J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report

[monty57]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/report-yankees-actively-trying-to-trade-j-a-happ.html

 

MLBTraderumors says the Brewers are "among the NL teams with some level of interest." He is owed $17M for this season, and the article notes that the Yankees would be "selling low" in an effort to shed salary as they try to land Cole.

 

Might be a guy we could get for "nothing" simply by taking on some of his salary. Had a down year last year, but prior to that had four straight seasons with a mid-3's ERA and WAR around 3.

 

What's everyone think?

[adambr2]

I'm going to copy my post from another thread since it directly relates to this and explains why I'd be in favor of taking on Happ and his salary if the prospect benefit is sufficient:

 

1) Worrying about the future is always necessary. You can't solely focus on the 3 year Yelich window.

 

2) Just because you trade for guys that aren't going to play in that 3 year window, doesn't mean they can't help you in that 3 year window. Whose to say DS doesn't have a bigger plan to turn around and use the new prospects from the Yankees as buying ammo either at the deadline or this time next year? We don't have much for trade chips right now. Someone like Dominguez could see a substantial spike in value in the near future and be worth a haul before we know it.

 

3). Happ isn't far removed from being a really really good starter and still has great K numbers. At worst you plug a hole in the back of your rotation and at best you could have a really good rebound candidate.

 

I think if it's short term, the prospect(s) are right, and you don't want to get heavily involved in an overpriced FA market, it's potentially a creatively useful way to use some of the extra money available.

[wntrtxn21]

I'm going to copy my post from another thread since it directly relates to this and explains why I'd be in favor of taking on Happ and his salary if the prospect benefit is sufficient:

 

1) Worrying about the future is always necessary. You can't solely focus on the 3 year Yelich window.

 

2) Just because you trade for guys that aren't going to play in that 3 year window, doesn't mean they can't help you in that 3 year window. Whose to say DS doesn't have a bigger plan to turn around and use the new prospects from the Yankees as buying ammo either at the deadline or this time next year? We don't have much for trade chips right now. Someone like Dominguez could see a substantial spike in value in the near future and be worth a haul before we know it.

 

3). Happ isn't far removed from being a really really good starter and still has great K numbers. At worst you plug a hole in the back of your rotation and at best you could have a really good rebound candidate.

 

I think if it's short term, the prospect(s) are right, and you don't want to get heavily involved in an overpriced FA market, it's potentially a creatively useful way to use some of the extra money available.

 

Happ is going to be 38. How many pitchers rebound at 38. Lower budget teams like the Brewers can't afford to take on big contracts if they are trying to win now. I would rather put the $17M towards a good OF - 1B- 3B and forget a prospect who may or may not pan out in 3 years.

[pacopete4]

I’d rather take my chances on Burnes.

[MrTPlush]

Think I will just let some guy within the organization pitch and use $17mil for something useful. That is a ton of cash. Obviously really hard to give an opinion on this idea without knowing what they would give along with him.

[adambr2]

I think some are missing the main point of making a deal like this. You aren't doing the deal because you're excited about paying JA Happ 17M, you're doing the deal because the Yankees make it worth your while to do so in what else they can include. The hope on the Happ rebound is just a bonus if it happens. If it doesn't, nothing says you're locked into a rotation spot with him and can't move him into the deep area of your pen as a long man if things don't work out for him starting and you have better options.

 

Obviously, you only do this if the other inclusions make it worthwhile. The possibility does exist that the option could vest and that needs to be factored into negotiations with the Yankees.

[MrTPlush]

I think some are missing the main point of making a deal like this. You aren't doing the deal because you're excited about paying JA Happ 17M, you're doing the deal because the Yankees make it worth your while to do so in what else they can include. The hope on the Happ rebound is just a bonus if it happens. If it doesn't, nothing says you're locked into a rotation spot with him and can't move him into the deep area of your pen as a long man if things don't work out for him starting and you have better options.

 

Obviously, you only do this if the other inclusions make it worthwhile. The possibility does exist that the option could vest and that needs to be factored into negotiations with the Yankees.

