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Brewers have standing offer to Alex Gonzalez


Tom H. reports the Brewers have a standing offer to Alex Gonzalez.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/brewers-melvin-decides-moves-not-worth-risks-rm7uasq-182476251.html

 

Invitation to Gonzalez: The Brewers have a standing offer for the return of Gonzalez, who was lost last May to a severe knee injury that since has healed. But they want him as insurance for young shortstopJean Segura, and Gonzalez wants regular work.

"His agent has been very forthright that he's not going to take anything that would indicate he'd be a backup until he exhausts the opportunities to play every day," said Ash. "I can't blame him."

 

I would love to have Gonzalez back as insurance against Jean Segura not panning out for 2013.

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The Brewers have been gracious on approving that Gonzalez should look for a full-time job first and leaving that door open. I like the way they've handled this so far. But, ultimately I don't think the job is out there with the injury question mark.

 

I'm not sure we could find a better mentor for Segura anywhere. If the Brewers are committed to playing Segura at SS I'd be happy if they brought Gonzalez back on a one-year even if he only had about 100 PA's.

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The Brewers have been gracious on approving that Gonzalez should look for a full-time job first and leaving that door open. I like the way they've handled this so far. But, ultimately I don't think the job is out there with the injury question mark.

 

I'm not sure we could find a better mentor for Segura anywhere. If the Brewers are committed to playing Segura at SS I'd be happy if they brought Gonzalez back on a one-year even if he only had about 100 PA's.

You've swayed me from being indifferent on retaining Gonzalez to wanting to see it happen. I still feel confident if SS is manned by Segura & Bianchi, but having Gonzalez back in the fold would be a nice luxury.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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I did a quick whip around MLB to look for teams that might be interested in Gonzalez as a starting SS. This is what I came up with:

 

Pirates

Diamondbacks

Twins

A's

Red Sox

 

It sounds like Stephen Drew will sign with the A's so they would be out.

 

The Red Sox might stick with the slick fielding, no hitting Jose Iglesias (after trading Mike Aviles to the Blue Jays for manager John Farrell).

 

The Cardinals are said to be interested but they have Rafael Furcal coming back.

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I'd be surprised if he gets anything more than an invite to spring training somewhere and/or a non guaranteed contract. He's 36 and off a major injury- not to mention that the market was soft for him last year. I wouldn't object to the Brewers giving him another look, but not if his expectations on pay/playing time are unrealistic.
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The key is the amount of the standing offer. A $3 or $4 million insurance policy tells me they a. don't trust Segura or b. they are using money that should be going into the bullpen.

 

If Gonzalez gets more than $2 or 2.2 million to be a backup, I'd rather they sign Ransom for that role at about $750K.

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If Gonzalez were to re-sign, I'd be pretty comfortable with a roster of hitters that looks like this:

 

starters: IF: Hart, Weeks, Segura/Gonzalez, Ramirez; OF: Braun, Gomez, Aoki, C: Lucroy

reserves: Segura/Gonzalez, Green, Gamel, Schafer, Maldonado

 

And then there are still guys like Bianchi, Gindl, Halton, Morris, Prince, Davis (x2), plus some others I'm probably forgetting as depth in the minors.

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If Gonzalez were to re-sign, I'd be pretty comfortable with a roster of hitters that looks like this:

 

starters: IF: Hart, Weeks, Segura/Gonzalez, Ramirez; OF: Braun, Gomez, Aoki, C: Lucroy

reserves: Segura/Gonzalez, Green, Gamel, Schafer, Maldonado

 

And then there are still guys like Bianchi, Gindl, Halton, Morris, Prince, Davis (x2), plus some others I'm probably forgetting as depth in the minors.

 

 

Green would not be a lock over Bianchi. They are talking about Gamel getting time at 3B and OF in ST.

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I didn't say he would be. I was just stating what I'd be comfortable with.

 

I don't think you need 3 SS's and I like Green more, especially for his bat and that he also can play 3 IF positions plus corner OF.

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...... I'd rather they sign Ransom for that role at about $750K.

 

Isn't the league min $490K next year? I don't know why he would get much more than that, when he has been flopping between the minors and mlb. I doubt there will be a big signing war for the 37 year old.

 

Or is there a veteran minimum wage?

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The key is the amount of the standing offer. A $3 or $4 million insurance policy tells me they a. don't trust Segura or b. they are using money that should be going into the bullpen.

 

If Gonzalez gets more than $2 or 2.2 million to be a backup, I'd rather they sign Ransom for that role at about $750K.

 

Or C. That the Brewers understand the mentoring-role Gonzalez and are willing to pay for that in addition to whatever offensive output bonus he would provide.

