Article: Is Now the Right Time to Trade Corbin Burnes?

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

How many innings did Mickey Lolich pitch in 1971?

Was it over 370 innings?

I had looked at a list of guys who led innings pitched. Either I missed that, or the list I looked at was inaccurate.

[Robocaller]

17 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

That is why overvaluing prospects isn’t the best way to build a roster. I seriously doubt that Henderson will be a top 10 MLB shortstop in the next 6 years.

Ah, I see you think he'll be a 3B. Quite possible.

 

[Robocaller]

17 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

That is why overvaluing prospects isn’t the best way to build a roster. I seriously doubt that Henderson will be a top 10 MLB shortstop in the next 6 years.

Ah, I see you think he'll be a 3B. Quite possible.

 

[wiguy94]

16 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

That is why overvaluing prospects isn’t the best way to build a roster. I seriously doubt that Henderson will be a top 10 MLB shortstop in the next 6 years.

Why do you seriously doubt that? He’s the unanimous number one prospect in baseball who had a 125 wRC+ in 130 MLB PA as a young 21 year old. 
 

 

[wiguy94]

16 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

That is why overvaluing prospects isn’t the best way to build a roster. I seriously doubt that Henderson will be a top 10 MLB shortstop in the next 6 years.

Why do you seriously doubt that? He’s the unanimous number one prospect in baseball who had a 125 wRC+ in 130 MLB PA as a young 21 year old. 
 

 

[Sixtolezcano]

1 minute ago, Robocaller said:

Ah, I see you think he'll be a 3B. Quite possible.

 

So where do you believe Henderson will be ranked (as a non-pitcher) in the next 6 years?

[Sixtolezcano]

1 minute ago, Robocaller said:

Ah, I see you think he'll be a 3B. Quite possible.

 

So where do you believe Henderson will be ranked (as a non-pitcher) in the next 6 years?

[Sixtolezcano]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Why do you seriously doubt that? He’s the unanimous number one prospect in baseball who had a 125 wRC+ in 130 MLB PA as a young 21 year old. 
 

 

What was Hiura’s wRC+ in his first MLB season? 139 with 348 PA.

[Sixtolezcano]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Why do you seriously doubt that? He’s the unanimous number one prospect in baseball who had a 125 wRC+ in 130 MLB PA as a young 21 year old. 
 

 

What was Hiura’s wRC+ in his first MLB season? 139 with 348 PA.

[UpandIn]

6 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

I had looked at a list of guys who led innings pitched. Either I missed that, or the list I looked at was inaccurate.

Musta missed it. 376 in '71 and 346 in '72. 

There were 6-7 seasons with pitchers throwing ~340+ innings in just a couple year stretch there. 

Burnes has 375 the last two years(the only years he's been over 59 IP). So...I stand behind the point. 

[UpandIn]

6 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

I had looked at a list of guys who led innings pitched. Either I missed that, or the list I looked at was inaccurate.

Musta missed it. 376 in '71 and 346 in '72. 

There were 6-7 seasons with pitchers throwing ~340+ innings in just a couple year stretch there. 

Burnes has 375 the last two years(the only years he's been over 59 IP). So...I stand behind the point. 

[UpandIn]

3 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

What was Hiura’s wRC+ in his first MLB season? 139 with 348 PA.

Every answer to why a prospect who's already produced at the MLB level cannot be, "but Hiura." 

Gunnar Henderson is the #1 or #2 prospect in baseball for a reason. 

What does Keston Hiura have to do with Gunnar Henderson? And what possible reason do you "seriously doubt," he'll be a top 10 SS in the next 6 years?

Also, Hiura was NEVER the prospect Henderson was. 

[UpandIn]

3 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

What was Hiura’s wRC+ in his first MLB season? 139 with 348 PA.

Every answer to why a prospect who's already produced at the MLB level cannot be, "but Hiura." 

Gunnar Henderson is the #1 or #2 prospect in baseball for a reason. 

What does Keston Hiura have to do with Gunnar Henderson? And what possible reason do you "seriously doubt," he'll be a top 10 SS in the next 6 years?

Also, Hiura was NEVER the prospect Henderson was. 

[Robocaller]

13 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

So where do you believe Henderson will be ranked (as a non-pitcher) in the next 6 years?

ranked by what? He shortly will lose his prospect rating as he accumulates ABs next year.

[Robocaller]

13 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

So where do you believe Henderson will be ranked (as a non-pitcher) in the next 6 years?

ranked by what? He shortly will lose his prospect rating as he accumulates ABs next year.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Sixtolezcano said:

What was Hiura’s wRC+ in his first MLB season? 139 with 348 PA.

Was Hiura the number one prospect in baseball?

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Sixtolezcano said:

What was Hiura’s wRC+ in his first MLB season? 139 with 348 PA.

Was Hiura the number one prospect in baseball?

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

BTW, the athletic came out with their projected salarires(it was Bowden, so...take it with the appropriate grain of salt, but I do think he's pretty accurate here). 

deGrom NYY-2/90M Player Option after Yr 1
Verlander 3/135(I swear, I'm not Jim Bowden...really, please believe me). 
Rodon was...5 for 144 IIRC. 
Edwin Diaz 4/65(that's insanely low IMO...I think he ends up at ~100M...which is an overpay). 
Kodai Senga 3/72
That's seems high to me. No posting fee, so that's good. But you're also taking quite a bit of risk. But he has ELECTRIC stuff. 
Eovaldi 4/90

That deGrom contract is interesting. The Verlander one is pretty LOL both in dollars and length. That Senga does seem pretty high, especially at those few years. And yeah, that Diaz number is less than what Liam Hendriks got.