 

Nah, I get the point. I am just really not much of a fan of such a move when we are in the midst of competing. Unless we are getting a future All Star type player I am just not really a fan. I don't care to grab solid, but not great prospects when it is a huge negative on the current team. The odds those players are worth it someday so much so it was worth wasting a ton of money while competing is unlikely.

 

Of course if we don't waste $17mil or double that on Happ, what are we doing with it? Is it going to be put to use on the team or not. That obviously makes a difference. There are so many moving parts to an idea like this it is hard to judge without a real proposal. Maybe they are taking on the salary and then flipping the prospects...I mean who knows.

[adambr2]

I think some are missing the main point of making a deal like this. You aren't doing the deal because you're excited about paying JA Happ 17M, you're doing the deal because the Yankees make it worth your while to do so in what else they can include. The hope on the Happ rebound is just a bonus if it happens. If it doesn't, nothing says you're locked into a rotation spot with him and can't move him into the deep area of your pen as a long man if things don't work out for him starting and you have better options.

 

Obviously, you only do this if the other inclusions make it worthwhile. The possibility does exist that the option could vest and that needs to be factored into negotiations with the Yankees.

 

Nah, I get the point. I am just really not much of a fan of such a move when we are in the midst of competing. Unless we are getting a future All Star type player I am just not really a fan. I don't care to grab solid, but not great prospects when it is a huge negative on the current team. The odds those players are worth it someday so much so it was worth wasting a ton of money while competing is unlikely.

 

Of course if we don't waste $17mil or double that on Happ, what are we doing with it? Is it going to be put to use on the team or not. That obviously makes a difference. There are so many moving parts to an idea like this it is hard to judge without a real proposal. Maybe they are taking on the salary and then flipping the prospects...I mean who knows.

 

That's kind of what I was curious about as to if that is their potential angle. If you could get assets that would potentially be used as bait in July when you're looking to fill the gaps in for a pennant race.

 

Right now our trade chips to use for any major midseason deals are pretty nonexistent. Maybe Turang but you'd like to keep some of these guys too.

[ewitkows]

If they want include a top 10 pick ie Seigler or Schmidt in order to take on the 17 mil , I'd be open to that

[Jopal78]

The Yankees would probably give Happ away if Milwaukee picked up the freight in terms of salary. however I don’t see the Brewers taking on a $17 million player.

 

The only realistic scenario would be the Yankees kick in cash which also means more likely than not they would want talent in return dependent on the amount of cash they are kicking in which means Milwaukee and New York aren’t a good match

[adambr2]

The Yankees would probably give Happ away if Milwaukee picked up the freight in terms of salary. however I don’t see the Brewers taking on a $17 million player.

 

The only realistic scenario would be the Yankees kick in cash which also means more likely than not they would want talent in return dependent on the amount of cash they are kicking in which means Milwaukee and New York aren’t a good match

 

The Yankees shouldn't expect anything substantial at all for Happ regardless of whether they kick in salary or not.

 

And no team is taking Happ and his full contract off the Yankee's hands for free. His potential vesting option only complicates things further.

[KeithStone53151]

The Yankees would probably give Happ away if Milwaukee picked up the freight in terms of salary. however I don’t see the Brewers taking on a $17 million player.

 

The only realistic scenario would be the Yankees kick in cash which also means more likely than not they would want talent in return dependent on the amount of cash they are kicking in which means Milwaukee and New York aren’t a good match

 

The Yankees shouldn't expect anything substantial at all for Happ regardless of whether they kick in salary or not.

 

And no team is taking Happ and his full contract off the Yankee's hands for free. His potential vesting option only complicates things further.

 

I tend to agree here. The one thing the Yankees have going for them is the SP market. So many teams in need. Happ is probably worth between 1/3 and 1/2 of his salary for 2020, and 2021 obviously depends how he does in 2020. My guess for the Brewers, they'd take on maybe 3/5 of his salary and send someone like Joe Gray over for an organizational prospect in the 6-8 range. That's probably what a trade for Happ looks like. I think it's wildly unlikely though...I doubt Stearns is interested in the risk that vesting option poses.

