Statcast data now public for AAA?

[wiguy94]

https://twitter.com/mike_petriello/status/1641882496772997121?s=46&t=WxiRs1N9LlZMKe6c0VtAlQ

Here’s a tweet from Mike Petriello that seems to be announcing that AAA statcast data will be publicly available on Savant. Hopefully the other minor leagues will now have this as well. 
 

This is a huge development for us prospect lovers!

[Spencer Michaelis]

As cool as the single game data is to have, it felt like we were still missing a lot, because they weren't aggregating the data for the season on BaseballSavant, luckily it looks like Prospects Live will be putting all of it together here!

https://www.prospectslive.com/2023-aaa-statcast-data

[Joseph Zarr]

Whoa. THIS is awesome. Thanks gents!

[Joseph Zarr]

Right off the bat, I see that LHP Clayton Andrews ripped off a 3066.5 rpm slider in his lone outing to date? If he could fine tune the Cutter, 4-Seam, Sinker mix we could really be onto something here. Obviously, it's quite early. It's one outing. He's coming off a recovery brief stint in 2022. Anywho, that slider is something to watch.

[Joseph Zarr]

Confirms what I saw from RHP Luis Contreras: MLB-caliber spin across all his pitches. Same for Cam Robinson though he will need to fine-tune his ongoing location issues, imho. Anyhow, thanks again. This is really fun. Will be quite lovely to follow-up post-Gasser outing. 

[Jake McKibbin]

Some stats based fun

 

The Clayton Andrews love is interesting, his slider in 12 Batted ball events has an average exit velocity of 46 mph, along with a 50% CSW and every ball hit on the ground

 

Ethan Small's Changeup has a 61.9% CSW rate.. i thought the slider was meant to be his pitch, yowza! That's with 57% of the change-ups being in-zone.

He also has the biggest rising action on the sounds, with 19.1 inches less vertical drop than expected, just a shame that almost 65% are out of the zone. Would be interesting if he took the Lauer approach and said "hit this meatball"

 

Bennett Sousa's fastball has a 46.7% CSW rate, but with the caveat of an average exit velocity of 98 mph

 

Lucas Erceg's change-up has as much horizontal movement as Adrian Houser's sinker, as well as having the fastest pitch in Nashville with his 96mph sinker

 

 

 

 

[wiguy94]

5 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Ethan Small's Changeup has a 61.9% CSW rate.. i thought the slider was meant to be his pitch, yowza! That's with 57% of the change-ups being in-zone.

 

 

 

 

Changeup has always been Small's best pitch. His inability to throw a quality third pitch (it was a slider) is part of the reason he is now in the pen with command issues obviously being the biggest reason.

[Joseph Zarr]

4 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Changeup has always been Small's best pitch. His inability to throw a quality third pitch (it was a slider) is part of the reason he is now in the pen with command issues obviously being the biggest reason.

Yuppers. We have a registered 6 of 106 pitches in the Statcast database qualifying as 'Slider'. That's, um, what we might call 'a dash of the ol' nickel curve. 

I would add to this, and I think you agree with me here, in addition to the lack of meaningful development of the slider and ongoing command woes what has been most puzzling about Small's early season is the confoundedness of his pitching mix and approach. One night, we see a bevy of heaters and a sprinkling of change-ups - occasionally, he burps out a relatively ineffective slider. The next night we see a bevy of change with a dash of heat. And, these inconsistent approaches seem to mimic the results: inconsistent. 

Post 2021, he's become a very puzzling player for me. I personally have him ranked right alongside RHP Cam Robinson in terms of readiness. At this stage, neither arm has demonstrated repeatability so far in 2023 and I would be extremely surprised if either men were called up at any point in the 2023 season.

[Joseph Zarr]

Let's juxtapose Small's relatively ineffective Slider development with, what I consider to be, one of the most MLB ready relief arms in Nashville in LHP Clayton Andrews.  He's given us 2x the offerings (12 total Andrews sliders thrown to 18 of his vintage change-up):

-3.3" Vertical Break
-9.4" Horizontal Break
2923.9 (!!) average Spin RPM
33.3% swinging K %
Average Exit Velocity of 46.1 mph off the bat

AND, he throws what I consider to be that already elite Change-Up. 

This is one of the more exciting developments for my viewing pleasure in 2023.

[jw5511986]

3 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Let's juxtapose Small's relatively ineffective Slider development with, what I consider to be, one of the most MLB ready relief arms in Nashville in LHP Clayton Andrews.  He's given us 2x the offerings (12 total Andrews sliders thrown to 18 of his vintage change-up):

-3.3" Vertical Break
-9.4" Horizontal Break
2923.9 (!!) average Spin RPM
33.3% swinging K %
Average Exit Velocity of 46.1 mph off the bat

AND, he throws what I consider to be that already elite Change-Up. 

This is one of the more exciting developments for my viewing pleasure in 2023.

Any viability to piggy back Andrews with someone at MKE in your mind? With ongoing injuries I wonder if it would be feasible to get 3-4 inning starts out of him short term?

[Joseph Zarr]

52 minutes ago, jw5511986 said:

Any viability to piggy back Andrews with someone at MKE in your mind? With ongoing injuries I wonder if it would be feasible to get 3-4 inning starts out of him short term?

Yeah, that's not probably not all that likely. It's very early in the season. I imagine the decision-makers are very aware of his progress and would like to see him accumulate more innings to get even further away from the TJ procedure of 2021. He's really a one inning guy at present. But, it is typically a fabulous inning in 2023. He's a really nice depth piece to have in the pipeline, however. He's been really good.

[Jake McKibbin]

Keston Hiura's stats make for interesting reading

 

Average exit velo 86.2mph

Whiff Rate 33% (40% in majors last season)

Chase rate 20% (was 29% in majors)

Hard Hit rate just 30.4%

 

This guy needs more time in AAA

[wiguy94]

7 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Keston Hiura's stats make for interesting reading

 

Average exit velo 86.2mph

Whiff Rate 33% (40% in majors last season)

Chase rate 20% (was 29% in majors)

Hard Hit rate just 30.4%

 

This guy needs more time in AAA

They haven't updated that prospect live site in some time so I don't think those numbers are up to date. 

For example it has Ethan Small with 115 pitches thrown this season. When he's thrown 190 pitches. Seems like they are missing about 2 weeks worth of data.

[Jake McKibbin]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

They haven't updated that prospect live site in some time so I don't think those numbers are up to date. 

For example it has Ethan Small with 115 pitches thrown this season. When he's thrown 190 pitches. Seems like they are missing about 2 weeks worth of data.

Maybe so, but there's still a sizeable enough number of BBE's and it's not like he wasn't hitting homers two weeks ago. Just something that stands out that he maybe hasn't changed too much just yet

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Maybe so, but there's still a sizeable enough number of BBE's and it's not like he wasn't hitting homers two weeks ago. Just something that stands out that he maybe hasn't changed too much just yet

He also struck out only 16% of the time in the last week so those whiff and chase numbers are likely not accurate.