How does Bowden even have a job at The Athletic? Honest question. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

BTW, the athletic came out with their projected salarires(it was Bowden, so...take it with the appropriate grain of salt, but I do think he's pretty accurate here). 

deGrom NYY-2/90M Player Option after Yr 1
Verlander 3/135(I swear, I'm not Jim Bowden...really, please believe me). 
Rodon was...5 for 144 IIRC. 
Edwin Diaz 4/65(that's insanely low IMO...I think he ends up at ~100M...which is an overpay). 
Kodai Senga 3/72
That's seems high to me. No posting fee, so that's good. But you're also taking quite a bit of risk. But he has ELECTRIC stuff. 
Eovaldi 4/90

That deGrom contract is interesting. The Verlander one is pretty LOL both in dollars and length. That Senga does seem pretty high, especially at those few years. And yeah, that Diaz number is less than what Liam Hendriks got.

How does Bowden even have a job at The Athletic? Honest question. 

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

That deGrom contract is interesting. The Verlander one is pretty LOL both in dollars and length. That Senga does seem pretty high, especially at those few years. And yeah, that Diaz number is less than what Liam Hendriks got.

How does Bowden even have a job at The Athletic? Honest question. 

Cause he failed so totally at being a GM that he had no place else to run. 

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

That deGrom contract is interesting. The Verlander one is pretty LOL both in dollars and length. That Senga does seem pretty high, especially at those few years. And yeah, that Diaz number is less than what Liam Hendriks got.

How does Bowden even have a job at The Athletic? Honest question. 

Cause he failed so totally at being a GM that he had no place else to run. 

[Sixtolezcano]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

Every answer to why a prospect who's already produced at the MLB level cannot be, "but Hiura." 

Gunnar Henderson is the #1 or #2 prospect in baseball for a reason. 

What does Keston Hiura have to do with Gunnar Henderson? And what possible reason do you "seriously doubt," he'll be a top 10 SS in the next 6 years?

Also, Hiura was NEVER the prospect Henderson was. 

Obviously I brought up Hiura due to your “125 wRC+in a 130 PA” comment in a previous post.  Anyone can manipulate stats with a small sample size of 130 PA. The fact is neither you nor I have any idea what Henderson will accomplish in his career. I would rather have a much more certain player like a Cy Young winner in Burns at a much more valuable position than a prospect like Henderson who you stated with a minimum of 130 PA. Pay attention please.

[Sixtolezcano]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

Every answer to why a prospect who's already produced at the MLB level cannot be, "but Hiura." 

Gunnar Henderson is the #1 or #2 prospect in baseball for a reason. 

What does Keston Hiura have to do with Gunnar Henderson? And what possible reason do you "seriously doubt," he'll be a top 10 SS in the next 6 years?

Also, Hiura was NEVER the prospect Henderson was. 

Obviously I brought up Hiura due to your “125 wRC+in a 130 PA” comment in a previous post.  Anyone can manipulate stats with a small sample size of 130 PA. The fact is neither you nor I have any idea what Henderson will accomplish in his career. I would rather have a much more certain player like a Cy Young winner in Burns at a much more valuable position than a prospect like Henderson who you stated with a minimum of 130 PA. Pay attention please.

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

Obviously I brought up Hiura due to your “125 wRC+in a 130 PA” comment in a previous post.  Anyone can manipulate stats with a small sample size of 130 PA. The fact is neither you nor I have any idea what Henderson will accomplish in his career. I would rather have a much more certain player like a Cy Young winner in Burns at a much more valuable position than a prospect like Henderson who you stated with a minimum of 130 PA. Pay attention please.

Henderson is a franchise lynchpin for them alongside Rutschman. They have no reason to trade 6 years of him, regardless of whether he becomes a shortstop or third baseman, for 2 years of Burnes, as elite as he is. Hence, why he's more valuable according to BTV. Prospect lists aren't just about talent, they're also about the likelihood of success, A #1 prospect such as Henderson is not just incredibly talented, but he's also extremely likely, moreso than other prospects, to fulfill his potential. 

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

Obviously I brought up Hiura due to your “125 wRC+in a 130 PA” comment in a previous post.  Anyone can manipulate stats with a small sample size of 130 PA. The fact is neither you nor I have any idea what Henderson will accomplish in his career. I would rather have a much more certain player like a Cy Young winner in Burns at a much more valuable position than a prospect like Henderson who you stated with a minimum of 130 PA. Pay attention please.

Henderson is a franchise lynchpin for them alongside Rutschman. They have no reason to trade 6 years of him, regardless of whether he becomes a shortstop or third baseman, for 2 years of Burnes, as elite as he is. Hence, why he's more valuable according to BTV. Prospect lists aren't just about talent, they're also about the likelihood of success, A #1 prospect such as Henderson is not just incredibly talented, but he's also extremely likely, moreso than other prospects, to fulfill his potential.