2009-07-17 Brewers (Suppan) at Cincinnati (Arroyo) : 6:10 PM CT [Brewers lose, 4-0]

[pretendastronaut]

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[pretendastronaut]

Per TH:

 

2B Craig Counsell

CF Mike Cameron

LF Ryan Braun

1B Prince Fielder

3B Mat Gamel

RF Corey Hart

SS J.J. Hardy

C Jason Kendall

RHP Jeff Suppan

[sargennm]

it may not be optimized, but I like this lineup better than most lately.

[brewcrewkid14]

This lineup is almost perfect...

[TauPentaRei]

I miss Rickie Weeks.

 

a lot.

[saget]

Must win.

[Schlitz001]

This lineup is almost perfect...

Swapping Gamel and Cameron would take away the lefty behind Prince and give Gamel some good protection. Really I'm just happy Kendall is out of the leadoff spot.

[brewcrewkid14]

I was thinking the same exact thing schlitz.

[pebadger]

Agreed. I don't like Gamel behind Fielder, either. Gamel strikes out too much to be in that spot, in additon to what Schiltz states.

[sargennm]

Statistically, there is no such thing as protection. Cameron has a better on-base thus far and is great at working counts. I like the lineup as is.

[Schlitz001]

Statistically, there is no such thing as protection.

How so? For instance: when the Dodgers have Eithier in the lineup ahead of Manny Ramirez, his number are much better than when he is lower in the lineup. Also, you often hear managers say, "Well we were forced to pitch to player X with player Y on deck". Clearly there is an effort to pitch to a weaker hitter with an all-star on deck, right?

 

EDIT: Cameron may have a better OBP than Gamel this year, but I don't think that's fair to Gamel since he has a very small sample of major league PAs. Cameron's lifetime OBP is .341, which is much lower than the .369 he's put up so far this year. Also, for reference Gamel is seeing 4.4 pitches/plate appearance this year compared to Cameron's 4.0 P/PA.

[derflotr]

I'm on board with the Cameron/Gamel switch, but I don't have a beef with the lineup tonight. I'm just not optimistic that Macha will stick with something...the double platoon makes it harder.

[sargennm]

How so? For instance: when the Dodgers have Eithier in the lineup ahead of Manny Ramirez, his number are much better than when he is lower in the lineup. Also, you often hear managers say, "Well we were forced to pitch to player X with player Y on deck". Clearly there is an effort to pitch to a weaker hitter with an all-star on deck, right?

Wiser men than I have statistically proven it so. Enjoy:

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2004/09/the-protection-externality-it-doesnt-exist/

[Yeti73]

You put Weeks in that lineup and put Lucroy behind the plate and that is a pretty sweet lineup.

[Yeti73]

Great throw by Kendall!

[sargennm]

Jesus, what is Hardy doing there?

[Schlitz001]

Wiser men than I have statistically proven it so. Enjoy:

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2004/09/the-protection-externality-it-doesnt-exist/

The problem with that is it only measures the outcome of the at-bat, instead of whether or not the batter actually got better pitches to hit, which is really the definition of protection. Having an all-star bat behind you forces a pitcher to throw you more strikes. Gamel or Cameron not hitting those pitches has nothing to do with them being pitches in the strike zone or not. Here is an article supporting protection.

[trwi7]

Good grief Cameron.

[Glennron]

Is there a different camera crew for this series? I've only seen about a total of 7 innings of the last two games, but I can think of at least four fly balls that were caught easily, yet the camera person is zooming in on the outfield crowd like it's a bomb.

[Ranier]

JJ is getting hard to watch this year. I hope he has his normal half and half, because he has a lot of making up to do.

[sargennm]

The problem with that is it only measures the outcome of the at-bat, instead of whether or not the batter actually got better pitches to hit, which is really the definition of protection. Having an all-star bat behind you forces a pitcher to throw you more strikes. Gamel or Cameron not hitting those pitches has nothing to do with them being pitches in the strike zone or not. Here is an article supporting protection.

My initial reaction to the research was concern about the accuracy of the pitch data. The author himself complains about the noise of the data in previous reserach and how that affects results.

 

My concern is echoed by Keith Law in the comments for that article:

 

I'd be concerned about the accuracy of the raw data you're using - the people who compile the pitch-by-pitch data are just stringers, paid $50 per game or so, and I'm not sure how much I trust in their judgment of pitch types. Also, not all pitches of the same type are created equal - an 88 mph fastball and a 96 mph fastball both show up as "fastball" in the data, as do a two-seamer and a four-seamer, to give two hypothetical examples.

It's interesting research, tho. It will be even more so to see that research as pitch tracking becomes more computerized and accurate.

[pebadger]

Ryan Braun says that if the starting pitching was better this game would still be tied.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Soup pitched great!

[hawing]

I know a 3 run deficit shouldn't feel insurmountable...but it kind of does at the moment.

Feel free to show me otherwise, Brewers.

[jwill535]

Can we all finally agree that Gerut is worthless. While he may have had a good year last year, he is pathetic this year. You could have kept Gwynn or Duffy and got the same production and still have Gwynn as trade bait.