 

Also, I'll state this one more time. It seems many people are convinced that Segura will stick at SS. To me at least, this is based on a combination of true optimism (because you want it to come true - a form of homerism) and (2) the small sample-size of decent-to-above-average fielding he provided in 43 games last season (165 total chances in which he made 10 errors).

 

I'm in no way saying he won't, but let's remember that there hasn't been a professional scout alive who has covered Segura and hasn't had some doubt about his glove. In addition, most scouts were automatically scouting him for second base. Most scouts has already written him off at SS (even though the Angels continued to play him there).

 

Answer (A) from should apply to everyone. There shouldn't be anyone out there that doesn't have some worry about Segura and his ability to stick at SS. If there is someone out there that's 100% convinced, then I'm going to bet you may have some homerism in you because you're not looking at this from a statistical, or a scouting perspective.

 

Frankly, we may need to sign Gonzalez more than anyone out there. Because you think the market for starters and relievers is scarce?.....

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I did a quick whip around MLB to look for teams that might be interested in Gonzalez as a starting SS. This is what I came up with:

 

Pirates

Diamondbacks

Twins

A's

Red Sox

 

It sounds like Stephen Drew will sign with the A's so they would be out.

 

The Red Sox might stick with the slick fielding, no hitting Jose Iglesias (after trading Mike Aviles to the Blue Jays for manager John Farrell).

 

The Cardinals are said to be interested but they have Rafael Furcal coming back.

 

pirates are paying Barmes $5+ million to be their starting SS

Posted: July 10, 2014, 12:30 AM

PrinceFielderx1 Said:

If the Brewers don't win the division I should be banned. However, they will.

 

Last visited: September 03, 2014, 7:10 PM

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I did a quick whip around MLB to look for teams that might be interested in Gonzalez as a starting SS. This is what I came up with:

 

Pirates

Diamondbacks

Twins

A's

Red Sox

 

It sounds like Stephen Drew will sign with the A's so they would be out.

 

The Red Sox might stick with the slick fielding, no hitting Jose Iglesias (after trading Mike Aviles to the Blue Jays for manager John Farrell).

 

The Cardinals are said to be interested but they have Rafael Furcal coming back.

 

 

pirates are paying Barmes $5+ million to be their starting SS

 

 

$5.5 million for a 33 year old with an OPS+ of 66. Brilliant! But then the Pirates are made of money with a rich tradition of winning baseball so it's all good.

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Answer (A) from should apply to everyone. There shouldn't be anyone out there that doesn't have some worry about Segura and his ability to stick at SS. If there is someone out there that's 100% convinced, then I'm going to bet you may have some homerism in you because you're not looking at this from a statistical, or a scouting perspective.

 

Frankly, we may need to sign Gonzalez more than anyone out there. Because you think the market for starters and relievers is scarce?.....

I think it's incredibly unfair to state that confidence in Segura's defensive abilities is purely linked to homerism. What I saw, from a 'scouting' standpoint last season, was a guy with great speed, plus range, plus arm strength, good accuracy, and ok to good hands. I think that's a very fair assessment of Segura's defense as it currently stands.

 

While you're clearly more bearish on him than that, in our PM exchange on Segura, you clarified that your main concern (and iirc the only negative you'd read from scouting reports) is how his defense will change as his thicker lower half fills out as he ages. I think it's also an objective statement to say that him filling out isn't something to be terribly concerned about until his late 20s or so. He's under team salary control until his age-28 or 29 season, iirc. So to me, the point isn't to blame him for filling out and losing athleticism & range when that hasn't happened yet. Let's instead focus on how he projects through the athletic prime of his career, which is when the Brewers control him.

 

I'm optimistic about what Segura will bring to the table, defensively, over the next six seasons. But not because of blindly homeristic optimism - instead, because of what i saw from him at the big league level. Admittedly, it was a small sample... but I'm not examining stats here, I'm analyzing physical tools. Whether anyone believes me or not, objectivity is one of the things i value and strive for most. In my as-objective-as-I-can-be opinion, Segura is going to be an asset as a SS defender over the next six seasons.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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"I still think he ends up at second base in the long run, where he could be outstanding with the glove. Offensively, without any Triple-A time there's a good chance he'll have some adjustment issues in the majors...."

-John Sickels

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/7/26/3189143/los-angeles-angels-promote-jean-segura

 

"Segura presents as a bull in a china shop, muscling his way through at bats and defensive plays without refinement."

-Mike Newman

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/milwaukee-brewers-shortstop-jean-segura-fangraphs-scouting-report-video/

 

" Segura has been playing shortstop all season, but has made 17 errors and Texas League sources see him as a second baseman long-term. His arm is good enough for third base, but it seems doubtful that he'll have the home run power normally considered necessary for the position."

