Game Thread (9/16/2022): Yankees (Montas) at Brewers (Houser) - 7:10 PM CDT

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, willie key said:

Burnes has been one of our worst starting pitchers since the all star break.       He’s contributed to the collapse   

 

im just saying everybody blaming the offense like the pitching has been great is short sighted.    There is enough blame to go around

But you started off by talking about the pitchers being disappointing on the whole season, when Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in the league again this year. He had a few rough starts in the last month or so, but you're going to get stretches like that with literally every other elite pitcher in the game. 

Again, I'll repeat that the reason why our pitching hasn't produced like they did last year is because of the injuries to the big guys and the fact that we've had to give innings to Gonzalez, Alexander, etc. in their place. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

14 minutes ago, willie key said:

Woodruff has been a bright spot since his return from circulation thing.   Devin has been pretty consistent.   The rest has been uneven to poor.   They just have.    Burnes hasn’t been close to an ace the second half       They have underperformed and get way too much of a pass    
 

I’m not saying they are poor or horrible but they  have contributed a lot more to the garbage we see on the field than people make it out to be      I mean we are really that unlucky that Ashby got hurt that’s why we are bad    Heck it’s probably helped us

 

 

I would say "uneven" has been Lauers' floor. He's filled his role pretty well for the most part.

[KeithStone53151]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

But you started off by talking about the pitchers being disappointing on the whole season, when Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in the league again this year. He had a few rough starts in the last month or so, but you're going to get stretches like that with literally every other elite pitcher in the game. 

Again, I'll repeat that the reason why our pitching hasn't produced like they did last year is because of the injuries to the big guys and the fact that we've had to give innings to Gonzalez, Alexander, etc. in their place. 

The likely cy young alcantara has something like a 7 era over the last 30 days. I know this because he's currently tanking my fantasy team. Helping drive home your point. It's not just us, all good pitchers go through rough stretches. You don't just get 7 clean innings every start otherwise burnes would have a 0 era and 25 wins.

[nate82]

22 minutes ago, bulldogboy0733 said:

It would be nice if Rodgers could be reliable but I'm guessing it's not in the cards.

He is usually really reliable but once the month turns to January not so much.

[Jim French Stepstool]

This was a fun one. For anyone else out there who's 109 years old like I am?, this reminded me of a lot of the Brewer-Yankee games in the late 70s-early 80s when we finally started winning & developed a rivalry with them. Lots of emotion. Crowd into the game. The Milwaukee shortstop drives in 4 runs. Aaron Boone even tried to fill the Billy Martin role by getting tossed. Now we need Woodruff to be Mike Caldwell tomorrow.

Mitchell has gotten off to a slow start, and there's a lot more swing & miss in his game than there will be down the road, but despite that they've already been able to clip a couple coupons off him--the big HR his 1st weekend & now tonite. Very impressed with some of his ABs this evening.

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

The likely cy young alcantara has something like a 7 era over the last 30 days. I know this because he's currently tanking my fantasy team. Helping drive home your point. It's not just us, all good pitchers go through rough stretches. You don't just get 7 clean innings every start otherwise burnes would have a 0 era and 25 wins.

He's the same guy that thinks that Burnes' start on Wednesday in which he went 7 IP 3 ER was just a typical Alexander start (despite the fact that Alexander hasn't had a better start all season), so I guess it's a losing battle. But, yes, great example!

[willie key]

8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

But you started off by talking about the pitchers being disappointing on the whole season, when Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in the league again this year. He had a few rough starts in the last month or so, but you're going to get stretches like that with literally every other elite pitcher in the game. 

Again, I'll repeat that the reason why our pitching hasn't produced like they did last year is because of the injuries to the big guys and the fact that we've had to give innings to Gonzalez, Alexander, etc. in their place. 

