Cryptocurrency

[GAME05]

I picked a 180k peak at the start and haven't moved from that, so it's great to see where on the same page. Especially since I remember your posts from last cycle and so have a lot of respect for your opinion.

I was buying from last October and have put money in monthly, and it bugs me that we've seen 2-5- even 20x from a lot of these projects so far yet I haven't seen near that yet. Ultimately I think my mistake was going with too-small projects to start and not just riding the established large-cap projects for a while. I should have played the BTC-->Large MC-->Small MC money flow better than I did. It also bugs me that I put a market order in for a Grayscale product and immediately lost $1000. Guess I won't do that again! (I doubled up on my Grayscale Chainlink Trust holding.)

I have Karrat for gaming but am otherwise riding mid-cap AI projects like Neural and 0x0 and HashAI. Axie hit $8b last cycle and that's probably a good aim for Karrat. Though I'll be dumping it before their big April 18th VC unlock. $1-10b I think is a good target for the mid-cap AI projects, roughly a 10x from here.

Seems to be a little more optimism that Trump is indeed going to add BTC to the federal reserve, granted what any politician *says* isn't worth much. But hopefully so and then China and Saudi Arabia follow. China allowing BTC buys on the mainland is always possible and would certainly crush that $180 prediction.

[Joseph Zarr]

19 hours ago, GAME05 said:

I picked a 180k peak at the start and haven't moved from that, so it's great to see where on the same page. Especially since I remember your posts from last cycle and so have a lot of respect for your opinion.

I was buying from last October and have put money in monthly, and it bugs me that we've seen 2-5- even 20x from a lot of these projects so far yet I haven't seen near that yet. Ultimately I think my mistake was going with too-small projects to start and not just riding the established large-cap projects for a while. I should have played the BTC-->Large MC-->Small MC money flow better than I did. It also bugs me that I put a market order in for a Grayscale product and immediately lost $1000. Guess I won't do that again! (I doubled up on my Grayscale Chainlink Trust holding.)

I have Karrat for gaming but am otherwise riding mid-cap AI projects like Neural and 0x0 and HashAI. Axie hit $8b last cycle and that's probably a good aim for Karrat. Though I'll be dumping it before their big April 18th VC unlock. $1-10b I think is a good target for the mid-cap AI projects, roughly a 10x from here.

Seems to be a little more optimism that Trump is indeed going to add BTC to the federal reserve, granted what any politician *says* isn't worth much. But hopefully so and then China and Saudi Arabia follow. China allowing BTC buys on the mainland is always possible and would certainly crush that $180 prediction.

The BTC evolution and developments have, honestly, ventured beyond my wildest dreams. When I was mining in 2016/2017 - before I shifted full-time to trading (and, then, ultimately to hodling/accumulation/and LT swing trading) - I couldn't even fathom or realistically accept what is now unfolding before our eyes. It's a testament to my limited thinking, on one hand, but also I am inherently conservative in the markets. I have family members who were burned in the Dot.com bubble because they were greedy. BUT, it's hard to turn a blind eye to what we're seeing and as I've grown in this crypto market as a whole my thinking has changed. And, well, in my charts when I pull out to the macro larger timeframes I can't deny what I'm seeing. I try to disprove it. I really do. BUT, before this cycle even kicked off and turned bullish - I'm talking late 2023 and beginning of 2024 charting - I could find ways to see certain price action giving me $350K this cycle. That never materialized but it got me going through various market scenarios. Ultimately, $1 Million was (and is) on the table as a logical first Mid-Term target. Say 10 years or so out. Which, well, got me thinking and extrapolating. I was already pontificating one could make a reasonable argument that beyond Microstrategy like purchases, the US Fed was shadow buying lots of BTC to leverage against the US Treasury. I'm not going to get into specifics but I can tell you I'm not the only one who thinks this or was charting this. I digress. So, I had been asking the question: What is a reasonable growth estimate - annually and in 5-10 year cycles - if Bitcoin actually became a global reserve? AND, well, here we are that is being openly discussed across the Sqwuak Box almost daily. Then, well, yesterday I saw this:

 

The long and the short? Other than a very small but keen sense of validation, I reminded myself: Just keep buying every dip. Doesn't matter the amount of money you or I have. Responsibly cost-average in and it will all come out in the wash. I just no longer think this is an outlandish proposition whatsoever. 4-5 years ago? I would have looked at you like you shot my dog.

Lastly, man, my mom is retiring this upcoming summer. I hand fed her the golden opportunity for the rest of her lifetime. I sent her weekly texts when BTC went sub-$20K. Just not in her risk profile or, honestly, her realm of comprehension. Is what it is. I still have the hardest time grappling with that failure to execute as her son.😅

[GAME05]

Aped into some hype and caught the top end of a major major wick. Ended up paying 4:1 for it and lost a lot. Just dumb dumb dumb on my part and I should have known better. Really upset with myself, but it is what it is, I guess. High chance of some influencer mentions soon, but that's obviously not what I wanted to be banking on.

In other news, AI Agents are the new memes and I wouldn't touch a single one. A million of them out there with no real way to assess expected value. Plus hold a second past the top and those things are gonna crash 90% overnight easy.

 

[GAME05]

$400 to $8.20 to $1300. Crypto is stupid.

[GAME05]

This has been such a difficult cycle. I was smart enough to get my money in quite early, but I made a big mistake being too degenerate and not sticking to the major alts, which are still way up from when I first got my money in.

Otherwise I've just been holding for a long time now. For the most part haven't been jumping to whatever hot new thing. The value of the alts I have are down enough I don't view them as substantially different from anything smaller, and the hot new things the influencers keep pushing only feels like them trying to keep their attention and activity up.

[PlayerHader]

I am just happy I bought FBTC with my excess HSA dollars when the funds opened. Seeing that money more then double has been fun.

[PlayerHader]

New record for BTC. "Gambled" and put my reserve HSA funds into the Fidelity ETF when they came out. It wasn't a ton of money, but 3x at this point.

[GAME05]

Bitcoin price still following Global M2 supply. We never really left the four-year cycle, although it's been rougher than usual on alts, probably and understandably because the ETFs are safer but don't allow rolling interest down the line. M2 expected to peak around late September. Four-year cycle trend has BTC peaking around late September, too. There's also an FOMC meeting right around then where a hoped-for rate cut would rocket high-risk assets like crypto (fingers crossed). Typically alts do their last little agonal breath right after BTC peaks, and then I tend to notice one last memecoin hype-cycle just to keep people holding on way too long.

Still think there's a lot of 20-40x gains out there to be had, at least going by current vs. expected FDV. I'm knee-deep in AI, particularly Neural and Spectre. Maybe better RWA plays out there than I own. Feels like gaming is more about incubators like SuperVerse and such than actual games and I'm just not excited about it this time around.

But at least there's some optimism back in the market again. It was really rough for a long time. A year and a half since the halving has all been garbage.

[PlayerHader]

Sup…

[GAME05]

Hoping for a little rally with this QE (probably) starting soon, but am probably out shortly after that and will just have to eat my losses. This whole cycle has been just awful. 

[PlayerHader]

Eek?

Hodl?

What's up?