-Sickels, again but in-person observations

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/6/26/3118576/minor-league-prospect-notes-june-26-2012

 

And Baseball America never had him envisioned as the Angels' starting shortstop.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2012/2612845.html

 

And from Saturday's Winter League Report:

"Mini-slump for Jean Segura, 0-for-4 with an error - 9th error in 30 DWL games, that ratio won't fly at the big league level in 2013. Even after a 2-for-17 stretch, Segura's bat is only "down" to .325."

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=28755&start=140

 

"Segura exclusively played second base until 2011 when the organization moved him to shortstop. He’s currently fringe-average at the position but he has the potential to develop into an average defensive shortstop."

-Marc Hulet

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jean-segura-gets-the-call-from-angels/

 

Now, the guy may have improved during his 43 games in the majors. You don't see if from a statistical-perspective though. The league average in the NL for total chances among shortstops is roughly 550 over the course of a normal SS season. Give Segura that and he EASILY leads the National League in errors at SS. ((550/165)x10=33.33 errors per season at his current error rate) Starlin Castro led the league with 27 and he had 758 total chances at SS. This projection is assuming Segura plays a modest season at 130 games as a second year player. He plays all season? 40 errors?

 

Now, how is this incredibly unfair? Statistically, I'm actually floating the numbers in HIS direction. And we haven't even spoken about any injury possibilities......

 

Still don't think Gonzalez should be an immediate priority for the Brewers?

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Anyone who is certain that Segura will be the starting SS for the Brewers all season is a fool. He might well be. I hope he is. But the Brewers have to have plan B. I like Alex Gonzalez for that Plan B.

 

I'd concur on the essence of this: The Brewers HAVE to have a Plan B. I also really like Gonzalez as Plan B.

 

Lack of a good Plan B in 2012 left us with Cesar Izturis & Cody Ransom getting lots of playing time -- especially lots of ABs -- which wasn't a good thing since the NL doesn't have a DH for pathetic shortstops.

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Still don't think Gonzalez should be an immediate priority for the Brewers?

I never said he shouldn't be brought in... in fact, a few posts earlier in this thread I said you'd swayed me from 'indifferent' to 'rooting for it to happen.'

 

It was pretty clear I responded about Segura's defensive skillset only. And while there are a lot of scouting reports on him, most of them focus on what he'll eventually become... which isn't what the Brewers realistically need to worry about, as they only control him through age 28 or 29.

 

I dunno, I tried to carefully lay out exactly what I saw from watching essentially every game he played last season at the MLB level. I don't see how scouting reports from MiLB prospect watchers, who probably see any given player less than five times/season in person (& imo that's being generous), refute what Segura showed in the bigs. Again, I'm not talking about stats, but tools.

 

Since it's apparently not clear if I only say it once in a post, I think that it'd be both a good idea to sign Gonzalez (if possible) and start Segura in '13. I think the prospect-watcher scouting reports -- which, in my experience reading them, tend to rely on word-of-mouth/labels as much as actual analysis of gameplay/game tape -- are a vastly inferior method of analysis compared to actually watching the guy play day in & day out. How many games, combined, did these prospect watchers actually attend? How recent were the games? How long had Segura been manning SS? So Sickels thinks he could be an "outstanding" 2B defender, with a strong enough arm to man 3B, but apparently he just doesn't have the tools for SS? He's 'unrefined'... how many young, developing players could that be applied to -- nearly all of them? Since he just started playing SS last season, and showed signs of manning it well in MLB, I think it's much safer to make the assumption that this young player has improved at the position than that he's never going to be any better than he was in his first ~75-100 games there in MiLB.

 

I have zero interest in extrapolating a young player's E total from a tiny sample to a full season equivalent, and then using that as some kind of barometer of how good he is or can become. I think that's pretty clearly an inaccurate way to attempt to define a player's ability, regardless of the stat... and E total in general is an awful way to evaluate a defender - especially a young one in MiLB and then acclimating to MLB in his first 45 games.

 

I'm genuinely confused as to how anyone could have watched Segura defend at SS in MLB last season & not think he has the tools to be an asset there for the next six seasons. What are the weak parts you saw of his skillset, defensively? Hands? Reads off the bat? Because it certainly isn't his arm or athleticism right now. I don't think he's the second coming of The Wizard of Oz or anything, but I struggle to see where his big weaknesses were. He has the look to me of a player that's only going to get better in the field, with all the tools to capably handle SS. I mean, Aaron Rodgers 'wasn't athletic enough' to be a QB in the NFL... obviously that's an extreme example, but it underscores the unreliability of the kind of blanket-statement scouting reports that permeate the internet-baseball-world.

 

And just one more time, for good measure, hell yeah bring in Gonzalez as insurance/mentor/option 1-b.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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