The pitchers were actually awesome to begin the year.    Like lauer but those days are way gone.    I mean is Alexander really any worse than Ashby or houser.     He’s really  isn’t this year

the bullpen has definitely been worse    Like way worse

 

theyve settled into middle of the pack road which is pretty overrated for how people talk about them 

[willie key]

8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

He's the same guy that thinks that Burnes' start on Wednesday in which he went 7 IP 3 ER was just a typical Alexander start (despite the fact that Alexander hasn't had a better start all season), so I guess it's a losing battle. But, yes, great example!

Alexander has had some decent starts at least three giving up only 1 run or so and his first start was technically better than burnes yesterday.      
 

No one is arguing that burnes and Alexander are the same pitcher.    Not even in the same stratosphere  (to be honest I don’t even know how you get to some of these tangents)    Its actually quite entertaining 

but burnes is rocking about a 4 and half era for two months now.   That is pretty Alexander like.    

[wiguy94]

37 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in the league again this season. Not quite as dominant as he was last year, but still really good. He had a rough three start stretch in late August to early-September, but what pitcher on earth is immune from those types of rough patches? 

The real problem is that due to injuries we've had to give innings to guys like Chi Chi Gonzalez, Jason Alexander, Trevor Kelley, etc. where we didn't have to last year. 

Burnes went from being the best SP in baseball the last two years (other than deGrom but not counting him because of lack of innings) to like a top 15 SP this year. He's 15th in ERA and 14th in FIP this year compared to 1st in both over the previous two years. That's a pretty substantial fall of for him.

 

The injuries have absolutely hurt, but the whole staff has regressed so it isn't just the injuries to blame.

Here is a SP comparison between 2021 and 2022.

Burnes ERA+ 170 to 134 (36 point drop)

Woodruff ERA+ 161 to 117 (44 point drop)

Freddy ERA+ 147 to 116 (31 point drop)

Houser ERA+ 128 to 86 (42 point drop...and will be more after this start tonight)

Lauer ERA+ 130 to 102 (28 point drop)

Brett Anderson ERA+ 98 to Ashby ERA+ 87 (11 point drop)

That's a cumulative ERA+ drop of 192 points from our 6 SP last year to our 6 SP this year. Obviously you would expect some regression after last year but nobody could have planned for this. In 2021 those 6 SP also started in 155 of our 162 games. This year those 6 SP have started 129 of our 144 games. 

[wiguy94]

33 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Mitchell has gotten off to a slow start, and there's a lot more swing & miss in his game than there will be down the road, but despite that they've already been able to clip a couple coupons off him--the big HR his 1st weekend & now tonite. Very impressed with some of his ABs this evening.

Mitchell after tonight has a 72 wRC+ while also having the 5th best WPA (winning probability added) among the position players. He has been very Orlando Arcia'n with his struggles at the plate seemingly no longer appearing in the biggest moments. 

[Brewcrew82]

10 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Burnes went from being the best SP in baseball the last two years (other than deGrom but not counting him because of lack of innings) to like a top 15 SP this year. He's 15th in ERA and 14th in FIP this year compared to 1st in both over the previous two years. That's a pretty substantial fall of for him.

 

The injuries have absolutely hurt, but the whole staff has regressed so it isn't just the injuries to blame.

Here is a SP comparison between 2021 and 2022.

Burnes ERA+ 170 to 134 (36 point drop)

Woodruff ERA+ 161 to 117 (44 point drop)

Freddy ERA+ 147 to 116 (31 point drop)

Houser ERA+ 128 to 86 (42 point drop...and will be more after this start tonight)

Lauer ERA+ 130 to 102 (28 point drop)

Brett Anderson ERA+ 98 to Ashby ERA+ 87 (11 point drop)

That's a cumulative ERA+ drop of 192 points from our 6 SP last year to our 6 SP this year. Obviously you would expect some regression after last year but nobody could have planned for this. In 2021 those 6 SP also started in 155 of our 162 games. This year those 6 SP have started 129 of our 144 games. 