[mrn1ceguy]

I mentioned it in the Winter Meetings thread, but what if the yankees were to include one of their 2 young 3B (Gio Urshela or more likely Miguel Andújar)? Both raked in their respective one year in the bigs (2018 for Andujar, 2019 for Urshela). One is blocking the other unless the Yankees move Andujar to DH. So this is a trade from depth to unload salary (for the yankees) and a trade to fill two holes for the Brewers.

[Devinep]

I think some are missing the main point of making a deal like this. You aren't doing the deal because you're excited about paying JA Happ 17M, you're doing the deal because the Yankees make it worth your while to do so in what else they can include. The hope on the Happ rebound is just a bonus if it happens. If it doesn't, nothing says you're locked into a rotation spot with him and can't move him into the deep area of your pen as a long man if things don't work out for him starting and you have better options.

 

Obviously, you only do this if the other inclusions make it worthwhile. The possibility does exist that the option could vest and that needs to be factored into negotiations with the Yankees.

 

Nah, I get the point. I am just really not much of a fan of such a move when we are in the midst of competing. Unless we are getting a future All Star type player I am just not really a fan. I don't care to grab solid, but not great prospects when it is a huge negative on the current team. The odds those players are worth it someday so much so it was worth wasting a ton of money while competing is unlikely.

 

Of course if we don't waste $17mil or double that on Happ, what are we doing with it? Is it going to be put to use on the team or not. That obviously makes a difference. There are so many moving parts to an idea like this it is hard to judge without a real proposal. Maybe they are taking on the salary and then flipping the prospects...I mean who knows.

 

It doesn’t have to be prospects though. Andujar, Ford, tauchman, or Frazier would all be helpful the the brewers this year. I agree they don’t need to “buy” prospects at this point

[Matt Breen]

I would be fine taking Happ along with a prospect or two.

 

If fills a rotation slot. If Happ does good - we have him for 2021. If not, you get rid of him before the vesting option kicks in.

 

Otherwise, get a guy or two. OF Clint Frazier (doesn't seem to fit in NY, although some defensive questions), RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (was ranked around #65 in pre-2019 Top Prospect rankings), LHP Jordan Montgomery (had a really nice debut in 2017, but missed most of the last two years with TJ surgery) are all bats that could help now - and in the next few years. I'm sure others know the Yankee system to make other suggestions.

[Eye Black]

I would be fine taking Happ along with a prospect or two.

 

If fills a rotation slot. If Happ does good - we have him for 2021. If not, you get rid of him before the vesting option kicks in.

 

Otherwise, get a guy or two. OF Clint Frazier (doesn't seem to fit in NY, although some defensive questions), RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (was ranked around #65 in pre-2019 Top Prospect rankings), LHP Jordan Montgomery (had a really nice debut in 2017, but missed most of the last two years with TJ surgery) are all bats that could help now - and in the next few years. I'm sure others know the Yankee system to make other suggestions.

I am one of those people that is still a believer in the talent that Clint Frazier has, but the seriousness of his lingering concussion symptoms is pretty scary stuff. I hope he goes on to have a good baseball career, but it’s sort of worrisome that another head injury could prove career ending for him.

[Matt Breen]

I would be fine taking Happ along with a prospect or two.

 

If fills a rotation slot. If Happ does good - we have him for 2021. If not, you get rid of him before the vesting option kicks in.

 

Otherwise, get a guy or two. OF Clint Frazier (doesn't seem to fit in NY, although some defensive questions), RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (was ranked around #65 in pre-2019 Top Prospect rankings), LHP Jordan Montgomery (had a really nice debut in 2017, but missed most of the last two years with TJ surgery) are all bats that could help now - and in the next few years. I'm sure others know the Yankee system to make other suggestions.

I am one of those people that is still a believer in the talent that Clint Frazier has, but the seriousness of his lingering concussion symptoms is pretty scary stuff. I hope he goes on to have a good baseball career, but it’s sort of worrisome that another head injury could prove career ending for him.

Frazier's a guy who could really use a change of scenery. Just let him get someplace out of the limelight and away from his past issues.

[walleye]

Why why why ? Over the hill very backend of the rotation . Getting sick of just wait crap .wait and take the sloppy seconds no thanks.

