Article: Predicting Roster Moves for Brewers in Arbitration Years

[Robocaller]

14 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I disagree. The Brewers need to be pushing the envelope for an extension from at least one of their aces. As we have seen this postseason, you need those types of pitchers to effectively compete for a World Series. Yet, they are in rare supply and are particularly hard to develop. If the Brewers hope to capitalize on this next wave of position player talent headlined by Chourio, they will need to retain one of those guys to anchor the rotation (probably Woodruff). 

Burnes is the one they should open the bank for. I don't think it will happen, but if we truly believe: "you need those types of pitchers to effectively compete for a World Series. Yet, they are in rare supply and are particularly hard to develop." Burnes is the one to target. A top 3 SP, not a top 15 SP.

But if our position player prospects hit, we might not need 3 top 25 SP to win.

 

[Robocaller]

14 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I disagree. The Brewers need to be pushing the envelope for an extension from at least one of their aces. As we have seen this postseason, you need those types of pitchers to effectively compete for a World Series. Yet, they are in rare supply and are particularly hard to develop. If the Brewers hope to capitalize on this next wave of position player talent headlined by Chourio, they will need to retain one of those guys to anchor the rotation (probably Woodruff). 

Burnes is the one they should open the bank for. I don't think it will happen, but if we truly believe: "you need those types of pitchers to effectively compete for a World Series. Yet, they are in rare supply and are particularly hard to develop." Burnes is the one to target. A top 3 SP, not a top 15 SP.

But if our position player prospects hit, we might not need 3 top 25 SP to win.

 

[Robocaller]

4 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

In September, Adames slashed: .274/.339/.496. That's in line with his 2021 season, as opposed to the rest of this past season where he mostly hit in the low 200s with a sub .300 OBP. That's what I'm talking about when I question which player we're going to get moving forward. It would be to our detriment as a franchise if it's the low 200 BA/sub .300 OBP player whose defense will eventually decline as he ages throughout an extension. But if it's the 2021/September 2022 player, then you're looking at a 5-7 WAR guy in the first few years who will still hit enough to offset the inevitable defensive decline in the later years. That's definitely someone worth extending. 

Now, you may be right in that his lower batting line this year was the result of an abnormally low BABIP. But I would rather wait into next season to find out for sure, as opposed to rushing into an extension this offseason only to learn that 2021 was the high point as far as his bat is concerned. And if during this offseason, a team like the Dodgers were to inquire as to his availability, I would seriously consider it depending on the package. 

You answered your own concerns. Look at his #s when his BABIP was .300+ (August-October). That's the true Adames.

If anything, I think an extension would be a good case of buying low. OTOH, Turang needs to be given a chance to be our long-term SS.

 

[Robocaller]

4 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

In September, Adames slashed: .274/.339/.496. That's in line with his 2021 season, as opposed to the rest of this past season where he mostly hit in the low 200s with a sub .300 OBP. That's what I'm talking about when I question which player we're going to get moving forward. It would be to our detriment as a franchise if it's the low 200 BA/sub .300 OBP player whose defense will eventually decline as he ages throughout an extension. But if it's the 2021/September 2022 player, then you're looking at a 5-7 WAR guy in the first few years who will still hit enough to offset the inevitable defensive decline in the later years. That's definitely someone worth extending. 

Now, you may be right in that his lower batting line this year was the result of an abnormally low BABIP. But I would rather wait into next season to find out for sure, as opposed to rushing into an extension this offseason only to learn that 2021 was the high point as far as his bat is concerned. And if during this offseason, a team like the Dodgers were to inquire as to his availability, I would seriously consider it depending on the package. 

You answered your own concerns. Look at his #s when his BABIP was .300+ (August-October). That's the true Adames.

If anything, I think an extension would be a good case of buying low. OTOH, Turang needs to be given a chance to be our long-term SS.

 

[UpandIn]

20 hours ago, Robocaller said:

You answered your own concerns. Look at his #s when his BABIP was .300+ (August-October). That's the true Adames.

If anything, I think an extension would be a good case of buying low. OTOH, Turang needs to be given a chance to be our long-term SS.

