Sabathia going against the Mets and Phillies.

[sbrylski]

Awesome chart, Fido.

 

 

And in case anyone missed it, we have eliminated the first team from wild card contention:

 

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/ABPub/2008/06/23/2008013857.jpg

 

SEE YOU IN 2009, WASHINGTON!

Next on the docket, San Diego with a elimination number of 1.

[sbrylski]

With today's win, we eliminate another team:

 

http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0aMt6BN1IkebR/340x.jpg

 

See you in 2009, San Diego!

 

Next up, Pittsburgh with an elimination number of 4.

[FidoMcCokefiend]

Updated chart after the less than compelling start to September.

 

Green row is Brewers possible records from here on out

CHC row is what they have to do for the Brewers to overtake them

Rows below MIL are what they need to overtake Milwaukee

 

http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/296/playoffs94actualuq3.jpg

 

Feels like it's pull for the Mets from here on out, hope they win that division and beat up on the Phillies. I don't want to think how much nicer this chart would look at Milwaukee won 2 of 3 vs the Mets...

[Oldcity]

I have a question for those more mathematically inclined than me. The Brewers odds at the playoffs should go up if the second-place wildcard team loses no matter what the Brewers do on that day, because the magic number is shrinking... Correct? I ask, because PECOTA lowered the Crew's odds by about eight-tenths of a point yesterday, despite the Phils and Cards also losing. Why did that happen?

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Stevo - I wonder if that was accounting for the Astros "getting back into it"...as in going from .3% to .8% chance.

 

Brew Crew just has to take care of the business at hand...5-2 over the next 7 would be huge.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Although it doesn't feel like it...remember, the Mets are still behind us too. It would take both the Mets AND Phils to pass us. I like that they'll combine for .500 ball for the next three games. A simple 13-10...given our opponents I think that's a fair expectation, is an almost insurmountable hurdle for those chasing us.

[BrewCityUnit]

I still think 6 wins will get it done....86-76

[razzzorsharp]

I would be happy with 10-10 the rest of the way with 92 wins to end it. I think that would get us in (99% chance at least).

[Ennder]

I have a question for those more mathematically inclined than me. The Brewers odds at the playoffs should go up if the second-place wildcard team loses no matter what the Brewers do on that day, because the magic number is shrinking... Correct? I ask, because PECOTA lowered the Crew's odds by about eight-tenths of a point yesterday, despite the Phils and Cards also losing. Why did that happen?

STL losing to ARI increased the odds that the NL West teams pass us by a small fraction, STL losing to Arizona did the same. Overall the fact that two other teams who we compete with for the wild card winning lowered our odds even though two teams we compete with loss.

[ELCABALLO45]

Games Left

BREWERS (--)
3 vs. Cincinnati (Series tied 6-6)
4 @ Philadelphia (Series tied 1-1)
3 @ Chicago (Chicago leads season series 6-4)
3 @ Cincinnati
3 vs. Pittsburgh (Brewers lead season series 11-1)
3 vs. Cubs

Phillies (4 GB)
3 vs. Florida (Florida leads season series 7-5)
4 vs. Milwaukee (Series tied 1-1)
3 @ Atlanta (Phillies leads season series 10-2)
3 @ Flordia
3 vs. Atlanta
3 vs. Washington (Phillies lead season series 9-6)

Cardinals (5 GB)
3 vs. Chicago (Chicago leads season series 5-4)
3 @ Pittsburgh (Series tied 7-7)
3 @ Cincinnati (Cardinals lead season series 6-3)
3 @ Chicago
4 vs. Arizona (Arizona leads season series 2-1)
4 vs. Cincinnati

Astros (6 GB)
4 vs. Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh leads season series 7-2)
3 vs. Cubs (Astros leads season series 9-6)
3 @ Florida (Astros leads season series 2-1)
3 @ Pittsburgh
3 vs. Cincinnati (Astros lead season series 10-2)
3 vs. Atlanta (Atlanta leads season series 2-1)

Obviously the 4 game set in Phily is going to be huge. Also I find it interesting that the Astros are only 6 games back. But with 21 days left in the regular season, its pretty hard to not be excited right now. (even with how bad we have been playing)

[RU Rah Rah]

I'm a little bit worried about the law of averages with the Pirates. I know they are horrible, but can the Brewers really wind up 14-1 against them for the season series, by sweeping that last 3-game set? But I guess the Phils' record against the Braves is comparable.

[brwrsfan]

Wow, for how bad Pittsburgh is, it's weird that they lead the season series against the Astros 7-2. Let's hope that continues this week, I'd like to eliminate the Astros once and for all....it's hard enough to worry about the 4 teams in front of them.

 

Outside of that though, the Astros do have some favorable matchups...hopefully it's too little too late for them.

[SeriesFinale]

I would be happy with 10-10 the rest of the way with 92 wins to end it. I think that would get us in (99% chance at least).

10-9 now, and it doesn't seem as easy as it might've a few weeks ago. They need to go, say, 6-3 at home and 4-6 on the road. Certainly possible but they now have more road games than home and more games against winning teams than not, most of those on the road (where they also have to play at one of their personal Houses of Horror, GABP).

 

If the Brewers do this (and let's face it, if they are indeed a playoff team, they should), the Phils can't lose more than 4 I believe, the Cards five. Even with that easy schedule for the Phillies, that's a tough row to hoe. Not impossible, but not entirely highly probably, either, I believe.

 

Even with the crummy last week, it appears the Brewers are still in the drivers' seat. But they likely will need to prove they belong these last three weeks by going just over .500.