Game Thread (8/07/2022): Reds (Ashcraft) at Brewers (Burnes) - 1:10 PM CDT

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, Samurai Bucky said:

We went to the game yesterday, too, so I apologize if much of this was covered in this thread.  It is clear that the offense is the main problem.  Before Hiura's home run, I think the Brewers had 4 hits... maybe 5.  Yelich had a bad game, but he has been hitting well lately.  Everybody can have a bad game.  However, the rest of the team can't take the day off.

Fast forward to Hiura's homer -- the next batter, Urias, walks.  Now, we have the #8 batter, Caratini, up.  Bunt.  Period.  Yes, the third baseman was up on the grass, but sacrifice the batter and move Urias to third.  Taylor hits a fly ball to center which may or may not got the runner to third.  Then that clears the bottom of the lineup to get one of your hottest hitters, Yelich, up with two outs.  Instead, Caratini hits a taylor-made, can of corn double play ball.

One of the arguments will probably be, "Caratini can't bunt."  Why not?  They probably don't work on it, right?  An exit velocity of 45MPH off the bat sucks, right?  Sorry, that is not an excuse.

Another argument may be, "Yeah, but what if Caratini gets a base hit."  Yeah... "what if."  If the bunt is worked on and if players bunt well, then the odds of moving the runner over would be better than "if Caratini gets a base hit."

Maybe my frustration is that I don't think Counsel even considers bunting.  Is it something that should be used every time?  No.  But the atmosphere at the game was:  1.  We weren't hitting water if we fell out of a boat, and, 2. the pressure was on the Reds and the momentum was with the Brewers!  Put pressure on the defense.

Yes... the last week or so is a small sample size, but the 3PO philosophy is so frustrating.

Good post, I agree with much of it. But actually Johnathan Davis pinch ran for Urias & was on first. There's a lot you can do there, the most obvious of which is giving Davis a chance to run. Unless you were going to do one of the rarest of things in Brewer baseball--put on a hit-and-run--there's no way you swing at the first pitch there. Caratini most likely CAN'T bunt, sadly. But he can pull the ball, which gets a runner to third, IF said runner is on second, which is why you give Davis a chance to run. Just poor baseball from the neck-up.

I too get frustrated by the "He can't bunt, it's not as easy as it looks" line. It isn't easy to center on a mid-to-upper nineties fastball either. But the work is put in to do that. It isn't "easy" to hit a lot of home runs, but at the beginning of the launch-angle craze, I'll imagine a lot of guys invested many days to overhaul their swings. It might not do you any good in trying to win a particular game in a certain situation, but it might pay off come arbitration or FA time, which sadly might be the priority.

[NBBrewFan]

1 hour ago, Samurai Bucky said:

One of the arguments will probably be, "Caratini can't bunt."  Why not?  They probably don't work on it, right?  An exit velocity of 45MPH off the bat sucks, right?  Sorry, that is not an excuse.

The really mind-numbing part of sabermetrics is that somehow bunting is NEVER ok.  EVER,  NO MATTER WHAT!  If someone went up to CC in the dugout, pointed a gun at his head and said "bunt or else", CC would give the swing for the heavens sign and they would be cleaning his brains off the dugout wall.  I can't fathom that situational bunting doesn't have a role especially in an offense/pitching combination as the Brewers where they are relying on a pitching staff to keep the score low and an offense to just scrape up enough HR (err runs) to win.  Well if those HR aren't coming how about some situational hitting. Especially in extra innings.

I think the problem is they look at run expectancy tables to make their decisions, but the problem with that is most (if not all) rely on every PA with a specific outcome using data for every hitter and every pitcher.  The run expectancy for scoring from 2B with 0 outs is almost the same as 3B with 1 out so they don't bat the runner over in extra innings.  But it doesn't take into account the current hitter or the current pitcher.  If the hitter has an OPS of 0.56 and is a great bunter, I bet it's a better outcome to bunt and then see what the next hitter looks like with a runner on 3rd and 1 out.  HOW the data is collected is important!  Just because every hitter/pitcher in MLB for years worth of data indicates that X has the same probability as Y doesn't mean that in some circumstances you need to think about it and not blindly follow the aggregate data?

[Samurai Bucky]

27 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

But actually Johnathan Davis pinch ran for Urias & was on first. There's a lot you can do there, the most obvious of which is giving Davis a chance to run.

Thanks for reminding me of that.  I recall commenting, "There is a Jonathan Davis sighting..." ?

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, NBBrewFan said:

 especially in an offense/pitching combination as the Brewers where they are relying on a pitching staff to keep the score low and an offense to just scrape up enough HR (err runs) to win. 

That's the thing. If they're hell-bent on the "run prevention" mantra--which I'm totally on board with--then a run here, a run there should make all the difference. That doesn't even speak to yesterday though, when one run WINS YOU THE GAME. Just a horrible sequence that I'm guessing no one even asked about post-game.

[Hopper]

Post game pressers are an absolute joke.  No one ever asks the tough questions, and if someone hints at a tough question, it is answered with 100% vagueness and politician type answers.

[Robocaller]

12 hours ago, Hopper said:

Those are great things to fix, but we are still left with an anemic offense, that if we do make the playoffs, will only see top ranked pitching.

*sigh*

Our only chance in the playoffs has ever been getting dominant starting pitching and having games closed out by the pen. That hasn't changed, and they still give us a chance.

[BruisedCrew]

6 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Our only chance in the playoffs has ever been getting dominant starting pitching and having games closed out by the pen. That hasn't changed, and they still give us a chance.

But that’s why, unless you really believe that Rogers is as good as, or close to as good as, Hader, the Hader trade only reduced the Brewers chances of making and advancing in the playoffs. 

[Robocaller]

10 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

But that’s why, unless you really believe that Rogers is as good as, or close to as good as, Hader, the Hader trade only reduced the Brewers chances of making and advancing in the playoffs. 

While Hader>Rogers, Bush>> the AAAA guys they've been cycling though the roster. If Rogers and Bush were performing to expectations, it would be an improvement.

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

While Hader>Rogers, Bush>> the AAAA guys they've been cycling though the roster. If Rogers and Bush were performing to expectations, it would be an improvement.

But my preference would have been to pick up Bush to bolster the middle relief and not make the Hader trade. The minimal improvement made to their bullpen is less than the improvements made by the Cardinals, Phillies, and Padres, the primary competition for the last playoff spots.