His FIP is higher due to the higher HR rate this year, which pitchers honestly don't have that much control over from year to year. By advanced stats like xFIP, K-BB%, SIERA he's still easily been top 10 in MLB. 

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

His FIP is higher due to the higher HR late this year, which pitchers honestly don't have that much control over from year to tear. By advanced stats like xFIP and SIERA he's still easily been top 10.

First off xFIP and SIERA really shouldn't be used to evaluate current production. They are both tools best used as predictors than as evaluators like ERA+ and FIP. (Going Deep: The Relative Value of FIP, xFIP and SIERA - Pitcher List). Also Burnes has definitely fallen off in both xFIP and SIERA this year as well. From 2020 to 2021 Burnes was 1st in both xFIP and SIERA. His xFIP was 2.48 and the next closest was Cole at 3.06. His SIERA was 2.76 and the next closes was Cole at 3.01. This year Burnes xFIP and SIERA are 2.96 and 2.94 which are very far behind the leaders at 2.31 and 2.54

[Brewcrew82]

14 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

First off xFIP and SIERA really shouldn't be used to evaluate current production. They are both tools best used as predictors than as evaluators like ERA+ and FIP. (Going Deep: The Relative Value of FIP, xFIP and SIERA - Pitcher List). Also Burnes has definitely fallen off in both xFIP and SIERA this year as well. From 2020 to 2021 Burnes was 1st in both xFIP and SIERA. His xFIP was 2.48 and the next closest was Cole at 3.06. His SIERA was 2.76 and the next closes was Cole at 3.01. This year Burnes xFIP and SIERA are 2.96 and 2.94 which are very far behind the leaders at 2.31 and 2.54

Never said he hadn't fallen off some from last year. Last year, he was historically dominant despite a limited number of innings due to the pandemic. But he was never going to maintain that minuscule HR rate which is why his FIP (and other numbers) are higher this year. Even so, he's still easily been a top 10 pitcher in the league. ERA and FIP are just about the worst tools for evaluating pitcher performance and quality, especially when we have so many other metrics nowadays. 

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Never said he hadn't fallen off some from last year. Last year, he was historically dominant despite a limited number of innings due to the pandemic. But he was never going to maintain that minuscule HR rate which is why his FIP (and other numbers are higher this year). Even so, he's still easily been a top 10 pitcher in the league. ERA and FIP are just about the worst tools for evaluating pitcher performance and quality, especially when we have so many other metrics nowadays. 

What metrics do you want to use? Among pitchers with at least 200 balls in play (to filter out RP) Burnes is 19th in xwOBA and 24th in wOBA compared to being 1st in both last year. Burnes is 14th in K%-BB% this year after being 1st last year. I'm not sure he has been a top 10 SP in baseball this year. If you can find some metrics that put him top 10 I would love to see them, but I can't seem to find them. He's still a very good SP but going from by far the best SP in the game to fringe top 10 SP is a huge falloff and his falloff has been less dramatic than pretty much the entire rest of our pitching staff.

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, The stache said:

No, they haven’t.

Woodruff went to the DL after fighting through injury to his pitching hand that severely curtailed his effectiveness. An issue with his finger(s).

Since he returned on June 28th, he’s gone 5-1 with a 2.69 ERA, and 99 strikeouts in 83 2/3 innings. 

Last year he had a 2.56 ERA. This year it's 3.39.  
You're just trying to be contrary.

 

[AKCheesehead]

deleted misquote

[AKCheesehead]

4 hours ago, bulldogboy0733 said:

Lazy bunt attempt there. Come on man.

I assume you were talking about that Wong AB.  For a moment after I saw it I wondered if Wong intentionally fouled it to get a strike and get the bunt sign gone.  But it couldn't have been that, could it?  He sure didn't bother much effort pulling the bat back though.