 

I think if you extended Adames long term, he'd likely be far more inclined to slide over and play 3rd. 3B should become even more important of a position defensively with the new shift rules. The SS is still going to be playing right behind 2B and the 3B closer to where the SS plays when they're straight up. 

The problem...while I do think he's more of the 2021 slash line when the BABIP is normalized, position players like Adames tend to get much longer deals. 8 years would be my guess at this point...whereas pitchers are generally a bit shorter. I'd give Willy a f ~5/80, see how it goes(but I'd also offer Burnes and then Woodruff deals first). 

See how they all turn out. If you could get Burnes, then you let the season playout, see where you're at with the other two. More likely than not, it'd be Woody or Adames...and at least you'd get a massive return for the first two.

[UpandIn]

20 hours ago, Robocaller said:

You answered your own concerns. Look at his #s when his BABIP was .300+ (August-October). That's the true Adames.

If anything, I think an extension would be a good case of buying low. OTOH, Turang needs to be given a chance to be our long-term SS.

 

I think if you extended Adames long term, he'd likely be far more inclined to slide over and play 3rd. 3B should become even more important of a position defensively with the new shift rules. The SS is still going to be playing right behind 2B and the 3B closer to where the SS plays when they're straight up. 

The problem...while I do think he's more of the 2021 slash line when the BABIP is normalized, position players like Adames tend to get much longer deals. 8 years would be my guess at this point...whereas pitchers are generally a bit shorter. I'd give Willy a f ~5/80, see how it goes(but I'd also offer Burnes and then Woodruff deals first). 

See how they all turn out. If you could get Burnes, then you let the season playout, see where you're at with the other two. More likely than not, it'd be Woody or Adames...and at least you'd get a massive return for the first two.

[wibadgers23]

A little over 6 hours to go until the deadline.  I think they end up non-tendering just a few guys - mainly bullpen arms like Gustave, Gott, etc.  I know he's a big clubhouse guy but it's probably in the team's best interest to move on from Suter.  Just seems silly to pay him $3 million or whatever he's projected to get.  The big surprises would be if they non-tendered Renfroe, Hiura or Houser.

[wibadgers23]

A little over 6 hours to go until the deadline.  I think they end up non-tendering just a few guys - mainly bullpen arms like Gustave, Gott, etc.  I know he's a big clubhouse guy but it's probably in the team's best interest to move on from Suter.  Just seems silly to pay him $3 million or whatever he's projected to get.  The big surprises would be if they non-tendered Renfroe, Hiura or Houser.

[wibadgers23]

Suter claimed off waivers by Colorado.  

[wibadgers23]

Suter claimed off waivers by Colorado.  

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

48 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

A little over 6 hours to go until the deadline.  I think they end up non-tendering just a few guys - mainly bullpen arms like Gustave, Gott, etc.  I know he's a big clubhouse guy but it's probably in the team's best interest to move on from Suter.  Just seems silly to pay him $3 million or whatever he's projected to get.  The big surprises would be if they non-tendered Renfroe, Hiura or Houser.

I don't think Hiura would be a surprise at all. A divorce is probably in both parties' best interests.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

48 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

A little over 6 hours to go until the deadline.  I think they end up non-tendering just a few guys - mainly bullpen arms like Gustave, Gott, etc.  I know he's a big clubhouse guy but it's probably in the team's best interest to move on from Suter.  Just seems silly to pay him $3 million or whatever he's projected to get.  The big surprises would be if they non-tendered Renfroe, Hiura or Houser.

I don't think Hiura would be a surprise at all. A divorce is probably in both parties' best interests.

[wibadgers23]

2 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I don't think Hiura would be a surprise at all. A divorce is probably in both parties' best interests.

Yeah I agree that a divorce is likely but I just figured they'd tender him a contract and then trade him for whatever they can get.

[wibadgers23]

2 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I don't think Hiura would be a surprise at all. A divorce is probably in both parties' best interests.

Yeah I agree that a divorce is likely but I just figured they'd tender him a contract and then trade him for whatever they can get.

[markedman5]

 

[markedman5]

 

[sveumrules]

Matt Bush and Brewers agree to $1.85M contract for 2023 per MLBTR.

[sveumrules]

Matt Bush and Brewers agree to $1.85M contract for 2023 per MLBTR.