Burnes hires BorasCorp for representation

[Brewcrew82]

31 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

He's still got two full seasons to pitch, stay healthy, and maintain those rate stats before hitting free agency and potentially setting the market. I hope his dominance continues, but some regression is almost expected.

Burnes' two outright dominant seasons that have him at the top of that 3 year sample size for rate stats were the covid shortened season and the 2021 season in a 6 man rotation where his innings pitched were both limited.  2022 was a really good year with a higher innings load, but it wasn't "best pitcher in baseball" caliber.   Guessing if you'd include his 2019 stats and IP totals for a last 4 year sample size, Burnes might not look as deserving to set a free agent pitcher contract record.  However, if the next two seasons look more like 2021, then yes he will be setting the new pitching market.

With Burnes, you can’t include 2019 because that was pre-cutter. Entirely different pitcher since then. Teams won’t give a crap about that season, as they’re only interested in projecting the future.

His HR rate did regress last year from its incredible levels of 2020/2021, and was largely responsible for the .5 climb in his ERA. Assuming that returns to a mid level, he’s probably somewhere in between 2021-2022, which is still CY Young level. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

With Burnes, you can’t include 2019 because that was pre-cutter. Entirely different pitcher since then. Teams won’t give a crap about that season, as they’re only interested in projecting the future.

The exact same thing could be said two offseasons from now for Burnes' 2020 and 2021 seasons, depending on what he does in 2023 and 2024...he's been fantastic since he was shelled in 2019, but two full seasons is a looong time for a pitcher.

And teams can and should absolutely include pre-arbitration seasons (like 2019) in arbitration hearings as a way of establishing contract values.  Quite possibly part of what irked Burnes, but it wasn't made up out of thin air if looking at his whole body of work was part of the Brewers' case in the arbitration hearing. Obviously, a totally different animal in a few years when teams bid on him in free agency if he remains elite and healthy.

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

With Burnes, you can’t include 2019 because that was pre-cutter. Entirely different pitcher since then. Teams won’t give a crap about that season, as they’re only interested in projecting the future.

The exact same thing could be said two offseasons from now for Burnes' 2020 and 2021 seasons, depending on what he does in 2023 and 2024...he's been fantastic since he was shelled in 2019, but two full seasons is a looong time for a pitcher.

And teams can and should absolutely include pre-arbitration seasons (like 2019) in arbitration hearings as a way of establishing contract values.  Quite possibly part of what irked Burnes, but it wasn't made up out of thin air if looking at his whole body of work was part of the Brewers' case in the arbitration hearing. Obviously, a totally different animal in a few years when teams bid on him in free agency if he remains elite and healthy.

I was talking about teams that are interested in signing him as a FA….

[rickh150]

On 3/22/2023 at 12:19 PM, wibadgers23 said:

Or mid-season 2023 if the Brewers are even remotely out of it.

Or Literally any time…. We could be in first place with a 10 game lead.

[Pugger]

All I know is he will be dearly missed after this season.