Game 10: Panthers @ Packers - Sunday, November 10th, 3:25PM

[PinaMadness]

Riverboat Ron strikes again.

[yourout]

I...do not get that call.

 

Unless the kicker is hurt it's shear stupidity.

[adambr2]

I...do not get that call.

 

Simple. On the road, TD wins it instead of ties it. Unconventional, but not without logic. Analytically not much difference between going for 1 or 2 anyway with a likely slight advantage to going for 2.

 

It looks stupid now but would look genius if it had worked and they end up winning 25-24. One of those calls that is totally dependent on whether it works or not. I'd tend to trust my offense picking up two yards against our D too.

[MrTPlush]

I...do not get that call.

 

Yah that made zero sense...at all. The upside to that was pretty much non existent unless we ended scoring zero more points and they then scored a TD to win (or similar scenario where they then win by 1 point). Past that they aren’t many realistic scenarios where that did anything positive.

[pacopete4]

How does analytics tell you that you should go for that?

[MrTPlush]

How does analytics tell you that you should go for that?

 

Pretty sure analytics say going for 2 points nets you more in the long run. If you like taking analytics like gospel of course.

 

If the odds of making a 2 point conversion is anything over 50% it technically is better.

[nodakfan17]

I...do not get that call.

 

Yah that made zero sense...at all. The upside to that was pretty much non existent unless we ended scoring zero more points and they then scored a TD to win. Past that they aren’t many realistic scenarios where that did anything positive.

If I were a Panther fan, I wouldn’t hate the call. You’re on the road and 2-point conversions are a 50/50 proposition. But why not give it to CMC?

[HarveysWBs]

I...do not get that call.

 

Simple. On the road, TD wins it instead of ties it. Unconventional, but not without logic. Analytically not much difference between going for 1 or 2 anyway with a likely slight advantage to going for 2.

 

Yeah, the players are not doing much to demonstrate the wisdom of going for it in situations like that, but I’ve liked the calls from both MLF (can we just call him “Frenchie”) and Rivera. I think the numbers bear it out and will over time be the better strategy.

[nodakfan17]

How does analytics tell you that you should go for that?

2-point conversions are ~51% successful.

[lcbj68c]

If Jones was the RB on that last drive, I think it ends in a TD. Williams is fine for spells, but not the entire drive, IMHO.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm not buying the analytics here and not seeing what difference being on the road makes. Especially when a coin toss decides the ball in OT and it isn't sudden death by FG anymore.

 

This is overcomplicating a very simple thing. TD, stop, TD, go to overtime. Now you have to convert a 2 just to avoid a loss. Add in that there are 11 minutes left and it seems even dumber.

[PinaMadness]

Thought process on 2-point conversion down 8. The conversion rate is 47.5%, basically 50/50 proposition. Odds are you'll get it either this time or next. If you get it on the front end you may be able to kick the XP for the win at the end. Of course it looks worse when you fail.

[MrTPlush]

I...do not get that call.

 

Yah that made zero sense...at all. The upside to that was pretty much non existent unless we ended scoring zero more points and they then scored a TD to win. Past that they aren’t many realistic scenarios where that did anything positive.

If I were a Panther fan, I wouldn’t hate the call. You’re on the road and 2-point conversions are a 50/50 proposition. But why not give it to CMC?

 

Well they didn’t give it to CMC....so.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I can buy the idea that going for 2 is more worth it than not and teams aren't doing it enough, but when you get situational with it there are still times kicking the EP makes sense and that was one IMO.

[lcbj68c]

Can we find a new acronym for coach? Every time I see it I think someone is talking about a MILF.

 

Yaaaaaaaah....same.

 

I didnt think we were allowed to acronym cuss words.

[pacopete4]

How does analytics tell you that you should go for that?

2-point conversions are ~51% successful.

 

Then go for it every time. Not pick and choose.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Thought process on 2-point conversion down 8. The conversion rate is 47.5%, basically 50/50 proposition. Odds are you'll get it either this time or next. If you get it on the front end you may be able to kick the XP for the win at the end. Of course it looks worse when you fail.

 

This alone doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. What is the conversion rate on an EP? Making 2 of them seems much better than a 50/50.

 

I hate the Joe Morgans of the world as much as anybody but this REALLY feels like one the scientists got wrong.

[yourout]

Going to have to score again to win.

[lcbj68c]

Going to have to score again to win.

 

I disagree.

[Zad Fnark]

One TD will put this away.

[adambr2]

How does analytics tell you that you should go for that?

2-point conversions are ~51% successful.

 

Then go for it every time. Not pick and choose.

 

You can't play it like that either though, context and situation matter. Obviously if you are down by 6 and score a TD as time expires you're not going for 2; likewise if you pull within 5 with 2 minutes left in the game you're not going to kick the PAT.

[young guns]

Miami is on fire! Lol. They cant even tank correctly.

[HarveysWBs]

One TD will put this away.

FG too, essentially

[pacopete4]

Giving away points is just stupid. That’s my opinion on it.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Context and situation do indeed matter and in that situation I'm not seeing how that was the right call. The fact they are 51% successful and you might get one can't be the rationale. If it is then just kick the PATs at like a 95% success rate