[SRB]

I was initially on board with this because I don't think Happ was actually that bad last year once you factor in Yankee Stadium. A 107 ERA- and 112 FIP- are bad but not disastrous, and the premise is that we would be paying $17 million for both a back-end starter and a major league piece (probably at 1B or 3B).

 

But on further reflection I don't see how you can do a deal when it basically requires you to manipulate Happ's playing time to avoid his vesting option. What if he is lights out for us, we nonetheless manipulate his playing time, he files a grievance and wins? No prospect that the Yankees would offer us is worth a potential $34 million commitment.

[adambr2]

I was initially on board with this because I don't think Happ was actually that bad last year once you factor in Yankee Stadium. A 107 ERA- and 112 FIP- are bad but not disastrous, and the premise is that we would be paying $17 million for both a back-end starter and a major league piece (probably at 1B or 3B).

 

But on further reflection I don't see how you can do a deal when it basically requires you to manipulate Happ's playing time to avoid his vesting option. What if he is lights out for us, we nonetheless manipulate his playing time, he files a grievance and wins? No prospect that the Yankees would offer us is worth a potential $34 million commitment.

 

I think you could probably get around this pretty easily, just negotiate in the trade that the Yankees will pay X dollars, say half of the 2021 salary if it vests which would leave us on the hook for $8.5M. Which we'd want to do anyway if he was lights out, we wouldn't want to manipulate his time to get out of it.

[SRB]

I was initially on board with this because I don't think Happ was actually that bad last year once you factor in Yankee Stadium. A 107 ERA- and 112 FIP- are bad but not disastrous, and the premise is that we would be paying $17 million for both a back-end starter and a major league piece (probably at 1B or 3B).

 

But on further reflection I don't see how you can do a deal when it basically requires you to manipulate Happ's playing time to avoid his vesting option. What if he is lights out for us, we nonetheless manipulate his playing time, he files a grievance and wins? No prospect that the Yankees would offer us is worth a potential $34 million commitment.

 

I think you could probably get around this pretty easily, just negotiate in the trade that the Yankees will pay X dollars, say half of the 2021 salary if it vests which would leave us on the hook for $8.5M. Which we'd want to do anyway if he was lights out, we wouldn't want to manipulate his time to get out of it.

 

That would work, but if the entire point for the Yankees is to get rid of his salary that might substantially impact the other player we get in return.

[Eye Black]

I am one of those people that is still a believer in the talent that Clint Frazier has, but the seriousness of his lingering concussion symptoms is pretty scary stuff. I hope he goes on to have a good baseball career, but it’s sort of worrisome that another head injury could prove career ending for him.

Frazier's a guy who could really use a change of scenery. Just let him get someplace out of the limelight and away from his past issues.

No doubt about it, his ceiling is extremely high and his situation seems to have plateaued in New York. I could definitely see him becoming an All Star caliber OF hitter with a new opportunity. His bat speed has always been tantalizing, so it’s not hard to picture him putting it all together somewhere else.

[A Swing and A Drive]

The Angels/Giants just swung a trade similar to this with the Giants taking on 1 year and all $12M left in Zack Cozart's final year and were given SS Prospect Will Wilson.

 

It would be great if the Brewers could swing a Happ/Andujar type deal like this.

[Devinep]

I was initially on board with this because I don't think Happ was actually that bad last year once you factor in Yankee Stadium. A 107 ERA- and 112 FIP- are bad but not disastrous, and the premise is that we would be paying $17 million for both a back-end starter and a major league piece (probably at 1B or 3B).

 

But on further reflection I don't see how you can do a deal when it basically requires you to manipulate Happ's playing time to avoid his vesting option. What if he is lights out for us, we nonetheless manipulate his playing time, he files a grievance and wins? No prospect that the Yankees would offer us is worth a potential $34 million commitment.

 

If he is lights out, why would it be bad to have him another season? It’s not like there are top arms coming up in the farm system

[tigerbrew]

If the Brewers are willing to pay a 37 yr old Happ $17M a year, wouldn't Jordan Lyles at 2 years $16M be a much better deal. I would've much prefer to get Lyles instead.