National League Rookie of the Year (merged with SmartBall's tulo thread and craigharmann's "Braun and Yo for ROY?" thread)

[JJHardy7]

I'm a big fan of Braun (my friends and I made Braun shirts that say We Are All Witnesses that we wear to the games), but Hamilton would be a cool story. The last ROY we had didn't pan out so well...

[Chio151]

Quote:

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think if the Cubs' and Brewers' positions were reversed, the national media would be pulling just as hard for the Brewers to make a race of it. Covering pennant races that end in July kind of sucks in August and September.

 

 

I doubt it! The National Media would be all over the Cubs!!!

The Brewers would be just a blip on the radar screen.

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I agree, there is a very clear and generally accepted bias for the big 3 cities and Boston.

 

Milwaukee cannot get that same level of respect until they win a championship. Chicago just needs to stay about 500 and make the playoffs once every 20 years or so.

[pebadger]

Or maybe a whole bunch of championships. Just ask the San Antonio Spurs.

 

Too many media members are full of BS. They always give the line about rooting for the best story, but all too often that turns into rooting for the easy-to-sell story. That's because the consumer/public is full of BS, too. Too many just want the easy-to-understand stories, or they want complicated stories dumbed down, tarted up and turned into morality plays so that they seem easy to understand.

[Fike85]

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Pence is a total hacker, and those players generally get figured out by the league.

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Jeff Francoeur 2005: 257 ABs, 11 BB, .291 EqA

Jeff Francoeur 2006: 651 ABs, 23 BB, .246 EqA

[splitterpfj]

Braun v Pence

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ROY comparison...if Braun stays anywhere near this productive, he'll bypass Pence easily.

 

To this point, Pence has played in 24 additional games, and has 112 more ABs than Braun...

 

Advantage Braun...

 

Stolen Bases +1, Batting Average, +.008, OBP +.024, SLG, +.074

 

Home Runs are tied at 11 apiece.

 

Advantage Pence...

 

Runs +3, Hits +37, RBI +10

 

A lot can change between now and October, but Braun has a chance to lead Pence in every category listed by season's end, and he's the one playing on a team in the hunt...not to mention the fact that he's in the 3-hole on a team in the hunt.

 

I think our guy has a clear path, barring injury.

[1992casey]

If we extend splitter's stats into a large sample, I'd be voting for Braun because he has better numbers in the areas I personally deem more important. However, I think a lot of voters will prefer the stats in which Pence leads. (Granted, it's all pretty close. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif)

 

I'm going to spell out Rookie of the Year in the thread title simply to make this thread easier to find in the forum's Google search. Also, because this looks like something that will be fun to track as the season goes on, I'm going to add this thread to the designated threads list.

[splitterpfj]

Good idea Casey.

 

To draw your own conclusions as the season plays on, hit this link for a quick comparison of the two players.

 

www.baseball-reference.com/compare.cgi?top=/b/braunry02.shtml

 

Just enter Pence's name in the "search" box for the bottom player, then you can see current season stats for both.

[Crazyk1294]

Braun's 162 game projection (I can only dream):

 G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 40 660 146 231 57 8 45 130 32 4 45 150 .350 .391 .663 1.054

Braun's 2007 Season projection:

 G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG 114 465 103 162 40 6 31 91 23 .350 .391 .663

That sounds like the ROY to me.

 

 

(prettification adjustments --1992casey)

[Phenomenal Smith]

If their rate stats remain about where they are now, but Pence still has more than 100 at bats over Braun, then Pence is the clear choice.

[DrWood]

"When Scotty Po lost out to the D-Train, the major sticking point was the fact that D-Train did it for a contender that won the WS."

 

I guess that's one way to look at it. the other is that Dontrelle was a much better ballplayer than pods, and is one of the most charismatic players, to boot.

[honuswagner21]

I guess I am not a follower of the Astros' farm system but was Pence as highly regarded as Braun was for the Brewers' system? I never heard of him before this year and when he first came up a bunch of people were talking about how touted he was. Did I miss the boat on him?

[splitterpfj]

Over the last month, Ryan Braun...

 

101 ABs, 24 Runs, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 6 Stolen Bases, .386 Ave

[Brew Man Dan]

Not only could Braun win the ROY, but he could set a record for highest single season slugging % by a rookie. He could also become only the fourth rookie to win the batting title, and the second for Milwaukee.

[endaround]

I'm sick of the "if he keeps up this pace he will be ROY!!" talk by people. If Braun keeps up his current pace he's an MVP shoo in. His VORPr or the rate at which his VORP goes up is higher than ARods right now.

[homer]

Quote:

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the other is that Dontrelle was a much better ballplayer than pods

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I disagree. Pods had one of the best rookie campaigns in years - at least by traditional stat analysis. He got shafted.

[StatPipes]

Pence was highly regarded in the stros farm system. He was drafted in the first round and had torn up the minors the last year. Fans had been calling him to be called up for a while, and he was the best hitter in spring training before being sent down. Very similiar to Braun in my opinion. The Brewers and Astros usually seem to let their prospects get more seasoning in the minors than most other clubs.

[Ashford Lando]

Additionally "Honus",

 

Pence was actually drafted by the Brewer's in the 40th Round of the 2002 draft.

 

Not sure of the full story as to why he isn't still here, though.

[1992casey]

Welcome to the forum, Ashford. I hadn't realized the Brewers had drafted Pence.

 

I'm betting there isn't much of a story behind the non-signing, though. If Hunter was that low on every team's depth chart, opting for college would have seemed to simply be the better option for him.

[pogokat]

They just missed with Hunter...it happens sometimes...

[splitterpfj]

Does anyone know the severity of Pence's injury?

 

I think an injury is the only thing that can stop Braun either way, but I'd like to know what's up with Hunter.

[Ennder]

X-rays on Hunter Pence's right wrist revealed no fractures.

 

Pence left Sunday's game in the fourth inning with an injury apparently sustained sliding into second base in the first. The Astros are calling him day-to-day with a sprain, but a DL stint still might be a possibility.

 

That came from Rotoworld though I can't link it from work. Doesn't sound too serious but should let Braun catch up a few AB's at least.

[1992casey]

Here are the current stats. I'm starting to think that Ryan is catching up, and may even be in a position where he could be surpassing Pence:

 [b][u]HR[/u] [u]RBI[/u] [u]BA[/u] [u]OBP[/u] [u]SLG[/u] [u]OPS[/u][/b] Braun 15 42 .338 .387 .657 1.044 Pence 12 45 .330 .355 .564 .919

[RayKingsForemanGrill]

I don't know - I look at those numbers - and taking into account the considerably less at-bats, and I don't see how anyone can not think that Braun is the clear ROY front-runner.

[1992casey]

You reminded me that I forgot to include ABs. Ryan has 201; Hunter has 312.

[jlau20]

BBTN reports 4-6 weeks for Pence.