Value of OBP, Relative to SLG

[rluzinski]

I am sure the Majors are littered with guys like that.

 

Roided up monsters that pitchers would rather walk than to have them deposit every ball into he seats? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[GoodGod262]

That sounds about right rluz.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif

[H0FFY]

My point was all OPS of .800 are not created equal:

 

.300 OBP .500 SLG:

 

Runs = 1444 x .300 + 893 x .500 - 444 = 436 runs

 

.400 OBP .400 SLG:

 

Runs = 1444 x .400 + 893 x .400 - 444 = 491 runs

 

If that is true, I am amazed. It give me so much new hope for Tony Gwynn. He surely projects as a .400/.400 guy. Is the .400/.400 guy like a .330/.500 guy, let me see...

 

1444x.330 + 893x.500 -444 = 479 runs

 

hmmmmm, Tony is worth a .330/.530 guy???

 

that yeilds 505 runs

 

Tony is therefore, like a .330/.515 guy

 

that yeilds the 491 runs

 

Really, that cannot be true???? Wow. Go TONY GWYNN JR.

[pogokat]

Richie sexson made a heckuva turn around...he walked 98 times in 2003! and is on pace for 85 or so this year..

 

edit: didn't realize someone else had already noticed this

[huntsvillefan]

a HR ISN'T twice as good as two doubles

 

I'd love to believe that, I like doubles a lot and I'm not a homerun sorta guy...........

But can anyone check up whether or not twice as many runs come in off homeruns as do of the same number of doubles?

 

EDIT, I just re-read the quote and now I'm really confused, doesn't a homerun only count the same as two doubles in SLG? - not twice as much?

[DuWayne Steurer]

EDIT, I just re-read the quote and now I'm really confused, doesn't a homerun only count the same as two doubles in SLG? - not twice as much?

 

If you want to get REALLY techinical, the truly hardcore runs created formula that assigns a specific run value to every statistical happening has a HR worth 1.41 runs, and a double worth .74 runs, the last time it was updated.

 

I'll look for it and see if I remember correctly.

[huntsvillefan]

HR worth 1.41 runs, and a double worth .74 runs,

 

That was all I meant really that I suspected that a homerun was worth as much as two doubles, which according to that it roughly is.

 

I'm not sure why it has to be worth twice as much as two doubles as per rluz quote?

[rluzinski]

I'm not sure why it has to be worth twice as much as two doubles as per rluz quote?

 

Well that's the same as saying a HR is worth a double, which makes no sense at all http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

What I was TRYING to say is two doubles is actually worth MORE than a single HR.

 

LINK

 

Also, a walk, according to linear weights, is worth about 2/3rds of a single, NOT 1/2 a single, as OPS values it, roughly.

[H0FFY]

Being a Brewer fan and wondering how much a home run is worth seems a lot like wondering what it would be like to roll over every morning and give a wake up cuddle to Angelina Jolie.

 

(Actually, you would not need to roll over, you would never be so distant).

[huntsvillefan]

What I was TRYING to say is two doubles is actually worth MORE than a single HR

 

Thats what I thought you were saying.

What I was trying to say is that I thought a homerun WAS worth two doubles and even by the stats you quote its pretty darn close.

From a Brewers angle the great thing about a homerun is that you score at least one run from it - no matter how bad your team mates are.

[endaround]

Hoffy don't look now but the Brewers are a big home run team. Tied for fourth at 128 with third belonging to the BOB assisted DBacks at 132.

[bjamesw22]

Also, a walk, according to linear weights, is worth about 2/3rds of a single, NOT 1/2 a single, as OPS values it, roughly.

 

And according to linear weights, what is a stolen base worth?

[rluzinski]

And according to linear weights, what is a stolen base worth?

 

Below is a spreedsheet I posted awhile back, trying to compare the different types of run predicting equations. Batting runs uses linear weights.

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/linsb.gif

 

Player B is Scotty Poish type player. The real Pods has decided to get caught stealing a bunch lately and has been in a hitting slump. Currently 54 stolen bases with 18 steals. Add that to a .684 OPS and he's been miserable for a corner outfielder.

 

But yeh, somehow the media has still been insisting that the trade was good for both teams. Sureeeee.

[bjamesw22]

Also, a walk, according to linear weights, is worth about 2/3rds of a single, NOT 1/2 a single, as OPS values it, roughly.

 

And according to linear weights, what is a stolen base worth?

[rluzinski]

Just wanted to link a "By The Numbers" newletter with an article on this subject. It puts the value of an OBP point relative to SLG at 1.2.

 

It's the last article in the newsletter and the newsletter is in PDF form:

 

Is OBP Really Worth Three Times as Much as SLG?

[RobertR]

I've generally seen a ratio of 1.2 to 1.3 like the article concludes.

 

One problem with the article though, Depodestra never claimed that OBP is 3 times as valuable as SLG. Depodestra claimed that the marginal value of OBP is worth 3 times as much as the marginal value of SLG. Basically Depodestra was saying that if you have a baseline level player of .330 OBP and .400 SLG that a .340 OBP/.400 SLG player would be worth as much as a .330 OBP/.430 SLG player.

 

Now, I'd like to see that hypothesis tested myself. But the article in question doesn't do it. I believe that it's likely true since OBP and SLG tend to be on different scales, there are more .500 sluggers than .400 OBP players, but that article was testing something else.

 

And that's partly Michael Lewis's fault for not explaining it properly.

 

Robert

[RedbirdRay]

Has anyone seen Mark Pankin's work?

 

I guess he presented it at SABR 36. Basically, he's placing the value of OBP at around 1.8 Slg.