[edfunderburk]

13 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I thought you gave up on the season  

I don’t think the Brewers have a good team … at all

I’ve been quiet on this forum because so many complain when comments aren’t positive

It seems honest observations aren’t welcome - so I’ve watched & groaned as I’ve done all season with very few posts in September

Losing starting pitchers during this home stretch could be the death knell for this mediocre team

It’s hard to “take a bite out of an apple” when you are missing so many teeth 

So … Have I given up on the season? No - but my expectations are very low … I want the Brewers to win & get in the playoffs, but I don’t expect that to happen

[Brewcrew82]

18 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

What metrics do you want to use? Among pitchers with at least 200 balls in play (to filter out RP) Burnes is 19th in xwOBA and 24th in wOBA compared to being 1st in both last year. Burnes is 14th in K%-BB% this year after being 1st last year. I'm not sure he has been a top 10 SP in baseball this year. If you can find some metrics that put him top 10 I would love to see them, but I can't seem to find them. He's still a very good SP but going from by far the best SP in the game to fringe top 10 SP is a huge falloff and his falloff has been less dramatic than pretty much the entire rest of our pitching staff.

I'm talking about qualified starters @wiguy94, which makes the most sense to compare Corbin to since those are his peers.. 6th in xFIP, 6th in K-BB%, 5th in SIERA, 1st in Whiff%, 2nd in CSW%, and so forth (also 1st in WARP FWIW). All stats which separate the pitchers who may be overachieving in terms of ERA and FIP from the pitchers who are actually that good. Hence, pretty easily a top 10 pitcher this season.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'm talking about qualified starters @wiguy94, which makes the most sense to compare Corbin to since those are his peers.. 6th in xFIP, 6th in K-BB%, 5th in SIERA, 1st in Whiff%, 2nd in CSW%, and so forth (also 1st in WARP FWIW). All stats which separate the pitchers who may be overachieving in terms of ERA and FIP from the pitchers who are actually that good. Hence, pretty easily a top 10 pitcher this season.

Again xFIP and SIERA should not be used to evuluate current performance. I can't take your opinions seriously when you continue to use them despite me showing you why they shouldn't be used.

[Brewcrew82]

27 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Again xFIP and SIERA should not be used to evuluate current performance. I can't take your opinions seriously when you continue to use them despite me showing you why they shouldn't be used.

I could say the same for you using ERA in 2022, Mr. "I just got here but I already know more than everybody else". And I've read the article. It does recognize that that xFIP and SIERA are more predictive stats, but it also doesn't say that they shouldn't be used in evaluating performance. In fact, one of the reasons why they are so useful is because they remove from consideration things that are out of a pitcher's control, like a higher than league average HR/FB rate which is responsible for a lot of Burnes' increase in ERA and FIP this year. Even then, I provided you more than just xFIP and SIERA, like K-BB%, CSW%, etc.. But you do you....

[wiguy94]

11 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I could say the same for you using ERA in 2022, Mr. "I just got here but I already know more than everybody else". And I've read the article. It does recognize that that xFIP and SIERA are more predictive stats, but it also doesn't say that they shouldn't be used in evaluating performance. In fact, one of the reasons why they are so useful is because they remove from consideration things that are out of a pitcher's control, like a higher than league average HR/FB rate which is responsible for a lot of Burnes' increase in ERA and FIP this year. Even then, I provided you more than just xFIP and SIERA, like K-BB%, CSW%, etc.. But you do you....

I mean you are arguing that Burnes has been a top 10 SP this season with stats that are predictive stats not evaluative stats (That article went over FIP being much better in evaluating current performance than xFIP and SIERA)??? 

 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

I mean you are arguing that Burnes has been a top 10 SP this season with stats that are predictive stats not evaluative stats (That article went over FIP being much better in evaluating current performance than xFIP and SIERA)??? 

 

And K-BB%, CSW%, etc. is not evaluative???? FIP is fine, but again it doesn't give you the full picture because it says nothing about Burnes' higher than league average HR/FB rate. xFIP does.